Two dreaded coronavirus variants are swiftly overthrowing the previously most-dreaded variant in the US. Their ascendance is making experts worry that the country could see continued outbreaks and resurgences of COVID-19 unless the current sluggish pace of vaccination quickens.
Alpha—the variant formerly known as B.1.1.7 and first identified in the UK—swept the country at the start of the year. It’s estimated to be around 50 percent more transmissible than the version of the pandemic coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, that mushroomed out of Wuhan, China, in 2020. Alpha’s rise in the UK last fall was linked to a surge in cases as the virus variant quickly accounted for more than 90 percent of cases there. Likewise, in the US, Alpha became the predominant strain in a matter of months this year and accounted for around 70 percent of the circulating strains by the end of April.
But according to fresh data, two other variants now threaten Alpha’s reign in the US: Delta (aka B.1.617.2, first detected in India) and Gamma (aka P.1, first detected in Brazil and Japan). Delta is considered the most concerning variant seen yet. Though vaccines are still effective against Delta, the variant is estimated to be 50 percent to 60 percent more contagious than Alpha, and evidence suggests that it may cause more severe disease. When Delta first appeared in the UK at the start of April, it rapidly overcame Alpha and now accounts for around 90 percent of cases. Gamma, on the other hand, is not such a rapid spreader, but it does slightly knock back the effectiveness of vaccines.
According to the data posted online Monday on a preprint server, Delta and Gamma are wasting no time collectively overtaking Alpha in the US, which has already fallen from dominance. Alpha dropped from 70 percent of cases in April to its current low of around 35 percent. In the preprint study, Delta and Gamma collectively made up around 30 percent of all cases in the US as of June 9, with Delta making up around 14 percent of cases and Gamma making up around 16 percent.
Data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention presented in a White House press conference Tuesday estimate that, as of June 19, Delta’s share of cases nationwide is now up to 20.6 percent.
The preprint study, which has not been peer-reviewed, was run by California-based researchers at the genomics company Helix. The company is working with the CDC to help monitor SARS-CoV-2 variants. Helix researchers had data on nearly 244,000 positive SARS-CoV-2 samples collected since January 2021. And they had the genetic sequences of nearly 20,000 virus isolates collected across 747 counties nationwide since April.
The study has limitations, most notably the smaller number of samples collected in recent weeks given a welcomed slowdown in transmission. Though the authors suggest their dataset shouldn’t be biased toward any specific variant, they do note that the samples “do not proportionally represent the different areas of the United States by population.” About 25 percent of the samples were collected from Florida, for instance. However, when they did break-out analyses, they could still see nationwide trends.
Overall, the data was clear that Delta and Gamma are taking over. And Delta in particular is spreading the fastest. It is outpacing Gamma and is set to become the predominant variant in the US, as happened in the UK.
Still, both variants have advantages. When the researchers looked at how the two variants were spreading in various counties, they found that:
The growth curve for [Delta], which is more transmissible but against which vaccines are highly effective, shows faster growth in counties with lower vaccination rates. In contrast, [Gamma], which is less transmissible but against which vaccines have somewhat less efficacy, has a higher prevalence in counties with higher vaccination rates.
The data supports experts’ calls for people to get vaccinated and for vaccinated people to remain vigilant. In the White House press briefing Tuesday, top infectious disease expert Anthony Fauci echoed the concern, calling Delta the “greatest threat” to the country’s path out of the pandemic.
Fauci noted that 34 states have less than 70 percent of their adult populations vaccinated. There’s a “real danger,” Fauci said, that the Delta variant could drive local surges in COVID-19 cases into the fall in places with low vaccination rates.
“Conclusion: We have the tools,” he said, referring to effective vaccines, “so let’s use them and crush the outbreak.”
249 Reader Comments
I don't know how you can read this reporting and decide NOT to get a vaccine.
You think it came from a lab? Great...here is a cheap way to inoculate yourself against a whole branch of Chinese bio weapons.
You think it came from the market? Great...here is a cheap way to inoculate yourself against the next one...cause the market is still there.
You don't know where it came from? Great...here is a cheap way to inoculate yourself against it no matter where it came from.
I don't know how you can read this reporting and decide NOT to get a vaccine.
I'm going to stop you right there.
Reading is for communists.
Because Marjorie Taylor Greene says she doesn't believe in "that" kind of science. Apparently only Bible-based science is acceptable.
The charlatans spreading antivax disinformation for profit are infuriating, and I wish there was some way to stop them and make them face personal consequences for their actions.
We also shut down the mass vaccination program because nobody was showing up. We had planned to increase capacity to 3000 / day but mid May, the bottom dropped out.
And, of course, here in hamburger red land, masks came off just as fast as you can say 'beer'.
Now, we've restarted the COVID ward, delayed surgeries, recalled all of us extras and still we're shipping people out.
And, of course, we've not restarted mass vaccinations because.....
