By Ray Schroeder and Katherine Kerpan
While the first full year of operation of ChatGPT, 2023, gave a foretaste of the enormous impact that AI is going to have on us all, 2024 shows every sign of boggling the mind even more. Here are some things to look out for.
GenAI has taken a leading role in supporting and enhancing activities, drawing on cognitive functions in many facets of our society. Unlike the robotic revolution that impacted mostly blue-collar workers in the manufacturing and assembly industries of the end of the 20th century, GenAI has most directly impacted white-collar and creative workers over the past year.
OpenAI’s ChatGPT was the first major GenAI out of the gate in late 2022. It started an avalanche of entries in the field from start-ups to the leading large tech corporations of Microsoft, Google, Meta, IBM, and more. Now, with more than 100 million weekly users, as well as more than 92 per cent of the Fortune 500 companies,9 OpenAI remains in the lead of this massive movement to integrate artificial intelligence in nearly all aspects of business, industry, and commerce.
In one of the earliest academic studies of the implementation of GenAI, Harvard University, the University of Pennsylvania Wharton School, and MIT collaborated to analyse the impact of making the ChatGPT tool available to 758 consultants at the prestigious Boston Consulting Group. Given 18 realistic consulting tasks, the GenAI-equipped consultants, who used GPT-4, completed on average 12.2 per cent more tasks, 25.1 per cent more rapidly. Additionally, 40 per cent of the trial group were judged to have produced higher-quality results.19
Based on more than 4,700 interviews of business executives at the World Economic Forum held in Davos, Switzerland earlier this year, 46 per cent of the leaders believed that GenAI would boost profits in 2024. Also, 25 per cent of the chief executives expected GenAI to lead to headcount reductions of at least 5 per cent this year.7
Clearly, GenAI has the potential to be a game-changer in the coming year. In this article, we will examine a number of the key changes, challenges, and opportunities that can be expected by the end of the year.
Where is the technology today and where is it leading?
Any update on this technology has to carry the caveat that it is changing day by day and that research and development is, in most cases, months ahead of what is available to the general public. We are now in a period of highly competitive one-upmanship in the features, speed, security, and reliability of GenAI products. As the top dozen or so competitors seek to build consumer and corporate markets, we will see usage expand. Currently, business and industry has effectively applied the technology to marketing, accounting, industry research, product development, trend analysis, report writing, and predictive applications.
This rapidly changing environment will continue to make retraining and updating of staff and applications a necessary practice until a level of stability is reached. However, the changes are resulting in consistently improved performance that will make the updating cost-effective through more efficient and expanded performance in many cases.
OpenAI is expected to soon release a version 5 of their GPT large language model (LLM) that will include a host of new capabilities. Didier Hope writes in Medium, “The transition from GPT-4 to GPT-5 is anticipated to showcase significant advancements in generative potential, language understanding, and contextual reasoning, further consolidating GPT-5’s position as a leading AI model in the industry. With a focus on artificial general intelligence (AGI), GPT-5 is expected to exhibit enhanced cognitive abilities, enabling it to comprehend and respond to a broader range of complex queries and tasks in a more human-like manner.”15 GPT-5 will likely be seen as an incremental step toward AGI. We are not likely to see a robust version of AGI without a quantum computing platform, a technology that, itself, continues to develop and will likely host fully robust AGI. However significant developments can be expected in the coming months.
Capabilities to expect in 2024
This year, after a dizzying 2023, global business leaders will be able to lay the required groundwork for long-term AI adoption more thoughtfully and intentionally. Organisations will take a step back to evaluate and reskill their workforces, assess data infrastructure needs, and update cybersecurity practices in ways that consider AI needs and risks. As dependency on AI grows, chief information officers will play a pivotal role.13 Their expertise will be critical to proper procurement and implementation decisions impacting legacy systems.
