Silo lids and underground facilities.
and I use satellite images from and to look closer at China’s suspected missile silos. fas.org/blogs/security
CNN ran a story about it this morning: edition.cnn.com/2021/11/02/pol
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Hans Kristensen
@nukestrat
Director, Nuclear Information Project,
Federation of American Scientists.
Write Nuclear Notebook and SIPRI world nuclear forces overview.
Opinions are my own.
Hans Kristensen’s Tweets
Rand Paul may be (partly) right about NATO and Ukraine. By
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Interesting report about value of Starlink satellites in Ukraine war.
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"I want to say one thing: @elonmusk's Starlink is what changed the war in #Ukraine's favour. #Russia went out of its way to blow up all our comms. Now they can't. Starlink works under Katyusha fire, under artillery fire. It even works in Mariupol."
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Why would Putin exchange US former marine for a drug smuggler? Desperate for some positive news?
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NEWS: President Biden confirms the release of Trevor Reed, a former U.S. Marine, from Russian detention.
Reed was held by Russian authorities for 985 days and was exchanged this morning for Russian drug smuggler Konstantin Yaroshenko in a prisoner swap.
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Lest we forget, the JCPOA is a nuclear deal. Designed to address a decades long nuclear crisis and block Iran’s pathways to nuclear weapons. The imperative of restoring the deal's guardrails is getting lost in the debate about the political cost of delisting the IRGC. 2/
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Interesting to see SS-29 (Sarmat, RS-18) ICBM production indicates deployed number will be slightly lower than number of SS-18. Assuming some are for spares/tests & source didn’t just pick from our numbers. Probably result of Avangard use of some silos.
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. on 2020/21 GOP coup attempt: “Unlike 9/11 [where we learned from it and got better], it’s the opposite. The lesson they’ve learned is that their coup wasn’t successful and we have to make sure that next time, when we lose the election, that it is successful.”
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"It's so clear that so many of my Republican colleagues...they don't believe in democracy, the idea that a majority wins. In fact, they are opposed to that. And they're now more comfortable with violence than they are with voting" - @RepSwalwell w/ @NicolleDWallace
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Very interesting discussion here about the future status/role of Russia in the context of SECDEF Austin’s statements about weakening Russia beyond Ukraine war. Try to engage in this discussion without demonizing other views. It’s very important to think through.
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Some very interesting discussion around this exchange between me and @shashj. I will offer a detailed take at a later opportunity (soon) but let me briefly summarise what I see as the problem with our "long game". We lack what George H.W. Bush famously called "the vision thing." twitter.com/DrRadchenko/st…
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This is a very underrated article by one of the brilliant intellectuals of our age. We do not have a long-term Russia strategy, and it's as simple as that. And we need to start thinking what this strategy might look like. (No, "weakening Russia" is not a long-term strategy).
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Blaming Russians for Putin's war "unwittingly gives him the legitimacy to speak on behalf of the Russian people," writes Ivan Krastev.
"Worse, it justifies his twisted narrative that the only Russia the west can tolerate is a weak or defeated one."
ft.com/content/5e357d
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After my report that RAF Lakenheath is getting nuclear weapons upgrade, Green MP asks UK government if that’s true. MOD doesn’t want to say anything. questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-questi
But the information is already public. Here’s my article: fas.org/blogs/security
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Swedish paper says Sweden & Finland have agreed to submit requests simultaneously, potentially next month, if they decide to join NATO. expressen.se/nyheter/finlan
Another says US/UK have promised Sweden security guarantee during application process. aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/MLrM
#NATO
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The US has gone to extraordinary lengths to keep the war inside Ukraine, and keep American combatants out. But Sec Austin’s goal of weakening Russia so it could never invade again marks a change in American strategic objectives. nytimes.com/2022/04/25/us/
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US sanction strategy appears to expand beyond Ukraine war:
“sanctions and export controls…are directly targeted at Russia's defense industry to undercut Russia's economic and military power to threaten and attack its neighbors." cnn.com/2022/04/25/pol
#RussianUkrainianWar
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“North Korea’s largest-known intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) appeared at the country’s long-anticipated military parade on Monday, according to DPRK state media. ”
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My favorite photo from USS Triton 1960 submerged world circumnavigation is photo of Filipino fisherman Rufino Baring, who on 1 April 1960 saw a periscope near his canoe. Sub crew was trying to spot Magellan monument on Mactan Island in narrow straits. generalist.academy/2021/05/18/und
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#OTD in 1960, USS Triton completed the first submerged circumnavigation of the world while under command of CAPT Edward Beach, Jr. Starting and ending at the St. Peter and Paul Rocks in the Atlantic, the Triton traveled 26,723 nautical miles in 60 days and 21 hours.
