Antony Green's Election Blog

Gippsland South By-election Results Coverage

Live coverage of Gippsland South by-election results at http://www.abc.net.au/elections/vic/2015/gippslandsouth/ from 6pm on Saturday 14 March.

(Sorry for the brief post. It's only here so that Google's algorithm can find my coverage.)

Summary of Candidates and parties Contesting the 2015 NSW Election

A total of 934 candidates have nominated for the NSW Election, 540 candidates for the 93 Legislative Assembly electorates, and a record 394 for the 21-member Legislative Council election.

(Click here for my full guide to the 2015 NSW election.)

The 540 Assembly candidates is an increase from the 498 in 2011, and the 3rd highest on record behind 661 in 2003 and 732 in 1999.

The Legislative Council has seen the number of candidates rise/fall from 311 candidates in 2011 to 394. The No Land Tax party has drawn the prize Group A on the left hand side of the ballot paper. The Coalition have drawn well in Group E, column five.

The tables below summarise the nominations.

The Battle for the NSW Legislative Council

While the NSW election focus is on the Baird government's re-election attempt, there is a second election being held on 28 March that is almost as critical for the government.

(Click here for my full guide to the 2015 NSW election.)

If re-elected the Baird government proposes to implement a plan for major expenditure on road, rail and other infrastructure funded by the long term lease of half of the state's electricity transmission network.

But to implement this plan, the Baird government will need to pass legislation through the state's upper house, the Legislative Council. As well as winning re-election, the Baird government will need to improve its position in the Legislative Council.

In the last four years, passing legislation that was opposed by Labor and the Greens has required the Coalition to gain the support of the Council's smaller cross-bench parties, the Christian Democratic Party and the Shooters and Fishers Party.

If re-elected, the Baird government hopes to improve its position so that it can pass legislation with the support of only one minor party on the cross-bench. In the case of the electricity sell-off, the Shooters and Fishers Party oppose the plan, so the Coalition will be hoping to be in a position where the government only needs to negotiate with the Christian Democrats.

To achieve this goal, the Coalition need to poll around 39% in the Council election to elect the nine members it needs to pass the legislation in negotiation with the Christian Democrats.

As both Labor and the Coalition record lower shares of the vote in the Legislative Council compared to the lower house, the Coalition needs to keep its first preference up to ensure both its re-election and its chances of passing legislation through the Council.

Why the Baird Government is Vulnerable

(Click here for my full guide to the 2015 NSW election.)

As the NSW election approaches, the Baird government's vulnerability to defeat is being hidden by the reporting of opinion polls.

Opinion polls showing Coalition 2-party preferred result of 53% or 54% are being reported as the Baird government on track for re-election when in all likelihood they indicate a much closer contest with the government at risk of losing its majority.

There are three reasons for this.

Launch of my 2015 NSW Election Website

I've just launched the ABC's election website for the NSW state election on 28 March.

I'm giving it what they call a 'soft' launch. I'm linking to it from this blog, it is linked from the ABC Elections home page, but it won't get the full treatment from the ABC News home page until next week.

You can find the usual features on the site via this link. Next week I'll be adding an election summary, and more information on candidate will be added as well.

Gippsland South By-election - 14 March 2015

Former Victorian Nationals Leader and Deputy Premier Peter Ryan has resigned from the Victorian Parliament. A by-election will be held for his seat of Gippsland South on Saturday 14 March.

You can use this link to find a profile of the Gippsland South electorate and details of the by-election candidates at the ABC election.

Final Queensland Election Results, Preferences and a New Pendulum

The results of the 2015 Queensland Election held on 31 January are now final and it is possible to summarise the overall result and provide a post-election electoral pendulum.

All pages on the ABC election site have been updated with final figures.

The table below sets out the final first preference votes, change in vote and seats won by party.

2015 NSW Election - Miranda Miranda what to do with Miranda??

before each election I have to define a party classification and margin for all electorates. This classification is used on the ABC website, in the election calculator and in the ABC's election computer.

