Economic Modelling

Paper ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui perubahan struktur ekonomi terhadap kesempatan kerja di Indonesia. Perubahan struktur ekonomi yang dibandingkan dalam paper ini antara tahun 1995 dan 2005. Temuan paper menunjukkan bahwa (1) konstribusi sektor pertanian cenderung menurun di tahun 2005 dibandingkan tahun 1995; (2) konstribusi sektor manufaktur dan jasa cenderung meningkat di tahun 2005 dibandingkan tahun 1995; dan (3) pengganda kesempatan kerja sektor pertanian masih yang terbesar dibandingkan sektor lain meskipun menunjukkan kecenderungan menurun. Saran paper ini, pemerintah perlu menerapkan kebijakan perekonomian yang berdampak pada ketersediaan lapangan kerja sehingga kebijakan tersebut diharapkan dapat menurunkan angka pengangguran dan kemiskinan.

Russian monetary policy has failed persistently to achieve sustained low inflation, both in absolute terms and relative to the peer group of countries similarly exiting from Soviet-style central planning. This paper explores the reasons for this state of affairs by analysing the kind of monetary policy that has been pursued by the central bank during the period 1995 to 2009. Our contribution is to search for a possible transmission channel between the real interest rate, inflation rate, exchange rate, output growth and foreign reserve growth, after having controlled for the effect of oil price inflation. Using a vector autoregressive model in error-correction form and using sign restrictions methodology, we show that the monetary authorities' failure to abate double-digit inflation appears to be driven by the policy of exchange rate targeting, as reflected in our identified exchange rate shocks.

The objective of this work is to develop a mathematical
model for the integration of electric vehicle (EVs) to the
grid. Integrating the EV with the grid would help in simultaneous
charging of numerous EVs and provide peak hour energy to the
grid (from EV). This bi-directional exchange of energy between
the grid and EV results in a complex financial calculations. So a
simple model has been proposed. The energy provided by the EV
to the grid depends on the battery capacity. Battery capacity is
affected by capacity losses (CL). The model includes the possible
cases of CL, such as CL due to battery usage (discharge during
vehicle transportation) and CL due to the grid interaction. The
main cause for a higher per kilometer (Km) transportation cost in
EV, when compared to conventional vehicle, is the high cost of the
battery and its maintenance. In this model, the economic analysis
has been done in such a way that the battery related liabilities do
not become a financial burden to EV owners. The above scenario
has been evaluated for different combinations of charge rate
and discharge rate ranging from to .
Finally the optimal cost of electricity is determined such that the
grid, EV owners, and consumers (EV users) are benefitted.

The mainstream model of homo economicus or "economic man" has been both a major tool for modern economic theory as well as the focus of much criticism and debate. The Dutch Neo-Calvinist tradition can be fruitfully placed into dialogue with neoclassical economics, bringing both challenges to as well as opportunities for cross-disciplinary edification. Neo-Calvinism can both acknowledge the legitimacy as well as the limitations of the neoclassical model, with implications for the use of social scientific models more generally. While affirming the relative legitimacy (or we might say "sovereignty") of homo economicus, the Neo-Calvinist tradition also raises challenges that social scientific models must grapple with, particularly with respect to the latent anthropological and theological assumptions about reality that are inevitably embedded in any model.

This paper examines the strategic commitment behavior of heterogeneous leaders in an endogenous market structure. We demonstrate that each leader's investment level is independent of the other leaders' characters. Furthermore, we show that a leader over-invests (resp. under-invests) when an investment increases (resp. decreases) the leader's marginal profitability. Such an investment always makes leaders employ aggressive strategies in the competition

