Julio Morell

The northeast Caribbean as other insular regions lack reliable high-resolution weather forecast data of 10meter winds to serve as the engine of numerical ocean models targeting high resolution waves and currents forecasts for nearshore areas. This issue is exacerbated due to the complex orographic features of the Antilles, which govern topographic shadowing and incoming solar radiation fields responsible for the diurnally forced convection typical of tropical island weather. A solution to this problem is currently under evaluation for the CariCOOS region. This solution employs both dynamical numerical solvers of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, which are referred to as the ARW (Advanced Research WRF), and the NMM (Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model) cores. CariCOOS research and development efforts are executed in collaboration with the National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office San Juan (NWS WFO SJU). CariCOOS current operational WRF model setups are based on the NMM core at resolutions of 6-km, 2-km, and 1-km. These models target short and medium range forecast; the latest experimental WRF model setup is based on the ARW with resolutions of up to 500-m. The WRF-ARW setup is currently under evaluation to improve very-short-term weather forecast, in support of maritime operations of high-traffic ports and harbors (Bay of San Juan, PR, and Port of Yabucoa, PR). Noteworthy improvement have been achieved as evidenced by model skill assessments of forecasted wind speed, and wind direction of these WRF model setups when compared to in-situ observations of CariCOOS assets (land base weather stations and coastal buoys). The numerical weather prediction forecasting improvements realized via the implementation of both WRF dynamical cores are primarily driven by the increase in horizontal resolution. The most prominent improvements in weather forecasts is were achieved for the leeward side of Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands and harbor regions when simulated at very fine horizontal grid spacing resolution (less than 1-km). Considering forecast lead time requirements of the NWS WFO SJU, CariCOOS researchers constantly strive to optimize WRF model setups to its limit. Details of the various CariCOOS WRF model setups and implementations will be presented in this paper along with validation statistics.

Ocean acidification is changing surface water chemistry, but natural variability due to nearshore processes can mask its effects on ecosystem responses. We present an approach of quantitatively resolving net ecosystem metabolism from an array of long‐term time series stations, offering perhaps the longest record of such processes over a reef to date. We used 8 and 6 yr of in situ, high‐quality frequency observations to characterize the changes in dissolved inorganic carbon and oxygen in La Parguera, Puerto Rico and Cheeca Rocks, Florida, respectively. Net respiration and net dissolution are the dominant metabolic processes at both systems, with a narrow window of ~ 4 months under net calcification. The annual mean net ecosystem calcification (NEC) rates for La Parguera (−0.68 ± 0.91 kg CaCO3 m−2 yr−1) and Cheeca Rocks (−0.48 ± 0.89 kg CaCO3 m−2 yr−1) were on the lower end of typical NEC ranges determined for other reef areas using chemistry‐ and census‐based approaches. At Cheeca Ro...

CariCOOS has implemented a mirror run of the operational numerical weather prediction model employed by the National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office San Juan (NWS WFO SJU), which is based on the WRF NMM model. The model configuration consists of a one-way nesting of two domains with a horizontal resolution of 6-km and 2-km, respectively. CariCOOS developed a single domain configuration of the WRF NMM model having a finer horizontal spatial resolution of 1-km. These models, in general, are discrete approximations in space and time of a continuous geophysical medium being simulated. The solutions to these models are not an exact representation of reality. The goal is to keep track of the relative ability of a model to make accurate predictions. A real-time validation MATLAB® script, for numerical weather prediction (NWP), was developed to assist CariCOOS end-users in comparing the forecasts to actual data. The validation of these models was conducted by comparing in-situ wind observations (Oi), of CariCOOS observing network, with model forecast (Mi). Time histories plots of in-situ and modeled wind speed and direction are compared in real time; while also solving statistical algorithms with various validation parameters as outputs. The statistical parameters included in the real-time validation tool are: (i) the Pearson's moment correlation coefficient (r), (ii) mean bias (MB), (iii) mean absolute gross error (MAGE), (iv) root mean square error (RMSE), (v) Willmott index of agreement (IOA) and (vi) hit rate (HR). This useful real-time validation tool allows NWS WFO SJU forecasters and CariCOOS researchers to measure the skill of the model and quantify the error to determine future needs for modeling enhancements. The real-time validation framework developed facilitates CariCOOS researchers to set any validation date range, which can vary from days to months. The validation skill appraisal revealed noticeable improvement in the forecasting for both wind speed and direction by the WRF-1KM when compared to the WRF-2KM and the NWS National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) operational product. Typically the most improved locations are noticed for weather stations in regions surrounded by complex topographic features,, particularly the lee side of islands. These findings suggest that the 1-km model resolves better the local orographic forcing generated by the fine-scale topography, typical of the coastal meteorology of Caribbean islands. The improvement in forecasting 10-m winds is due to a better depiction of the 1-km resolution model of complex terrain. These findings may lead to better understanding of local convection process, which dominates the diurnal and nocturnal wind cycles of sea and land breeze, respectively.

