The 58 percent factor in Washington

The occasion was the release of the “Transatlantic Trends” survey by the German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF). Gordon left the audience surprised with the soft tone of his messages regarding Turkey. He was the same senior official who previously initiated an interview with The Associated Press to send a message to Ankara just before the G-20 summit in Canada and directed extremely harsh criticism at the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) government over its Iran policy. What might have been the reason for this change in attitude?

The GMF report was filled with critical data and analyses supporting claims that Turkish public opinion was drifting away from the US, EU and NATO. In fact, the GMF did not even place Turkey in the same group as the original 11 EU member countries, as in previous reports, but kept it in a different category and provided a separate column for Turkey in most of its graphical analyses. (This must have pleased Europeans who favor “privileged partnership”). However, Gordon was keen on not saying anything that would support the claim that there is a shift in axis in Turkey. Actually, he did not say anything at all which would make the Turkish government sad.

I have a feeling the “58 percent factor” had a critical role in Gordon’s attitude. Realizing that the AK Party, which in a sense won a vote of confidence in the referendum as well, would stay in power for some time to come, the American administration quickly adjusted itself. As a result, those in the US who have been lobbying against Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s government failed once again.

Due to campaigning by experts at think tanks especially close to the Israeli lobby carried out in collaboration with their extensions in Turkey, many in Washington have started to believe that the AK Party was on its way out. It was suggested that “yes” and “no” votes in the referendum would be very close and that would pave the way to a Republican People’s Party (CHP) and Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) coalition government in the 2011 election, making it possible for the US to get rid of the AK Party. Such deceitful actions have influenced some key figures in the American administration. Many of the Turkish and American experts who were invited to various brainstorming sessions, including those held in the presence of US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, were of this view. Fortunately, these individuals, who had the opportunity to pour out their hatred of the AK Party in private gatherings, were not able to influence much seasoned and wise Americans in their audiences. In fact, I heard that some of the sentimental assessments, which were more insulting than analytical, backfired.

Despite objections from the US State Department, where the view that the Erdoğan government should be challenged and brought down a peg seems prevalent, US President Barack Obama called Prime Minister Erdoğan on the day of the referendum and congratulated him, a move that served as a critical turning point. Notorious foes of the AK Party in Washington had a fit when Obama congratulated Erdoğan even though this was not included in his talking points. Obama thereby from the top set the tone for how the American administration would respond to Ankara in the future.

The 58 percent phenomenon effectively thwarted the predominant view argued in brainstorming sessions in institutions in Washington that America should distance itself from the Erdoğan government. Americans either have or are going to make a new assessment of the situation. Even the pro-Israel lobby’s efforts against the government might not resonate in the US Congress as much as they did before the referendum because, and in the final analysis, the school of thought that dominates foreign affairs in Washington is a pragmatic and realistic one. This line becomes more dominant in the higher echelons of the government, and its chief representative is President Obama.

A phone call from President Obama on Sept. 12 to kindly congratulate Prime Minister Erdoğan despite the unpleasant memories of Turkish policies with Armenia and Iran shows that the chemistry between the two leaders is still intact. Turkey is very fortunate that the US is being led by a sincere, peaceful and intellectual person of universal caliber such as Obama. What upsets me is that problems in Turkish-American relations remain even during the period of Obama, who visited Turkey during his first transatlantic trip as president and shows the value and importance he attaches to Turkey at every occasion.

I believe Obama still values the US’s relationship with Turkey and will not succumb to deliberate or ignorant claims against the country. On the other hand, it is also important that we assist Obama a little more in making his foreign policy, which for the most part complies with Turkey’s goals, successful. That is because a reformist Obama is needed not just for the US but for Turkey and the world for some time to come.

We must see that the issue of containing Iran is not just a function of the pro-Israel lobby but essential to Obama’s political future as well. If Tehran acquires nuclear weapons and a chain reaction of nuclear armament starts in the Middle East under Obama’s watch, who has declared nuclear disarmament one of his biggest foreign policy objectives, just imagine how much credibility he will lose in domestic and foreign policy. Don’t forget that the Republicans, who had been constantly undermining Obama’s power by shamelessly spreading rumors that he is a Muslim and a socialist to prevent him from being elected to a second term in office, would exploit any failure in the Iranian policy. And if the Republicans take control of the US leadership again, have no doubt that they will observe a more nationalist, exclusionist and pro-war policy. They might even try to revive the system of tutelage in Turkey with the support of the pro-Israel lobby.

In brief, the 58 percent outcome led Washington to realign itself. It strengthened the hand of Obama, who prefers the policy of engagement with the Erdoğan government. In return, Ankara should help Obama out.