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Recently returned from long deployment in Europe, B-52H bomber (60-0044) is flying interesting mission off California under callsign FEAR12.
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Poll says American’s largely support what Biden administrtation had been/is doing in supporting Ukraine. Few favor deploying troops to Ukraine but large majority believes NATO is a good thing for the US. apnorc.org/projects/most-
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Sources said to have told Finnish daily that Swedish government has asked Finland that potential application to join NATO should be submitted simultaneously by the two countries. svt.se/nyheter/inrike
That’s different than report last week. defensenews.com/global/europe/
#NATO
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Interesting interview with in about the effects of Putin’s attack on Ukraine for the world nuclear order. thebulletin.org/2022/04/siegfr
#RussianUkrainianWar
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“The US has not seen any indication Russia has made any moves to prepare nuclear weapons for use during the” war in Ukraine. And even though it can’t be ruled out, one of the sources “put the chances of use at around 1%.” cnn.com/2022/04/20/pol
#RussianUkrainianWar
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World military expenditure reached an all-time high of $2.1 trillion in 2021, the seventh consecutive year that spending increased. New SIPRI data out now.
Press Release ➡️ bit.ly/3LfE92X
French ➡️ bit.ly/3saWYx1
Swedish ➡️ bit.ly/3MwygyN
#GDAMS2022
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Wild to see how nonchalant former SACEUR Breedlove is about putting NATO troops in Ukraine. What’s his plan if they are attacked? He couldn’t pull back but would have to retaliate. And then? He even invokes NATO nukes. thetimes.co.uk/article/genera
#RussianUkrainianWar
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Not a bad day. Two right-wing populists defeated in Europe. France’s Le Pen reuters.com/world/europe/m and Slovenian Prime Minister Janez Jansa apnews.com/article/europe
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PHEW!!!
Macron wins re-election, defeats far-right candidate Le Pen. reuters.com/world/europe/m
GIF
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Rather, it’s about whether Putin’s war in Ukraine means risk of conventional attack on Finland/Sweden has increased significantly, and whether NATO membership is the best way to shape security situation in Northern Europe.
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I don’t think issue for Sweden/Finland is avoiding nuke attack by staying outside NATO. That boat has sailed. Nor do I see why preemptive nuke strike would be Putin’s “only option” or give Russia “chance of surviving a nuclear war…better than the west.”
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Big electric car show at our local park. The new Rivian pickup truck created quite a buzz. ⚡️
#Rivian #ElectricCars
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Talk about space karma! A Russian space craft has to fire its engines to save the international space station from debris created by a Russian ASAT weapon five months ago. (GIF not related.)
GIF
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The Progress MS-18 cargo ship (docked to the ISS Zvezda module) fired its engines at 1324:33 UTC for 657s to raise the ISS orbit and dodge a debris object.
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Very interesting video explainer from on why two Ukrainian anti-ship missiles were able to sink the Russian Black Sea fleet flag ship.
#RussianUkrainianWar
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Here are my reflections on the sinking of Moskva. I think Russian weapons have a general problem with a user hostile UI and cumbersome manual procedures. Operator fatigue could explain how two subsonic missiles beat the ship's defense systems. youtu.be/gaiVjJWOUWE
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One troublesome development in this and last year’s NNSA budget requests is that transparency is significantly reduced compared with 2021 and earlier years: The entire section with detailed cost data on stockpiled warheads has been deleted and categories renamed.
#transparency
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Decision to axe SLCM-N is good because:
1. Redundant capability
2. Distraction for nuke mod workload
3. Funding competition
4. Burden SSN mission
5. Reverse tac nuke retirements
6. Return to tac nuke strategy
7. Violate PNI pledge
8. Revive overseas nuclear allergy
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Also, B83-1 Megaton bomb is sustained for now - probably until B61-12 is fielded - but there is no mentioning of life-extension.
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Excellent news: The Biden administration’s FY2023 has $0 for the warhead for the new nuclear sea-launched cruise missile proposed by the Trump administration. energy.gov/sites/default/
Well done!
Get ready for Republicans/military trying to reinstate it...
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Dissapointing (but not surprising) to see UK tabloid Daily Express shamelessly stealing my scoop about the nuclear upgrade at RAF Lakenheath without giving credit.
Here is the link to my article: fas.org/blogs/security
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We haven’t seen this for a while: Brits sending their ambassador back to Ukraine and spy plane deep into Black Sea.
#RussianUkrainianWar
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Other than technology, tell me what has changed.
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While not explicit in this article, the result of the Weapons Generation Facility to be built at Ellsworth AFB is that nukes will be added to the base (and 2 others). B-21 will carry B61-12 and LRSO. airforcemag.com/some-b-21-bomb
I wrote about that in 2020: fas.org/blogs/security
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