Government's proposed election systems favor AK Party

There has long been pressure on the government to act and lift Turkey's 10 percent election threshold for political representation in Parliament. Erdoğan announced that the government will change the system and proposed two alternatives. These consist of keeping the threshold but narrowing down electoral regions to single-member constituencies, or pulling down the general threshold to 5 percent and narrowing down electoral regions to what might be called multi-member constitutions. He said a third way -- keeping the system as is -- is also an available option.

The opposition has voiced objections, and rightly so. Experts calculate that had the 2011 elections been held on the basis of a 5 percent threshold and single-constituency electoral region, the AK Party would have earned 50 more seats than it currently has. And if the elections were held on the basis of a multi-member zone, the party would have earned 15 more seats than it currently has. However, in both cases, the Republican People's Party (CHP) and the Peace and Democracy Party (BDP) would have gained more or less the same number of seats they currently have. But a new system is bad news for the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), which would have lost about 20 deputies in both systems.

Calculations by experts indicate that narrowing down electoral regions works in favor of large parties and against smaller parties. This is why, analysts believe, the government and the opposition are unlikely to agree on one of the proposed electoral systems.

The CHP and the BDP have long proposed pulling down the threshold to 3 percent without making any other changes to the election system. The MHP says it still needs time to make a proposal. If parties fail to reach agreement on a system, the AK Party is most likely to propose the multi-member constituency alternative that reduces the election threshold to 5 percent. A lower threshold works in favor of the BDP, but both the single-member and multi-member electoral region-based systems narrow the BDP's region to the predominantly Kurdish Southeast, leaving the party little chance to send representatives to Parliament from other regions.

According to the adjusted results based on the 2011 elections, the CHP would be the least affected party by any changes, positively or negatively. The MHP is the loser in both systems. According to the adjusted results, if the 2011 elections were held on a multi-member constituency basis where the number of representatives to be elected from every region is five, the AK Party would have won 342 seats in Parliament (as opposed to its current 327); the CHP 138 (as opposed to the current 135), while the MHP would have earned only 32 (compared to the current 53). The BDP would have won 38 seats (as opposed to 36). If, however, the system was based on a single-constituency region in which every electoral zone would be sending a single candidate to Parliament, the AK Party's number of seats would have gone up to 380.

The figures for İstanbul based on a five-member constituency system would be the following: The AK Party would have gotten 54 seats from İstanbul (as opposed to the current 46); the CHP 31 (as opposed to 29), while the MHP would have lost seven İstanbul deputies and the BDP would have lost three deputies from this city. In Ankara and İzmir, the AK Party would have gained roughly the same number of seats, but the CHP would have earned two more seats in İzmir, bringing the number of its deputies from this city to 15 from the current 13. The MHP would have lost its two deputies from this city. In Ankara the CHP would lose one deputy sending 10 deputies to Parliament. In Ankara the MHP would have kept its four deputies, but these results also change according to how the constituencies will be selected.

And finally, the current system works best for the AK Party. The governing party wants the threshold to be lowered to 5 percent, while the CHP and the BDP say it should be decreased to 3 percent. The MHP is not passionate about a lower threshold as such a situation directly benefits the BDP. The AK Party says, however, it will go with a 5 percent threshold only if the system will be based on multi-member constituencies.

Click on the image to enlarge (Graphic: Adnan Sarıkabak)

Most democratic system: no threshold, single-constituency

The optimal election system for Turkey, according to constitutional law professor Faruk Bilir, would be a system based on single-constituency regions from which the deputies will be elected and no threshold barrier for political parties to gain the right of representation in Parliament. “The single-constituency system would bring the representatives closer to the voters, and it will move the deputies away from the party administrations. In other words, the representatives will be more committed to their voters [than to their party]. The logic of the system is based on a majority win for the candidate who gets the most votes. This system also supports a bipartisan political scene. It is the electoral system in the US and the UK.”

Bilir said a multi-constituency system, which is what the government wants, is not a just election method. “The multi-constituency system was tried in Turkey before, but I don't think it will be preferred because it is not a fair election system.”

The general manager of the political consultancy company TANAR, İbrahim Kalemci admits that a multi-constituency system is not fair in terms of representation, but says it should still be preferred to ensure political stability. “But the deputies wouldn't listen to the headquarters in a single-constituency system. It will be like the time of feudal lords.” He said the deputies, since they will be more responsive to voters' needs, will have little loyalty to their party chairmen. He said, according to his understanding, strong leaders are important, noting that he is aware of criticism against the current situation of Turkish politics where party leaders make the most important decisions alone.

İbrahim Uslu, the general manager of the ANAR polling company, said: “The most democratic election system in the world has no threshold based on single-member constituency zones. The voter knows who they are voting for and votes for the person they want to choose, not the headquarters of a party.”

AK Party deputy Mustafa Şentop, who is also a constitutional professor, said, “Every system works for us because we are not a party that is favored in a given region of Turkey, but everywhere in the country. So bring any system you want, and it will be good for us. Claims that the AK Party is proposing the system that works best for itself aren't true.”