2024 Presidential Election ~ 5

Four months to go!

Dems have to stop the bleeding NOW!

posted by margd this evening ~

Norman Ornstein @NormOrnstein | 11:08 AM · Jul 3, 2024:

If {Biden} resigns, there is no vice president. No easy path to get one confirmed. Mike Johnson next in line. Oy.

Christ on a God Damn cracker.

I've just listened to the July 3rd Keith Olbermann podcast. He has completely changed his mind in the last 24 hours. Biden indeed may have to quit because too many have turned on him now.

Keith thinks the odds are favoring Kamala Harris now.

We shall shortly find out, one supposes.

God Damn, what a effed-up society we live in. If some way isn't found to defeat the Orange Turd this November then we are going to be so very, very effed. The novel 1984 will become a god damn documentary.

How to Replace Biden: Longtime DNC Member Jim Zogby Proposes Process to Pick New Nominee
https://www.democracynow.org/2024/7/3/james_zogby_2024_biden_replacement_options
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Vu39seLqIo

Please God yes.

And lest it get lost in the furore, a happy 4th July holiday to all our US sisters and brothers. Today is also another momentous election day, in UK, where we hope for a left of centre government (albeit only slightly left of centre these days) after 14 years of right wing destruction and chaos (albeit slightly less destructive and chaotic than your US right wing).

>5 John5918: Hear, hear, John. All the best for your elections. Labour has been purged and made safe, but it will still be a relief to see the Tories slink out of power. As for our holiday: may it not prove the last worth celebrating for some time.

Sitting next to his son Barron, Donald Trump claims that President Biden is “quitting the race."
"Now we have Kamala. She’s so f—king bad.”
Unfit for office.

0:44 (https://x.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1808678911494046194)
From Jon Levine

- Republicans against Trump @RpsAgainstTrump | 9:47 PM · Jul 3, 2024

>5 John5918: Thanks for the sentiment John. From here it feels like wake. If we somehow get to 4 July 2025 with no Trump in office and the 2025 project relegated to a dystopian dream then I'll celebrate.

Sound familiar? (Headline concerns over Hillary's health)
https://x.com/Angry_Staffer/status/1808602985934602483/photo/1

Heartbreaking thought about an approaching historical date ~

If Trump wins the election this November, the White
House will be his home on July 4th, 2026.

Trump on Truth Social: Biden "choked like a dog" ... Kamala Harris ... Jack Smith ...

https://x.com/Logically_JC/status/1808942062093619378/photo/1

https://www.mediaite.com/news/we-must-not-fail-cheney-offers-stark-4th-of-july-w...
‘We Must Not Fail’: Cheney Offers Stark 4th of July Warning About Trump And His Threats to ‘Unravel Our Republic’

Ex-Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY) offered a stark message for July 4th as the country ponders President Joe Biden’s mental fitness and the likelihood of Donald Trump returning to the White House.

“Take a few minutes today to read David McCullough’s speech: ‘The Glorious Cause of America,’” Cheney wrote on X, sharing a link to the renowned historian’s speech.

https://speeches.byu.edu/talks/david-mccullough/glorious-cause-america/

4th July 2024 will certainly be celebrated in UK! Sanity has prevailed, and a Labour government has been voted in.

>13 John5918: We shall see, John. We shall see.

“What Keir has done is taken all the left out of the Labour Party,” billionaire businessman John Caudwell, previously a big Tory donor, told the BBC. “He's come out with a brilliant set of values and principles and ways of growing Britain in complete alignment with my views as a commercial capitalist.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/07/04/keir-starmer-uk-prime-minister/

>14 davidgn:

Indeed. But as in the USA, a less than perfect centrist party is at least better than the hard right alternative. And Jeremy Corbyn won his seat as an independent. He can provide a voice of conscience for Labour.

The Labour Party’s Lesson for the Democrats
Anne Applebaum | 5 July 2024

Addressing real voters’ problems is the antidote to left- and right-wing populism...

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2024/07/uk-elections-2024-labo...

The New York Times @nytimes | 1:50 PM · Jul 5, 2024:

In interviews at Independence Day events across battleground states, more than half of voters who had supported President Biden in 2020 now said he should drop out of the race. About a quarter said he should stay in. The rest were unsure.

Supporters of President Biden last week at a campaign event in Raleigh, N.C., a day after his debate. (https://x.com/nytimes/status/1809283633384968224) From nytimes.com (https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/05/us/elections/democratic-voter-biden-debate.html)
----------------------------------------

Joe Biden's condition: What advisors see behind closed doors
Colleen Long, Zeke Miller, Michael Balsamo, Aamer Madhani and Sylvie Corbet | Jul 04, 2024

Biden is often sharp and focused. But he also has moments, particularly later in the evening, when his thoughts seem jumbled and he trails off mid-sentence or seems confused...

https://nationalpost.com/news/joe-bidens-condition-what-advisors-see
--------------------------------------
Meanwhile,

Republicans Haven't Won Popular Vote in 20 Years?
We gathered all of the official vote tallies from presidential elections occurring in 2004, 2008, 2012, 2016 and 2020.
Jordan Liles | July 2, 2024

Claim:
The general election in the U.S. on Nov. 2, 2024, will mark exactly 20 years since a candidate for the Republican Party won the popular vote in a presidential election.

Rating: True...

