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DISCOURS

De la dépendance à l’autonomie

Un euro numérique serait une version numérique des espèces, accessible à tous et acceptée dans l’ensemble de la zone euro, déclare Piero Cipollone, membre du directoire de la BCE. Il renforcerait la souveraineté financière et la résilience de l’Europe, en la dotant d’un système robuste de paiement numérique qui lui serait propre.

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BULLETIN ÉCONOMIQUE 26.9.2024

La BCE publie son Bulletin économique

Cette publication présente les informations économiques et monétaires sur lesquelles le Conseil des gouverneurs fonde ses décisions de politique monétaire. Elle paraît huit fois par an, deux semaines après chaque réunion de politique monétaire.

Lire le dernier Bulletin économique
DISCOURS 20.9.2024

Mutations structurelles et politique monétaire

Les mutations structurelles à l’œuvre dans l’économie sont importantes pour la politique monétaire, déclare Christine Lagarde, présidente de la BCE. Pour apporter une réponse appropriée aux mutations structurelles, notre approche doit continuer d’intégrer la stabilité sans la rigidité, ce qui nous permettra de nous adapter rapidement à mesure que l’économie se transforme.

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LE BLOG DE LA BCE 25.9.2024

Les précédents cycles de politique monétaire

Les banques centrales soutiennent les économies face aux chocs et doivent ramener l’inflation au niveau de leur objectif. Le blog de la BCE aborde les leçons pouvant être tirées des précédents cycles de politique monétaire en vue de maîtriser l’inflation tout en assurant un atterrissage en douceur de l’économie.

