Complexity

In this master thesis, the question is explored of how complexity theory can inform and challenge the study of organizations. Complexity theory researches complex social and natural systems and the phenomena to which they give rise, such as emergence, adaptiveness, self-organization and complexity. It has been suggested that (human) organizations are complex systems, being composed of many actors which, through local interactions, generate emergent behavior on the level of the organization as a whole. If this is true, it challenges many of the – implicit - assumptions we hold when thinking and writing about organizations. Drawing on complexity scholars and organization theorists such as Ralph Stacey, Paul Cilliers, and Edgar Morin, I analyze and critically evaluate (1) How complexity theory has been used in organizations studies so far (2) What theoretical and ethical consequences the insights from complexity theory hold for the way we think about organizations (3) What a theory of organization rooted in complexity studies could look like (4) How professionals working with organizations can develop an attitude that allows them to better deal with complexity in their practice. I conclude that complexity theory has important consequences for the way we think and work in organizations, proposing an approach which is not aimed at reducing complexity for those involved, but at engaging it from an attitude which is both modest and reflective.

My thesis was awarded with the Leo Polak Thesis Prize 2014 (second prize).

Disclaimer:
This literature extract was gathered purely and subjective according the interests of the author (Manfred Bundschuh). Usually there were complete sentences from the original transferred. Especially the Table of Contents is my invention, elaborated 30 years after the excerption of the text, in order to facilitate the readers orientation. There's no guarantee for correctness.

Literaturauszug aus Humberto R. Maturana/ Francisco J. Varela: Der Baum der Erkenntnis - Wie wir die Welt durch unsere Wahrnehmung erschaffen - die biologischen Wurzeln des menschlichen Erkennens, Bern u.a. 1987

1. Vorwort der Autoren             1
2. Vorwort des Übersetzers     2
3. Die große Versuchung   2 
3.1 Das Erstaunliche des Auges   3
3.2 Der große Skandal           3
4. Erklärung           3
4.1 Die Organisation des Lebendigen   4
4.2 Das Erscheinen der Lebewesen   4
4.3 Autonomie und Autopoiese   5
4.4 Geschichte: Fortpflanzung und Vererbung   5
4.5 Vorgänge bei der Reproduktion   5
5. Entstehungsweisen von Einheiten   5
5.1 Replikation                   5
5.2 Kopie                   6
5.3 Reproduktion           6
5.4 Die zelluläre Reproduktion           6
5.5 Reproduktive Vererbung           6
6. Das Leben der Metazeller   7
6.1 Strukturelle Koppelung   7
6.2 Lebenszyklen           8
6.3 Die Organisation der Metazeller   8
6.4 Das natürliche Driften der Lebewesen   9
6.5 Determination und strukturelle Koppelung   9
7. Ontogenese und Auslese 10
7.1 Evolution als natürliches Driften 10
7.2 Voraussagbarkeit und Nervensystem 11
7.3 Die Gratwanderung         11
8. Verhalten und Nervensystem 12
8.1 Nervensystem und Erkenntnis 12
8.2 Neuronale Struktur         12
8.3 Das interneuronale Netzwerk 13
8.4 Operationale Geschlossenheit des Nervensystems 13
8.5 Plastizität         14
8.6 Angeborenes und erlerntes Verhalten 14
9. Erkenntnis und Nervensystem 14
9.1 Die sozialen Phänomene         15
9.2 Soziale Phänomene und Kommunikation 15
10. Semantische Beschreibungen 16

Vorwort der Autoren: Wir werden nämlich eine Sicht vortragen, die das Erkennen nicht als eine Repräsentation der "Welt da draußen" versteht, sondern als ein andauerndes Hervorbringen einer Welt durch den Prozeß des Lebens selbst. Um dieses Ziel zu erreichen, werden wir einer an streng logischem Vorgehen orientierten Route der Entwicklung von Konzepten und Ideen folgen, auf der jedes Konzept auf vorange-gegangenen Konzepten aufbaut, bis das Ganze zu einem unzerteilbaren Netzwerk geworden ist .... Als Ausgleich für die vom Leser erwartete Anstrengung haben wir das Buch durch zahlreiche Illustrationen aufgelockert-auch, weil wir immer wieder die alte Erfahrung bestätigt gefunden haben, daß ein Bild oft mehr sagt als tausend Worte. Außerdem haben wir die zentralen Begriffe in ein "vernetztes" Diagramm eingeschrieben, das die Route unserer Entdeckungsreise darstellt.