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/republican-popular-vote-20-years/

>15 John5918: If I remember Starmer started out as a Corbynite. When opportunity came along to go in another direction though that was how he built his profile and it's very unlikely IMO that Britain's Labour Party which has been adapting what were conservative and right wing agendas say 10-15 years ago is going to start re-adapting the ideas of the Corbyn led Labour Party of just a few years ago. And really Corbyn's was a populist kind of left people's power of a dynamic and Starmer is more about corporate power and the wealthy. They're in two completely different places..... or almost. Sometimes though I think Corbyn realizes this less than Starmer and many Labour Party MPs.

>15 John5918: It's the paradox of democracy, isn't it? If you actually believe in democracy, and you have opinions on politics, then you have to accept that most of the time your positions will not win out - and that that's a good thing. After all, I don't want to live in a system where anyone gets to be a dictator, not even me.

>19 kiparsky:

Precisely.

People around the globe are witnessing two old coots in
the United States play a high-stakes game of chicken!

Eric Holder {AG 82} @EricHolder | 11:01 PM · Jul 5, 2024:

Cut the nonsense about Democrats not being “strong” like Republicans because we are now engaged in a difficult determination about who our nominee for President should be

It shows that we are a responsible political party and not a pathetic, dangerous cult

That’s true strength.

> 21

Yeah. Fer sure.

But if one old coot wins then we are all dead, in more ways than one. Boo, hiss.

In strict contrast, if the other old coot wins we at least get to live and have a chance to continue to disagree in the effort to make more perfect union. Yea us.

I'd say the stakes are high, but it ain't no effing game.

Time to Roll the Dice
Anne Applebaum | 3 July 2024

...The delegates to the Democratic National Convention don’t need to sleepwalk into catastrophe. They can demand that Biden release them from their pledge to support him. They can tear up the rule book, just like political parties do in other countries, and carry out a cold-blooded analysis.

Three states are essential to a Democratic presidential victory: Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. All three have popular, successful, articulate Democratic governors. A tactical, strategic political party would pick one of the three as its presidential nominee. The one who performs best on a debate stage, the one with the best polling, or the one who can raise the most money—the criterion doesn’t matter. Vice President Kamala Harris and any other candidates who stand a chance of winning those three states would be welcome to join the competition too. Everyone who enters should pledge their support to the winner.

The Democrats can hold a new round of primary debates, town halls, and public meetings from now until August 19, when the Democratic National Convention opens. Once a week, twice a week, three times a week—the television networks would compete to show them. Millions would watch. Politics would be interesting again. After a turbulent summer, whoever emerges victorious in a vote of delegates at the DNC can spend the autumn campaigning in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania—and win the presidency. America and the democratic alliance would be saved...

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/07/replace-biden-strategic-pla...

>24 margd: For once, Applebaum and I are in full agreement.

>24 margd: It makes a lot of sense. A couple things---donor money to the Biden/Harris campaign might not be transferrable to Josh Shapiro or Gretchen Whitmer. Some black voters might be put off by Kamala Harris getting kicked into the curb or at least I've read or heard that being posited from various quarters.

FWIW the Democrats worry a lot more over the money their campaigns bring in than their actual voters. It's why when their base wants one thing and their major donors want another they almost always side with the donors. Not like the Republicans don't do the same but their voters I think already kind of know that their pols aren't trying to make out like their 'good guys'. Whatever anyone thinks of Sanders in his two presidential campaigns he was able to get huge grassroots support at his rallies and raised a shitload of money from small donors. To me there is a way forward that way....it's just neither major political party wants to work that hard or speak for real to their voters concerns enough to get them more active. It's all about the billionaires.

One thing also I picked up from Biden's debate with Trump----Biden starts talking about taxing the wealthy again and that we could have this, that and the next thing if we did. This carrot has been dangled lots of times by Democrats and it's just not sincere. Again it's the wealthy they kowtow to and I think without some real action which is not coming anytime soon they've been to that well too many times that it's not credible any longer. Not just speaking about Biden here. This is 'we know your pain' stuff and they don't and don't really care.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ar-BB1pxjSu
Pope deplores state of democracy, warns against 'populists'

"Democracy is not in good health in the world today," Francis said during a speech at the city's convention centre to close a national Catholic event.

"Ideologies are seductive. Some people compare them to the Pied Piper of Hamelin: they seduce but lead you to deny yourself," he said in reference to the German fairytale.

Most everyone has a set of beliefs/truths--more or less it's their ideology. I don't have a big issue with Pope Francis. IMO he's easily the best pope in my lifetime but a particular religious faith and particularly one shared by hundreds of millions also serves as an ideology. Any religious faith....any set of beliefs really. Some things for sure are over the top such as those who believe JFK is still alive. Capitalism on the one hand is an economic theory with philosophical pillars but it's also an ideology like socialism, communism, anarchism. Sometimes these world leaders talk to us all like we're children.

People are social with a great tendency to share within their group or groups they align themselves to.

It’s Time to Get Used to the Idea of President Kamala Harris (Opinion)
David Rothkopf | Jul. 07, 2024

If Kamala Harris runs, she has a very good chance of winning, given Donald Trump’s grotesque defects—and her strengths.

