State legislative elections, 2017
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In the 50 states, there are 99 state legislative chambers and 7,383 state legislative seats. In November 2017, three of these 99 chambers will hold general elections for a total of 220 state legislative seats—roughly 3 percent of the total legislative seats in the country. Special state legislative elections are also taking place in 2017. More special elections tend to take place in odd-numbered years than in even years. Read more about 2017 special elections here.
Of the three chambers holding general elections in 2017, two are in New Jersey: the New Jersey General Assembly and the New Jersey State Senate. The other chamber is the Virginia House of Delegates. Legislators in the Virginia House and New Jersey Assembly serve two-year terms. Legislators in the New Jersey Senate serve four-year terms, except in the first term of a new decade, which only lasts for two years. Most states hold general elections for state legislatures in even years. In 2016, for example, 86 chambers held general elections for a total of 5,923 legislative seats—about 80 percent of the total legislative seats in the country. Four states, however—Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey and Virginia—hold elections in odd-numbered years. Legislators in Louisiana and Mississippi are elected to four-year terms, with elections scheduled for 2019.
In New Jersey and Virginia, high-profile gubernatorial races will coincide with their states' legislative elections in 2017. Both contests are for open seats due to term-limits prohibiting the incumbents from running for re-election. The incumbent governors are Chris Christie (R) in New Jersey and Terry McAuliffe (D) in Virginia.
A lot is at stake in the 2017 state legislative elections. New Jersey could become a Democratic trifecta, meaning Democrats could end up with control of the legislature and governor's mansion. Virginia, on the other hand, could become a Republican trifecta. The 2017 state legislative elections also have a national subtext as the first general legislative elections to take place since Republican Donald Trump took office as president of the United States in January 2017. Historically, the party that holds The White House has tended to lose seats in state legislatures. The 2017 state legislative elections may offer a preview of whether that historical trend will continue into Trump's presidency.
New Jersey
- Senate partisan breakdown:
(24) 
(16)
- Senate partisan breakdown:
- Assembly partisan breakdown: (52) (28)
- Assembly partisan breakdown:
In New Jersey, all 40 seats in the state Senate and all 80 seats in the state Assembly are up for election in 2017. New Jersey's state senators serve four-year terms, except in the first term of a new decade, which only lasts for two years. State Assembly members are elected to a two-year term. Legislators in New Jersey are not subject to term limits. The general election will take place on November 7, 2017. A primary election will take place on June 6, 2017. The filing deadline for Democratic and Republican candidates was April 3, 2017. The filing deadline for independent candidates is June 6, 2017.[1]
A brief history of New Jersey politics
New Jersey leaned politically to the left in most elections leading up to the November 2017 elections. Democrats took control of both chambers of the state legislature in 2001 and held on to them in every election between then and 2015, the last time one of the chambers was up for election prior to 2017. In 2015, Democrats picked up four seats in the Assembly, giving them a 52-28 majority. In 2013, Democrats maintained their 24-16 majority in the state Senate. The governor’s mansion followed slightly different trends in elections between 2001 and 2017. Republicans controlled the governor’s mansion from 1994 to 2001. Democrats controlled it from 2002 until 2009 when Republican Chris Christie defeated Democratic incumbent Jon Corzine 48.5 to 44.9 percent. Prior to Christie’s win in 2009, Republicans had not won a statewide election in New Jersey since 1997.[2] Christie was re-elected in 2013 with 60 percent of the vote. At the beginning of 2017, New Jersey was one of 19 states under divided government.
At the federal level, New Jersey backed Democratic presidential candidates in every election between 1992 and 2016. Democrat Hillary Clinton won the state in 2016 with 55.5 percent of the vote. Two counties in New Jersey—Gloucester and Salem—are Pivot Counties, which voted for Democrat Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012 but voted for Republican Donald Trump in 2016. Ballotpedia identified a total of 206 Pivot Counties throughout the country. Following the 2016 elections, Democrats held seven out of New Jersey’s 12 congressional seats in the House and both Senate seats.
| New Jersey General Assembly | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 3, 2015 | After November 3, 2015 | |
| Democratic Party | 48 | 52 | |
| Republican Party | 31 | 28 | |
| Vacancy | 1 | 0 | |
| Total | 80 | 80 | |
| New Jersey State Senate | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 4, 2013 | After the 2013 Election | |
| Democratic Party | 24 | 24 | |
| Republican Party | 16 | 16 | |
| Total | 40 | 40 | |
Virginia
Virginia will not hold any state Senate elections in 2017.
- House partisan breakdown: (34) (66)
- House partisan breakdown:
In Virginia, all 100 house seats are up for election in 2017. Virginia's state delegates are elected to a two-year term that begins on the second Wednesday in January after the election. The general election will take place on November 7, 2017. A primary election will take place on June 13, 2017. The filing deadline for partisan candidates was March 30, 2017. The filing deadline for non-party candidates is June 13, 2017.[3]
A brief history of Virginia politics
Virginia developed a reputation as a political battleground state in elections leading up to the November 2017 elections, meaning electoral competition between Democrats and Republicans was more intense than in other states, and the outcomes of elections were often difficult to predict. For example, in gubernatorial elections between 1993 and 2013, Democrats and Republicans won three races each. Similarly, in presidential elections between 1992 and 2016, Republican candidates won four times, while Democratic candidates won three times. In 2016, Virginia was a closely watched battleground state in the presidential election. Democrat Hillary Clinton defeated Republican Donald Trump 49.7 to 44.4 percent. When those same results are broken down by state legislative House districts, Clinton defeated Trump in 51 out of 100 districts, based on data compiled by Daily Kos. When the presidential results are broken down by congressional districts, Trump won six districts, while Clinton won five. Five counties in Virginia—Buckingham, Caroline, Essex, Nelson, and Westmoreland—are Pivot Counties, which voted for Democrat Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012 but voted for Trump in 2016. Ballotpedia identified a total of 206 Pivot Counties throughout the country.
