Ruling AK Party may cast off three-term rule after corruption scandal

Several media outlets close to the government have said the goal of the ongoing corruption investigation, in which four Cabinet ministers face allegations and two ministers' sons have been arrested, is to reshape the AK Party by doing away with Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

Rumor has it in the corridors of Ankara that if the AK Party, which received 50 percent of the national vote in the 2011 general elections, receives only 40 percent in the local elections to be held in March, Erdoğan, who is expected to run for the presidency in next year's presidential elections, may abandon his plans and re-nominate incumbent President Abdullah Gül.

In such a scenario, the three-term rule will be an obstacle to Erdoğan's continued leadership of the AK Party.

Dengir Mir Mehmet Fırat, a former AK Party deputy chairman, told Today's Zaman that Erdoğan would only reverse the three-term rule for himself, as his stance has been very firm on this issue.

“He said a change in this rule could cause his party to lose the nation's trust. He will only make a U-turn on this issue for himself. If he thinks he cannot be elected president, he will not run for the presidency and will change the rule in order to continue as prime minister,” Fırat said.

Speaking to Today's Zaman about the rumored change to the three-term rule, AK Party spokesperson Hüseyin Çelik said his party has no plans to change the rule at present. However, if the prime minister believes such a change is necessary, the party can alter the rule within 48 hours.

According to the party bylaw, deputies serving three terms in Parliament must take a one-term break before running for Parliament again. Because of this bylaw the AK Party has nominated some of its three-term deputies as mayoral candidates in March's local elections, as they are unable to run in the general elections. More than 70 AK Party deputies will not be able to run for Parliament in the next general election due to the three-term rule.

Another AK Party official, who asked to remain anonymous, said he does not think Erdoğan is likely to turn on the three-term rule.

“He made this rule himself to prevent the formation of a group of old politicians in the party, similar to those around [former Prime Minister Necmettin] Erbakan. In the party's last general congress, he ran for party leadership for the last time, and this is his last term as a deputy,” he said.

Given the fact that Erdoğan had already said he would not run for Parliament again after his third term, the AK Party official said he does not understand the idea that the operation's goal is to reshape the AK Party.

Some have claimed that an anti-Erdoğan front in Turkey, which is thought to have an international aspect, is attempting to derail his ambitions in the presidential elections. It is feared that Erdoğan may not receive 51 percent of the national vote, which is necessary for him to be elected president, in which case the three-term rule will bar him from active politics.

Others propose that if Erdoğan becomes president, the AK Party's new leader will be unable to maintain its power and popularity, thus Erdoğan should remain at the party's helm.

Some AK Party officials say the decision to alter the three-term rule will occur in accordance with the results of the local elections in March. If Erdoğan, who has so far objected to altering the three-term rule, decides that such a change is necessary, the rule can be changed without the need to convene a party congress. A meeting of the party's Central Executive Board (MYK) would be sufficient to change the bylaw.