Time series from open ocean fixed stations have robustly documented secular changes in carbonate chemistry and long‐term ocean acidification (OA) trends as a direct response to increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). However, few high‐frequency coastal carbon time series are available in reef systems, where most affected tropical marine organisms reside. Seasonal variations in carbonate chemistry at Cheeca Rocks (CR), Florida, and La Parguera (LP), Puerto Rico, are presented based on 8 and 10 years of continuous, high‐quality measurements, respectively. We synthesized and modeled carbonate chemistry to understand how physical and biological processes affect seasonal carbonate chemistry at both locations. The results showed that differences in biology and thermodynamic cycles between the two systems caused higher amplitudes at CR despite the shorter residence times relative to LP. Analyses based on oxygen and temperature‐normalized pCO2sw showed that temperature effects on pCO...

A detailed description of the Caribbean Coastal Ocean Observing System (CARICOOS) HF Radar network expansion agenda and Sargassum inundation forecasting asset is presented. These applications have become of high interest in the past couple of years and were highlighted in the last 5-year proposal submitted to the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS) office. Preliminary HF Radar radial data produced from two off-grid test sites along the northeast coast of Puerto Rico showed promise in terms of providing coverage for areas concerning stakeholder interest regarding sea lane activity. In addition to the radar network expansion, CARICOOS has made available Sargassum trajectory forecasts through the Sargassum Monitoring Project as a result of concerns regarding the increased frequency of Sargassum presence within the coastal waters of Puerto Rico. The current forecast model uses the output from The Naval Oceanographic Office American Seas (AMSEAS) model, however, inclusion of the regional Finite Volume Community Ocean Model (FVCOM) in combination with the Maximum Chlorophyll Index (MCI) provided by NOAA as sources for the CARICOOS Sargassum Tracker showed encouraging results for potential enhancing the forecast accuracy.

Microbial decomposition of particulate organic matter in sediments can substantially modulate eutrophication of nearshore marine environments. Flux budgets for nitrogen compounds and quantification of rates of microbial transformation can provide important information on the process of eutrophication. This survey documents sediment nitrogen budgets for a eutrophic nearshore marine environment at La Parguera on southwest coast of Puerto Rico, including consideration of the organic fraction in addition to microbial transformations.Sediments of the inshore channel at La Parguera denote the input of heavy organic loads with low redox potentials and high ammonium contents. Benthic fluxes of dissolved organic nitrogen are below those recorded for ammonium. These observations suggest that nearshore tropical sediments subject to heavy nitrogen loads act as a sink for organic nitrogen and that ammonification is a key process in the release of nitrogen from sediments to the water column. Nitrification and denitrification rates are low overall and inversely related to the redox potential. Depuration of excess nitrogen through denitrification is ineffective in these sediments. in contrast to more robust temperate environments, our work demonstrates that tropical marine systems are particularly susceptible to eutrophication given their limited capacity for depuration of excess nitrogen.

Fluxes of ammonium and nitrate plus nitrite between the sediment and the water column in a shallow tropical lagoon were computed using experimental incubations and theoretical calculations based on observed gradients. Rates computed by the two methods compared favourably ...

