The Weather Man

Severe weather warnings WA

Severe Weather Warning for damaging winds, heavy rainfall and abnormally high tides for people in the Central West, Lower West, South West, South Coastal, South East Coastal, Great Southern and Central Wheat Belt forecast districts

Issued at 9:59 am WST on Friday 13 March 2015.

For people in parts of WA during SATURDAY southwest of a line from Jurien Bay to Paynes Find to Southern Cross to Hopetoun. This includes people in, near or between the following towns: Perth metropolitan area, Mandurah, Jurien Bay, Dalwallinu, York, Southern Cross, Narrogin, Katanning, Bridgetown, Bunbury, Busselton, Margret River and Albany.

People bounded by an area from Jurien Bay to Paynes Find to Kalbarri and along the coast to Jurien Bay, including people in near or between Kalbarri, Northampton and Geraldton are advised to refer to the latest TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE found at www.bom.gov.au/cyclone.

National: Tropical Cyclones to renew rain potential.

Tropical Cyclones are expected to form off the far northern Queensland coast tonight and Pilbara Coast of Western Australia by Thursday with both systems expected to produce significant rainfall in nearby areas.

In Queensland the heavier of the falls will be along the tropical coast north from about Townsville  and across the far north of the Peninsula. At this stage the forecast models suggest the Cyclone will approach the coast through the week but then move back into the Coral Sea from Saturday. See all the latest here: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/index.shtml

In Western Australia the Cyclone is expected to cross the southern Pilbara coast late in the week then move down the coast in a weakening mode but spreading widespread rain with it, potentially reaching Perth on the weekend with the consensus forecast predicting widespread falls of 10 to 20mm so will be worthwhile watching.

Any rainfall elsewhere including the Northern Territory is expected to be mostly patchy and light although a trough through New South Wales and Queensland could trigger some localised heavier falls this week.

Drier conditions in the Northern Territory are forecast to lead to potentially extreme heatwave conditions across the northern districts, see the heatwave outlook from the Bureau of Meteorology here: http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/heatwave/index.shtml

National: Series of fronts head for Tasmania.

Cold fronts will cross Tasmania on Saturday, Monday and Wednesday but a ridge of high pressure sitting across the southern mainland is protecting it from the main effects of the systems with showers mostly confined to the more southern and exposed coast of Victoria. Falls in Tasmania will be more widespread in the west but are not expected to be as heavy as the previous fronts but showers. Winds will also be fresh to strong and gusty ahead of and with each of the changes.

Showers and thunderstorms will also be widespread in the western areas of the Kimberley, Pilbara and Gascoyne in Western Australia with some locally heavy falls but it is expected to remain dry for most of the South West Land Division.

A trough in Queensland will remain active as an upper level disturbance moves across the state but the better of the fall are expected along parts of the Peninsula 

 

National: Coral Sea lows to watch for next week.

Forecast models are all suggesting two tropical lows developing in the Coral Sea by early next week which will be watched closely for any significant development or movement towards the Queensland coast. Ahead of any increase in weather a trough through the state will produce increasing showers and thunderstorms as an upper level low also approaches from the south but the heaviest and more widespread falls are more likely through the new week and generally along the coast and ranges north of about Mackay.

Elsewhere, the next 4 days will see little change in conditions with continuing periods of showers in western Tasmania, thundery showers away from the South West Land Division of Western Australia and north west of the Northern Tablelands with mostly sunny and dry conditions elsewhere.

 

 

National: Heat slow to disperse in parts of Queensland

Southern Queensland towns will start to feel some relief from very hot conditions tomorrow with Charleville expected to record its first maximum below 39 degrees since the 22nd of February with Thursday tops expected to be 37 degrees and down to 33 on Friday. The heat will not dissipate further north though with Longreach not dropping below maximums of 40 degrees until Sunday when 39 is forecast and the slow slide will only fall to 36 as a maximum on Tuesday.

