NEXT GENERATION EARTH
SYSTEM PREDICTION
STRATEGIES FOR SUBSEASONAL TO
SEASONAL FORECASTS
Committee on Developing a U.S. Research Agenda to
Advance Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasting
Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate
Ocean Studies Board
Division on Earth and Life Studies
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, DC
www.nap.edu
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS • 500 Fifth Street, NW • Washington, DC 20001
This study was supported by the Heising Simons Foundation under contract number 2014-72, the Office of Naval Research under contract number N00014-14-1-0194, and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration under contract number NNX08AB07G, with additional support from the National Academy of Sciences’ Arthur L. Day Fund. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project.
International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-38880-1
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-38880-5
Digital Object Identifier: 10.17226/21873
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Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Next Generation Earth System Prediction: Strategies for Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasts. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/21873.
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COMMITTEE ON DEVELOPING A U.S. RESEARCH AGENDA TO ADVANCE SUBSEASONAL TO SEASONAL FORECASTING
RAYMOND J. BAN (Chair), Ban and Associates, LLC, Marietta, GA
CECILIA M. BITZ, University of Washington, Seattle
ANDY BROWN, UK Met Office, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, UK
ERIC CHASSIGNET, Florida State University, Tallahassee
JOHN A. DUTTON, Prescient Weather Ltd., State College, PA
ROBERT HALLBERG, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ
ANKE KAMRATH, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO
DARYL KLEIST, University of Maryland, College Park
PIERRE F.J. LERMUSIAUX, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge
HAI LIN, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Dorval, Quebec
LAURA MYERS, University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa
JULIE PULLEN, Stevens Institute of Technology, Hoboken, NJ
SCOTT SANDGATHE, University of Washington, Seattle
MARK SHAFER, University of Oklahoma, Norman
DUANE WALISER, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA
CHIDONG ZHANG, University of Miami, FL
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Staff
EDWARD DUNLEA, Senior Program Officer
CLAUDIA MENGELT, Senior Program Officer
ALISON MACALADY, Associate Program Officer
SHELLY FREELAND, Financial Associate
ROB GREENWAY, Program Associate
BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE
A.R. RAVISHANKARA (Chair), Colorado State University, Fort Collins
GERALD A. MEEHL (Vice Chair), National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO
LANCE F. BOSART, University at Albany-SUNY, NY
MARK A. CANE, Columbia University, Palisades, NY
SHUYI S. CHEN, University of Miami, FL
HEIDI CULLEN, Climate Central, Princeton, NJ
PAMELA EMCH, Northrop Grumman Aerospace Systems, Redondo Beach, CA
ARLENE FIORE, Columbia University, Palisades, NY
WILLIAM B. GAIL, Global Weather Corporation, Boulder, CO
LISA GODDARD, Columbia University, Palisades, New York
MAURA HAGAN, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO
TERRI S. HOGUE, Colorado School of Mines, Golden
ANTHONY JANETOS, Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, MD
EVERETTE JOSEPH, University at Albany-SUNY, NY
RONALD “NICK” KEENER, JR., Duke Energy Corporation, Charlotte, NC
JOHN R. NORDGREN, The Climate Resilience Fund, Bainbridge Island, WA
JONATHAN OVERPECK, University of Arizona, Tucson
ARISTIDES A.N. PATRINOS, New York University, Brooklyn
S.T. RAO, North Carolina State University, Raleigh
DAVID A. ROBINSON, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, Piscataway
CLAUDIA TEBALDI, Climate Central, Princeton, NJ
Ocean Studies Board Liaison
DAVID HALPERN, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA
Polar Research Board Liaison
JENNIFER FRANCIS, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, Marion, MA
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Staff
AMANDA STAUDT, Director
EDWARD DUNLEA, Senior Program Officer
LAURIE GELLER, Program Director
KATHERINE THOMAS, Program Officer