The discharge of the Orinoco River significantly affects the optical properties of the water in the Caribbean Sea by increasing primary productivity and introducing large amounts of colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) to the region. The optical characteristics of the ...

The Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas (SOCAT) is a synthesis activity by the international marine carbon research community (>100 contributors). SOCATv2019 has 25.7 million quality-controlled, surface ocean fCO2 (fugacity of carbon dioxide) observations from 1957 to 2019 for the global oceans and coastal seas. Calibrated sensor data are also available. Automation allows annual, public releases. SOCAT data is discoverable, accessible and citable. SOCAT enables quantification of the ocean carbon sink and ocean acidification and evaluation of ocean biogeochemical models. SOCAT represents a milestone in biogeochemical and climate research and in informing policy.This publication contains the individual cruise files that are new or updated from SOCATv6, with cruise QC flags A-E and all fCO2 WOCE flags. The synthesis file hosted in NOAA NCEI (see other version) contains A-D cruises and WOCE flag 2 (good) data. To download the SOCATv2019 data product in other formats or subsets, please go to www.socat.info.

Prior studies have shown that the Mona Passage and the shelf break along the SW coast of Puerto Rico are sites of internal wave generation and these waves have been partially characterized. Joint shipboard and glider-based observations have now allowed more detailed documentation of a tidally-induced internal wave train generated in the Mona Passage between Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Wave

Coherent sub-mesoscale features such as spiral eddies are known to be ubiquitous in the world's oceans. Yet, due to their complex geometry, they are often difficult to characterize. Sub-mesoscale ocean dynamics with characteristic dimensions on the order of kilometers have been found to play a major role in upper ocean stirring and mixing. Manifestations of these structures all around the Caribbean Coastal Ocean Observing System (CariCOOS) region have been found to influence coastal and oceanic waters impacting upper ocean hydrodynamics and biogeochemistry. CariCOOS modeling efforts in the region have yet to produce reliable forecasts of near coastal ocean dynamics. Owing to the growing demand for coastal ocean models yielding accurate forecast, CariCOOS has proposed the operational deployment of a 1/100 degree Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS) nested in the 1/36 degree resolution Navy Coastal Ocean Model (AMSEAS) which itself is nested in the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM), a global 1/12 degree data-assimilative hybrid isopycnal-sigma-pressure coordinates forecast system. Although the progression has been consistent, results urge the identification of possible skill performance constraints and phenomenological limitations. An inward approach has been adopted to assess the output of parent models versus observations from satellites, drifters, gliders, sea level measurements, buoys, and HF radars. Part of the adopted approach focuses on the characterization and daily-based detection of sub-mesoscale ocean dynamic features. CariCOOS observational assets and satellite imagery brings forth the ability to characterize quasi-permanent (or periodical) phenomena close to the coast. Thanks to the recent expansion of the CariCOOS High-Frequency (HF) radar network consisting of two long range (5 MHz) antennas on the southwestern coast of Puerto Rico, unprecedented spatial and temporal coverage will be available for this two-part study. For the first part, historical satellite altimetry, as well as other discrete observations, will be used to characterize the quasi-geostrophic mesoscale eddy signatures near the southwestern coast of Puerto Rico. On the second part, satellite imagery and HF radar capabilities to capture sub-mesoscale eddy phenomena will be assessed with the objective of implementing coherent structure detection algorithm based on a vector geometry method. A comparison between detected sub-mesoscale eddies with HF radars and available operational models (AMSEAS & HYCOM) will be qualitatively assessed.