...While there are those who may argue against Harris’ candidacy because of the historical misogyny of American voters, that case seems to have faded in recent years. While Trump did beat Hillary Clinton in 2016, it is important to remember she won the popular vote. Further, of course, America finally did elect a woman on a national ticket in 2020—Harris...

https://www.thedailybeast.com/its-time-to-get-used-to-the-idea-of-president-kama...
___________________________________

Trump Advisers Plot Game Plan to Take on Threat of Kamala Harris
Donald Trump’s team is reportedly concerned about a potential Kamala Harris at the top of the ticket.

...Harris, who is nearly two decades younger than Biden and Trump, would likely appeal to independent and Democratic voters who have expressed interest in a younger candidate. She could also potentially increase voter turnout among women, who tend to vote in greater numbers than men.

Harris, who has been a sharp critic of measures restricting abortion across the country, could help to recenter the overturning of Roe v. Wade as the key issue in the upcoming election. Abortion access was a winning policy point for Democrats during the 2022 elections and could ensure a renewed wave of enthusiasm and turnout in November...

https://newrepublic.com/post/183497/trump-advisers-game-plan-threat-kamala-harri...

The New Republic @newrepublic | 1:55 PM · Jul 7, 2024:

We chose the {magazine's} cover image, based on a well-known 1932 Hitler campaign poster, for a precise reason: that anyone transported back to 1932 Germany could very, very easily have explained away Herr Hitler’s excesses and been persuaded that his critics were going overboard. After all, he spent 1932 campaigning, negotiating, doing interviews—being a mostly normal politician. But he and his people vowed all along that they would use the tools of democracy to destroy it, and it was only after he was given power that Germany saw his movement’s full face.

Today, we at The New Republic think we can spend this election year in one of two ways. We can spend it debating whether Trump meets the nine or 17 points that define fascism. Or we can spend it saying, “He’s damn close enough, and we’d better fight.”

We unreservedly choose the latter course. And so we have assembled herein some of our leading intellectual historians of fascism; a member of the fourth estate who learned firsthand what the Trump lash feels like; a leading expert on civil-military relations; a great Guatemalan American novelist with a deep understanding of immigrants’ lives; one of our most incisive cultural critics; and a man with all-too-real experience in living under a notorious authoritarian regime. The scenarios they describe are certainly grim. We dare you to say, after reading these pieces, that they are impossible.

COVER (https://x.com/newrepublic/status/1810009748697448541/photo/1)
----------------------------------------

What American Fascism Would Look Like
Michael Tomasky | June 2024 Issue

It can happen here. And if it does, here is what might become of the country.

Yes, That’s Right: American Fascism
Why waste time debating the extent of Trump’s fascism when we ought to be fighting it instead?

The “Day One” Dictatorship
On the law in a fascist America
Federico Finchelstein, Emmanuel Guerisoli

Revenge and Freedom From Fact
On the media in a fascist America
Brian Stelter

A Right-Wing Counter-Hegemony
On culture in a fascist America
Maureen Corrigan

The Permanent Counterrevolution
On politics and government in a fascist America
Ruth Ben-Ghiat

The End of Civic Compassion
On education in a fascist America
Jason Stanley

From Texas to Massachusetts
On the border in a fascist America
Francisco Goldman

The Liberal Fantasy Is Just That
On the military in a fascist America
Rosa Brooks

A Cowed Normality
On daily life in a fascist America
Kian Tajbakhsh

https://newrepublic.com/series/37/trump-2024-american-fascism-series
______________________________

The New Republic @newrepublic | 3:25 PM · Jul 7, 2024:

While you're all here, the July/August issue is also a great read.

Liberalism has saved this country from the forces of reaction before. Is it up to the task today?

Series: https://newrepublic.com/series/39/liberalism-today

I know the USA is different, but you might draw at least a little hope from the two recent elections in Europe where the hard right has been held at bay, by a landslide in UK and more tenuously in France.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/08/biden-blasts-elites-urging-him-to-exit-race-in-s...
Biden blasts ‘elites’ urging him to exit race in surprise interview

President Joe Biden defended his place at the top of the Democratic ticket Monday in a surprise television interview on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe,” after more lawmakers and donors came forward over the weekend with concerns about his reelection bid.

“I’m not going anywhere,” Biden said in the phone interview. “I absolutely believe that I am the best candidate to beat Donald Trump in 2024.”

“I’m getting so frustrated by the elites in the party” calling on him to step down, the president fumed. “I don’t care what the millionaires think.”

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ray-dalio-says-trump-and-biden-reflect-decades...
Ray Dalio says Trump and Biden reflect decades of ‘horrendous leadership’ by baby boomers

Dalio, who himself was born in New York City in 1949, said the generation of which he’s a member has overseen a decline in America that has led to “huge polarities in opportunities and living conditions” and resulted in the loss of the U.S.’s “economic, military, and moral leadership in the world.”

The billionaire hedge-fund manager blamed boomers’ poor leadership for this decline, as he argued the generation — born between 1946 and 1964 — has overseen a breakdown of the American dream that was formed through the work of the Greatest Generation, who endured the Wall Street crash of 1929 and the Great Depression and went on to win World War II.

>32 Molly3028: I listened to that interview. All I heard was a whiney old man standing on his rights. I was not impressed. No matter, anything other than Trump.

I’ve been paying attention to how Kamala Harris sounds too. She has lost the power she exhibited as a presidential candidate four years ago. She now sounds like a second tier submissive.

