Some Private Forecasters Are Predicting A Major Energy Shortage in Less Than A Decade
Listener: 30 November, 1996.
Keywords: Environment & Resources;
Forecasting electricity is far from easy, as Electricity Supply and Demand to 2015 from the University of Canterbury Centre for Advanced Engineering makes clear. There are so many uncertainties: economic growth, the degree of energy conservation, the weather which affects the hydro lakes, what capacity will be built, the size of the Maui field supply of gas, and so on. Yet it seems there may well be a major energy shortfall after 2003 (and possibly earlier if there is a dry year which fails to fill the lakes). This is not just a one-off year of power cuts in a cold winter. The forecasters expect an ongoing shortage.
Wira Gardiner’s Return to Sender and some other books about the Maori
Listener 16 November, 1996.
Keywords: Maori
Hey, Pakeha. Ever been to a hui? You probably walked onto the marae at the back of the manuhiri. You were welcome, the Maori always make you very welcome on their marae, and they will feed you well. Later you sat quietly at the back.
The Cook Islands is in Crisis – its Economy Awaits Major Structural Change
Listener 2 November, 1996.
Keywords: Macroeconomics & Money
While “hitting the wall” is a phrase beloved by politicians and journalists, it is not a rigorous notion. If it means a crisis which is so drastic that there had to be major policy change, New Zealand did not hit the wall in 1984. There was a currency crisis, in which some people panicked, while others magnified it out of proportion to justify their policies and their grab for power. However the Cook Islands has not just had a currency crisis. It is facing the need for major structural change. Their economy might be said to be hitting the wall. In comparison, New Zealand’s was the bump of a dogem.