After 15 months of writing (part time  ) and four months of editing, indexing, etc. today I can announce that my book ‘Demystifying Project Control’ is available from Amazon.
Whether you are working in project control or indeed any other discipline, on a small or mega project, in any industry or type of organisation, in this book you will read almost everything you need to know about project control. You will be told about truths and issues that are not readily discussed and be given a large number of examples that are not always easily accessible.


It is available for readers to purchase here or a link to Amazon through my website: www.danton-progm.co.uk
My huge thanks to all those that along the line of my 30+ years’ career in Project Management have contributed to what I have become and to those that in the last four months have helped and encouraged me deliver the final product.


All this and more will be uncovered through:
• Explaining what is Project Control.
• Describing how the department should be structured, within projects or organisations.
• Explaining how to go about setting up the processes, at project or organisational level.
• Handling of interfaces with other disciplines and departments.
• Looking at the support it should provide at all levels.
• Describing the software systems used and how these are to be integrated.
• Supporting the Knowledge Management process.
• Talking about the expected outputs, how these should be delivered and the issues to be addressed.
• Explaining the effects of complexity on the function as well as on one of its major outputs - reporting.


Testimonials for my book:

“Project Control is much underrepresented in the canon of project management literature. When it is addressed it is often simply through narrow discussion of the various tools and techniques that can be used. In this book Dimitris Antoniadis uses his considerable experience in the area to address the big questions: setting up a project controls organisation, embedding the right culture and interfacing with the rest of the corporate organisation. This book will not teach you about the detail of techniques like Earned Value or Time Chainage but it will explain the principles of how to ensure projects are effectively controlled – and that is something that the project management community really needs”.
Adrian Dooley Hon FAPM – Founder and Lead Author – Praxis Framework.


“One of the most of pragmatic knowledge management techniques is to find the person who seems to know everything about a topic and ask them what you need. I think, when it comes to Project Control, Dimitris may be that person. I am hugely impressed by the breadth of what he has covered in Demystifying Project Controls. This is a book to keep to hand, because as a project manager, you’ll find yourself dipping into it on a regular basis”.
Jonathan Norman – Knowledge Manager – Major Projects Association Knowledge Hub.


I met you in June 1999, when I entered the organization of EGNATIA ODOS S.A. as Head of the IT Unit. You were my first manager and I cannot forget your continuous effort to inspire passion to your team to "do things right". Another important best practice you applied and I still follow is to create liaison with every company structure, using delegates who participate regularly in the meetings of other teams or disciplines.

But project management and control has always been your passion. I consider this book a valuable source of unique experiences that can't be found elsewhere. I consider you as "daskalos" since this Greek word means "more than a teacher". I am glad for you and happy to know that you are still active and productive.
T. Iatropoulos Systems Development & Technologies Director. EGNATIA ODOS S.A.



It was time for getting a book that confirms theories in practise !
Zsolt Nyiri Chair, Supervisory Board at ISCM Foundation

Construction projects involve and generate a number of interfaces between the various parties as these come together to deliver the output. Projects are typically characterised by complexity and previous analyses have been conducted mainly from the technical perspective. Only recently the subject of complexity has been linked to non-technical project aspects such as behavioural, social, cultural and interconnections. This paper is set out to describe the initial findings from 31 interviews with construction Project Managers which were carried out as part of an extensive investigation into socio-organisation complexity and its characteristics as this is created by the interconnection structures. In addition to the interviews, a postal survey and five case studies have been carried out all focusing in the areas of selecting project team members, structuring the project team and the management style followed by the Project Managers. Results indicate that complexity although recognised is not defined and is identified predominantly by the control and mechanistic parts of project management processes. Keywords Project Complexity, Complexity Characteristics, Project Performance, Construction

The article introduces recursive ontology, a general ontology which aims to describe how being is organized and what are the processes that drive it. In order to answer those questions, I use a multidisciplinary approach that combines the theory of levels, philosophy and systems theory. The main claim of recursive ontology is that being is the product of a single recursive process of generation that builds up all of reality in a hierarchical fashion from fundamental physical particles to human societies. To support this assumption, I provide the general laws and the basic principles of recursive ontology as well as a semi-formalised model of the theory based on a recursive generative grammar. Recursive ontology not only actively promotes a multidisciplinary investigation of reality, but also can be used as a general framework to develop future domain-specific theories.