Since the early ages tropical insular societies have lived on the oceans edge depending on it for essential functions ranging from transportation and nourishment to recreation. These services are also accompanied by the risk posed by hazardous winds, waves, currents, storm surge and tsunamis. In recent times coastal societies have also faced the risk of losing valuable services provided by the ocean due to anthropogenic disturbances. Technological and scientific advances have made possible to detect and even predict with reasonable accuracy almost all major threats coming from the ocean. Moreover, although the timing of events like tsunamis cannot be predicted their potential impact can be assessed. Under the US Integrated Ocean Observing System, the Caribbean Coastal Ocean Observing System (CariCOOS) faces the challenge to provide decision making support required for improving the safety of coastal communities and marine operations, enhance the economy through enhanced efficiency of the latter and by and protecting the environment. Major achievements toward the above goals include the deployment of data buoys and meteorological stations at representative areas and the operational implementation of high resolution wave and weather models capable of accurately filling observational gaps and providing accurate wind and wave and nearshore breaker height forecasts. A storm surge atlas is now in use by state and federal agencies. An assessment of the chronicity of sediment inputs to sensitive coral reefs, utilizing remote sensed ocean color data is available to resource managers. Below we discuss approaches and strategies followed implementing the system as well that to be followed for its further development.

A well-documented, publicly available, global data set of surface ocean carbon dioxide (CO2) parameters has been called for by international groups for nearly two decades. The Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas (SOCAT) project was initiated by the international marine carbon science community in 2007 with the aim of providing a comprehensive, publicly available, regularly updated, global data set of marine surface CO2, which had been subject to quality control (QC). Many additional CO2 data, not yet made public via the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), were retrieved from data originators, public websites and other data centres. All data were put in a uniform format following a strict protocol. Quality control was carried out according to clearly defined criteria. Regional specialists performed the quality control, using state-of-the-art web-based tools, specially developed for accomplishing this global team effort. SOCAT version 1.5 was made public in September 2011 and holds 6.3 million quality controlled surface CO2 data points from the global oceans and coastal seas, spanning four decades (1968-2007). Three types of data products are available: individual cruise files, a merged complete data set and gridded products. With the rapid expansion of marine CO2 data collection and the importance of quantifying net global oceanic CO2 uptake and its changes, sustained data synthesis and data access are priorities.

