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A quantitative analysis of the evolution of the U.S. wage distribution, 1970-2000

Author

Listed:
  • Fatih Guvenen
  • Burhanettin Kuruscu

Abstract

In this paper, we construct a parsimonious overlapping-generations model of human capital accumulation and study its quantitative implications for the evolution of the U.S. wage distribution from 1970 to 2000. A key feature of the model is that individuals differ in their ability to accumulate human capital, which is the main source of wage inequality in this model. We examine the response of this model to skill-biased technical change (SBTC), which is modeled as an increase in the trend growth rate of the price of human capital starting in the early 1970s. The model displays behavior that is consistent with several important trends observed in the US data, including the rise in overall wage inequality; the fall and subsequent rise in the college premium, as well as the fact that this behavior was most pronounced for younger workers; the rise in within-group inequality; the stagnation in median wage growth; and the small rise in consumption inequality despite the large rise in wage inequality. We consider different scenarios regarding how individuals? expectations evolve during SBTC. Specifically, we study the case where individuals immediately realize the advent of SBTC (perfect foresight), and the case where they initially underestimate the future growth of the price of human capital (pessimistic priors), but learn the truth in a Bayesian fashion over time. Lack of perfect foresight appears to have little effect on the main results of the paper. Overall, the model shows promise for explaining a diverse set of wage distribution trends observed since the 1970s in a unifying human capital framework.

Suggested Citation

  • Fatih Guvenen & Burhanettin Kuruscu, . "A quantitative analysis of the evolution of the U.S. wage distribution, 1970-2000," Staff Report, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmsr:427
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    Cited by:

    1. Diego Restuccia & Guillaume Vandenbroucke, 2013. "The Evolution Of Education: A Macroeconomic Analysis," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 54(3), pages 915-936, August.
    2. Vogel, Edgar & Ludwig, Alexander & Börsch-Supan, Axel, 2017. "Aging and pension reform: extending the retirement age and human capital formation," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(1), pages 81-107, January.
    3. repec:mea:meawpa:12257 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Guido Matías Cortés & Manuel Hidalgo-Pérez, 2015. "Changes in the Return to Skills and the Variance of Unobserved Ability," Working Papers 15.15, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Economics.
    5. Kredler, Matthias, 2014. "Experience vs. obsolescence: A vintage-human-capital model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 709-739.
    6. Alexander Ludwig & Thomas Schelkle & Edgar Vogel, 2012. "Demographic Change, Human Capital and Welfare," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(1), pages 94-107, January.
    7. Anagnostopoulos, Alexis & Atesagaoglu, Orhan Erem & Carceles-Poveda, Eva, 2013. "Skill-biased technological change and homeownership," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 3012-3033.
    8. Julie L. Hotchkiss & Menbere Shiferaw, 2011. "Decomposing the education wage gap: everything but the kitchen sink," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 93(July), pages 243-272.
    9. Eberhard, Juan, 2012. "Immigration, Human Capital and the Welfare of Natives," MPRA Paper 37844, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Diego Restuccia & Guillaume Vandenbroucke, 2014. "Explaining Educational Attainment across Countries and over Time," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 17(4), pages 824-841, October.
    11. Fatih Guvenen & Michelle Rendall, 2015. "Women's Emancipation through Education: A Macroeconomic Analysis," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(4), pages 931-956, October.
    12. Michelle Rendall, 2011. "The Service Sector and Female Market Work: Europe vs US," 2011 Meeting Papers 778, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. Dhritman Bhattacharya & Nezih Guner & Gustavo Ventura, 2013. "Distortions, Endogenous Managerial Skills and Productivity Differences," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 16(1), pages 11-25, January.
    14. Audra J. Bowlus & Chris Robinson, 2012. "Human Capital Prices, Productivity, and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(7), pages 3483-3515, December.
    15. Youngmin Park & Youngki Shin & Lance Lochner, 2017. "Earnings Dynamics and Returns to Skills," 2017 Meeting Papers 166, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    16. repec:fip:fedreq:y:2011:i:3q:p:255-326:n:vol.97no.3 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Michelle Rendall & Fatih Guvenen, 2009. "Emancipation through Education," 2009 Meeting Papers 70, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    18. Hyeok Jeong & Yong Kim & Iourii Manovskii, 2015. "The Price of Experience," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(2), pages 784-815, February.
    19. Vasia Panousi & Ivan Vidangos & Giovanni Violante & Bradley Heim & Fatih Guvenen, 2010. "Idiosyncratic Income Risk Estimated From IRS Administrative Wage Data," 2010 Meeting Papers 108, Society for Economic Dynamics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Wages; Human capital; Consumption (Economics); Productivity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E25 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Aggregate Factor Income Distribution
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials

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