The main purpose of this paper is to examine the phenomenon frequently called the “Ubaid expansion” or “Ubaid interaction sphere” in which the material culture of Southern Mesopotamia appears in Upper Mesopotamia and the bordering mountains during the 6th-5th millennium. The paper will also attempt to explain how did the “Ubaid expansion” contribute to the formation of hierarchical societies in Greater Mesopotamia. Indeed, the biggest weakness of the model of expansion (drawn from the subsequent “Uruk expansion”) is that it ignores multiregional character of the Ubaid interaction sphere and describes the culture contact between south and north Mesopotamia as a core-periphery dichotomy. Uruk expansion was probably an actual colonial phenomenon, but it is difficult to use the same argument to explain the “Ubaid expansion”. Several arguments (exchange, colonization, emulation and technology transfer) have been proposed for the widespread dissemination of Ubaid material culture in Upper Mesopotamia. The present paper proposes to outline and discuss these competing arguments in the hope of contributing to the early complex societies literature and to answer how and why the Ubaid expansion emerged.

The main aim of this thesis is to examine wicked problems (WPs) as service design challenges. There is an ongoing debate in the field about designers’ tendency to oversimplify WPs or complexities. Along with this is another question about the tools, methods and strategies for dealing with these problems as design tools and methods were created for relatively simple problems. According to some authors, WPs should be tamed with the tools designed for them, otherwise the process can be painful. Parallel to this, there seems to be lack of knowledge about WP theory within the design field.
Three sub-studies will answer different questions raised by the research gaps and problematisation exposed in the service design and design fields. Sub- study I seeks to fill the research gap of WPs in the service design field through a systematic literature review and by exploring how the two areas relate and what the role of service design in WPs is. Through a desktop literature review, sub-study II investigates the existing tools and strategies to deal with such problems and how service design can benefit from these tools and strategies. Sub-study III applies one of the selected tools (Mess MapTM) in a participatory action research case study by investigating the tool’s advantages and disadvantages in the service design context.
The three sub-studies further clarify the relationship to and role of service design in WPs. The sub-studies point to the research gaps and aim to fill them by providing not only theory, but also practice. The main contribution is the “Iceberg Model of Design Problems” from sub-study I, which was created to aid service designers and those from other design fields related to WPs, such as Transition Design, social design and design for sustainability, in comprehending different levels of complexities. The study also recognises how the borders between disciplines are becoming blurred. This model will aid in approaching each problem level with tools designed for them and help designers embrace the correct mindset or approach. The studies indicate that a collaborative strategy is a key element in dealing with WPs. This thesis argues that moving towards a worldview of complexities within an interpretive (constructivist) paradigm can be essential in dealing with wicked and more complex problems.
The thesis aims to stimulate change in how WPs are approached in the service design field in order to better embrace WPs. It also questions the current funding instruments for research because WPs require more extensive development, possibly lasting for decades, and thus can be difficult to handle simply as research projects. WP development in service design also needs long- term policy-making and collaborative strategies. Finally, the study continues the current academic conversation about how we need to give new students the capacities needed to tackle WPs in the design field.

Deciding whether or not a feasible solution to the Traveling Salesman Problem with Pickups and Deliveries (TSPPD) exists is polynomially solvable. We prove that counting the number of feasible solutions of the TSPPD is hard by showing the problem is #P-complete.

The complex environments of today’s markets makes managing organizations in complexity and turbulence a concern for senior managers, and necessitate developing a dynamic strategic framework to cope with complexity in managing organizations. This paper demonstrates a study that was conducted to value a structured set of management principles and sub-elements by a panel of experts to develop a conceptual framework to manage in complex and very high dynamic environments. The panel consisted of 22 senior level managers of grade “A” companies in the construction industry in Qatar State using a two-round Delphi technique. The study developed two frameworks. The first framework is for managing complexity in the construction sector. The second one is the primary general framework, which forms a basis for a generalized framework for other industries. This study participates in developing valuable management practices in complex environments to tackle uncertainty, unpredictability, disorder, rapid changes and non-linearity, which would be of great help for leaders, senior managers and practitioners who operate in complex environments. Journal: Construction Management and Economics Volume 36, 2018 - Issue 4

ABSTRACT A serendipitous finding during development of an automated “electronic flow chart” system to gather data on ICU patients [1] was the observation of low frequency oscillations in blood pressure that were not explained by systematic variability in the environment. [2] This finding has since been confirmed by others. [3,4] In the present report, hemodynamic data for critically ill surgical patients was continuously collected and visualized on a computer workstation to search for patterns not noted by standard monitoring. With this system, we observed low-frequency periodic oscillations in the cardiac output of ten patients, with regular periodicities of 4 to 280 minutes (average = 34 minutes). The mortality rate in these patients was 40%, while the mortality was only 10.8% in 83 similarly monitored intensive care unit (ICU) patients who did not develop regular oscillations in cardiac output. Interestingly, these oscillatory patterns appear to be associated with inadequate resuscitation of increased metabolic rates. The mathematical definition of “chaos” refers to irregular behavior that appears to be random but is actually deterministic. [5] A surprising finding concerning transitions between states of apparent randomness and order in nonlinear systems is that many systems become more organized after being disturbed. Chaotic behavior in biological systems may represent a normal physiologic state, while the loss of chaotic behavior may herald a pathophysiologic state. [6] The mechanism of the regular low frequency oscillations in cardiac output remains to be determined, but the high mortality rate suggests that it is a pathophysiologic marker, perhaps due to inadequate oxygen delivery in under-resuscitated shock.

