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25 December 2013 Wednesday
 
 
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YUSRA GHANNOUCHI

8 July 2013

How to depose an unpopular leader -- and how unpopular was he?

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An Egyptian opposition protester holds a chair and knife during a clash between supporters and opponents of ousted President Mohammed Morsi in downtown Damietta, Egypt, on July 3. (Photo: AP, Hamada Alrasam)
Arguments continue to flood political corridors, academic circles and social networks blindly insisting that what is unfolding in Egypt is not a coup.

The argument is that President Mohammed Morsi had lost everyone's support, and there was no way to get rid of him other than inviting a military coup. President Morsi certainly did not enjoy universal approval, but, in addition to all arguments refuting the "democracy through coup" delusion, the claim that a clear majority were against him is questionable. A PEW Poll (May 2013) showed views of Egyptians towards Morsi were: 53 percent favorable, 43 percent unfavorable. That is considerably higher than President Barack Obama and all EU leaders' approval ratings. Interestingly, his approval ratings were higher than all opposition leaders, his disapproval ratings lower than theirs.

Similarly for the demonized Muslim Brotherhood (MB), the argument claims that the coup was a response to an overwhelming popular rejection of the MB (and for some a conviction that they had to be pushed out of politics -- if not from existence altogether -- for Egypt's sake, as expressed in some disturbing chants celebrating their downfall such as "tonight, tonight, Ikhwaan no longer tonight!"). However, the same poll shows that views of the MB were 63 percent favorable, 36 percent unfavorable. That is indeed lower than the 75 percent who had favorable views of the MB in 2011, but for a movement in power, particularly after a revolution, the drop is certainly not surprising. Their experience in power has certainly had good and bad judgments. My aim, in highlighting these statistics is not to claim that President Morsi and the MB are faultless; we all know that is untrue. But their mistakes are political misjudgments, not crimes for which they should be excluded and persecuted, and should be addressed at the ballot box. Those who use "unpopularity" to justify the abortion of the democratic process and the invitation of a military coup should be worried in case that argument is used against them in the future. That applies to the opposition National Salvation Front (NSF) leaders whose approval ratings, according to the same survey, were not stellar, and, notably, below the man they wished to depose by coup (47 percent had unfavorable views of Hamdeen Sabbahi and 54 percent had unfavorable views of Mohamed Elbaradei) while we know it is certainly easier to be popular in opposition than it is in power.

Many academics and politicians who are not sympathetic to the MB, but are committed to democratic principles, had repeatedly argued that the experience of Islamists in power would lead to the erosion of their popularity, creating a better balance in the political scene. That hypothesis was sadly left untested by the suspension of the natural political process to test the MB's popularity in the next elections. This does not only deprive academics and observers from testing their theories, but more dangerously deprives Egyptians of the hard-won chance to exercise their right of holding their elected leaders accountable through the ballot box. This has dealt a fatal blow to belief in democratic means as the right means for expressing resentment and for political change. The grave consequences are already before our eyes, and I sincerely pray -- against all odds and all historical precedents -- that the elected president and constitutional order are restored and the democratic process is urgently resumed to avoid further disastrous consequences for Egypt.

 
COMMENTS
Ms Yusra obviously Islamist agenda suits you well. Let say this until that 43% unfavorable population is satisfied peace will not come to Egypt. It is about happiness of all not just faithful MB supporters.
DENISE
Very good article from Yusra, the big problem was the economy collapsed so comprehensively under the MB's amateur and inexperienced rule that the people could not wait another 4 years for the next election. There were huge shortages in food and fuel. People could not even find flour to make bread, a...
biran
Ahmed Aly, military dictator Mubarak had won rigged and funny elections; the polls were not free and fair at all, not democratically held, the elections were totally unacceptable to Egyptians and to international community. Please don't forget that most of the tyrants and dictators around the globe ...
Mahmud
I agree with Mahmud that There is no place in democracy to say that this elected leader has lost his/her legitimacy because some hundreds/thousands/millions people have assembled here or there and they are shouting slogans condemning that particular leader in office, but if we adopted this rule; th...
Ahmed Aly
It is very fashionable to say that sharia is incompatible with democracy! Really? What is the basis principle of democracy? Is it that rulers are accountable to people who elect them to rule the state over a fixed period of time? Should a people not be able to decide what form of law should bound...
Ahmed Ruhullah
Kinneddar, I am sorry to say that what you have written is untrue and misleading. It is the people of Egypt who have endorsed the constitution through the referendum; 63% of the voters voted infavour of the constitution that we are taking about. It is the people of Egypt, and only they, who will dec...
Mahmud
Morsi's constitution was based on Sharia law, which is decidedly undemocratic. Most Egyptians (over 70%) objected to this, but somehow it was approved by referendum. Waiting to see the fruits of Morsi's Islamist government, or to "test this hyothesis" as you put it, would have caused suffering in E...
Kinneddar
Egypt survey shows 69% of Egyptians oppose coup. Egyptians voted for MB (67% in parliament, 64% constitution and 52% for Dr. Morsi islamist.com/index.php/revolution/2399
Rafe Husain
The photograph reads that an Egyptian opposition supporter but how do you prove that this person belongs to opposition. Only because he is holding a knife in his hand. Let us not forget that AP is the source of this photograph.
A. Khan
The West double standard is outrageous, they are breaching for democracy day and night, acusing Muslims and Arabs of being against democracy when infact they,the West, don,t waste any opportunity to support their dictators bubbits to kill and mame their peoples.Once the Arab Spring toppled the Wes...
Mustafa Dharaghmi
A good debate and arguments offered. I am thankful to live tv channels who have really made the world a global village. We have seen the anti and pro Morsi protests and observed that the anti protesters were fully facilitated by the policemen and the armymen. For example, we saw the copters distribu...
ghulam mujtaba
Nothing can justify toppling a freely and democratically elected president through a military coup d'etat. Democracy is a journey, not a destination. It would not be perfectly plausible to say that everything went well under Muslim Brotherhood rule led by President Mohammed Morsi; and demonstrations...
Mahmud
David your comments are spot on and this is where the problem lies. Religion is a personal and free choice and should never have anything to do with the good governance of a country. Turkey is making the same mistake. Here is the other thing,people are tired of waiting to see if the elected leaders...
Petra
DAVID, Egyptian law does not have an impeachment process.
Visitor
It is quite true that incompetence, lack of vision, and the inability to address Egyptians beyond “al Ahl wa al ‘ashira” are not crimes. However, allowing followers to interrogate and torture citizens right in front of the door of the Presidential Palace; not just silence on the torture and killing...
Visitor
Ok let us be real here. The MB would normally get about 30% of the vote. They lied through their teeth offering a pluralist inclusive democracy and an improving economy. The people got neither and were extremely unhappy. When the next election comes they will again get their natural vote of around 3...
Biran
Mahmud, the proper way to remove an elected official is through "impeachment", where the charges are brought against the official in a court and a jury decides if the charges are valid, which could (if convicted) lead to his/her removal from office. Another method in a Democracy is the "recall" (a ...
David
It is universally accepted that the procedure to unseat a democratically elected leader is to defeat him/her in a freely and democratically held election. There is no place in democracy to say that this elected leader has lost his/her legitimacy because some hundreds/thousands/millions people have a...
Mahmud
Very good analysis, thank you.
khaled
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YUSRA GHANNOUCHI

YUSRA GHANNOUCHI