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Believe me when I say green! Heterogeneous expectations and climate policy uncertainty

Author

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  • Campiglio, Emanuele
  • Lamperti, Francesco
  • Terranova, Roberta

Abstract

We develop a dynamic model where heterogeneous firms take investment decisions depending on their beliefs on future carbon prices. A policy-maker announces a forward-looking carbon price schedule but can decide to default on its plans if perceived transition risks are high. We show that weak policy commitment, especially when combined with ambitious mitigation announcements, can trap the economy into a vicious circle of credibility loss, carbon-intensive investments and increasing risk perceptions, ultimately leading to a failure of the transition. The presence of behavioural frictions and heterogeneity - both in capital investment choices and in the assessment of the policy-maker's credibility - has strong non-linear effects on the transition dynamics and the emergence of ‘high-carbon traps’. We identify analytical conditions leading to a successful transition and provide a numerical application for the EU economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Campiglio, Emanuele & Lamperti, Francesco & Terranova, Roberta, 2024. "Believe me when I say green! Heterogeneous expectations and climate policy uncertainty," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 124234, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:124234
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    behavioural macroeconomics; beliefs; credibility; heterogeneous expectations; investment decision-making; low-carbon transition; policy uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

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