During the signal identification process, massive multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) systems must manage a high quantity of matrix inversion operations. To prevent exact matrix inversion in huge MIMO systems, several strategies have been presented, which can be loosely classified into similarity measures and evolutionary computation. In the existing Neumann series expansion and Newton methods, the initial value will be taken as zero as a result wherein the closure speed will be slowed and the prediction of the channel state information is not done properly. In this paper, fish swarm optimization algorithm is proposed in which initial values are chosen optimally for ensuring the faster and accurate signal detection with reduced complexity. The optimal values are chosen between 0 to 1 value and the initial arbitrary values are chosen based on number of input signals. In the proposed work, Realistic condition based channel state information prediction is done by using machine learning algorithm. Simulation results demonstrate that the suggested receiver's bit error rate performance characteristics employing the Quadrature Amplitude Modulation (QAM) methodology outperform the existing Neumann series expansion and Newton methods.

In this article, we propose and study a new three-parameter distribution, called the odd Fréchet inverse Lomax (OFIL) distribution, derived by combining the odd Fréchet-G family and the inverse Lomax distribution. Since Fréchet is a continuous distribution with wide applicability in extreme value theory, the new model contains these properties as well as the characteristics of the inverse Lomax distribution which make it more flexible and provide a good alternative for some well-known lifetime distributions. We initially present a linear representation of its functions and discussion on density and hazard rate function. Then, we study its various mathematical properties. Different estimation methods are used to estimate parameters of OFIL. The Monte Carlo simulation study is carried out to compare the efficiencies of different methods of estimation. The maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method is used to estimate the OFIL parameters by considering three practical data applications...

Offer preparation has always been a specific part of a building process which has significant impact on company business. Due to the fact that income greatly depends on offer’s precision and the balance between planned costs, both direct and overheads, and wished profit, it is necessary to prepare a precise offer within required time and available resources which are always insufficient. The paper presents a research of precision that can be achieved while using artificial intelligence for estimation of cost and duration in construction projects. Both artificial neural networks (ANNs) and support vector machines (SVM) are analysed and compared. The best SVM has shown higher precision, when estimating costs, with mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 7.06% compared to the most precise ANNs which has achieved precision of 25.38%. Estimation of works duration has proved to be more difficult. The best MAPEs were 22.77% and 26.26% for SVM and ANN, respectively.

Hardware and software systems are growing everyday in scale and functionality. This increase in complexity increases the number of subtle errors. Moreover, some of these errors may cause catastrophic loss of money, time, or even in many cases human life. A major goal of ...

Campus Kindergarten in Brisbane, Australia, is a community-based organisation for children and families that has embraced change through the evolution of its internationally acclaimed ‘Sustainable Planet Project’. The centre initiated the project in 1997, introducing a range of new curriculum and pedagogical processes - always with young children at the heart - that have led to improvements in play spaces, reduced waste, lowered water consumption and improved biodiversity. This child-focussed approach is reflected in the way that children’s ideas provide much of the motivation and inspiration for changing to more sustainable practices. A whole centre project on water conservation, for example, was sparked when preschoolers (aged 4 years) articulated their concerns to staff about water use in the sandpit. This paper overviews a recent research project designed to document, examine and highlight the Sustainable Planet Project, to assist centre staff, researchers and others with a commitment to sustainability, to understanding the change processes. An important feature has been the project's slow, sometimes erratic, development that has always added complexity to the teachers’ work. Such change, however, has not been viewed negatively. Complexity theory has helped to explain the project’s evolution and complexity has been embraced as a vehicle for creativity, engagement, critique and ongoing change in this learning organisation. As a consequence, a culture of sustainability now permeates the centre where a strong vision has been translated into small but realistic goals and achievements.

