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Property Insurance and Disaster Risk: New Evidence from Mortgage Escrow Data

Author

Listed:
  • Benjamin J. Keys
  • Philip Mulder

Abstract

We develop a new dataset to study homeowners insurance. Our data on over 47 million observations of households’ property insurance expenditures from 2014-2023 are inferred from mortgage escrow payments. First, we find a sharp 33% increase in average premiums from 2020 to 2023 (13% in real terms) that is highly uneven across geographies. This growth is associated with a stronger relationship between premiums and local disaster risk: A one standard-deviation increase in disaster risk is associated with $500 higher premiums in 2023, up from $300 in 2018. Second, using the rapid rise in reinsurance prices as a natural experiment, we show that the increase in the risk-to-premium gradient was largely caused by the pass-through of reinsurance costs. Third, we project that if the reinsurance shock persists, growing disaster risk will lead climate-exposed households to face $700 higher annual premiums by 2053. Our results highlight that prices in global reinsurance markets pass through to household budgets, and will ultimately drive the cost of rising climate risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Benjamin J. Keys & Philip Mulder, 2024. "Property Insurance and Disaster Risk: New Evidence from Mortgage Escrow Data," NBER Working Papers 32579, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32579
    Note: EEE PE
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies
    • G52 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance - - - Insurance
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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