>34 2wonderY: I liked her answer as to how she'd handle Trump stalking around her on debate stage as he did with Hillary. ~"Why are you acting so weird?" Her prosecutorial background might serve her well-- also if/when he'd throw some fellow from her past ("Willie"?)

>34 2wonderY:

I contend that in 2021 Biden's age and possible frailty led to a decision that Kamala would take a very low-profile stance in the administration. Staying in her lane and not outperforming the president in any way was deemed to be the proper course of action going forward. That is especially important now that his actual frailty has been exposed, but he is adamant about continuing the fight.

So first the NY Post and then The NY Times reporting that between July 2023 and March 2024 Dr. Kevin Canard a neurologist and Parkinson's disease expert at Walter Reed Hospital is on the log for visiting someone at the White House if anyone wants to guess who that is.

My father-in-law had Parkinson's. Not being a doctor though I would say that Biden does not have the shakiness my father-in-law had and his impaired motor skills were observable before his dementia set in. Parkinson's and dementia do go together though.

>31 John5918: Vive la France!
Tenuously in both, really, taking into account the shallowness of the turnout.

But I'd be lying if I said those results did not dramatically improve my week.

Iran, too, may have taken a turn for the better in presidential election of reformist candidate Masoud Pezeshkian over hardliner:

"...Pezeshkian promised no radical changes to Iran's Shia theocracy in his campaign and has long held Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as the final arbiter of all matters of state in the country.

But even Pezeshkian's modest aims will be challenged by an Iranian government still largely held by hardliners, the ongoing Israel-Hamas war in the Gaza Strip and Western fears over Tehran enriching uranium to near-weapons-grade levels.

Pezeshkian's victory also wasn't a rout of Jalili, meaning he'll have to carefully navigate Iran's internal politics, as the doctor has never held a sensitive, high-level security post.

...Though identifying with reformists and relative moderates within Iran's theocracy during the campaign, Pezeshkian at the same time honoured Iran's paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, on one occasion wearing its uniform to parliament.

He repeatedly criticized the U.S. and praised the Guard for shooting down an American drone in 2019, saying it "delivered a strong punch in the mouth of the Americans and proved to them that our country will not surrender."..."

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/masoud-pezeshkian-wins-iran-runoff-presidential-el...

Democrats Need to Be More French
To defeat Trump, do something.
Thomas Chatterton Williams | 9 July 2024

"The French have not been beaten into a state of learned helplessness by the possibility of right-wing extremism"

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/07/french-election-second-round-f...

The French beat off the right by moving to the left. I don't see the democrats doing that. IMO a lot of them would rather Trump than Sanders or even AOC. And FWIW Sanders and AOC are still backing Biden. Sanders did offer Biden a bit of advice. Turn off his teleprompters and prove he can still talk on his own. Pretty sure that's not going to happen and if the vote were being held today I believe that the Democrats would get killed. Got to ask the likelihood that things are going to get better before November. My guess is no. If Biden still has his wits about him he's going to have to go out prove it or his goose is cooked and that means pretty much all the time.

Beyond the dementia issue though I think he is delusional. He overlooks the damaging effect to his voting base of the current genocide in Gaza. He believes democratic voters have really chosen him when he was put in place by the elite in his party....when they pretty much demolished all his competition for him. Loads of people pulled the lever for him in 2020 not because they liked him but because of the damage Trump had done to the country and he was who was given to the public by the dem establishment to vote Trump out. Now he's okay with losing if he gives his goodest effort? and if he loses he can ride off into the sunset? Wouldn't shock me if Trump threw his sorry ass in jail and if that happens his sorry ass in the clink is not something I'm going to worry overmuch about. The democrats as 'party of the resistance' after running with a nursing home candidate I don't think that line is going to work quite the same the next time around if Donald's stupid ass gets back in power. They need to kick him to the curb pronto.

https://www.mediaite.com/biden/oceans-a-leavin-george-clooney-confirms-bidens-de...
Ocean’s A-Leavin’: George Clooney Confirms Biden’s Decline in ‘Devastating’ Call For Him to Drop Out

“I love Joe Biden. As a senator. As a vice president and as president. I consider him a friend, and I believe in him. Believe in his character. Believe in his morals. In the last four years, he’s won many of the battles he’s faced,” Clooney wrote. He went on to claim that Biden did not appear mentally fit when they met at the fundraiser three weeks ago, writing, “he wasn’t even the Joe Biden of 2020.”

Clooney continued, “But the one battle he cannot win is the fight against time. None of us can. It’s devastating to say it, but the Joe Biden I was with three weeks ago at the fund-raiser was not the Joe “big F-ing deal” Biden of 2010. He wasn’t even the Joe Biden of 2020. He was the same man we all witnessed at the debate.”

Trump’s ‘secretary of retribution’ has a ‘target list’ of 350 people he wants arrested

https://www.rawstory.com/raw-investigates/ivan-raiklin/

Raiklin is seeking to enlist so-called “constitutional” sheriffs in rural, conservative counties across the country to detain Trump’s political enemies. Or, as he says, carry out “live-streamed swatting raids” against individuals on his “Deep State target list.”

https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/10/politics/chicago-donors-fundraiser-convention/ind...
‘Everything is frozen’: Donors hold back dollars amid fallout over Biden’s candidacy

“Everything is frozen because no one knows what’s going to happen. Everyone is in wait and see mode,” one Democratic strategist told CNN, noting that donors are hyper-focused on what Biden is doing, including interviews and his news conference Thursday.

