Isolate Bayık

The 61-year-old son of Elazığ province, Bayık, also known as Cuma, considers the PKK as an ideological umbrella -- an organization labeled as a terrorist organization by the US, EU and UN. He is one of the five living founders of the PKK and was the group's second-in-command from 1978 until August 2013.

Bayık is an Alevi and has been considered the head of the Alevis within the PKK. Alevis make up a powerful segment of the organization's leadership, although they only account for 10 percent of the Kurdish population in Turkey. From July 30 until Aug. 5, 2013, with the participation of 162 members, the ninth regular convention of PKK was held. Bayık and Karayılan, a Sunni, were the only candidates to lead of the organization; Bayık beat Karayılan by just three votes and so claimed leadership of the organization.

In the last two months, the newly elected leader has reshuffled many of the organization's bodies, replacing pro-Karayılan figures with Alevis that are close to him. Some of the main names that have been replaced are: Ahmet Daniz, head of the PKK's public relations office; Roj Welat, Daniz's deputy, chief of all the organization's publications and head of the Fırat News Agency; Diyar Qamishlo, in the media office; Haval Damhat, head of the organization's office in the Kandil area; and Haval Haqi, also in the media office. The replacements have drawn criticism in the PKK's leadership council because all the new appointees are Alevis.

All these developments within the group are negative indicators for the settlement process because Bayık is a hard-liner who believes more in violence than peaceful methods to tackle the Kurdish question and who has close ties with Iran and the Bashar al-Assad regime. Since coming to power, the PKK's ties with the other mainstream Kurdish political party, Massoud Barzani's Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), have deteriorated, mainly because of Bayık's harsh statements against Barzani. During Karayılan's leadership, ties between the two were noticeably improving.

But that's not the worst of it. Bayık hasn't given even one positive statement to contribute to the settlement process. He has always threatened Turkey and favored resuming all-out war against the state, but he is not doing that because of Abdullah Öcalan, the jailed leader of the organization, who has supported the settlement process many times. Bayık knows if he doesn't obey Öcalan, the organization will fall apart.

In Syria, Bayık has pushed the Democratic Union Party (PYD) to get closer to Assad's regime and step up its unilateral move to form an interim administration in the Kurdish areas, thus weakening the pro-KDP forces; the move has divided the Syrian Kurds even more. Moreover, the recent worsening of ties between the KDP and the PYD is believed to reflect the policies that the PKK is adopting under Bayık's rule.

Although the PKK is a Marxist organization, it seems that like other ideological groups in the region, the organization is divided. Apparently, Bayık and the other Alevi leaders have a different agenda than that of Öcalan, Karayılan and the political wing of the organization, the Peace and Democracy Party (BDP). By allying with the Tehran-Moscow-Beijing-Damascus-Baghdad axis, Bayık seems to be more in favor of Shia regimes in the region, while the Sunnis in the group are more focused on their territories inside Turkey and favor more independent policies in Syria.

Bayık, Mustafa Karaso, Duran Kalkan and Afin Duran make up the extreme wing of the PKK, which advocates for more violence not only to reach the organization's goal, but also to weaken the Turkish state, Iran's natural rival. Bayık's two boldest policies since claiming leadership of the PKK have been dividing the organization more than ever by exploiting Sunni-Alevi sensitivities and working to decrease the chances of success of the already fragile settlement process.