Expert poll: Mortgage rate trend predictions for August 29 - Sept. 4, 2024
Written by
| Go up | 0% |
|---|---|
| Stay the same | 67% |
| Go down | 33% |
Mortgage rates will stagnate, says the majority of rate watchers polled by Bankrate this week.
Of those polled, 67 percent of respondents predict rates won’t budge, and the remaining 33 percent expect rates to drop. No one predicts rates will rise.
The average 30-year fixed rate was 6.48 percent as of August 28, according to Bankrate’s national survey of large lenders, down from 6.62 the previous week.
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Rate Trend Index
Experts predict where mortgage rates are headed
Week of August 29 - Sept. 4, 2024
| Go up | 0% |
|---|---|
| Stay the same | 67% |
| Go down | 33% |
Even with an inflation data point on the horizon, we might not see much movement in rates in a holiday-shortened week.
— Greg McBride, Bankrate
0% say rates will go up
33% say rates will go down
Heather Devoto
Vice President, Branch Manager, First Home Mortgage , McLean , VA
I expect rates to continue their generally lower trajectory in the week ahead, as traders continue to debate the magnitude and timing of the Fed’s next rate decision.
Ken H. Johnson
Walker Family Chair of Real Estate, University of Mississippi.
Movement in the pricing of 5/1 ARM products is proving to be rather predictive of the direction of movement for long-term mortgage rates. For the last 10 days, 5/1 ARM pricing has been steadily declining, if only slightly. Accordingly, we should expect long-term mortgage rates to decline next week.
Mitch Ohlbaum
Mortgage banker, Macoy Capital Partners , Los Angeles , CA
The 10-year is trading at 3.82 percent this morning, and what a bumpy ride it has been all year. We started the year at 3.90 percent on Jan. 2, hit a high of 4.70 percent at the end of April and now it’s back to 3.82 percent. That is a lot of swing for the first eight months. All year, everyone has been watching jobs, inflation and general economics to try and figure out when the Fed might start to lower the rates. Most of us said it would be September, and that appears to be correct. The Fed may have moved sooner but employment was overstated and the downward adjustment was 1 million jobs — yes 1 million — which is a huge number. All of that said, you will see rates to ease for the balance of the year.
Bennie Waller
William Cary Hulsey Fellow, Culverhouse College of Business, University of Alabama , AL
Mortgage rates [will] inch down over [the] next several days in anticipation of [a] Fed rate cut.
67% say unchanged–
Michael Becker
Branch manager, Sierra Pacific Mortgage , White Marsh , Maryland
Mortgage rates have been fairly flat over the past week or so. With light holiday trading and no major economic report until next week's Non-Farm Payrolls, I expect this trend to continue. Mortgage rates flat in the coming week.
Melissa Cohn
Regional Vice President, William Raveis Mortgage
Rates will remain range bound as the markets wait for the next round of economic data. Bonds have baked in a rate cut in September. How big [of] a rate cut will be dependent on upcoming reports on inflation, employment and retail sales. Weak data will support a .50 rate cut but, more importantly for mortgage rates, help to bring bond yields down and mortgage rates with them.
Dick Lepre
Senior Loan Officer, Realfinity , Alamo , CA
Trend: Flat. Consumer confidence is strong but has not created fear of higher prices. Contained inflation translates to flat mortgage rates.
Greg McBride
CFA, chief financial analyst, Bankrate.com
Even with an inflation data point on the horizon, we might not see much movement in rates in a holiday-shortened week.
Joel Naroff
President and chief economist, Naroff Economic Advisors , Holland , Pennsylvania
Stable. Uncertainty over how much the Fed will cut in September creates the need to be a little cautious about how much more rates can fall in the short run.
Les Parker
CMB, managing director, Transformational Mortgage Solutions , Jacksonville , Florida
Mortgage rates will go nowhere. Here's a parody of "Tiny Bubbles," the 1966 Don Ho hit. "Tiny bubbles make bonds worn all over, with a feeling that trades will go nowhere till the end of time." Mortgages go up a little and down a little because it is stuck on the fulcrum between the 2-year and the 10-year Treasury Notes. Meanwhile, the Treasury curve experiences the short-end outperforming the long-end, leading to a positive slope.
Sean P. Salter, Ph.D.
Associate Professor of Finance and Dale Carnegie Trainer, Middle Tennessee State University , Murfreesboro , TN
Unchanged. The 10-year Treasury rate is up slightly over the past week, and I expect that to help curb the recent, overenthusiastic decline in mortgage rates.
Nancy Vanden Houton, CFA
CFA, Senior Research Analyst, Stone & McCarthy Research Associates , New York , NY
Unchanged.