The generative AI landscape is shifting from large language models towards smaller, open-source, often multimodal models that combine text, images, video, and more.20 This is important because these new models will be better able to specialise and solve niche use cases. This will lower barriers to experimentation and promote pilot testing, as these more precise and less costly models allow businesses to innovate faster. Market leaders across sectors will harness this trend to accelerate advancements in personalisation, supply chain optimisation, customer service, and many other business operations.2
Finally, in 2024, enterprise software providers will begin to integrate generative AI capabilities and features directly into at least some of their product offerings, making the technology’s transformative powers readily available to the masses within tools that they are already familiar with and use daily. Companies that leverage prepared workforces, modernised data, secure systems, and up-to-date software tools will gain sustained competitive advantages.17
Strategies to follow in 2024
McKinsey and Company estimates that GenAI could contribute between $2.6 trillion and $4.4 trillion annually to the global economy by 2030. Despite the excitement, they emphasise the importance of companies focusing on cautiously scaling their AI applications and undergoing fundamental organisational changes to fully and wisely leverage the benefits of AI transformations.16
Cprime’s “Generative AI in 2024: A Strategic Guide for Global Enterprises” explains that the economic impact of generative AI on enterprises will be profound, redefining operational efficiencies and cost structures across various industries such as healthcare, marketing, and legal. It will unlock new business value and spark significant advances across organisational functions by processing and extracting value from unstructured data, which has been difficult or impossible up to now.4
Apotheker and colleagues3 discuss the impacts of GenAI on businesses based on a survey of 1,400+ C-suite executives. While GenAI is rapidly changing business operations, 90 per cent of leaders are still waiting for the hype to subside or are pursuing only limited experimentation. The survey reveals that 66 per cent of leaders are ambivalent or dissatisfied with their progress on AI and GenAI, and only 6 per cent have begun upskilling meaningfully. Unfortunately, because of the exponential speed with which these technologies are unfolding, laggards will fall behind quickly as brave adopters jump on board.
How to handle your workforce – upskill or lay off / terminate?
Of course, there are many factors impacting the decision of whether to retain workers in the wake of significant new efficiencies and competencies afforded by GenAI. In order to best confront this decision, it may be best to engage GenAI itself, to assist with the priority considerations in decision-making. On 8 February, I asked the newly named Google Gemini to provide a list of considerations. Gemini prefaced its remarks with, “This is a complex issue with ethical and financial ramifications, so consider these factors closely.” It then proceeded to enumerate factors including:
1. Financial Considerations
-
- Cost of severance packages
- Cost of retraining programmes
- Long-term ROI for both scenarios
2. Skills and Adaptability
-
- Assessment of impacted employees
- Alignment of new opportunities
- Company culture and values
3. Prioritisation of employee well-being
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- Long-term reputation
- Employee morale
4. Ethical Considerations
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- Responsibility to employees
- Potential bias in AI systems
- Societal impact: What does the decision mean for the overall community?
- Consider how lay-offs may impact families and the local economy
Gemini provided additional details in each of these areas and went on to urge consultation with HR, legal experts, employee representatives, communication transparency,
and more. Gemini is linked to the Web and updates its responses accordingly.10
Some may be surprised at the depth and relevancy of responses. Gemini also provides three different responses to the prompt. Follow-up prompts may provide even more relevant and useful information.
As suggested by the GenAI app, there is no single answer for this challenging aspect of successfully achieving efficiencies and competencies through inexpensive or no-cost AI. Google Gemini does not have a monopoly on perspectives; in confronting such situations, you may want to access multiple apps for a further diversity of options.
What to expect from new graduates as regards AI
Beginning in 2024, we should anticipate a new generation of graduates equipped with AI skills, reshaping the workforce.6,12 Immersed in nascent AI applications, these graduates exhibit baseline fluency through daily use. Most considered AI’s trajectory in selecting their majors, with over 75 per cent factoring labour market implications into their decision-making.6 However, doubts persist regarding workforce automation. Many desire integrated curricula that blend technical and humanities disciplines to prepare them for AI collaboration and a hybrid new world.21
Reassuringly, this cohort remains hopeful about AI’s possibilities. Unlike previous technological shifts, these digital natives see AI as a tool to boost critical thinking, creativity, and productivity, not a replacement for human roles.23 As Handshake12 notes, Gen Z seeks to drive AI initiatives within organisations, suggesting robust understanding, a willingness to innovate, and a commitment to integrate AI solutions into business processes.
Expect cohorts attuned to AI’s risks and rewards, comfortable with constant reskilling, and motivated to direct these technologies toward equitable ends that improve society.6 Rather than displacing roles, their biggest anxiety is not being empowered to steer this wave of change.12 Wise leaders will embrace their input on AI implementation, offering tailored upskilling initiatives and collaboration opportunities.
How the ecosystems of higher ed and business have changed
Business and industry thrive on maintaining an agile, responsive culture that is highly sensitive to the changing needs and wants of their market; higher education is notoriously known as the “ivory tower” that is insular and slow to change. Each of the two has a different ecosystem.