Donors often operate behind the scenes and, according to sources, have grown increasingly anxious about Biden’s candidacy following his halting debate performance last month. And on Wednesday, George Clooney, who had been among Biden’s biggest supporters and donors in Hollywood, took the remarkable step of publicly calling for him to bow out of the presidential race.

“Major donations have slowed remarkably since the debate,” a Democratic fundraiser told CNN, adding that small dollar donations are proceeding at pace, but noted the campaign is too vast to live on small donations alone.

***
The big money people always control the final decision.

>41 lriley: The French beat off the right by moving to the left.

I don't think that's entirely correct, although Melenchon would be happy to hear you put it that way. What actually happened, I think, was that the center-left consolidated the opposition to the right by agreeing that the third-place candidates would drop out, leaving a clearer choice. We have yet to see what the new government will look like, but it would be a mistake to assume that infer anything about the strength of the left in France based on this turnout. For now, what we're calling the right continues to gain strength, and for now those gains are mostly coming, as you would expect, at the expense of the center, which makes the left look relatively stronger. But as in the UK election, if you look at the shifts it's not that the left gained, it's that the extreme right is gaining power from the center-right.

Going forward, the question will be whether these changes are sticky or if people revert to their old behavior. Labour now has to decide whether they want to read their result as a mandate for a far-left platform that they didn't run on (which would be, IMO, a mistake) or whether it's better to take over the "competent center" position that the Tories let slip away under Johnson and Truss, and which Sunak was unable to reclaim, though clearly that was his hope.

As for Gaza, I know it's a big issue for you, but I think you might be overestimating its actual impact in races. Looking again at the UK election (and relying heavily on the analysis from Ian Hislop and the Private Eye folks) it doesn't look like Gaza made a lot of difference for people who tried to make it a central issue. For example, obviously it did not help George Galloway to keep his seat...

Reading this Daily Beast story today. Apparently yesterday there was a meeting of democratic house members one of whom afterwards said that some of the members were in tears about Biden continuing on---the Daily Beast cited an Axios report on that. No doubt they're fearing that he's going to kill some of them down ballot.

For someone who often had antagonistic work relationships with his bosses I kind of find this tears thing (over a job even a glorified one) hilarious though I'll admit it helped in my case that the Post Office was unionized. I do get that people do get attached to their jobs particularly when they have people at their beck and call fawning over them all the time and a real nice pay check and a fabulous benefit package.......though I can't imagine wanting to go on and on into my 60's, 70's and 80's like some of the fossils we have in DC and I'm mid 60's. All that said if they're that concerned it's time to tell him to please leave and he doesn't want to go still tell him get out.

>45 kiparsky: Looking again at the UK election... it doesn't look like Gaza made a lot of difference for people who tried to make it a central issue

Well, I would say yes and no. True, George Galloway was not elected, but he carries a lot of baggage, pro and con. But in the east London constituency where I grew up and where I am still registered as an overseas voter, the sitting Labour candidate comfortably beat the Tory candidate, but kept his seat by a majority of only 528 votes over an independent candidate standing on a pro-Palestinian ticket, 15,647 (33.3% of the vote) against 15,119 (32.2%). That's very close indeed, and if that sort of figure is mirrored in other constituencies nationwide, it certainly gives a signal to the Labour government that Gaza is an important issue for up to a third of the electorate. I voted Labour, of course, but if I had known for sure in advance that they would win such a national landslide, I would probably have voted for the pro-Gaza candidate. She's a young British woman of Palestinian extraction, born and grown up in the constituency just like me, and I have already written to her to encourage her, and to my Labour MP who now has a ministerial position in the government congratulating him but urging him to do the right thing over the Gaza conflict.

Why do politicians hate ‘the elite’ – when they are the elite? (Guardian)

A quick quiz for you: define “the elite”. Perhaps you answered with something along the lines of “people with superior abilities”? Or maybe you defined it as: “the wealthiest and most powerful people in the world”? Neither of those is correct. Nope, “the elite” is now a derogatory term used by politicians to mean anyone who disagrees with them. It’s the defining political insult of our time. Donald Trump kicked off this trend... “the elite” has become a handy shorthand for conservatives who want to shut down debate; a useful way for powerful insiders to position themselves as victimised outsiders... Joe Biden has cottoned on to this. On Monday the embattled president called into MSNBC’s Morning Joe and railed against “the elites” who are urging him to stand down after his disastrous debate performance...

Even if the net loss of votes is only 1% nationwide in a close election that could be the difference between winning/losing 3 or 4 states and I would think President Biden's stance on the conflict is a loser and by a greater margin than that. He won the Arabic vote handily last time around if I remember correctly. He also needs young people and though he might not lose a lot of those voters to Trump---I would expect 3rd party candidates are going to do better than ever as well as many in those two constituencies are just going to stay home. Hilary lost Michigan in 2016 because of low turnout and Michigan is where the Arabic American vote counts the most. Pro-Israel donors have tried to find a challenger in Rashida Tlaib's district and they pretty much went nowhere even with the promise of $millions. Tlaib is Palestinian American and the most vociferous on Gaza in congress. I suspect this coming elections numbers are going to be very depressed and probably for both candidates. Trump seems to have lost popularity as well but depressed numbers usually favor republicans more than democrats.

