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The Macroeconomic Impact of Climate Change: Global vs. Local Temperature

Author

Listed:
  • Adrien Bilal
  • Diego R. Känzig

Abstract

This paper estimates that the macroeconomic damages from climate change are six times larger than previously thought. Exploiting natural global temperature variability, we find that 1°C warming reduces world GDP by 12%. Global temperature correlates strongly with extreme climatic events unlike country-level temperature used in previous work, explaining our larger estimate. We use this evidence to estimate damage functions in a neoclassical growth model. Business-as-usual warming implies a 29% present welfare loss and a Social Cost of Carbon of $1,065 per ton. These impacts suggest that unilateral decarbonization policy is cost-effective for large countries such as the United States.

Suggested Citation

  • Adrien Bilal & Diego R. Känzig, 2024. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Climate Change: Global vs. Local Temperature," NBER Working Papers 32450, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32450
    Note: EEE EFG ITI
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    Cited by:

    1. Kai Lessmann & Friedemann Gruner & Matthias Kalkuhl & Ottmar Edenhofer, 2024. "Emissions Trading with Clean-up Certificates: Deterring Mitigation or Increasing Ambition?," CESifo Working Paper Series 11167, CESifo.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • F18 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Environment
    • O44 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Environment and Growth
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth

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