CLIMATE STABILIZATION TARGETS
Emissions, Concentrations, and Impacts over Decades to Millennia
NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
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www.nap.edu
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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This study was supported by the The Energy Foundation under contract number G-0812-10616 and The Environmental Protection Agency under contract number EP10H001368. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the sponsors.
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National Research Council. 2011. Climate Stabilization Targets: Emissions, Concentrations, and Impacts over Decades to Millennia. Washington, DC: National Academies Press.
Copyright 2011 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.
COMMITTEE ON STABILIZATION TARGETS FOR ATMOSPHERIC GREENHOUSE GAS CONCENTRATIONS
SUSAN SOLOMON (Chair),
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, CO
DAVID BATTISTI,
University of Washington, Seattle, WA
SCOTT DONEY,
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA
KATHARINE HAYHOE,
Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX
ISAAC M. HELD,
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ
DENNIS P. LETTENMAIER,
University of Washington, Seattle, WA
DAVID LOBELL,
Stanford University, Stanford, CA
H. DAMON MATTHEWS,
Concordia University, Montreal, Quebec
RAYMOND PIERREHUMBERT,
University of Chicago, Chicago, IL
MARILYN RAPHAEL,
University of California, Los Angeles, CA
RICHARD RICHELS,
Electric Power Research Institute, Inc., Washington, DC
TERRY L. ROOT,
Stanford University, Stanford, CA
KONRAD STEFFEN,
University of Colorado, Boulder, CO
CLAUDIA TEBALDI,
Climate Central, Vancouver, British Columbia
GARY W. YOHE,
Wesleyan University, Middletown, CT
NRC Staff
TOBY WARDEN, Study Director
LAUREN BROWN, Research Associate
EDWARD DUNLEA, Senior Program Officer
DAVID REIDMILLER, Christine Mirzayan Science and Technology Fellow
SHELLY FREELAND, Senior Program Assistant
RICARDO PAYNE, Senior Program Assistant
DANIEL BEARRS, Senior Librarian
BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE
ANTONIO J. BUSALACCHI, JR. (Chair),
University of Maryland, College Park
ROSINA M. BIERBAUM,
University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
RICHARD CARBONE,
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO
WALTER F. DABBERDT,
Vaisala, Inc., Boulder, CO
KIRSTIN DOW,
University of South Carolina, Columbia
GREG S. FORBES,
The Weather Channel, Inc., Atlanta, GA
ISAAC HELD,
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, NJ
ARTHUR LEE,
Chevron Corporation, San Ramon, CA
RAYMOND T. PIERREHUMBERT,
University of Chicago, Illinois
KIMBERLY PRATHER,
Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA
KIRK R. SMITH,
University of California, Berkeley
JOHN T. SNOW,
University of Oklahoma, Norman
THOMAS H. VONDER HAAR,
Colorado State University/CIRA, Fort Collins
XUBIN ZENG,
University of Arizona, Tucson
Ex Officio Members
GERALD A. MEEHL,
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO
NRC Staff
CHRIS ELFRING, Director
EDWARD DUNLEA, Senior Program Officer
LAURIE GELLER, Senior Program Officer
IAN KRAUCUNAS, Senior Program Officer
MARTHA MCCONNELL, Program Officer
TOBY WARDEN, Program Officer
MAGGIE WALSER, Associate Program Officer
JOSEPH CASOLA, Postdoctoral Fellow
RITA GASKINS, Administrative Coordinator
KATIE WELLER, Research Associate
LAUREN BROWN, Research Associate
ROB GREENWAY, Program Associate
SHELLY FREELAND, Senior Program Assistant
Acknowledgments
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their participation in their review of this report:
Marcia Baker, University of Washington
Virginia Burkett, U.S. Geological Survey
William Easterling, Pennsylvania State University
Jay Gulledge, Pew Center on Global Climate Change
Prasad Kasibhatla, Duke University
Haroon Khesghi, ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Company
Jeffrey T. Kiehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
Corinne LeQuere, University of East Anglia
Gerald R. North, Texas A&M University
Matthias Ruth, University of Maryland
Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Robert E. Dickinson, The University of Texas at Austin, appointed by the Division on Earth and Life Studies, and George M. Hornberger, Vanderbilt University Institute for
Energy and Environment, appointed by the Report Review Committee, who were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.
The committee would like to thank the following individuals who offered direct input to the committee with meeting presentations and personal, phone, or email discussions, including: Todd J. Sanford, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and CIRES, Kirsten Zickfield, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Michael Eby, University of Victoria, Jonathan Patz, University of Wisconsin, Dan Cayan, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Joseph Goffman, Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works, Dan Reifsnyder, U.S. Department of State, Reto Knutti, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Jeffrey Kiehl, NCAR, Leon Clark, PNNL, Eric Steig, University of Washington, Nigel Arnell, University of Reading, Phil Mote, Oregon Climate Change Research Institute and Oregon Climate Services, Samuel Myers, Harvard University, and Andrew Weaver, Concordia University.