FWIW I'd rather that Biden's support for Israel were more from a lack of awareness/knowledge of what's gone on due to dementia issues than if he were fully cognizant of aiding and abetting a genocide. In either case I don't want him running and will not vote for him. Read an article today where some NYS democrats are worried that the state could swing the other way. I find that rather stunning......and if they really think that I think it shows the democrats are absolutely lost going down the road any further with him. No way that should happen and if that is so other states considered safe democratic states being up for grabs too. Also seeing polls where Hilary Clinton beats Trump, Kamala Harris beats Trump, generic Democrat beats Trump but Trump easily beats Biden.

>49 lriley: If we look at it purely as a matter of electoral arithmetic, you've not considered the Israel supporters here. Your position is essentially that by failing to support your preferred basket of policies, Biden loses enough "pro-Palestinian" voters to cost him the election. But you say nothing at all about the "pro-Israeli" voters (both labels are pretty dodgy, hence the scare quotes) that he loses by supporting the policies that you prefer.

Since you're making an argument purely from electoral arithmetic, this seems an important omission. If the latter number is larger than the former, then where does your argument stand?

>47 John5918: I'm not able to comment on that race, of course, but I'm not seeing anything in the overall results that suggests that a third of the voters are basing their votes on Gaza - which would actually be an undercount, since it doesn't include those who base their votes on the Gaza situation but happen to support the failed Israeli government rather than the Palestinian pseudo-government.

I wonder if there are other factors that might have led to those votes? As I said, I'm not seeing a lot to suggest that this was a Labour victory, it seems pretty clear that it was a resounding Tory defeat, and there were a lot of Lib Dem and Reform votes, even if those are not reflected in seats that they took.

>51 kiparsky: I'm not seeing a lot to suggest that this was a Labour victory, it seems pretty clear that it was a resounding Tory defeat

Yes, I think that is true. Perhaps the "victory" for Labour was that enough people at least think they have the credibility to govern, unlike the Tories, even if it wasn't really a vote for Labour policies. It was certainly a victory for a lot of smaller parties. Maybe the beginning of the end of the two-party domination in UK? And while Labour will probably remain wedded to the first past the post electoral system which has served them well in this election, I hope there will be a new push for some form of proportional representation now that more smaller parties have a voice in parliament.

On Gaza, I'm told that Labour has already indicated that His Majesty's Government will no longer oppose the war crimes charges against Netanyahu. That should not be a matter of partisan politics but simply the rule of international (and domestic) law.

UK voter turnout at 59.9% was the lowest since 2001--59.4%. The second vote in France was high for that country. Quite a lot these days it's not enthusiasm for a candidate that brings many voters out but voting against someone. The winners wherever usually play that fact down. I watch some variety of UK political YouTube sites such as Novara quite often so the results the other day weren't much of a surprise. It has been a foregone conclusion that Rishi Sunak and the Tories were going to take a thrashing months ago. All that said looking at the massive protests against Israel that have been going on for months there is really not a lot of love for Keir Starmer who even had to fight off a pretty decent challenge from his left in his own home district. He's not loved. It's just Sunak had reached the point of being actively hated by what seems like a majority of Britons. There was also an uprising on Sunak's right from Nigel Farage's party. The party that benefited most from that is Labour.

On another Northern Ireland tangent. Sinn Fein is now the most representative Northern Ireland party in the House of Commons. The %'s of Unionist voters in Ulster have been shrinking for a while (more than anything because of birth rate) but there's still some advantage. The DUP has been rocked by corruption (and sex?) scandals though and their support for Brexit since before and after implementation has come back to bite them in the ass. There is now a thing of former Unionist voters even voting for Republican/Nationalist candidates over this particular issue because it means money out of their wallets/purses. Anyway for those in the United States 'Republican' and 'Nationalist' are a completely different thing in Northern Ireland. Irish republicans tend towards socialism. For them nationalism is not tossing immigrants and undocumented out (though in the Irish Republic there certainly are plenty of those as we've seen recently) but for the unification of the Irish Republic with Northern Ireland into one country or in another words the British get out. With the implementation of the peace agreement in 1998 that can happen with a province wide referendum and probably a referendum will come around some time in the future.

>53 lriley: Sinn Fein is now the most representative Northern Ireland party in the House of Commons

But unless they've changed their policy, they're not in the House of Commons as they have always refused to take their seats there, not recognising the authority of the UK parliament over part of Ireland. One can respect that stance, but it's a pity really, as there have been a number of very close votes over the years where Sinn Fein would likely have voted against the Tories and a handful of votes would have made a difference.

https://www.mediaite.com/news/new-york-times-editorial-board-calls-for-republica...
New York Times Editorial Board Calls for Republicans To Reject Trump

The New York Times editorial board called for the Republican Party to reject former President Donald Trump as its presidential candidate on Thursday, branding him as “dangerous” and “unfit to lead.”

The editorial comes on the heels of two editorial board essays that called for Democratic candidate, President Joe Biden, to step aside due to concerns over his mental fitness, and just days before Trump is expected to accept the GOP nomination at the Republican National Convention.

In the article, the Times’ board described Trump as “dangerous” and a man who “loathes the laws” foundational to the United States.