To classify seats I look at which party and candidate won at the last election, has the party nature of the electorate been changed by a redistribution, has the seat changed at a by-election, or has the sitting member changed party.

The southern Sydney seat of Miranda is causing me some special classification problems for the 2015 election.

Miranda was won by the Liberal Party's Graham Annesley in 2011, has been strengthened for the Liberal Party in the redistribution, was surprisingly won by Labor at a 2013 by-election, but the party contest has been changed by the decision of Labor MP Barry Collier to resume the retirement he had previously embarked upon in 2011.

Given these changes, I am inclined to classify Miranda as a Liberal held seat for the 2015 election for the reasoning I set out below, but I am interested to receive the views of my blog's readers on my choice.

Ferny Grove Preference Distribution Published

The publication of the preference distribution for Ferny Grove has firmed up the chances of Labor winning any Court of Disputed Returns Decision.

The final result has Labor winning by 466 votes after preferences.

During the distribution of preferences from the Palmer United Candidate Mark Taverner, 353 of his ballot papers 'exhausted' with no further preference for Labor, LNP or Green candidates.

(Since election day, Taverner has been revealed as an undischarged bankrupt and therefore had not been eligible to be a candidate.)

The figure of 353 is the maximum possible value of the number of Taverner's ballot papers with a '1' only vote.

On his exclusion, Taverner's total would have included some votes from the previously excluded candidate, Independent Di Gittens. His total would also have included some 1-Taverner 2-Gittens votes that then exhausted.

That is why I say 353 is the maximum possible value of '1' only votes, that is ballot papers for Taverner that did not make a valid preference choice for one of the other four candidates.

If every one of the voters who cast these '1' only ballots had voted for the LNP candidate in the absence of Taverner on the ballot paper, Labor would still have won Ferny Grove by more than 100 votes.

That makes it harder to argue that Taverner's presence on the ballot paper has affected the outcome in Ferny Grove.

As I explained in a previous post, the High Court has ruled that the simple presence of an unelected ineligible candidate is not of itself enough to overturn a result. The presence of the ineligible candidate must also affect the outcome.

Under full preferential voting, it can be argued that voters for the ineligible candidate still made a choice for other candidates in the contest who were eligible.

Under optional preferential voting as applies in Queensland, you could argue there is a distinction between votes for Taverner with preferences and those that were '1 only votes.

Taverner votes with preferences would fall under the High Court's previous rulings because voters expressed preferences for candidates who were eligible.

But people who voted '1' only would have been required to to make another first preference choice if Taverner had not been on the ballot paper, unless they voted informal. They would have affected the result if Taverner had not been present.

But with a maximum possible 353 '1' only votes for Taverner, that would not be enough to change the result in Ferny grove if they had all voted for the LNP.

To argue the result in Ferny Grove should be voided, more general arguments about Taverner influencing the result must now be made. A different choice by Taverner '1' only voters is not enough to have changed result.

 

Huge Shift in Preference Flows at 2015 Queensland Election

(This post will be updated over the next few days)

As well as the massive shift in first preference votes from LNP to Labor, a key feature of the 2015 Queensland election has been the shift in preference flows.

With preference distributions now being published, it is possible to begin disaggregating the preference flows.

In 2009, based on preference flows for the final excluded Green candidate in 71 electorates, Green preferences flowed 39.4% to Labor, 17.8% to the LNP and 42.8% exhausted.

In 2012, in the smaller sample of 33 electorates where Green candidates were the final exclusion, preferences flowed 43.3% to Labor, 16.3% to the LNP and 40.4% exhausted.

So far in 2015, in 19 electorates where the same Green preference data is available, the flows are 65.8% to Labor, 11.1% to the LNP and 23.0% exhausted.

On a Green vote of 8.4% statewide, that shift in preferences, an extra 20% flow to Labor, is translating into more than 2% worth of swing to Labor. With all published polls having used 2012 preference flows, it is no wonder that opinion polls underestimated the swing to Labor, even though most were relatively accurate with their first preference votes.