Rainfall in the next four days will be heaviest about the west coast of Tasmania in a moist north west to south west wind flow with some locally heavy falls although very little of the rain will reach the central, eastern or north east areas of the state. The west coast districts north of Geraldton (WA) to Warruwi (NT) will also record widespread falls with thunderstorms but the better of the falls will be in the Pilbara and northern Gascoyne region. The coast and ranges north of Townsville in Queensland through to the northern half of the Peninsula will also record widespread thundery showers but heavier totals will be patchy.

National: First strong seasonal change heading for Tasmania

A cold front will cross Tasmania on Wednesday bringing gusty winds and widespread showers to the western Districts. On Thursday a pool of cold air will follow the change with patchy light snow expected down to 700m about the western and southern mountains before rising to 1200m on Friday and clearing later. It is not unusual for snow at any time of the year in Tasmania but it is a sign that the seasonal shift is slowly developing.

Cooler air behind the change will drop overnight minimums across the ACT and nearby ranges to single figures on Friday and Saturday Morning and the cooler air will push the very hot air over the north of New South Wales and Queensland out of those states but it won't be strong enough to clear it totally with hot conditions returning during the new week.

The monsoon trough remain just to the north of the Continent and there is some possibility that a returning MJO pulse could see it develop further next week but there is some uncertainty with this forecast but if it does return over Australian Waters the potential for Tropical Cyclone activity would increase. See full details here http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/tropnote/tropnote.shtml

National: Hot and dry in Queensland

Queensland will continue a run of hot and dry weather conditions for the remainder of the week through much of the inland with hotter conditions reaching the coast at times. The only areas looking at the potential for accumulated rainfall totals in excess of 10mm are about the Cape north of Weipa.

Rainfall will be heavy at times in parts of Western Australia and northern districts of the Northern Territory with a deep trough triggering widespread showers and thunderstorms for much of the remainder of the week. The South West Land Division will be sitting on the wrong side of the trough with very little shower or thunderstorm activity apart from the far north and east.  

The west coast of Tasmania is expected to collect some falls in the 20 to 40mm range as a series of relatively weak cold fronts cross the regions but little of the rain will reach the east coast or the mainland states with patchy light falls at best from these systems.

National: Heavy rainfall possible with thunderstorms in the west.

A trough has been active across Western Australia this week producing widespread rainfall but a cold front will draw this trough into the eastern states through the weekend.

Another trough will rapidly develop and deepen along the west coast from Sunday so there will be no respite from the thundery conditions and forecast models are suggesting the potential for some widepsread moderate to heavy falls across parts of the state. Severe thunderstorm warnings have been issued most days this week and this will probably continue through the weekend and into next week.

 

The thundery showers in the eastern states will become more patchy in the coming days although a trough will still linger over the eastern inland. For New South Wales weakening cold fronts will combine with the trough to trigger some activity but it is expected to remain fairly patchy. Showers and thunderstorms in Queensland tend to contract to the north west by Monday.

National: Fronts return to the south east.

A series of cold fronts will cross Tasmania and parts of the south east mainland with one today, Saturday and then overnight Monday and Wednesday. None of these systems is expected to be overly significant with mostly light and patchy shower activity as the fronts move through but it is the first period in several months where a series of fronts has reached into the mainland.

Saturday's front will result in a cooler change for Adelaide after high 30 temperatures on Friday and mid 30 Saturday with most other south east cities and towns will noticing a fairly significant cooling.

Troughs will remain active in parts of the east, north and the western mainland although much of the activity will be inland of the coast leaving Sydney, Brisbane and Perth generally dry. A trough and the remnants of Saturday's cold front will cross Sydney and NSW on Sunday with a few showers and possible storms developing through the day.  

National: Troughs maintain unsettled conditions

Troughs will trigger further unsettled conditions across parts of the mainland in the coming days with a northern and western trough the most active. The better of the rainfall should be in the tropics including much of the Cape in Queensland the Top End of the Northern Territory and much of Inland Western Australia although the more widespread falls in excess of 20mm will be mostly confined to the tropics. 

Hot air will continue to sit across the western Inland of Queensland with well above average maximum temperatures forecast for the next 4 to 6 days. The north of South Australia and north west of New South Wales will also experience hot conditions although a trough and cooler change will provide some relief to South Australia after Saturday and into New South Wales later Monday.