A very consequential election is going to take place in four months, and it appears BOTH parties prefer to play enable-the-candidate games with old, disabled coots. America needs Jack-&-Harry types ~ 'Speed' movie/elevator scene/think-out-of-the-box types ~ to save us from the November insanity coming our way.

https://www.mediaite.com/news/hot-numbers-coming-in-cnbc-gushes-about-fantastic-...
‘Hot Numbers Coming In!’ CNBC Gushes About ‘Fantastic’ Inflation Numbers Ahead Of High Stakes Biden Press Conference

>54 John5918:--the point of them being who they are though is they think of themselves as Irish and they definitely do not think of themselves as British. For them the United Kingdom is a foreign country and one they have an antagonistic history with. Once you started playing the game you're always playing the game....then you become a part of the whole and at which point you've lost sight of who you are and what you once stood for.

https://www.mediaite.com/politics/two-thirds-of-americans-call-both-biden-and-tr...
Two-Thirds of Americans Call Both Biden and Trump ‘Embarrassing’ in New Pew Poll — Even More Dub Trump ‘Mean-Spirited’

**********
https://www.mediaite.com/politics/just-in-axios-reports-deluge-of-democratic-law...
JUST IN: Axios Reports ‘Deluge’ of Democratic Lawmakers to Call For Biden to Drop Out

Axios @axios | 6:46 AM · Jul 12, 2024 {X}:
Biden delivered a press conference performance strong enough to buy time from fence-sitting Democrats — but wobbly enough to keep the mutiny armed and dangerous.

Biden buys time: 5 takeaways from the NATO press conference
Zachary Basu, Hans Nichols | 12 July 2024

5 takeaways
1. Polling denial.
2. "Bridge candidate" no more.
3. Gaffes fuel groans.
4. "Pacing" and blame.
5. Floodgates crack open.

https://www.axios.com/2024/07/12/biden-nato-press-conference-takeaways
---------------------------------------------
ETA
Behind the Curtain: Committee to Unelect the President
Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen | 12 July 2024

President Biden beat back the initial public campaign by Democrats to oust him from the party's presidential ticket, swiftly and decisively. But very-connected Democrats, mostly veterans of the Obama and Clinton administrations, are plotting hourly to get him to withdraw quickly.

They're commissioning polls, lobbying former presidents, back-channeling Democratic leaders, organizing donors and taking the fight to Biden in a very public way.

They're the unofficial Committee to Unelect the President. The mission: Push Biden out of the presidential race — the sooner, the better.

The committee includes:
Former Obama aides:
Former Clinton advisers:
Elected Dems:
Swing-seat Dems:
The donor class:
Late-night liberals:
N.Y. Times Opinion:
Biden aides busily leaking:

...{David Axelrod (Obama's ruthlessly pragmatic chief strategist)} aims to be "both realistic and respectful ... President Biden is a historic figure, and a lot of that is gonna be tainted if he persists and loses this race ... The people around him have (a collective) hundreds of years of campaign experience. They know how to interpret data. They know how to read the moment. It's just a question of whether their affection for him clouds that."

https://www.axios.com/2024/07/12/biden-news-old-democrats-president

>59 Molly3028: it is like both major parties decided in 2020 to go with their worst possible candidate and here we are doing it again with the same in 2024. I would have kind of expected that from the Republican Party (combined with the most terrible policy platform) anyway though the democrats have been doing the same ever since Obama's disappointing 8 years.

How is this going to end?---well if the democrats are going to prevail they are going to have to jettison their nominee. Curious however that Adam Smith Washington State congressman was reminding some television media host the other day that the real reason that Biden became POTUS at all was to stop Sanders from winning the Democratic nomination in 2020 after he started that primary year with win after win and Obama being the chief architect of that is going to have to be the one to tell Biden it's time to go though I suspect there are going to be a chorus of voices behind him like Pelosi and at least some if not all of Schumer, Hilary, Jefferies, Clyburn etc. I can imagine as in your Axios link all of them are fielding lots of texts and phone calls from frightened members of their caucus all day long and it's only going to increase.

The Lincoln Project @ProjectLincoln | 9:00 PM · Jul 10, 2024 X:

For those who haven't yet imagined the death of American democracy, we imagined it for you. Watch here.

Aftermath (4:14)
https://x.com/ProjectLincoln/status/1811203755905360308

Donald Trump Gets Bad News From Black Voters
James Bickerton | Jul 12, 2024

The proportion of Black voters in seven key battleground states who would vote for Joe Biden against Donald Trump has surged by 15 points, according to a new survey for BlackPAC.

Between February and June, backing for Biden went from 50 percent to 65 percent "if the election for President were held today" and the pro-Trump share declined from eight percent to seven percent. The proportion backing third party candidates Jill Stein, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West fell from 17 percent to 11 percent, and those who were "undecided" also fell, from 25 percent to 18 percent...

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-gets-bad-news-black-voters-1924324

https://www.thedailybeast.com/the-barron-fist-pump-which-reveals-donald-trumps-p...
The Barron Fist Pump Which Reveals Donald Trump's Plan for a MAGA Dynasty

Barron Trump looked born for the role. Which, of course, he was. Earlier this week he made his first appearance at one of his father's political rallies. And he looked anything but an 18-year-old novice.

Barron was sitting at the front of the crowd but as soon as Donald Trump pointed at him and began to introduce him, the 18-year-old moved like a practiced veteran. He lifted his 6’7” frame upwards, waved his right hand to all sides and acknowledged the applause. This looked easy.

Towering over those around him he then held a clenched left fist above his head in a power salute, turned to the crowd behind one more time and cracked a knowing, half-smile.

