Time out

I sometimes wish I could again enjoy Turkey with the distant approach of a first time visitor. After a quarter of a century following the country's many ups and downs, I sometimes suffer from Turkey fatigue and need to spend a few weeks abroad to recharge my batteries, enjoy a cultural and ethnic diversity still missing in the country and clear my head of the loud political noise ever present as Turkey hurtles along from one polemic to the next. We don't just hear it with our ears, we feel it with all our senses: The commotion is in the air we breathe, in the palpable tension that surrounds us.

From afar, without this Turkey-specific political noise pollution -- no country is free of political controversies, of course -- it becomes easier to sort through thoughts and get a clearer picture of what is going on, to measure the progress achieved in some areas, but also the disappointment of seeing real achievements undermined by severe setbacks now eating away at the advances of the past decade, sapping hopes that a more democratic Turkey will soon emerge.

The questions about Turkey I face abroad also help me clarify my views. Is Turkey on its way to becoming a dictatorship? No, it is led by an increasingly authoritarian figure but the level of resistance and the heated debates point to a society that isn't ready to give in. In fact, the Gezi protests and the recent outcry about the government's attempts to meddle with private mixed-gender student accommodation are the products of a rapidly changing nation, still led in an old-fashioned, paternalistic way that is increasingly at odds with the needs of the next generation, more open to the world. Traditionalists may deplore the social changes and the growing individualism, but they were largely brought on by the economic policies pursued by the conservative government, as well as by technology and social media.

A frequent question: Is Turkey becoming like theocratic Iran? Again, no I don't think it is, but Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, seriously unsettled by the Gezi unrest and sensing that his power has peaked, is now openly playing the religion and morality card to boost his power among conservatives. His patriarchal views find an echo in the bureaucracy, creating a climate unfriendly to young people and to women. In the process, he's also deepening the divisions in Turkish society, dangerously raising tension in the country and severely eroding his own image internationally. The combativeness and determination that made him a successful leader have increasingly turned into aggressiveness and stubbornness now that hubris has pushed away the pragmatic side that tempered early decisions.

People I encounter here in New York are most curious about the long-term impact of the Gezi protests. The Justice and Development Party (AKP) remains the dominant force in the country, and the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP), too entrenched in its old ways, has proven unable to rise to the plate and seize the opportunity. But if electorally, balances are relatively unchanged, nothing is quite the same in Turkey. The aura of invincibility that surrounded the AKP and the prime minister has been punctured. No one yet knows what will happen next, but Deputy Prime Minister Bülent Arınç's recent public outburst shows that Mr. Erdoğan's reckless style of leadership is causing rumbles within the ruling party. Several of the party's heavyweights are in their last parliamentary term, which may make them less easy to control in the comings months.

All of these developments point to 2014 being a crucial year for Turkey. The municipal elections may offer important pointers about the mood of the country, but the presidential election, whether or not Mr. Erdoğan moves to Çankaya, will inevitably shake up the ruling party. Refreshed after my trip, I'll soon plunge again into the fray and will be watching developments with interest.