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26 September 2024
MONETARY DEVELOPMENTS IN THE EURO AREA
Annexes
24 September 2024
WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT
Annexes
24 September 2024
WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT - COMMENTARY
19 September 2024
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS (MONTHLY)
17 September 2024
WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT
Annexes
17 September 2024
WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT - COMMENTARY
12 September 2024
MONETARY POLICY DECISION
23 September 2024
Introductory statement by Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament
20 September 2024
Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the 2024 Michel Camdessus Central Banking Lecture organised by the IMF
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (4) +
19 September 2024
Slides by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, in an exchange of views on "Current aspects of monetary policy" with the Association of German Banks (Committee for Economic and Monetary Policy) in Frankfurt, Germany
16 September 2024
Keynote speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the European Investment Bank Chief Economists’ Meeting
Annexes
16 September 2024
12 September 2024
Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 12 September 2024
20 September 2024
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Gonçalo Almeida on 13 September
English
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4 September 2024
Interview with Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Eric Albert
English
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26 July 2024
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Christian Siedenbiedel on 22 July 2024
English
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23 July 2024
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Sergio Rivas
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (1) +
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11 June 2024
Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Andrés Stumpf, Stefan Reccius, Isabella Bufacchi, Guillaume Benoit and Alexandre Counis in Paris on 7 June 2024
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (4) +
25 September 2024
The job of central banks is to help the economy navigate shocks and steer inflation back to target. This ECB Blog post asks what we can learn from past monetary policy cycles about how to control inflation while achieving a soft landing of the economy.
24 September 2024
Hedge funds have substantially increased their trading activity in euro area government bond and repo markets. The ECB Blog evaluates how this plays out for market functioning and intermediation.
Details
JEL Code
H63 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→Debt, Debt Management, Sovereign Debt
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G24 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Investment Banking, Venture Capital, Brokerage, Ratings and Ratings Agencies
17 September 2024
Energy-intensive firms continue to suffer from low profits margins even as energy prices have fallen from their peak. The ECB Blog discusses implications for the green transition in the EU.
3 September 2024
Euro area exporters are facing tougher competition from China. But why is that? The ECB Blog looks at the important role played by price competitiveness and the ongoing industrial upgrades being made in China.
Details
JEL Code
F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
H25 : Public Economics→Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue→Business Taxes and Subsidies
15 August 2024
How quickly do consumers react to rate hikes? The answer depends in part on how much they know about financial matters. This ECB Blog post shows that the better informed they are, the quicker their reaction.
Details
JEL Code
D10 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→General
D14 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Household Saving; Personal Finance
E20 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→General
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
D83 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Search, Learning, Information and Knowledge, Communication, Belief
26 September 2024
ECONOMIC BULLETIN
26 September 2024
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2024
Details
Abstract
The increase in policy rates has translated into higher interest rates on deposits in both the euro area and the United States, albeit more so in the euro area despite a smaller increase in the policy rate and a lower starting point. As in previous hiking cycles, the increase in remuneration has been considerably smaller for overnight deposits than for other assets, triggering a rebalancing of money holders’ portfolios in both economies. As policy rates increased, credit to firms and households fell more sharply in the euro area than in the United States. The pass-through to lending rates was rather similar. Yet, the greater prevalence of fixed rate mortgages in the United States entailed a slower transmission to rates on existing mortgages. The developments in deposits and loans were mirrored in broad money growth, with high US deposit volumes reflecting the much larger pandemic-related asset purchases by the Fed, and with the moderation in lending volumes having been the main driver of the weakening in monetary dynamics in the euro area, whereas in the US, other sources were the initial drivers, with bank lending only contributing later.
JEL Code
E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E41 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Demand for Money
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
26 September 2024
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2024
Details
Abstract
This box describes liquidity conditions and the Eurosystem monetary policy operations during the third and fourth reserve maintenance periods of 2024, from 17 April to 23 July 2024.
JEL Code
E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
26 September 2024
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2024
Details
Abstract
Consumer confidence in the euro area plummeted when Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine and has remained at a low level since then, despite some recovery. This box analyses the underlying factors that explain this subdued consumer confidence and assesses the implications of persistently low confidence for private consumption going forward. It finds that rising inflation was the initial cause of the decline in consumer confidence compared with the pre-invasion period, followed later by the increasingly negative effects of higher borrowing costs coupled with declining house prices. Moreover, the fact that consumer confidence is still subdued suggests that private consumption will only improve moderately in the short term.
JEL Code
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E27 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E29 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Other
25 September 2024
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2024
Details
Abstract