Climate change is ‘the challenge’ of our times and for the next decades. The biggest impacts are likely to affect the sustainability of agricultural and food systems, both highly vulnerable to continuously changing climatic patterns. Wheat is a strategic crop for food security. It is widely grown worldwide as a rainfed (unirrigated) crop, but the latest research showed that recent world wheat price increases and increasing weather variability is making supplemental irrigation marginally profitable. The proposed study combines the outputs from a general circulation model (GCM), the FAO crop growth model (AquaCrop) and economic modelling to assess the sustainability of irrigated wheat production compared to rainfed, under current climate conditions, and in the future under different climate scenarios. AquaCrop model have been calibrated and validated for winter wheat grown on a
sandy loam soil in the east of England (Bedfordshire). Long‐term observed climate data (1970‐1996) in Cambridge (Cambridgeshire) were used to validate the projected climate data from the GCM. The structural characteristics of the case study are representative of a typical farm of the area, and irrigation costs and the wheat prices for the economic model were calculated assuming current market prices, and sensitivity analysis will assess, in the longer term, the expected variations due to the increase in world wheat prices and the energy costs involved. Results will quantify simulated wheat yields (t ha‐1) and irrigation water requirements (m3 ha‐1) for the baseline and the selected climate change scenarios for both rainfed and irrigated practices. They will also elicit the trade‐offs between different options, according to the sustainability triangle: i) the yield benefits (£ ha‐1), ii) the added value of water (£ m‐3), iii) the global warming potential due to irrigation, and iv) the labour requirements. Covering the three pillars of sustainability, these results would offer a complete and integrated tool for decision makers for the adoption of future sustainable policies.

Major sports events are used increasingly by policy-makers to stimulate economic development. This has resulted in a growth of academic interest in ways of analysing their contribution. Following a review of the literature on the contrasting approaches that have been used, this paper assesses the economic impact of the Beijing Olympics, in particular the tourism impact, using computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelling. To add novelty, it analyses the data under conditions of imperfect competition, an approach that has been used to good effect in other contexts, notably international trade. The findings suggest that staging the Beijing Olympics brought economic benefits to the host economy but that the scale of the impact was not significant compared to the total size of the economy. The welfare impacts of the Beijing Olympics under imperfect competition are shown to be higher than when perfect competition is assumed. This is explained by the pro-competitive effect.

Coevolution in economic systems plays a key role in the
dynamics of contemporary societies. Coevolution operates when,
considering several evolving realms within a socioeconomic system,
these realms mutually shape their respective innovation, replication
and/or selection processes. The processes that emerge from
coevolution should be analyzed as being globally codetermined in
dynamic terms. The notion of coevolution appears in the literature on
modern innovation economics since the neo-Schumpeterian inception
four decades ago. In this Element, these antecedents are drawn on to
formally clarify and develop how the coevolution notion can expand
the analytical and methodological scope of evolutionary economics,
allowing for further unification and advance of evolutionary subfields.

This paper investigates the effects of interest rate and foreign exchange rate changes on Turkish banks' stock returns using the OLS and GARCH estimation models. The results suggest that interest rate and exchange rate changes have a negative and significant impact on the conditional bank stock return. Also, bank stock return sensitivities are found to be stronger for market return than interest rates and exchange rates, implying that market return plays an important role in determining the dynamics of conditional return of bank stocks. The results further indicate that interest rate and exchange rate volatility are the major determinants of the conditional bank stock return volatility.► We investigate the effects of interest and exchange rates changes on banks' stock returns. ► We found that interest and exchange rates changes have negative effect on stock return. ► The major determinants of stock return volatility are interest and exchange rates volatility.

One of the most important reasons to hold a large sporting event is the large potential of an economic windfall. Findings of many studies show that holding large sporting events can bring large positive economic benefits. However, most existing literature assessing the economic impacts of mega-events neither properly considers the impact of costs of building event facilities nor captures physical lega- cies. This research designs a framework to measure both benefits and costs brought by event infra- structure and venues. Then this framework is applied to estimate the economic impact of the 2008 Beijing Olympics using CGE modeling.

This monograph presents a new research field entitled “Economic Simulating”. The mission of economic simulating is to offer academics, policy-makers, and researchers new analytical tools to study the origins, trend, and possible solutions of economic problems from a new perspective. The present monograph, in effect, is a simple and flexible document for the learning and teaching of economic simulating. The general objective of economic simulating is to analyze the impact of economic problems in a specific period of time. This monograph is divided into fifteen chapters. The first chapter reviews the literature framework on economic simulating as a whole. The rest of the chapters will present a serial of new simulators to evaluate the origins, trend, vulnerability, and possible solutions to economic problems. Finally, economic simulating offers a new and dynamic area of research without any methodological or theoretical restriction to study different economic problems anywhere and anytime respectively.

This is an excerpt from my book Freedom of Contract and Paternalism Prospects and Limits of an Economic Approach (New York: Palgrave Macmillan 2012) x + 194 pp. [Perspectives from Social Economics], ISBN 978-0-230-34029-9

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