The problem of misuse or loss of natural resources like the forests are due to a limited understanding of the processes that lead to improvements in or deterioration of natural resour ces (E. Ostrom, 2009). This is because the Social-Ecological systems (SESs) are inherently complex, hence the problems related to their use are rarely due to a single cause which complicate the institutional design and change to solve it. It is in this context that the E. Ostrom's SES framework was developed as a tool of diagnostic analysis to understand the complexity embedded into the governance of the SESs (E. Ostrom, 2007). However, the use of the SES framework to identify how institutional change can be stimulated is still at lower level of development (E. Ostrom, 2009). The objective of this paper is to present how institutional change can be studied using SES framework in a concrete SES case study, and how the micro-/macro-relations can be modelled to understand the functionality of the commons in the context of variable patterns of interactions. This paper bases its methodology on the E. Ostrom SES framework theory and its application (E. Ostrom, 2011), and the meta-analysis of 32 case studies of Mexican community forests in the context of the Social-Ecological System Meta-Analysis Database (SESMAD, 2014). As the results, it was identified that: (i) the performance of each case study is based on a complex set of interactions whose patterns of interactions result into desired or undesired outcomes, hence the institutional change should be based on, to set out the configurations of variables of each case which may lead or not to desired outcomes, (ii) based on a case study as a unit of analysis, the micro-/macro-relations can be modeled through the institutional design founded on and fostered by considering the community forests SES as a complex system of variable interactions, whose patterns lead to successful of unsuccessful situations of the resource use. These results share a conception of that each case should not be considered as unique. The successful cases share some attributes whereas the failed cases present a lack of some of those attributes. Thus, a comparative study is necessary. Keywords: Social-Ecological Systems (SESs), Social-Ecological System (SES) framework, variable patterns of interactions, micro-/macro-relations of the commons, case-based meta-analysis.

This paper conceptualizes the teaching and learning of physically active play (PAP) in the early childhood curriculum. The conceptualization emerges from ‘doing complexivist bricolage’ and draws on complexity thinking features and concepts to position teaching and learning in PAP as children and teachers together exploring three different and coupled facets: fundamental movement patterns, group movement activities and group games. The three facets are different and coupled to highlight that they can be viewed as simultaneously separate and inseparable. This
allows us to make sense of each facet and remind us that they are mutually influencing. Exploring fundamental movement patterns means focusing on exploring patterns and variations associated with one or more particular movement skills and balancing skills, and doing so in the context of individual activities, group movement activities or games. Exploring group movement activities involve children moving with their bodies as they engage in rhymes, songs and stories, thereby enabling children to develop both fundamental movement skills and literacy skills. Engaging in group games focuses on supporting children to learn the nature of games as socially constructed activities with some explicit rules agreed upon by players. I position teaching and learning as acts
of joint exploration that embrace diverse learners (children and teachers) and different learning outcomes for individuals. In this joint exploration, the teacher plays two important roles: (1) fostering children’s and their own confidence and competence in PAP and (2) creating conditions
that simultaneously constrain and enable as they follow, generate and sustain children’s interests in their explorations together. This approach enables teachers to respond to children’s interests and co-create learning situations with children in ways that are emergent and meaningful to all.  When used in conjunction with mandated curriculum frameworks, it can open up possibilities for curriculum, teaching and learning for children and teachers.

Most of the IoT-based smart systems require low latency and crisp response time for their applications. Achieving the demand of this high Quality of Service (QoS) becomes quite challenging when computationally intensive tasks are offloaded to the cloud for execution. Edge computing therein plays an important role by introducing low network latency, quick response, and high bandwidth. However, offloading computations at a large scale overwhelms the edge server with many requests and the scalability issue originates. To address the above issues, an efficient resource management technique is required to maintain the workload over the edge and ensure the reduction of response time for IoT applications. Therefore, in this paper, we introduce a metaheuristic and nature-inspired Artificial Bee Colony (ABC) optimization technique that effectively manages the workload over the edge server under the strict constraints of low network latency and quick response time. The numerical results show ...

Due to the advance computer technology, the use of probability distributions has been raised up to solve the real life problems. These applications are found in reliability engineering, computer sciences, economics, psychology, survival analysis, and some others. This study offers a new probability model called Marshall–Olkin Extended Gumbel Type-II (MOEGT-II) which can model various shapes of the failure rate function. The proposed distribution is capable to model increasing, decreasing, reverse J-shaped, and upside down bathtub shapes of the failure rate function. Various statistical properties of the proposed distribution are derived such as alternate expressions for the density and distribution function, special cases of MOEGT-II distribution, quantile function, Lorenz curve, and Bonferroni curve. Estimation of the unknown parameters is carried out by the method of maximum likelihood. A simulation study is conducted using three different iterative methods with different samples ...