Wage indicators give policymakers a key perspective on the outlook for inflation through the effect of wages on the price-setting of firms and on the consumption behaviour of households. This box studies recent developments in wage indicators, with a particular focus on wage drift, which has recently been in decline. The moderation of wage drift is key to explaining the easing of growth in compensation per employee. This is due to negotiated wage growth taking over the role of achieving inflation compensation from wage drift. The recovery of average hours worked after the pandemic had also been pushing the wage drift up, but this impact has weakened recently.
JEL Code
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
J30 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs→General
J52 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Labor?Management Relations, Trade Unions, and Collective Bargaining→Dispute Resolution: Strikes, Arbitration, and Mediation, Collective Bargaining
25 September 2024
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2024
Details
Abstract
This box summarises the findings from an ECB survey in which leading firms were asked about key labour market trends. The responses suggest that recruiting new employees has become more difficult in recent years, owing particularly to labour shortages, and that this is the main motivation for firms to hoard labour during downturns. Reduced working hours are said to reflect the preferences of employees more than of firms. The increase in remote working has helped to expand the potential pool of job candidates and reduced the cost of office space but is also perceived by some firms to have reduced productivity. The survey also asked about the adoption of generative artificial intelligence (generative AI). Responses point to a significant take-up of generative AI over the past 18 months, motivated in particular by the wish to increase employee access to information.
JEL Code
E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
L2 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior
24 September 2024
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2024
Details
Abstract
The role of nature in economic activity is insufficiently incorporated in economic statistics. While economic growth in Europe in recent decades has been lower than in some other regions, it has been achieved alongside a reduction in pollution, and once these benefits have been accounted for, this growth appears more favourable. In 2019 the estimated value of ecosystem services in the EU amounted to over €234 billion. However, understanding how nature loss may affect future output requires more than just calculating the monetary value of ecosystem services, it is crucial to develop and monitor statistical measures that explicitly capture the evolution of nature.
JEL Code
D24 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Production, Cost, Capital, Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity, Capacity
E01 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General→Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth, Environmental Accounts
Q57 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Ecological Economics: Ecosystem Services, Biodiversity Conservation, Bioeconomics, Industrial Ecology
24 September 2024
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2024
Details
Abstract
Nature is crucial to human wellbeing and provides essential ecosystem services that support economic activity. However, the economic value of these services is often undervalued because they are not traded in markets or given a direct monetary value. Nature degradation, including biodiversity loss, threatens the continued provision of these critical services, potentially leading to significant macroeconomic consequences that affect price and financial stability. Recent analysis by the European Central Bank (ECB) revealed that nearly three-quarters of the euro area economy and financial system are critically dependent on healthy ecosystems. Therefore, a systematic, proactive and comprehensive approach to quantifying and assessing the impact of escalating nature-related economic and financial risks on price and financial stability is essential. This article discusses the implications from a central banking perspective, emphasising the importance of an integrated approach to climate change and nature-related risks. It further explores the impact of these risks on our economy and seeks a deeper understanding of the physical impacts of climate change.
JEL Code
C80 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology, Computer Programs→General
C60 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Mathematical Methods, Programming Models, Mathematical and Simulation Modeling→General
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
Q20 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Renewable Resources and Conservation→General
Q50 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→General
24 September 2024
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2983
Details
Abstract
This paper introduces a Bayesian Quantile Factor Augmented VAR (BQFAVAR) to examine the asymmetric effects of monetary policy throughout the business cycle. Monte Carlo experiments demonstrate that the model effectively captures non-linearities in impulse responses. Analysis of aggregate responses to a contractionary monetary policy shock reveals that financial variables and industrial production exhibit more pronounced impacts during recessions compared to expansions, aligning with predictions from the ’financial accelerator’ propagation mechanism literature. Additionally, inflation displays a higher level of symmetry across economic conditions, consistent with households’ loss aversion in the context of reference-dependent preferences and central banks’ commitment to maintaining price stability. The examination of price rigidities at a granular level, employing sectoral prices and quantities, demonstrates that during recessions, the contractionary policy shock results in a more pronounced negative impact on quantities compared to expansions. This finding provides support for the notion of stronger downward than upward price rigidity, as suggested by ’menu-costs models’.
JEL Code
C11 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Bayesian Analysis: General
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
23 September 2024
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2024
Details
Abstract
Labour productivity growth in the euro area remains significantly below its pre-pandemic levels, whereas in the United States it is largely in line with the pre-pandemic trend. The slower growth in euro area labour productivity has been broadly based across sectors. This discrepancy in productivity growth between the two regions partly stems from the higher procyclicality of labour productivity in the euro area. However, structural factors are also likely to play a significant role in explaining productivity differences between the two regions and are rooted in weak contributions from capital accumulation and innovation in the euro area. These factors have arguably been present since well before the pandemic.
JEL Code
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E60 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→General
23 September 2024
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2024
Details
Abstract