The vast majority of new COVID cases are the unvaccinated. We've had a few fully vaccinated individuals get hospitalized, but they've all done well and they are people who you would expect not to mount an impressive response to a vaccine - older, multiple medical problems including immunosupression.
Grrrr.
We also shut down the mass vaccination program because nobody was showing up. We had planned to increase capacity to 3000 / day but mid May, the bottom dropped out.
And, of course, here in hamburger red land, masks came off just as fast as you can say 'beer'.
Now, we've restarted the COVID ward, delayed surgeries, recalled all of us extras and still we're shipping people out.
And, of course, we've not restarted mass vaccinations because.....
The vast majority of new COVID cases are the unvaccinated. We've had a few fully vaccinated individuals get hospitalized, but they've all done well and they are people who you would expect not to mount an impressive response to a vaccine - older, multiple medical problems including immunosupression.
Grrrr.
Just remember, the deaths of hundreds of thousands of our fellow citizens is the price we must pay for "freedumb".
/s
Very glad I've been fully Moderna'ed up for almost 2 months now.
Very glad I've been fully Moderna'ed up for almost 2 months now.
Alpha, beta, gamma, delta, in that order. Don't think I've read anything about the "beta" variant.
Very glad I've been fully Moderna'ed up for almost 2 months now.
Yes, they all exist, you can see we are up to lambda now here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2
Edit: Nice colour coded chart at bottom of the page which makes clear their various traits, e.g. your lethality and competitiveness question.
Last edited by Adonis91 on Tue Jun 22, 2021 9:44 pm
*probably not featuring a hot-if-ruthless Asari.
MO Gov Parsons was so desperate to return to "business as usual", he re-opened everything too soon. Knowing FULL WELL that the counties surrounding the popular Lake of the Ozarks tourist attraction were running vaccination rates in the 20% or less range (one county is still only 11% vaxed).
Gee, anyone care to guess which counties are now leading the nation in new infections?
*probably not featuring a hot-if-ruthless Asari.
Charlton Heston is dead…we’ll have to kill the vampires ourselves!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Omega_Man
So the % mix doesn't tell the whole story, as case numbers were also changing over the same time period.
Very glad I've been fully Moderna'ed up for almost 2 months now.
Alpha, beta, gamma, delta, in that order. Don't think I've read anything about the "beta" variant.
Beta is the variant first detected in South Africa.
THANKS ALL!
signed
COVID -19 original,
and NOW a host of new babies!
I don't know how you can read this reporting and decide NOT to get a vaccine.
I'm going to stop you right there.
Reading is for communists.
It's incredibly obvious, isn't it? A foreign substance is introduced into our precious bodily fluids without the knowledge of the individual. Certainly without any choice. That's the way your hard-core Commie works.
The Anadromous household is nervously watching for the cataclysmic closure of borders to Queensland, just in time for the cancellation of our holiday plans.
Edit: And nine minutes later, we're boned. Sigh.
Last edited by Anadromous on Tue Jun 22, 2021 6:21 pm
We also shut down the mass vaccination program because nobody was showing up. We had planned to increase capacity to 3000 / day but mid May, the bottom dropped out.
And, of course, here in hamburger red land, masks came off just as fast as you can say 'beer'.
Now, we've restarted the COVID ward, delayed surgeries, recalled all of us extras and still we're shipping people out.
And, of course, we've not restarted mass vaccinations because.....
The vast majority of new COVID cases are the unvaccinated. We've had a few fully vaccinated individuals get hospitalized, but they've all done well and they are people who you would expect not to mount an impressive response to a vaccine - older, multiple medical problems including immunosupression.
Grrrr.
Just remember, the deaths of hundreds of thousands of our fellow citizens is the price we must pay for "freedumb".
/s
As long as it’s the ones choosing to be idiots paying the price, I’m all for it. The problem is all the other people they’ll happily take along for the ride without a second (or first) thought.
Who's going to make the dystopian Dr. Strangelove film of this time in history?
THANKS ALL!
signed
COVID -19 original,
and NOW a host of new babies!
how is babby formed
They also will answer, ‘Lord, when did we see you hungry or thirsty or a stranger or needing clothes or sick or in prison, and did not help you?’
He will reply, ‘Truly I tell you, whatever you did not do for one of the least of these, you did not do for me.’
—Matthew 25:41–45
I'm not a Christian, but for those who are, it is worth noting that Jesus did not look kindly on self-centeredness and indifference to others. Seems pretty clear to me what he would have said to those who saw their friends and neighbors dying of disease, were given the option to fight it, and said "Nah. Don't want to."
THANKS ALL!
signed
COVID -19 original,
and NOW a host of new babies!
Hah! This makes me wonder if a reverse-psychology advertising campaign along these lines would be effective, where normal public-health messaging has failed...
Many people are spreading antivax information for free. It must be some sort of hobby for them, like scrapbooking or wood-carving those ‘Live, Laugh, Love’ signs you see in the finer dens and breakfast nooks across the country.