Business is dominated by serving the client or customer while generating a profit; higher education is ruled by serving students and, up until now, to a far lesser extent on serving employers of graduates.
The worldwide environment has changed across the two fields. With fewer students entering college, enrolments in Europe have declined by nearly 5 per cent over the past decade,14 and enrolments in the US have declined by 10 per cent over the same period.24 Amid rising expenses for college attendance, students have looked to alternative credentials and directly entering careers in lieu of the traditional baccalaureate degree. In order to maintain tuition and fee revenue to cover operating expenses, the colleges and universities on both sides of the Atlantic must cultivate greater enrolments.
Meanwhile, the advent of GenAI and associated technologies has shifted the needs of employers. The new technologies can accomplish tasks historically handled by middle managers, accountants, human resources specialists, supervisors, marketers, computer programmers, legal department workers, and many more office positions. Yet, GenAI has opened whole new areas of workers in prompt engineering, AI trainers, sentiment analysers, AI integration specialists, AI ethicists, AI art directors, AI security specialists, and many more.8
It is in the nexus of education and employment that these two ecosystems merge. The interests of both universities and corporations are best served by successful careers for the students as they become new employees. The Boston Consulting Group has advocated for partnerships between higher education and business: “Partnerships between higher education institutions and employers can be invaluable for helping businesses respond to growing talent needs. They can offer employers a reliable way to cultivate an educated and trained workforce.”18 Serving their mutual interests, such partnerships will advance both ecosystems in the years ahead.
Strategies to stay on top of the changes
Forget the zero-sum-game mentality. Hamood11 advocates “extreme information-sharing”, particularly around failures and challenges. Nothing is a “mistake”, as long as learning is acquired. Fostering a culture of openness encourages cross-company collaboration, accelerates learning, and minimises redundant efforts. Share your AI journeys, successes, and setbacks with industry peers and participate in open-source communities. The collective knowledge exchange fuels innovation and propels the AI ecosystem forward.
The pace of AI development is relentless. As LinkedIn contributors1 advise, staying informed can be daunting. Cultivate a culture of continuous learning within your organisation. Voracious learning in diverse formats – from online courses and conferences to hands-on experimentation – expands competency and comfort with evolving tools.1 Invest in employee training programmes that equip your workforce with AI knowledge and skills. Encourage experimentation and support internal or external “hackathons” or innovation labs to explore emerging AI applications.
Finally, the AI Readiness Quotient, a diagnostic tool from Wharton, is an invaluable resource for businesses. It helps organisations assess their readiness for AI integration, identifying areas of strength and opportunities for improvement. By understanding their current position in the AI landscape, companies can develop targeted strategies to enhance their AI capabilities, ensuring that they can effectively leverage AI technologies.22
The world of business – more than ever before – belongs to the informed, agile, and fearless
As we progress through this second full year of GenAI, the ways in which we work, do business, and prepare for the future have changed. Our new tools have redefined many of the middle management positions in accounting, personnel, legal, customer relations, research, marketing, sales, and more. Those businesses that have embraced the new technologies are already reaping the benefits in more efficient operations, more creative approaches to tasks, more informed staff members, and new abilities to gather, analyse, predict, project, and apply data. The upside in operations is enormous at very low cost.
It is unprecedented that such advantageous tools enabling such valuable information, insights, and knowledge are available with a trivial investment. Over time, customised applications will become available to corporations at an increasing cost. However, now is the time to take advantage of building a base of utilising GenAI upon which the competitive future will depend. This requires a steady source of upskilled and new employees who have the understanding, knowledge, and experience to optimally utilise GenAI.
Universities, more than ever in recent times, are now pressured by declining enrolments to offer more relevant and useful foundations to all students. The key to relevance in today’s job market is knowledge and facility with utilising GenAI. Clearly, partnerships between corporations and industry associations with colleges and universities is a promising solution to the challenge of developing an AI-savvy workforce. It is in working together that we will be able to smoothly transition to the GenAI economy of 2024.
About the Authors
Ray Schroeder is a respected leader in higher education. He is the Professor Emeritus of Communication at the University of Illinois Springfield (UIS) and a Senior Fellow at UPCEA, the Online and Professional Education Association. Ray is a frequent author, speaker, and presenter on technology in education.
Katherine Kerpan is an accomplished marketing, communications, and product leader with over 20 years of experience driving complex initiatives at large non-profits. Currently, she works at her alma mater, Loyola University Chicago, as a project manager on the university’s enterprise marketing and communications team.
References
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