Five reasons why North Korea won't nuke US

Hours before the Security Council voting, North Korea said since the United States is about to ignite a nuclear war, it will be exercising its right to a preemptive nuclear attack against the “headquarters of the aggressor in order to protect our supreme interest." Despite its threatening rhetoric, five compelling reasons make it highly unlikely that North Korea will ever send any missiles with nuclear warheads into American soil.

1) There is the basic reason that North Korea currently does not have the capability to carry out any nuclear attack against the US. To try to hit American territory with a nuclear weapon, North Korea could use intercontinental missiles, aircraft or its navy. With its highly sophisticated missile defense system, it is unthinkable that a North Korean missile carrying a nuclear warhead could travel several thousand miles uninterrupted by US anti-missile systems. The same logic goes for North Korean aircraft and navy ships loaded with nuclear weapons.   

2) China is another player that would not want to see its rogue ally striking its major adversary across the Pacific. Even mere nuclear tests by North Korea drew Beijing's ire, as it issued condemnation and cooperated with the US on subsequent Security Council sanctions. China fears that North Korea's nuclear provocations will invite the deployment of more US missiles in South Korea and Japan in a bid to protect its allies in the region, a move China would be loathe to see. But can China stop North Korea?

Despite talk that North Korea's nuclear test last month was a message aimed at Beijing saying the regime is no longer dependent on China, the reality on the ground suggests that the argument is misleading at best. Proponents of this argument point to the harshening tone from Chinese officials on North Korea as well as Beijing's cooperation with Washington on sanctions as evidence. China's anger at North Korea is largely driven by its ally's defying Beijing to go ahead with nuclear plans that would irritate the US. China is meeting North Korea's entire energy needs, providing much of its food and sending in crucial aid that keeps the regime in Pyongyang afoot. Sustaining nuclear bombs and building the means to deliver them is a very expensive venture. Chinese support for North Korea is too essential for the regime to ignore.

3) Nuclear weapons are not for use but for sending political messages. The Soviet Union and the US exchanged over a thousand nuclear tests in dueling shows of force throughout the Cold War and their nuclear capability made the world a safer place. Nuclear bombs are the most effective military deterrent. Nuclear weapons didn't deter imperial Japan in 1945 for the simple reason that the Japanese didn't realize what a single nuclear bomb was capable of.

4) Kim Jong-Un and his cronies are not suicidal. The North Korean leadership is well aware that it will take years to have the capability of delivering nuclear bombs to the US. North Korea, currently estimated to have fewer than 10 nuclear warheads, is even more aware of the fact that it is impossible to match the nuclear capability of the US, which has more than 5,000 nuclear bombs. In less than an hour, the US could wipe North Korea off the map by showering nuclear bombs if Pyongyang sends a single nuclear bomb to the US.

5) They don't mean it. Pretending to be an irrational and suicidal leader is a new form of defense. We saw the same movie with respect to Iran, whose leader frequently vows to destroy the “Zionist entity.” Pyongyang reinforced its “irrational” image by sinking a South Korean ship and shelling its closest adversary's island in 2010. The message is simple: “Don't attack me, I'm unrestrained and incapable of calculating consequences.”

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