The state Senate followed patterns similar to those of statewide races in Virginia in elections prior to 2017. Republicans took control of the state Senate in 1997 and maintained their majority in every election until 2007. The chamber became tied at 20-20 in 2011, but Republicans won a 21-19 majority in 2015. The House of Delegates, however, deviated from trends found at the statewide level and in the state senate in elections during roughly this same timeframe. Republicans won control of the chamber in 1999 and defended their majority in the eight elections between 2001 and 2015. Republicans came out of the 2015 elections with a 66-34 majority, down slightly from their 67-33 majority heading into the election.
At the beginning of 2017, Virginia was one of 19 states under divided government.
| Virginia House of Delegates | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 3, 2015 | After November 3, 2015 | |
| Democratic Party | 33 | 34 | |
| Republican Party | 67 | 66 | |
| Total | 100 | 100 | |
Special elections
Across the nation, special elections are frequently conducted to fill vacancies in state legislatures. A total of 27 states use special elections to fill legislative vacancies. In two states, Illinois and Indiana, special elections are used in limited circumstances. The rest of the states fill vacancies either through appointments made by the governor of the state or by a commission made up of officials from the former member's party. As of May 2017, 18 state legislative seats have been filled through special elections and another 32 elections have been scheduled in 19 states.
Key races
- Delaware State Senate (February 25, 2017)
- Connecticut State Senate (February 28, 2017)
- Washington State Senate and House of Representatives (November 7, 2017)
State legislatures during the Trump presidency
Heading into the 2017 election, the Republican Party is in a position of dominance in state legislatures. Apart from individual special elections held throughout 2017, the November general elections will be the first test of the impact a Donald Trump presidency will have on down ballot races. Up for election in 2017 are the blue chambers of the New Jersey Legislature and the red Virginia state House. Which direction these three chambers move could offer some insight for what to expect in 2018. The 2018 elections will set the stage for the 2020 elections; which will determine which party controls the redistricting process in many states. This process establishes congressional and legislative district lines, which can influence the competitiveness of those elections in favor of one political party or another until the following census in 2030.
Since World War II, the political party of an outgoing two-term president or consecutive political party administration has lost an average of 450 state legislative seats, excluding President Barack Obama. During President Obama's (D) two terms in office, Democrats experienced a net loss of 968 state legislative seats, the largest net loss of state legislative seats in this category since World War II. The second-largest loss occurred following Dwight D. Eisenhower's two terms in office, when Republicans were handed a net loss of 843 state legislative seats. President Ronald Reagan (R) was the only president to increase his party's number of state legislative seats over his two terms in office, gaining six total seats across all 50 state legislatures.[4]
Click here to read more about changes in state legislative seats during the Obama presidency »
What's at stake
Partisan balance
Heading into the 2017 elections, Republicans hold a majority of state legislative chambers. Sixty-eight chambers are under GOP control, while Democrats hold majorities in 31 chambers.[5]
The following table details partisan balance in all 99 chambers.
| Partisan Control of All 99 State Legislatures | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-election | Post-election | ||||
| Legislative Chamber |
|
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| |
| State senates | 13 | 37 | |||
| State houses | 18 | 31 | |||
| Total: | 31 | 68 | |||
The following table details partisan balance of all 7,383 state legislative seats.
| Partisan Balance of All 7,383 State Legislative Seats | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-election | Post-election | |||||||
| Legislative Chamber |
|
|
 [6]
|
|
|
[6]
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| State senates | 804 | 1,158 | 10 | |||||
| State houses | 2,339 | 3,047 | 25 | |||||
| Total: | 3,143 | 4,205 | 35 | |||||
State government trifectas
Gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia have the opportunity of being competitive races, leaving the possibility of a new trifecta in both states. New Jersey and Virginia are both under divided government heading into the 2017 election. In New Jersey, both legislative chambers are controlled by Democrats and the outgoing Governor Chris Christie (R) is term limited and ineligible to run for re-election. Virginia's Legislature is controlled by Republicans and the outgoing Governor Terry McAuliffe (D) is also prevented from running for re-election due to term limits. It is unlikely that any of the three legislative chambers up for election will see a flip in partisan control. But if either of the gubernatorial seats change hands, it could form a new trifecta.
A trifecta is when one political party holds these three positions in a state's government:
- The governorship
- A majority in the state senate
- A majority in the state house
The concept of the trifecta is important in state lawmaking because in many states, the governor, senate majority leader, and house majority leader play decisive roles in the legislative process.
Heading into the 2017 elections, 31 states are controlled by a trifecta. States with a trifecta include:
- 6 Democratic trifectas[7]
- 25 Republican trifectas
Footnotes
- ↑ New Jersey Secretary of State, "2017 Primary Election Timeline," accessed March 21, 2017
- ↑ Cohen, R. et al. (2015), The Almanac of American Politics. Bethesda, MD:Columbia Books Inc. (page 1163)
- ↑ Virginia Department of Elections, "Candidacy Requirements for the November 7, 2017 General Election," accessed March 21, 2017
- ↑ Politico, "Why Parties Should Hope They Lose the White House," December 1, 2014
- ↑ Although the Nebraska State Senate elects its members in nonpartisan elections, members of the chamber generally function along party lines when it comes to voting and caucusing. Please see Nebraska State Senate partisan affiliation for more information.
- ↑ 6.0 6.1 Third party incumbents and vacancies
- ↑ Includes Connecticut and Delaware, which have senates controlled by Democrats only through tie-breaking votes.
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