POLÍTICA MONETARIA
Última conferencia de prensa del BCE
La presidenta Christine Lagarde y el vicepresidente Luis de Guindos han explicado las últimas decisiones de política monetaria del Consejo de Gobierno y han respondido a las preguntas de los periodistas en una conferencia de prensa.
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ESTADÍSTICA
16 de julio de 2024
Resultados de la encuesta sobre préstamos bancarios - II TR 2024
Los criterios de aprobación de préstamos se mantuvieron en general en niveles restrictivos y se endurecieron notablemente en el sector inmobiliario comercial. La demanda de préstamos por parte de las empresas siguió descendiendo, aunque aumentó la de los hogares. Los riesgos climáticos y las políticas al respecto continuaron reflejándose en las condiciones de financiación.
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EL BLOG DEL BCE
23 de julio de 2024
Mercados de repos y reducción del balance
Los mercados de repos son fundamentales para los bancos que buscan liquidez y valores y constituyen un eslabón esencial en la cadena de transmisión de la política monetaria. ¿Cómo ha afectado la reducción del balance del Eurosistema a los mercados de repos? En el blog del BCE examinamos la dinámica de este mercado.
Lee el blog del BCE- 23 July 2024
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENTEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +Annexes
- 23 July 2024
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT - COMMENTARY
- 19 July 2024
- GOVERNING COUNCIL DECISIONS - OTHER DECISIONSEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +
- 19 July 2024
- PRESS RELEASEAnnexes
- 19 July 2024
- BALANCE OF PAYMENTS (MONTHLY)
- 19 July 2024
- PRESS RELEASERelated
- 19 July 2024
- SURVEY OF PROFESSIONAL FORECASTERS
- 23 July 2024
- Welcome address by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Joint ECB-IMF-IMFER Conference 2024
- 18 July 2024
- Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 18 July 2024EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +Related
- 18 July 2024
- 18 July 2024
- EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +
- 4 July 2024
- Keynote speech by Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, at the National Conference of Statistics on official statistics at the time of artificial intelligence
- 4 July 2024
- Slides by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Master in Economics and Finance (MEF) 2024 Lecture in Naples
- 1 July 2024
- Introductory speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the opening reception of the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, PortugalRelated
- 6 July 2024
- 23 July 2024
- Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Sergio Rivas
- 11 June 2024
- Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Andrés Stumpf, Stefan Reccius, Isabella Bufacchi, Guillaume Benoit and Alexandre Counis in Paris on 7 June 2024
- 27 May 2024
- Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Martin Arnold on 24 May 2024
- 24 May 2024
- Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Steffen Clement on 16 May 2024
- 23 May 2024
- Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Dietmar Mascher and Alexander Zens
- 23 July 2024
- Repo markets are vital for banks to source liquidity and securities. They also represent an essential link in the monetary policy transmission chain. While the Eurosystem is in the process of reducing its market footprint, repo markets are going through a phase of change. The ECB Blog looks at dynamics in this market.Details
- JEL Code
- E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
- 10 July 2024
- The green transition will significantly increase demand for key minerals over the coming decades. The impact on energy prices will ultimately depend on how supply adjusts. The ECB Blog looks at the geopolitical risks involved.Details
- JEL Code
- D43 : Microeconomics→Market Structure and Pricing→Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection
F51 : International Economics→International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy→International Conflicts, Negotiations, Sanctions
F55 : International Economics→International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy→International Institutional Arrangements
- 4 July 2024
- Firms’ inflation expectations are key for monetary policy makers. The ECB Blog presents new survey data on these expectations, evidence on what influences them, how they change when new information becomes available, and if they matter for the plans and choices firms make.Details
- JEL Code
- D22 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
D81 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
D84 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Expectations, Speculations
- 27 June 2024
- Europe needs trillions of euros to manage climate change, become digital and defend itself. How can EU and national policymakers support these projects? This Blog post discusses the options in times of low growth and high public debt levels.Details
- JEL Code
- E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
H50 : Public Economics→National Government Expenditures and Related Policies→General
H63 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→Debt, Debt Management, Sovereign Debt
- 25 June 2024
- A digital euro would combine the convenience of digital payments with cash-like features. ECB Executive Board member Piero Cipollone explains how a digital euro would enhance Europeans’ freedom of choice when deciding how to pay.EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (15) +
- 24 July 2024
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2957Details
- Abstract
- We document novel survey-based facts about preferred long-run inflation rates among US consumers. Consumers on average prefer a 0.20% annual inflation rate, well below the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Inflation preferences not only correlate with demographic and socioeconomic characteristics, but also with economic reasoning. A randomized control trial reveals that two narratives based on economic models—describing how inflation lowers the real value of wages and money holdings—affect inflation preferences. While our results can inform the design of central bank communication on inflation targets, they also raise questions about the alignment between such targets and consumer preferences.
