Monthly Outlook

Warmer and often drier conditions will develop by early August, although this will be focused more on the southern half of the UK than the north.

Further north the conditions will be more variable and temperatures should be closer to the average for the season.

A similar weather pattern should often return during August, with Scotland and Northern Ireland look like being most susceptible to bouts of rain and increased winds, while the south and east have longer dry periods and more warmth, with temperatures staying above average overall.

A warm few days, and drier for most after midweek

After an unsettled Saturday, Sunday should turn drier and sunnier as high pressure builds, but Scotland and Northern Ireland could have a little rain at times into the start of the week.

A burst of warmth will come by the middle of the week with temperatures in parts of southern England hitting the upper 20s Celsius as the high shifts eastwards, causing south-east to easterly flows to develop.

The south-east could even see 30 degrees in places, especially if heavy showers and thunderstorms hold off, but these could move in from France across parts of England and Wales on Tuesday and Wednesday as a low pressure system skims the English Channel. Either way, it is likely to be humid as well.

Sharp thundery showers could also develop farther north by midweek. Warmth will abate in the second half of the week, with a weakening frontal system probably bringing a band of rain across, but that should become more fitful.

Late in the week, a rebuild of high pressure should deliver drier weather to many areas, but northern and north-western regions could see rain returning from the Atlantic, most likely affecting Scotland and Northern Ireland.

Fairly dry and warm in the south, seasonable north

Further into August, we should see a high pressure ridge continuing to build at times near or across the southern half of the UK. Low pressure systems should tend to track north of Scotland, from the vicinity of Iceland towards Scandinavia.

That ought to mean occasional bands of rain moving across from the north-west as Atlantic fronts trail through. These are most likely to affect Scotland and Northern Ireland, and even here there shouldn’t be much more rain than average. The farther south and east you are, the better the chances of longer dry periods.

Temperatures should rise a bit as well, so much of England and Wales is likely to see above-average warmth. With the more unsettled conditions farther north, Scotland and Northern Ireland could be closer to average overall.

There is, however, a risk is that frontal systems could penetrate farther across the UK, which would mean a cooler and wetter spell.

Similar conditions could continue

Through mid-August and into the second half of the month we are most likely to see a continuation of similar patterns. So, high pressure should remain nearby, while the main low pressure track and frontal boundary remains at quite high latitudes.

Therefore, there should be relatively dry and warm conditions for much of the UK, with no sign of any significant cooling at the moment. The northern UK could remain susceptible to occasional rain and more seasonable temperatures as Atlantic frontal systems drift past.

Equally, however, the axis of the expected high pressure could edge a bit farther north, pushing any fronts farther away at times and allowing for longer drier and warmer periods. Meanwhile, though, this could open the door to showers and thunderstorms moving across southern areas from the south.

In our next update we will see if the longer range models continue to show some agreement on the frequent presence of high pressure through August.