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Explaining Non-Negative Duration Dependence Among the Unemployed

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  • Pieter Serneels

Abstract

We investigate why we observe non-negative duration dependence among young unemployed men in urban Ethiopia. Assuming that genuine duration dependence is negative, there are five explanations for a non-decreasing hazard: the presence of unemployment benefits, the existence of Active Labour Market Policies, the change in labour demand, segmentation of the labour market, and unemployment as a queuing phenomenon. We test each of these explanations and find that labour market segmentation is the only convincing one. We also establish that genuine duration dependence is indeed negative in the long run.

Suggested Citation

  • Pieter Serneels, 2002. "Explaining Non-Negative Duration Dependence Among the Unemployed," CSAE Working Paper Series 2002-13, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    • Handle: RePEc:csa:wpaper:2002-13
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    Cited by:

    1. D. O'Neill & Sweetman. O. & Van de gaer D., 2005. "The Consequences of Non-Classical Measurement Error for Distributional Analysis," Economics Department Working Paper Series n1490205, Department of Economics, National University of Ireland - Maynooth.
    2. O'Neill, Donal & Sweetman, Olive, 2012. "The Consequences of Measurement Error when Estimating the Impact of BMI on Labour Market Outcomes," IZA Discussion Papers 7008, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Cecil Mlatsheni & Murray Leibbrandt, 2015. "Duration of unemployment in youth transitions from schooling to work in Cape Town," SALDRU Working Papers 159, Southern Africa Labour and Development Research Unit, University of Cape Town.
    4. Pieter Serneels, 2007. "The Nature of Unemployment among Young Men in Urban Ethiopia," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(1), pages 170-186, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    unemployment; duration; segmented labour markets; urban labour market;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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