Over the past few decades, the euro area has gradually lost market share in global trade. This article describes the long-term trends underlying the decline in the euro area’s market share, relating it to losses in competitiveness in foreign markets. It explains how a series of recent global shocks – such as pandemic-related supply disruptions, geopolitical tensions and the energy shock following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – as well as other factors affecting price and non-price competitiveness had an asymmetric impact on the euro area compared with its main trading partners and exposed important vulnerabilities in its external competitiveness. These vulnerabilities are particularly significant in view of the challenges ahead, which are linked to the persistence of the energy shock, risks associated with geo-economic fragmentation and the ongoing structural transformation of the European and global economies.
JEL Code
F14 : International Economics→Trade→Empirical Studies of Trade
18 September 2024
RESEARCH BULLETIN - No. 122
Details
Abstract
What factors could drive transactional demand for central bank digital currency (CBDC)? We analyse payment survey data to arrive at a framework for understanding the role of adoption frictions and design strategies in shaping CBDC demand. The results of our analysis show that, while consumers may initially prefer to use more traditional payment methods, a design tailored to their specific needs could significantly increase CBDC uptake. Raising awareness and capitalising on network effects could also boost demand for CBDC.
JEL Code
E41 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Demand for Money
G32 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Financing Policy, Financial Risk and Risk Management, Capital and Ownership Structure, Value of Firms, Goodwill
16 September 2024
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2982
Details
Abstract
This paper presents an event-study methodology that combines market data and survey-based probabilities to infer the full effect of a policy decision, as seen through the lens of financial markets. The market reaction to an event’s outcome reflects its surprise or announcement effect, and generally not its full effect. However, under certain conditions, the unobserved full effect can be derived from the observed surprise effect. Most importantly, the ex-ante probabilities of different outcomes must be known. We apply this methodology to a real-world example: the European Central Bank’s announcement of its third series of targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTROIII). The introduction of TLTROIII was highly anticipated, and therefore partially priced in, as market participants feared a “cliff effect” with the preceding operations under TLTROII coming due. We estimate the announcement’s full effect, focusing on its impact on a set of asset prices, as compared to a baseline wherein TLTROIII would not have been introduced. The full market impact surpasses the surprise effect by a factor of fifteen. We also find that the announcement had a highly heterogeneous impact on euro area sovereign bond yields.
JEL Code
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G13 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Contingent Pricing, Futures Pricing
G14 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Information and Market Efficiency, Event Studies, Insider Trading
16 September 2024
SURVEY OF MONETARY ANALYSTS - AGGREGATE RESULTS
16 September 2024
OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 356
Details
Abstract
This study assesses euro area banks’ profitability using granular stress test data from three EU-wide exercises, coordinated by the European Banking Authority, that took place in 2016, 2018, and 2021. We propose a credit portfolio-level risk-adjusted return on assets for the euro area as a whole and for individual countries to assess the profitability of lending activities among euro area banks. Using banks’ own projections under the adverse scenarios of the stress test exercises for a consistent sample of euro area banks, we aim to uncover the effect of severe macroeconomic and financial conditions on the profitability of the various portfolios. We investigate how many country portfolios switch from profitable to loss-making under adverse conditions and show that this number peaks in the 2018 stress test exercise, while the 2021 exercise yields the lowest overall profitability. Overall, around 30% of exposures become unprofitable under stress conditions across the latest two exercises (compared to 20% for the 2016 exercise), mostly concentrated in the non-financial corporations (NFC) segment and, to a lesser extent, in the financial and mortgage portfolios. We also show in a regression analysis that the yield curve is an important determinant of portfolio-level profitability in a stress test setting, while the unemployment rate seems to be relevant in determining portfolio switches and GDP growth seems to influence the change in profitability. The results also point to some portfolio heterogeneity.
13 September 2024
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2981
Details
Abstract
Financial losses can have persistent effects on the financial system. This paper proposes an empirical measure for the duration of these effects, Spillover Persistence. I document that Spillover Persistence is strongly correlated with financial conditions; during banking crises, Spillover Persistence is higher, whereas in the run-up phase of stock market bubbles it is lower. Lower Spillover Persistence also associates with a more fragile system, e.g., a higher probability of future crises, consistent with the volatility paradox. The results emphasize the dynamics of loss spillovers as an important dimension of systemic risk and financial constraints as a key determinant of persistence.
JEL Code
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G20 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→General
G32 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Financing Policy, Financial Risk and Risk Management, Capital and Ownership Structure, Value of Firms, Goodwill
13 September 2024
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2980
Details
Abstract
By applying a structural demand model to unique consumer-level survey data from the euro area, we assess how different CBDC design options, combined with individual (revealed) preferences, influence the potential demand for a digital euro. Estimating the demand for a digital euro, we find that if it were unconstrained, it could range, in steady state, between 3-28% of household liquid assets or €0.12 - €1.11 trillion, depending on whether consumers would perceive the digital euro to be more cash-like or deposit-like. With an illustrative €3,000 holding limit per person, it could instead range between 2-9% or €0.10 -€0.38 trillion. Privacy, automatic funding, and instant settlement raise its potential demand.
JEL Code
E41 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Demand for Money
E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
12 September 2024
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
Annexes
5 September 2024
LETTERS TO MEPS
Related
5 September 2024
DIGITAL EURO PREPARATION PHASE - SCHEME RULEBOOK DEVELOPMENT GROUP DOCUMENTS
3 September 2024
LEGAL ACT

Taux d’intérêt

Facilité de prêt marginal 3,90 %
Opérations principales de refinancement (à taux fixe) 3,65 %
Facilité de dépôt 3,50 %
18.09.2024 Précédents taux directeurs de la BCE

Taux d’inflation

En savoir plus sur l’inflation

Taux de change

USD US dollar 1.1194
JPY Japanese yen 161.49
GBP Pound sterling 0.83653
CHF Swiss franc 0.9495
Dernière mise à jour : 25.09.2024 Taux de change de l’euro