Turkey strikes back

All this came after Turkish fighter jets shot down a Syrian Mi-17 helicopter after it violated Turkish airspace following repeated warnings on Monday.

Two things are clear at the moment. First, Turkey is crystal clear and serious about its military's rules of engagement, which state that any Syrian element approaching the border would be deemed a threat and be treated as a military target. This change came about following Syria's downing of a Turkish jet last summer.

Venturing up to two kilometers deep into Turkey is more than a violation of Turkish airspace and requires military engagement, as happened in the case of the helicopter, which entered Turkish airspace near the border town of Yayladağı.

Second, Turkey has now restored its eroding ability to deter by shooting down the Syrian helicopter, which, according to Turkish Deputy Prime Minister Bülent Arınç, ignored repeated warnings by “Turkish air defense elements.”

"No one will have the nerve to violate Turkey's borders in any way again," Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu said in Paris on the same day, reflecting the Turkish government's determination to warn those who may mistakenly think that deeds don't follow Turkey's words.

Put bluntly, the shooting serves perfectly the psychological needs of the government, which faces fierce criticism both at home and abroad over its mishandling of Turkey's policy on the intractable Syrian conflict. There was an apparent mismatch between words and deeds in the past two years and this shooting will certainly help reduce that gap.

The first reaction within the country reveals complex and confused feelings. The somber mood among the public is replaced with a restored pride as Turks seem to back the Turkish government for its tough stance against intrusion given the fact that similar acts escaped harsh response in the past.

While Turkish troops along the border are reportedly on high alert, I do not expect any escalation between the two countries after the downing of the helicopter for a number of reasons.

Firstly, the shooting was a defensive act in nature, carried out to uphold the rules of engagement along the long border and it doesn't signal a “U-turn” in Ankara's cautious playing on the field despite confusing and sometimes bold rhetoric adopted by the Turkish officials.

Turkey has so far refrained from taking unilateral military action against the Syrian regime to avoid becoming bogged down in a protracted civil war, which is increasingly taking on a sectarian character and includes risks of regional escalation. Despite the exchange of artillery fire between Turkish and Syrian armies on a small scale over the past two years, Ankara has been cautious and has successfully averted military escalation along the border. Ankara contemplated some form of military intervention last year to create a “buffer zone” inside Syrian territory to deal with worsening refugee crisis but abandoned such plans given the lack of backing from its Western allies.

The second main factor that gives pause to the Turkish government is the fragile political situation at home. A new round of street protests have exposed a strong distaste among some segments of society for the government, such that any attempt for a military action abroad would face fierce objection in the country. Recent polls show there is little appetite among the Turkish public for a military adventure abroad, namely an entanglement in the prolonged Syrian civil war.

The frustrating signs over the fate of the fragile peace process with the terrorist Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) to end the decades-old armed conflict is also another major factor that prevents the Recep Tayyip Erdoğan government from taking a robust policy on the Syrian crisis. The PKK last week announced that it has halted withdrawal of militants from Turkish soil, accusing the Turkish government of slowing down democratic reforms to expand the rights of Turkey's restive Kurdish population.  

On the Syrian side, the Bashar al-Assad regime barely escaped US military strikes in retaliation for a chemical attack against opposition forces last month, thanks to a recent diplomatic deal brokered by Russia to destroy Syria's vast chemical weapons stockpile.

Facing an ordeal and battle of survival in the capital, the regime has little desire or reason to divert its attention and resources for another fight against a powerful army on the Turkish border.

The Syrian regime will likely condemn the Turkish side for the shooting but it is unlikely to retaliate as Turkey also didn't respond to the downing of its jet last summer. The shooting means that Syrian pilots from now on will pay more attention when they approach the Turkish border.