We also shut down the mass vaccination program because nobody was showing up. We had planned to increase capacity to 3000 / day but mid May, the bottom dropped out.
And, of course, here in hamburger red land, masks came off just as fast as you can say 'beer'.
Now, we've restarted the COVID ward, delayed surgeries, recalled all of us extras and still we're shipping people out.
And, of course, we've not restarted mass vaccinations because.....
The vast majority of new COVID cases are the unvaccinated. We've had a few fully vaccinated individuals get hospitalized, but they've all done well and they are people who you would expect not to mount an impressive response to a vaccine - older, multiple medical problems including immunosupression.
Grrrr.
Just remember, the deaths of hundreds of thousands of our fellow citizens is the price we must pay for "freedumb".
/s
As long as it’s the ones choosing to be idiots paying the price, I’m all for it. The problem is all the other people they’ll happily take along for the ride without a second (or first) thought.
Pfizer hopes to obtain regulatory approval for their COVID vaccine in patients younger than 12 as early as next year. That should go a long way toward reducing the collateral damage that anti-vax folks are inflicting.
I don't know how you can read this reporting and decide NOT to get a vaccine.
You think it came from a lab? Great...here is a cheap way to inoculate yourself against a whole branch of Chinese bio weapons.
You think it came from the market? Great...here is a cheap way to inoculate yourself against the next one...cause the market is still there.
You don't know where it came from? Great...here is a cheap way to inoculate yourself against it no matter where it came from.
A bunch of young staff in my gym refuse to get vaccinated. When I press them for why? They said they don't think they will get sick now since Covid is declining in the USA, if they get it they wont get very sick, and lastly they dont trust the vaccines.
I gave up trying to convince them, people believe what they want to believe and will seek out news sources to enforce that belief.
Last edited by foofoo22 on Tue Jun 22, 2021 6:34 pm
We should put it in the water supply, wit' da fluouride.
We also shut down the mass vaccination program because nobody was showing up. We had planned to increase capacity to 3000 / day but mid May, the bottom dropped out.
And, of course, here in hamburger red land, masks came off just as fast as you can say 'beer'.
Now, we've restarted the COVID ward, delayed surgeries, recalled all of us extras and still we're shipping people out.
And, of course, we've not restarted mass vaccinations because.....
The vast majority of new COVID cases are the unvaccinated. We've had a few fully vaccinated individuals get hospitalized, but they've all done well and they are people who you would expect not to mount an impressive response to a vaccine - older, multiple medical problems including immunosupression.
Grrrr.
Just remember, the deaths of hundreds of thousands of our fellow citizens is the price we must pay for "freedumb".
/s
As long as it’s the ones choosing to be idiots paying the price, I’m all for it. The problem is all the other people they’ll happily take along for the ride without a second (or first) thought.
Pfizer hopes to obtain regulatory approval for their COVID vaccine in patients younger than 12 as early as next year. That should go a long way toward reducing the collateral damage that anti-vax folks are inflicting.
You expect the under 12 demographic to be safe for the next 6-9 months? damn you are optimistic.
edit: This middle-aged woman otherwise seemed to be intelligent and competent -- a high-functioning businessperson. The lack of understanding of basic science in a person who can intelligently talk about engine and brake performance, about how a catalytic converter cleanses the exhaust, etc. is frightening to me. She didn't just memorize stuff about cars she _knew_ how it works. I overheard her during a previous visit explaining financial models to a different manager.
Last edited by dwl-sdca on Tue Jun 22, 2021 6:53 pm
Very glad I've been fully Moderna'ed up for almost 2 months now.
Alpha, Beta, Gamma and Delta are the first four numbers of the Greek alphabet. A is for Alpha, and is the variant from Great Britain. B would be Beta, and is the variant from South Africa. C would be Gamma, and is the variant from Brazil. D would be Delta, and is the variant from india. E would be Epsilon, and was from California but seems to have been squashed by Alpha. F would be Zeta, is in Rio de Janeiro, but has not got a foothold anywhere else.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_ ... menclature
I'm very frustrated by all the Americans who are not getting vaccinated, but wouldn't this hypothetical very vaccine-evasive variant be likely to evolve somewhere in the world regardless of how well the US vaccination drive was going? It's going to take a long time to get enough of the entire world vaccinated as-is; there'll be many pockets of the sort you're concerned about all around the globe, albeit many of them may be due to lack of access rather than buillheadishness (not that every vaccine holdout here is due to bullheadishness).
I have a feeling that boosters are creeping towards "definitely going to be needed" rather than the current thoughts of "may be needed, we'll see how future variants react", but is there anything to suggest that a variant would arise suddenly that even the mRNA vaccines would be rendered useless by? Pfizer and Moderna have held up very well against the four major variants so far; IIRC, the worst they've been knocked down is from ~95% efficacy against any noticeable illness to ~88%. I realize many people will not get an mRNA vaccine, but I also don't know if adenovirus-based vaccines would be any more likely to have the bottom fall out of their effectiveness.
You must login or create an account to comment.