Erdoğan’s message to the Jewish lobby

For them, Erdoğan’s rhetoric on Israel was totally unacceptable. Actually I was hoping the prime minister would tone down his criticism about Israel in Washington. After all, this is one of the most Israel-friendly capitals in the world. But he didn’t. On the contrary, his rhetoric was harsher than last time he was here.

It must have been painful for many friends of Israel to see Turkey’s influential prime minister continue to grill Israel about its actions in Gaza and point at Israel’s suspected nuclear arsenal to call for more fairness in efforts towards suppressing Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Many people have asked: “OK, we understand Erdoğan was angry at Israel during the Gaza operations. But so far he has expressed his reaction in many ways. Why does he continue to do that?” Here’s my humble analysis.

Realistically, there has never been a loving relationship between Erdoğan and Israel. After all, Erdoğan comes from the grass roots of a staunchly anti-Zionist political movement known as Milli Gorus. He was later transformed into a much more moderate leader after he dumped Necmettin Erbakan and established the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) in 2001. But I’m sure there still remain traces of old hostilities. The suspicions are mutual because although Israel and the Jewish lobby in Washington have treated Erdoğan better than Erbakan, they have always had deep reservations about him. Some of them were impressed by his pragmatic stance when he gave personal assurances that his ruling party would let the US open a northern front against Iraq in 2003. Nevertheless, no matter how hard Erdoğan lobbied, he was unable to get the AK Party group in Parliament fully on board. Consequently, the legislative motion fell a few votes short. I guess Erdoğan lost the opportunity to be a hero in the eyes of Israel and the Jewish lobby then.

As a result of Turkey’s rejection of being a more visible member of US-led coalition against Iraq, Ankara’s image in the Islamic Middle East has improved tremendously. And Turkish foreign policy makers have decided to use this political capital to increase their leverage in Middle East and conflict resolution processes. Of course, having a new competitor as an intermediary or mediator would not make some predominantly Muslim nations who are already in that business, such as Egypt and Jordan, happy. It is also conceivable that Shia Iran would not be enthusiastic about the rise of another Sunni player friendly with the West. Israelis have their own reasons to be uneasy about it as well. In their eyes, Turks are generally more sympathetic to Arab and Muslim causes, so they can’t be honest brokers. However, mostly out of niceness, the Israelis let Turkey pursue leading their secret peace talks with Syria. The problem is that the Turks had no clue the Israelis weren’t serious about it. That’s why the Gaza war’s halt to the Syrian-Israeli talks disappointed Erdoğan and his government so much.

So why is Erdoğan still so angry with Israel? Because he sees Israel as a dishonest ally who resists Ankara’s aspirations to play a larger role in the Middle East and beyond. Plus, while Turkey presents itself as a nation with a peace agenda, Israel is seen as an odd partner with more of a war agenda. In addition to those fundamental issues, Erdoğan is particularly annoyed by some friends of Israel in Washington because, especially lately, they have been part of a concerted effort to discredit the AK Party government in the US. For example, most of the blame for the Gareth Jenkins panel discussion and a hearing on Turkey at a congressional commission went to friends of Israel in Congress, who are believed to have facilitated them.

At those events, the Erdoğan administration’s attitude vis-à-vis the tax evasion case against the Doğan Group and the Ergenekon case against military-civilian coup attempts was harshly criticized. It was no accident that Erdoğan critically mentioned some unfriendly lobbying efforts in his prepared remarks at an event hosted by the German Marshall Fund of the United States. And he expressed strong support for the Doğan and Ergenekon cases. The way I see and hear it, he wanted to issue a strong message to the Jewish lobby and Israel along with their allies from Turkey’s Kemalist establishment: I will not yield to such pressure. Bring it on!

It looks like Washington will continue to be one of the liveliest fronts in Turkish power struggles both within the country and in the international arena, especially the Middle East. Israel’s wise friends here must especially refrain from taking sides in the ongoing cold war in Turkey between the traditional Kemalist establishment and their contenders such as the AK Party.

Instead of further intimidating and alienating rising new elements that largely come from heartland Anatolia, they should explore ways to increase social, economic and political ties with them as well. Because unless democracy suddenly disappears from Turkey or there is a Muslim holocaust, these circles will increasingly be a major force in shaping the country’s domestic and foreign policy future. Whether you like them, or not.