- JEL Code
- C83 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology, Computer Programs→Survey Methods, Sampling Methods
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
- 24 July 2024
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2956Details
- Abstract
- We study the importance of information technology (IT) in banking for entrepreneurship. Guided by a parsimonious model, we establish that job creation by young rms is stronger in US counties more exposed to banks with greater IT adoption. We present evidence consistent with banks' IT adoption spurring entrepreneurship through a collateral channel: entrepreneurship increases by more in IT-exposed counties when house prices rise. Further analysis suggests that IT improves banks' ability to determine collateral values, in particular when collateral appraisal is more complex. IT also reduces the time and cost of disbursing collateralized loans.
- JEL Code
- D82 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Asymmetric and Private Information, Mechanism Design
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
L26 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior→Entrepreneurship
- 23 July 2024
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2955Details
- Abstract
- We analyze the optimal window length in the average inflation targeting rule within a Behavioral THANK model. The central bank faces an occasionally binding effective lower bound (ELB) or persistent supply shocks, and can also use quantitative easing. We show that the optimal averaging period is infinitely long given a conventional degree of myopia. Finite yet long-lasting windows dominate for higher cognitive discounting; i.e., the makeup property is shown to be qualitatively resistant to deviation from rational expectations. We point out that the optimal window may depend on the speed of return to the target path. We solve the model both locally and globally to disentangle the effects of uncertainty due to the ELB. The welfare loss difference between solution techniques is considerably decreasing in the degree of history dependence.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
E71 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics
- 23 July 2024
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2954Details
- Abstract
- We study the sensitivity of the realised LGD to macroeconomic conditions by exploring Global Credit’s confidential dataset on observed cash flows from defaulted loans. Given the prolonged duration of loan recovery, spanning several years, and the potential for macroeconomic fluctuations during this time frame, our study explores whether the sensitivity of realised LGD to macroeconomic conditions varies based on the timing of cash flows. We find that, regardless of the cash flow timing, the sensitivity of the LGD to macroeconomic conditions is higher for real-estate secured loans than for unsecured loans. The most relevant macroeconomic variables for the secured LGD are unemployment rate and stock returns, followed by house prices and the long-term interest rate. For unsecured loans, real GDP growth and stock returns are the most relevant predictors. These results may be relevant for both micro and macroprudential policymakers by informing on the procyclicality of risk parameters and bank capital requirements.
- JEL Code
- G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G32 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Financing Policy, Financial Risk and Risk Management, Capital and Ownership Structure, Value of Firms, Goodwill
G33 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Bankruptcy, Liquidation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
- 23 July 2024
- RESEARCH BULLETIN - No. 121Details
- Abstract
- Households differ considerably in terms of the inflation they experience at any point in time. The main reasons for this are that prices (and thus price changes) differ from place to place and that households do not all buy the same products. Households adjust their purchases over time, but not enough to offset these differences.
- JEL Code
- D12 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
D30 : Microeconomics→Distribution→General
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
F45 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
- 22 July 2024
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2953Details
- Abstract
- Since the advent of Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian (HANK) models, countercyclical unemployment risk has been deemed an important amplification mechanism for business cycles shocks. Yet, the aggregate effects of such “unemployment fears” are hard to pin down. We thus revisit this issue in the context of a rich two-asset HANK model, proposing new ways to isolate their general equilibrium effects and tackle the long-standing challenge of modelling wage bargaining in this class of model. While unemployment fears can exert noticeable aggregate effects, we find their magnitude to depend importantly on the distribution of firm profits. Households’ ability to borrow stabilizes the economy. Our framework has also implications for policy: in the aftermath of an adverse energy price shock, fiscal policy can help reducing the hysteresis effects on unemployment and most households gain if the central bank accommodates an employment recovery at the cost of higher inflation.
- JEL Code
- D52 : Microeconomics→General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium→Incomplete Markets
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
J64 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers→Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
- 22 July 2024
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2952Details
- Abstract
- This paper provides a first empirical analysis of the impact of the European Central Bank’s (ECB’s) climate-risk-related supervisory efforts on (i) climate risk exposure and related risk management of banks; and (ii) on the induced shifts in banks’ portfolio choices with regard to additional green finance. From 2020 onwards, the ECB has introduced various measures to enhance climate-risk-related supervisory efforts. Our identification strategy exploits the fact that the ECB’s efforts on climate supervision has only been introduced for selected banks within the European Union i.e., the Significant Institutions under the Single Supervisory Mechanism. Other banks (i.e., the Less Significant Institutions) have remained unaffected. We set up a difference-in-difference setup based on a novel data set and find a significant impact on both improvements in climate risk exposure and management and on an increase in banks’ green finance activities.
- JEL Code
- D25 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 22 July 2024
- SURVEY OF MONETARY ANALYSTS - AGGREGATE RESULTS
- 19 July 2024
- SURVEY OF PROFESSIONAL FORECASTERSAnnexes
- 19 July 2024
- ANNEX
Related- 19 July 2024
- PRESS RELEASE
- 19 July 2024
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 5, 2024Details
- Abstract
- This box summarises the findings of recent contacts between ECB staff and representatives of 62 leading non-financial companies operating in the euro area. According to these exchanges, which took place between 17 and 26 June 2024, aggregate activity continued to pick up in the second quarter, amid increasing signs of a modest, consumption-led recovery. The outlook for investment remained subdued, however, with uncertainty still high. Price growth was moderate and continued to be stronger in services than in industry. Wage growth was expected to slow further next year, while still compensating to some extent for past inflation.
