The 2024 Emmy nominations announcement being just one week away means that Gold Derby users have been shaping the odds in the 12 main acting races for over five months. At the end of June, eight of the initial dozen frontrunners could be credited with maintaining their top positions all season, but the same now applies to only six of them, all but one of whom are men.
The lone female February frontrunner left standing is Elizabeth Debicki (“The Crown”), whose victory on her second consecutive drama supporting actress bid seems quite assured. As of this week, she is generally expected to be joined in the winners’ circle by two-time comedy lead champ Jean Smart (“Hacks”), who started the season on top before being usurped by Ayo Edebiri (“The Bear”) a few weeks in. Now, two months after winning the favor of our Top 24 Users, Smart is every Gold Derby predictor subgroup’s first choice.
Smart’s July 2 ascension coincided with that of Hiroyuki Sanada (“Shōgun”), who displaced drama actor leader Gary Oldman (“Slow Horses”) seven weeks after his formerly limited series was reclassified as a continuing one. Five days later, “Shōgun” performer Anna Sawai similarly bumped Jennifer Aniston (“The Morning Show”) from the top of the drama actress heap. That lineup was soon further altered when experts’ favorite Emma Stone (“The Curse”) moved into the third place slot previously held by Imelda Staunton (“The Crown”).
This week’s fourth and final new frontrunner is Jessica Gunning (“Baby Reindeer”), who is now expected to defeat both initial leader Jennifer Jason Leigh (“Fargo”) and her June replacement, Kali Reis (“True Detective: Night Country”), in the movie/limited supporting actress contest. Gunning’s cast mate, Nava Mau, also just moved from sixth to fifth place in the same category, bumping Diane Lane (“Feud: Capote vs. The Swans”).
With nominations right around the corner, each of our predictor groups are holding firm to some choices that conflict with the generally agreed upon acting lineups. Their newest deviations concern Kelsey Grammer (comedy actor, “Frasier,” experts), Maya Erskine (drama actress, “Mr. & Mrs. Smith,” editors), and Maya Rudolph (comedy actress, “Loot,” all-stars), the last two of whom were already backed by our Top 24 Users.
Other non-generally predicted performers who nonetheless have the support of multiple Gold Derby subgroups are Paul W. Downs (“Hacks”), Holland Taylor (“The Morning Show”), Fumi Nikaido (“Shōgun”), and Finn Bennett (“True Detective”). Also worth noting is that, although no groups are currently forecasting a drama supporting bid for former consensus pick Mark Duplass (“The Morning Show”), he has moved back into his category’s first alternate position after dropping to 10th place in mid-June.
Be on the lookout for new state of the Emmys race updates every Tuesday leading up to the nominations announcement on July 17.
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