LAUREN EVERETT, Program Officer
ALISON MACALADY, Associate Program Officer
AMANDA PURCELL, Associate Program Officer
ALEX MORGAN, Christine Mirzayan Fellow
RITA GASKINS, Administrative Coordinator
ROB GREENWAY, Program Associate
SHELLY FREELAND, Financial Associate
MICHAEL HUDSON, Senior Program Assistant
ERIN MARKOVICH, Program Assistant
OCEAN STUDIES BOARD
LARRY A. MAYER (Chair), University of New Hampshire, Durham
E. VIRGINIA ARMBRUST, University of Washington, Seattle
KEVIN R. ARRIGO, Stanford University, CA
CLAUDIA BENITEZ-NELSON, University of South Carolina, Columbia
RITA R. COLWELL, University of Maryland, College Park
SARAH W. COOKSEY, State of Delaware, Dover
CORTIS K. COOPER, Chevron Corporation, San Ramon, CA
JAMES A. ESTES, University of California, Santa Cruz
DAVID HALPERN, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA
PATRICK HEIMBACH, University of Texas, Austin
SUSAN E. HUMPHRIS, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA
BONNIE J. MCCAY, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ
S. BRADLEY MORAN, University of Alaska, Fairbanks
STEVEN A. MURAWSKI, University of South Florida, St. Petersburg
JOHN A. ORCUTT, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA
H. TUBA ÖZKAN-HALLER, Oregon State University, Corvallis
MARTIN D. SMITH, Duke University, Durham, NC
MARGARET SPRING, Monterey Bay Aquarium, Monterey, CA
DON WALSH, International Maritime Incorporated, Myrtle Point, OR
DOUGLAS WARTZOK, Florida International University, Miami
LISA D. WHITE, University of California, Berkeley and San Francisco State University
ROBERT S. WINOKUR, Michigan Tech Research Institute, Silver Spring, MD
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Staff
SUSAN ROBERTS, Director
CLAUDIA MENGELT, Senior Program Officer
STACEE KARRAS, Associate Program Officer
PAMELA LEWIS, Administrative Coordinator
PAYTON KULINA, Senior Program Assistant
SHUBHA BANSKOTA, Financial Associate
HEATHER COLEMAN, Postdoctoral Fellow
Acknowledgments
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report:
Gianpaolo Balsamo, European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting, Reading, UK
Julie Demuth, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO
Gregg A. Jacobs, Naval Research Laboratory, Stennis Space Center, MS
James L. Kinter III, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA
Randal Koster, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Greenbelt, MD
Douglas C. Marble, Metron Scientific Solutions, Inc., Reston, VA
Nadia Pinardi, University of Bologna, Italy
James G. Richman, Naval Research Laboratory, Corvallis, OR 97330
Andrew Robertson, Columbia University, Palisades, NY
Frederic Vitart, European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting, Reading, UK
John Wallace, University of Washington, Seattle
Robert Weller, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA
Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the report’s conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before the release. The review of this report was overseen by Robert E. Dickinson, University of Texas at Austin, and Marc Levy, Center for International Earth Sciences Information Network, Columbia University; they were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.
The committee would also like to thank numerous members of the community who provided input to the committee throughout the study process, including Robert Bertram, Julie Demuth, Lisa Dilling, Stephen Eckermann, Gina Eosco, Fern Gibbons, Sara
Gonzalez-Rothi Kronenthal, Jennifer Henderson, Paul Higgins, Wayne Higgins, William Hooke, Susan Jasko, Christopher R. Johnson, Jeanine Jones, James Kinter III, Benjamin Kirtman, Randal Koster, William Lapenta, Richard Loft, Rohit Mathur, Rebecca Morss, David Randall, Andrea Ray, Carolyn Reynolds, Suranjana Saha, Richard Stumpf, David Titley, and Huug Van den Dool.
Preface
Today, millions of people tune to their favorite TV meteorologist or check the newspaper or their smart phones to get the latest weather forecast. Knowing what the weather will likely be for the next few hours and the next several days has opened up incredible opportunities for society as a whole—for individuals making decisions about what they will do in their daily lives, for industry undertaking risk management activities, and for governments making critical life and property protection decisions.
