Welcome to the 2019 edition of Airbus’ Global Market Forecast (GMF).
This year we explore
the relationship between the World’s cities, their airports and the types of aircraft, in
terms of size and range, which are supporting them.
In the past we have explored the importance of Aviation Mega-Cites (AMCs), particularly for
larger aircraft, but this is just a part of the story. In 2018, there were 66 cities that we
classify as AMCs, they account for 40% of all passengers, up from 29% in 2002, but well over
70% of long-haul passengers and 35% of the short-haul. Many of these cities have developed a
need for more than one airport, some with as many as three or four today. More than 600
airlines or nearly 80% of the world’s airlines operate to AMC airports. A growing share of
passengers are also fying with LCCs from or to these airports, nearly a quarter of AMC
passengers today, from just 8% in 2002. Over this time average aircraft size has grown from
~155 seats in 2002, to ~175 today, as passenger numbers and for some, operational
constraints increase.
But as Shakespeare wrote “What is the city but the people?” About a quarter of the World’s
urban population live in AMCs, and are a focus for more than a quarter of global GDP. Given
both are important drivers for aviation growth it is unsurprising that these cities are key
points in the global aviation network. By the end of our forecast period in 2038, we expect
there to be some 95 aviation mega-cities, with cities like Lagos, Muscat, Rio de Janeiro and
Philadelphia being added to the growing list of AMCs.
Air transport will continue to play a key role in connecting cities and their
people particularly in emerging markets or where cost or simply geography
make alternatives impossible. In doing this commercial aviation contributes
3.6% of global GDP and supports more than 65 million jobs. However,
we recognise that aviation also contributes 2% to 3% of the world’s manmade
emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), with transportation as a whole (cars, trains,
shipping etc.) producing ~24% according to the United Nations Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). So our industry has worked diligently
to limit its impact on the environment. For example aircraft today, are 75%
quieter and 80% more fuel efficient per seat than they were when jets were
becoming a more common sight in cities around the world. But this is by
no means the end of these efforts.
Airbus is conscious of climate change and its responsibility to society
as well as future generations. We have the ambition to continue serving
society’s demand for air travel and transport and to continue delivering
significant social benefits whilst ensuring a sustainable future of air travel.
We hope that you find the 2019 Global Market Forecast informative
and useful. We seek to improve our analyses continually, and your questions,
challenges and suggestions help us advance towards this goal.