"From 1995 to 2000, daily integrated, water column phytoplankton primary production was estimated on a monthly basis at the CaTS (Caribbean Time-Series Station, 17°36’N, 67°00’W) using available algorithms that relate phytoplankton photosynthetic pigment biomass and available photosynthetic radiation (PAR). Average daily integrated primary production was between 132 and 750 mg C m-2 d-1. Annual production was 149 gC m-2 yr-1 and showed maxima in April, July, October and November. SeaWiFS derived chlorophyll-a concentrations for the Northeastern Caribbean Sea followed the same pattern. Increases in primary production were associated to large PBS (or PBm), alphaB and ā*ph values during maximum influence of Amazon and Orinoco River plume waters. High vertical diffusivity values, kd > 6 X 10-3 m-2s-1, were measured between SEP-DEC 1997 and MAY-OCT 2000 in oceanic waters of the Mona Passage. These elevated diffusivities are associated with the presence of locally generated internal waves of semidiurnal frequency, with a reduction of the Richardson number at the base of the pycnocline, and with increased coastal seiches activity over the southwest coast of Puerto Rico. The patterns of activity are strictly correlated with the lunar cycle and with changes in the stratification of the Caribbean Surface Water (CSW). Increases in the stratification of the water column are due to the influence of the Amazon and Orinoco Rivers. Under the proper astronomical forcing and vertical stratification conditions energy from the barotropic tide at or near the shelf break is transferred offshore towards the generation of internal tides and shoreward into the platform waters consequently increasing the coastal seiche activity. Internal tides of near semidiurnal frequencies were observed in the euphotic zone. The development of K-H instabilities during the breaking of the internal tide can explain the formation of high diffusivity patches. Inside the patches (kd > 0.004 m2 s-1) increments in primary productivity of the order of 0.05 mg C m-3 h-1 were measured. The patches generated a NO3 flux equal to 1.058 x 10-4 mmol m-2 s-1 and can sustain a new production equal to 724 mg C m-2 d-1 or 264 g C m-2 yr-1. Resumen La integración vertical a lo largo de todo el día, de la productividad primaria del fitoplancton se estimó mensualmente entre el 1995 y el 2000 en la estación serial del programa CaTS (Caribbean Time-Series Station, 17° 36’ N, 67° 00’ 0) usando los algoritmos disponibles que relacionan la biomasa fotosintética del fitoplancton y la irradianza disponible para fotosíntesis (PAR). La producción integrada promedio osciló entre 132 y 750 mg C m-2d-1. La producción anual es alrededor de 149 g C m-2 año-1 y muestra una distribución con máximos cerca de abril, julio, octubre y noviembre. Concentraciones de clorofila-a del Noreste del Mar Caribe determinadas por el teledetector satelital SeaWiFS imitan el mismo patrón. Aumentos en productividad primaria se asocian a valores altos de PBS (ó PBm), alfaB y ā*ph durante las épocas de mayor influencia de las aguas dispersas del Río Amazonas y Orinoco. Valores altos de difusividad vertical, kd > 6 X 10-3 m2s-1, se registraron entre septiembre y diciembre del 1997 y mayo y octubre del 2000 en aguas oceánicas del Canal de Mona. Estas difusividades altas están asociadas a la presencia de ondas internas de frecuencia semidiurna que se generan localmente en nuestras aguas, a la reducción en el número de Richardson y los aumentos en la actividad de seiches en la costa suroeste de Puerto Rico. Los patrones de alta actividad están estrictamente correlacionados con el ciclo lunar y con cambios en la estratificación del agua superficial del Caribe. Aumentos en la estratificación en la columna de agua se deben a la influencia del Río Amazonas y Orinoco. Bajo las condiciones astronómicas y de estratificación apropiadas, la energía de la marea barotrópica en y cerca del veril es transferida fuera de la costa para la generación de la marea interna y hacia las aguas de la plataforma insular provocando aumentos en la actividad de seiches costeros. El desarrollo de la inestabilidad K-H durante el rompimiento de la marea interna puede explicar la formación de parches de alta difusividad. Dentro de los parches (kd > 0.004 m2 s-1) se observaron aumentos en producción primaria del orden de 0.05 mg C m-3 h-1. Los parches generaron un flujo de NO3 igual a 1.058 x 10-4 mmol m-2 s-1 y que puede sostener una producción nueva de 724 mg C m-2 d-1 ó 264 g C m-2 año-1."

Every Atlantic Hurricane season since July 2014, an array of underwater gliders is deployed off Puerto Rico by NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) and the Caribbean Coastal Ocean Observing System (CARICOOS) as part of a multi-institutional effort. The goal of this work is to enhance our knowledge on the role of the ocean on the intensification of tropical cyclones (TC) in the Atlantic Ocean. Sustained and targeted upper-ocean profile observations from underwater gliders are carried out to assess the upper ocean response to hurricane force winds and to evaluate the impact of these observations on tropical cyclone intensity forecasts. Glider observations provide valuable data on the ocean’s thermal and haline structure prior to a storm’s arrival, during the storm, and after the storm has passed. Initial findings from this study have shown that assimilation of glider data into coupled tropical cyclone forecast models, specifically the Hurricane Weather Rese...

The Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas (SOCAT) is a synthesis activity by the international marine carbon research community (>100 contributors). SOCATv2019 has 25.7 million quality-controlled, surface ocean fCO2 (fugacity of carbon dioxide) observations from 1957 to 2019 for the global oceans and coastal seas. Calibrated sensor data are also available. Automation allows annual, public releases. SOCAT data is discoverable, accessible and citable. SOCAT enables quantification of the ocean carbon sink and ocean acidification and evaluation of ocean biogeochemical models. SOCAT represents a milestone in biogeochemical and climate research and in informing policy.This publication contains the individual cruise files that are new or updated from SOCATv6, with cruise QC flags A-E and all fCO2 WOCE flags. The synthesis file hosted in NOAA NCEI (see other version) contains A-D cruises and WOCE flag 2 (good) data. To download the SOCATv2019 data product in other formats or subsets, please go to www....