- JEL Code
- E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
L2 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior
- 16 July 2024
- EURO AREA BANK LENDING SURVEYAnnexes
- 16 July 2024
- EURO AREA BANK LENDING SURVEY - ANNEX
Related- 16 July 2024
- PRESS RELEASE
- 15 July 2024
- SURVEY ON THE ACCESS TO FINANCE OF ENTERPRISES IN THE EURO AREAAnnexes
- 15 July 2024
- SAFE QUESTIONNAIRE
Related - 12 July 2024
- LEGAL ACT
- 10 July 2024
- OTHER PUBLICATIONAnnexes
- 10 July 2024
- OTHER PUBLICATION
Related - 10 July 2024
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2951Details
- Abstract
- Using granular data from the European corporate credit register, we examine how increases in macroprudential capital buffer requirements since the pandemic have affected bank lending behaviour in the euro area. Our findings reveal that, for the average bank, the buffer requirement increases did not have a statistically significant impact on lending to non-financial corporations. Furthermore, while we document relatively slower loan growth for banks with less capital headroom, also these banks did not decrease lending in absolute terms in response to higher requirements. These findings are robustin various specifications and emerge for both loan growth at the bank-firm level and the propensity to establish new bank-firm relationships. At the firm level, we document some heterogeneity depending on firm type and firm size. Firms with a single bank relationship and small and micro enterprises experienced a relative reduction in lending following buffer increases, although substitution effects mitigated real effects at the firm level. Overall, the results suggest that the pronounced macroprudential tightening since late 2021 did not exert substantial negative effects on credit supply.Hence, activating releasable capital buffers at an early stage of the cycle appears to be a robust policy strategy, since the costs of doing so are expected to be low.
- JEL Code
- E5 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
G18 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Government Policy and Regulation
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
- 9 July 2024
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2950Details
- Abstract
- We match granular supervisory and credit register data to assess the implications of banks’ exposure to interest rate risk on the monetary policy transmission to bank lending supply in the euro area. We exploit the largest and swiftest increase in interest rates since the creation of the euro and find that banks with a higher exposure to interest rate risk, i.e., with a larger duration gap after accounting for hedging, curtailed corporate lending more than their peers. Ceteris paribus, greater interest rate risk entails closer supervisory scrutiny and potential capital surcharges in the short term, and lower expected profitability and capital accumulation in the medium to long term. We then proceed to dissect banks’ credit allocation and find that banks with higher net duration reshuffled their loan portfolio away from long-term loans in an attempt to limit the increase in interest rate risk and targetedtheir lending contraction to small and micro firms. Firms exposed to banks with a larger exposure to interest rate risk were unable to fully rebalance their borrowing needs with other lenders, thus experiencing a relatively larger decrease in total borrowing during the monetary tightening episode.
- JEL Code
- E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
- 8 July 2024
- OTHER PUBLICATION
- 1 July 2024
- SURVEY OF MONETARY ANALYSTS
- 28 June 2024
- GOVERNING COUNCIL STATEMENT
- 27 June 2024
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 352Details
- Abstract
- The 2019 revision to the Capital Requirements Directive allowed the systemic risk buffer to be applied on a sectoral basis in the European Union. Since then an increasing number of countries have implemented the new tool, primarily to address vulnerabilities in the residential real estate sector. To inform and foster a consistent understanding and application of the buffer, this paper proposes two specific methodologies. First, an indicator-based approach which provides an aggregate measure of cyclical vulnerabilities in the residential real estate sector and can signal a potential need to activate a sectoral buffer to address them. Second, a model-based approach following a stress test rationale simulating mortgage loan losses under adverse conditions, which can be used as a starting point for calibrating a sectoral buffer. Besides these methodological contributions, the paper conceptually discusses the interaction between the sectoral buffer and other prudential requirements and instruments, ex ante and ex post policy impact assessment, and factors guiding the possible release of the buffer. Finally, the paper considers possible future applications of sectoral buffer requirements for other types of sectoral vulnerabilities, for example in relation to commercial real estate, exposures to non-financial corporations or climate-related risks.
- JEL Code
- G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
Tipos de interés
| Facilidad marginal de crédito | 4,50 % |
| Operaciones principales de financiación (tipo fijo) | 4,25 % |
| Facilidad de depósito | 3,75 % |
Tasa de inflación
Cuadro interactivo sobre la inflaciónTipos de cambio
| USD | US dollar | 1.0848 | |
| JPY | Japanese yen | 167.23 | |
| GBP | Pound sterling | 0.83973 | |
| CHF | Swiss franc | 0.9609 |
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