The electorate of Bulimba had three candidates (ALP, LNP, GRN) in both 2012 and 2015. In 2012 the Green preferences were 49.1% to Labor, 15.1% to LNP and 35.8% exhausted. The same figures in 2015 are 69.4% to Labor, 10.1% to LNP and 20.5% exhausted. That's an extra 2-3% on the swing entirely caused by changes in preference flows.

In the Premier's seat of Ashgrove, in 2012 the preferences of all candidates combined were 54.1% to ALP, 18.1% to LNP and 27.7% exhausted. IN 2015 the numbers were 73.5% to Labor, 10.4% to LNP and 16.1% exhausted.

In 2012 there were 71 2-party contests and the overall split of preferences between Labor and LNP was 27.0% to Labor, 22.0% to LNP and 51.0% exhausted.

So far there have been 20 2-party contests reported. The preference flows in those 20 contests in 2012 were 30.0% to Labor, 21.4% to LNP and 48.6% exhausted. The preference in the same 20 electorates in 2015 are 53.5% to Labor, 14.5% to the LNP and 32.0% exhausted.

On first preferences the LNP led in 51 seats to Labor's 35, but Labor has won 44 seats to the LNP's 42. Labor has come from behind to win in nine electorates. Those electorates are Barron River, Brisbane Central, Bundaberg, Ferny Grove, Maryborough, Mount Coot-tha, Mundingburra, Pumicestone and Springwood.

After a decade in which the number of voters showing preferences has declined consistently, in 2015 the trend has reversed. While the LNP continued to recommend 'just vote 1', both labor and the Greens moved back to recommending lists of preferences in most seats, and the union movement ran a strong 'Put the LNP last' campaign.

It looks like those preferences recommendations, and the decisions of voters themselves to number more squares, have been the difference between Labor winning the 2015 election and the LNP being returned.

On my back of the envelope calculations, Labor has won Bundaberg, Ferny Grove and Springwood on the extra preference flows. That's the difference between Annastacia Palaszczuk and Lawrence Springborg forming the next government of Queensland.

(I'll re-do these calculations in future days.)

So optional preferential voting is not 'de-facto first past the post' as some dismiss it. Preferences can still make a difference.

Come the NSW election in March, there will be much interest in whether Labor and the Greens move away from the just vote 1 how-to-votes they issued in 2011.

If they do, the Queensland experience shows it could tilt the balance against the Baird government in some key seat, and could make a difference to the final seat in the Legislative Council.

Who Should the Queensland Governor Appoint as Premier?

While Campbell Newman continues as caretaker Premier of Queensland, the point will be reached this week where the Governor will have to anoint someone as the new Premier.

Writs for key electorates will be returned in the next few days, revealing the final composition of the Queensland Parliament.

At this stage the numbers look certain to be Labor 44, LNP 42, Katter's Australian Party 2 with the final seat held by Independent Peter Wellington.

With Labor having gained support to form government from Independent Peter Wellington, Annastacia Palaszczuk has argued she has sufficient support to be sworn in as Premier.

The situation is similar to South Australia in 2002 and Tasmania in 1989 where Liberal governments lost their majorities at elections and Labor came to an agreement in the aftermath to form government courtesy of cross bench members.

In the circumstances both SA Liberal Premier Rob Kerin and Tasmanian Premier Robin Gray refused to resign.

Kerin forced the Labor agreement with Independent Peter Lewis to the floor of the House of Assembly before his government resigned after defeat on election of the new Speaker.

Gray tried to go back to the polls without parliament sitting and his government fell shortly after the new parliament met. 

Given the parliamentary numbers, the LNP Premier would be entitled to advise the Governor that he should continue in office. With the parliamentary numbers being unclear, the Governor would permit this with the government remaining in caretaker mode pending the new parliament sitting to test the numbers.

The problem for the LNP is that Premier Campbell Newman lost his seat at the election. He can't be re-commissioned pending a test of his numbers in Parliament because he won't be a member of parliament.