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US Economic Experts Panel

The Clark Center for Global Markets explores economists’ views on vital policy issues via our US and European Economic Experts Panels. We regularly poll over 80 economists on a range of timely and relevant topics. Panelists not only have the opportunity to respond to a poll’s statements, but an opportunity to comment and provide additional resources, if they wish. The Clark Center then shares the results with the public in a straightforward and concise format.

Please note that from September 2022, the language in our polls will use just two modifiers to refer to the size of an effect:

  • ‘Substantial’: when an effect is large enough that it would make a difference that matters for the behavior involved.
  • ‘Measurable’: when the direction of the effect is clear, but perhaps experts would differ as to whether it is substantial.
US

AI and Market Power

Question A:

Use of artificial intelligence is likely to lead to a substantial increase in problems associated with market power in digital markets.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology
Question B:

Artificial intelligence offers substantial opportunities for new entrants into digital markets that have previously been concentrated.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology
Question C:

Artificial intelligence is likely to be a highly concentrated industry, dominated by a handful of players.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology
 
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Regulation, Competition, & Market Power
US

Policy Responses to Recent Bank Failures

Question A:

Policy Responses to Recent Bank Failures


The response to recent bank failures should be to: Expand central banks’ lender of last resort facilities for banks.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology
Question B:

The response to recent bank failures should be to: Substantially increase the limit on bank deposit insurance.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology
Question C:

The response to recent bank failures should be to: Substantially increase bank capital requirements.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology
Question D:

The response to recent bank failures should be to: Use market values of all traded assets to compute banks’ regulatory capital.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology
 
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Business Cycles, Recessions, & Crises
US

Debt Sustainability

This US survey examines (a) Debt sustainability analysis – for example, as practiced currently by the International Monetary Fund – substantially improves the ability to predict future sovereign debt crises; (b) The European Commission’s proposed move from the existing EU fiscal rules to ones based on debt sustainability analysis would be a measurable improvement; (c) A move from the existing fiscal rules to independent fiscal councils would be more effective than a move to rules based on debt sustainability. 
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Public Debt & Deficits
US

Fiscal Rules

This US survey examines (a) Fiscal rules on budget deficits and public debt levels are an essential part of a sound fiscal framework; (b) Since the inception of the Stability and Growth Pact, budget deficits in Europe have been measurably lower, on average, than would have been the case without common budget rules; (c) Since the inception of the Stability and Growth Pact, the path of GDP growth in Europe has been measurably more stable than would have been the case without common budget rules 
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Business Cycles, Recessions, & Crises
US

Non-Bank Financial Intermediaries

This US survey examines (a) Non-bank financial intermediaries pose a substantial threat to financial stability; (b) Regulating the leverage and liquidity of non-bank financial intermediaries would substantially improve financial stability; (c) Given current regulations, non-bank financial intermediaries should not have access to central bank support 
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Business Cycles, Recessions, & Crises
US

Junk Fees

This US survey examines (a) An $8 cap on late fees for credit cards, as proposed by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, would lead to a substantial reduction in overall costs for consumers; (b) Requiring that all credit card fees and interest rates be transparent, prominently displayed, and easily searchable online would lead to a substantial reduction in overall costs for consumers; (c) Consumers would be measurably better off if efforts to reduce the impact of so-called ‘junk fees’ across the economy concentrated on making fees more transparent than on capping specific types of fees 
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Financial Regulation
US

Expectations, Policy and Growth

This US survey examines (a) When evaluating the consequences of any shifts in economic policy regimes, it is essential to consider potential changes in the behavior of economic agents due to revised expectations; (b) The empirical evidence on how monetary policy affects the economy in the short run is most consistent with the assumption that economic agents form rational expectations; (c) Economic research has established that the welfare consequences of differences in countries’ growth and level of development are substantially higher than the welfare costs of business cycles

 

  
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Business Cycles, Recessions, & Crises
US

TikTok

This US survey examines (a) If enacted and technologically effective, a national ban on the use of TikTok would have a measurably negative impact on US innovation; (b) If enacted and technologically effective, a national ban on the use of TikTok would have a measurably positive impact on the profits of the big US tech companies 
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Regulation, Competition, & Market Power
US

AI and Productivity Growth

This US survey examines (a) Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years will lead to a substantial increase in the growth rates of real per capita income in the US and Western Europe over the subsequent two decades; (b) Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years will have a substantially bigger impact on the growth rates of real per capita income in the US and Western Europe over the subsequent two decades than the internet has had over the past two decades 
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Economic Growth, Development, & Productivity
US

Dollar Dominance

This US survey examines (a) Use of the renminbi in world trade, as a reserve currency, and/or for foreign bond denomination is likely to increase substantially relative to the dollar over the next ten years; (b) Ceteris paribus, a shift to a more multi-polar international monetary system would have substantial negative implications for the US economy 
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Financial Markets & Banking
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Topics

BankingBondsBusiness Cycles, Recessions, & CrisesBusiness, Management, & Corporate PerformanceCorporate GovernanceDemocracy, Government, & Public PolicyDemographics, Aging, & GenderEconomic Growth, Development, & ProductivityEconomists, Economic Theory, & Economic OrganizationsEducation & SkillsEnvironment, Climate Change, & Natural ResourcesFinance and the EconomyFinancial CrisesFinancial Markets & BankingFinancial RegulationHealthcare & WellbeingInternational FinanceInternational Trade & Exchange RatesInvestment ManagementInvestment, Infrastructure, & CitiesInvestmentsJobs, Pay, & UnemploymentMigrationMonetary Policy, Interest Rates, & InflationPoverty, Inequality, & Social MobilityPublic Debt & DeficitsRegulation, Competition, & Market PowerScience, Technology, & InnovationSocial Policy & SocietyTaxes & Public SpendingTransport

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