2015!

The Turkish side is not so homogeneous. Naturally, the Turkish state rejects the “genocide” claim. The official Turkish thesis posits that the Ottoman government was forced to take some measures for security reasons. What happened was the result of certain necessities; there was no organized killing of Armenians. The official Turkish thesis attributes the deaths of Armenians to causes such as ill health and hunger. However, there are Turkish historians, intellectuals and NGOs -- some of them a part of a large, influential group -- who are critical of the official Turkish thesis. One might even observe that being critical of the Turkish official thesis is a kind of intellectual requirement for some.

Why is this important? In 2015 the Turkish government will probably be in a diplomatic struggle with two different groups: the Armenian side, which is expected to do its best to validate its own position, and the various Turkish groups that will pressure the government to endorse a position different from that of the Armenians.

Meanwhile, two very important developments have occurred: One came in the form of a recent decision of the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR). In a case brought before it by Doğu Perinçek, the court declared that denying the “Armenian genocide” is not a crime. More, the court distinguished the Armenian case and the Jewish Holocaust. In fact, the court's decision should be seen as one of the best strategic gains for Turkey so far. This judicial decision will support Turkey strongly as 2015 approaches.

The other development was the recent statement of Ahmet Davutoğlu, the Turkish minister for foreign affairs. Very surprisingly, Davutoğlu said that the Ottoman deportation of the Armenians in 1915 was inhumane and that Turkey has never supported it. Davutoğlu's comments have historic significance, as no Turkish official at that level has ever said anything similar before. If not corrected (or reinterpreted), these comments can be read as the early signs of a major shift in the official Turkish thesis on the Armenian issue.

The traditional Turkish thesis is that the deportation was a matter of necessity. Labeling it “inhumane” certainly insinuates the presence of serious mistakes in Ottoman policy. More, this statement may raise Armenian expectations. It was immediately clear that Davutoğlu's use of “inhumane” positively shocked the Armenian side.

International relations always have a psychological dimension. Some states, in a psychologically affective frame of mind in 2015, may recognize the events of 1915 as “genocide.” It is beyond doubt that the events of 1915 will be an important issue at the international level in 2015. In one sense, 2015 will see the last battle, or the “finals,” of the Turkish-Armenian contest at the international level. Some states that have not recognized the Armenian thesis so far may change their position.

A major factor in this context is, naturally, Azerbaijan. Any Turkish strategy on the Armenian issue should factor in Azerbaijan. In the past the Azerbaijani opposition to any Turkish rapprochement with Armenia was mostly a moral debate with little practical impact. But in the last two years, it has transformed into a political and economic dynamic. Azerbaijan has become a key investor in Turkey. Huge financial projects like the Trans-Anatolian Pipeline (TANAP) are important. In short, symbolically speaking, Azerbaijan's veto power in Turkish politics is now of major concern.