What if there were similar uses of forecasts for 2 weeks, 3 weeks, or even 3 or 6 months from now? It is easy to envision the potential value of high-quality predictions 2 weeks to 12 months ahead for any number of industries—for example, energy, water resource management, and agriculture. There are undoubtedly potential benefits for other sectors that we cannot even imagine today. Even if such information never matches the level of confidence associated with tomorrow’s weather forecast, it could still be used by individuals, businesses, and governments to plan and make a large array of important decisions. In this study, the committee puts forward a vision that subseasonal to seasonal forecasts (S2S) (i.e., forecasts of environmental conditions made approximately 2 weeks to 12 months in advance) will be as widely used a decade from now as weather forecasts are today. The path to realizing this vision and its inherent value will require focused effort on S2S processes and predictions by both physical and social scientists. Today, this type of commitment largely exists on the weather timescale and on the scales in which climate change is expected. S2S falls in a “gap” between these two areas, and in general, has not received the same level of dedicated effort and support. This report presents research strategies for dealing with this “in-between” space over the next decade.
Although the overall quality and use of products in the S2S time frame have been growing over the past decade, increasing the predictive skill of coupled Earth system models in S2S forecast ranges will be essential to increasing the benefits for and expanding the number of end users of these products. The benefits of S2S forecasts will be further enhanced if the scope of operational S2S forecasts were extended beyond the traditional weather variables to include more Earth system variables and events. Opportunities for improvements and expansions to existing forecasts include, for example, enhanced predictions of the ocean state, sea ice fields, aerosols and air quality, and water management. A focus on developing better information on the likelihood of specific and disruptive environmental events, in addition to improving the skill of
currently available forecasts of temperature and precipitation anomalies, has great potential to further enhance the value of S2S predictions.
This report presents a research agenda that provides the framework for the physical and social sciences communities to collaboratively advance the skill, breadth, and value of S2S predictions. The committee held five in-person meetings between October 2014 and May 2015, and received broad and diverse input from experts in both physical and social sciences as well as from end users of S2S forecasts. We would like to thank all of those who provided their time and insight. The contributors are listed in the Acknowledgments section above. The committee is also greatly indebted to Study Directors Edward Dunlea and Claudia Mengelt and to Associate Program Officer Alison Macalady. This report would not have been possible without their tireless efforts and expert support. Finally, I would like to thank the committee members for their hard work and dedication to excellence. I particularly want to thank the committee for their patience with me as I learned so much from them. It was indeed a true pleasure to work with this talented group of professionals.
Raymond J. Ban, Chair
Committee on Developing a U.S. Research Agenda to
Advance Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasting
Contents
Vision and Research Strategies for the Next Decade
Recommended Elements of a Research Agenda
2 HISTORY AND CURRENT STATUS OF S2S FORECASTING
Evolution of the Forecast Enterprise
Current Status of Activities and Recent Progress
3 ENHANCING THE VALUE AND BENEFITS OF S2S FORECASTS
The Potential Value of S2S Forecasts to Decision-Makers
Challenges to the Use of S2S Predictions
Improving the Usability and Use of S2S Forecasts
Case Studies With Example Applications of S2S Forecasts
The Way Forward for Realizing the Potential of S2S Predictions
4 SOURCES OF SUBSEASONAL TO SEASONAL PREDICTABILITY
The Way Forward for Research on Sources of Predictability
5 S2S FORECAST SYSTEMS: CAPABILITIES, GAPS, AND POTENTIAL
Routine Observations and Their Use
Combination, Calibration, Verification, and Optimization of S2S Forecast Systems
6 INTERFACE BETWEEN RESEARCH AND OPERATIONS
Current Activities at the Interface of S2S Research and Operations
Challenges in Research to Operations and Operations to Research
Way Forward for Research to Operations
7 CYBERINFRASTRUCTURE AND WORKFORCE CAPACITY BUILDING
Building Capacity for S2S Cyberinfrastructure
Building Capacity in the S2S Modeling and Prediction Workforce
8 VISION AND WAY FORWARD FOR S2S EARTH SYSTEM PREDICTION
S2S Research Strategies and Recommendations
A Committee’s Statement of Task
B Details of Seasonal and Subseasonal Forecast Systems
Examples of Models Used by Operational Centers for Subseasonal and Seasonal Forecasting
C Past, Current, and Planned Major International Process Studies