That was the money shot. The choreography could not have been better.

***
Barron is now fair game!

>64 Molly3028: He even has a younger version of his father's hairdo!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_WyUGCS3J2I

Neurologist pointing out Biden's symptoms vis-a-vis Parkinson's disease.

Feeding the conspiracy theorists to win an election...

Russia Gloats Over Shooting: ‘Trump Has Biden’s Balls in his Hand’
Julia Davis | Jul. 14, 2024

Propagandists are giddy with excitement, saying they had predicted Biden would try to have Trump killed and claiming their MAGA hero is now certain to win...

https://thedailybeast.com/russia-gloats-over-shooting-trump-has-bidens-balls-in-...

Edward Luce @EdwardGLuce | 4:33 AM · Jul 14, 2024:
Associate Editor, Financial Times, US-based writer/columnist. Author The Retreat of Western Liberalism, In Spite of the Gods, Time to Start Thinking.

Almost any criticism of Trump is already being spun by Maga as an incitement to assassinate him. This is an Orwellian attempt to silence what remains of the effort to stop him from regaining power.

Nikki has decided to attend and speak at the convention. I wouldn't be surprised if she ends up being Trump's VP pick! Getting Project 2025 going is the main GOP goal going forward.

>69 Molly3028: Sonofabitch.

Trump would never pick Hailey. He'll pick someone much more subservient to him

https://www.mediaite.com/news/liz-cheney-warns-jd-vance-will-help-trump-illegall...
Liz Cheney Warns JD Vance Will Help Trump ‘Illegally Seize Power’

Taking to X in reaction, Cheney wrote: “Vance has pledged he would do what Mike Pence wouldn’t – overturn an election and illegally seize power. He says the president can ignore the rulings of our courts. He would capitulate to Russia and sacrifice the freedom of our allies in Ukraine.”

In a further indictment of the Republican Party, she added: “The Trump GOP is no longer the party of Lincoln, Reagan or the Constitution.”

The RFK Jr camp leaked a video of a phone call from Trump to RFK after the shooting where he promised him a job in his Admin if he would drop out & endorse him, disclosed what Biden told him when he called him, and ranted about child vaccines. Story.

RFK Jr. Camps Leaks Video of Trump Call
The video was posted to twitter.
Ron Filipkowski | 16 July 2024

Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. apologized this morning on Twitter for a video that was leaked by his campaign of his phone call with Donald Trump shortly after his assassination attempt. It was apparently posted by his videographer and/or his son, and appears to be a push by Trump to get Kennedy to drop out of the race and endorse him...

https://meidasnews.com/news/rfk-jr-apologizes-for-leaked-video-of-trump-call
----------------------------
ETA:
Robert F. Kennedy Jr @RobertKennedyJr | 9:07 AM · Jul 16, 2024:
When President Trump called me I was taping with an in-house videographer. I should have ordered the videographer to stop recording immediately. I am mortified that this was posted. I apologize to the president.

We have been becoming more and more of a security state and all that ramped up after 9-11. POTUS's ever since have pushed for and gotten (or taken) more and more powers. I think the Republicans are somewhat more keen on grabbing it but even so it's not like both parties aren't intent on that. A lot of what concerns republicans is spitting in the wind. They think they can push back evolution and the movement of history but humankind is always in flux--going on into further stages of evolvement. We're not here forever. We're just passing through.

This post-assassination period appears to be very different from the post-assassination period in the early 1980's. I was in my 30's back then. Shots being fired off has become a way too common occurrence in the 2020's.

Did Trump or anyone at the convention even mention the names of the MAGAs involved and/or have a minute of silence for the one who died sheltering his daughter???

Steven Rattner @SteveRattner | 9:01 AM · Jul 16, 2024:
Former head of Obama Auto Task Force. Wall Street financier. Contributing Writer to NY Times Op-Ed. Morning Joe Economic Analyst.

Project 2025 shifts taxes from the wealthy to the middle class— a family of 4 earning $100K would suffer a $2,600 tax hike, while a family earning $5 million would get a $325,000 tax cut.

Graph middle class tax increase (https://x.com/SteveRattner/status/1813197346177470906/photo/1)

Project 2025 would overhaul the U.S. tax system. Here's how it could impact you.
Aimee Picchi | 12 July 2024
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/project-2025-tax-trump-economy-heritage-foundation-...

https://www.mediaite.com/news/russian-state-media-pundit-celebrates-jd-vances-vp...
Russian State Media Pundit Celebrates JD Vance’s VP Selection, Labels Him ‘Trumpier Than Trump’

Brian Cardone 🏴‍☠️🇺🇦 cardon_brian | 11:26 AM · Jul 17, 2024:
#LincolnVoter #DemsAct #DemVoice1 #wtpBlue. {NC}

🚨WOW🚨This is one of the most clear and concise breakdowns of #TrumpIsProject2025 I’ve seen so far! @MollyJongFast {MSNBC etc.}
hits it out of the park, y’all need to stop what you’re doing and watch this!👇#wtpBlue #DemVoice1

4:33 (https://x.com/cardon_brian/status/1813596190950453448)
From Biden-Harris HQ

The American republic is crumbling before us – and Democrats must share the blame

The dysfunctional US economic system doesn’t work for ordinary people – making it ripe for exploitation by a demagogue such as Trump...

We need to do all we can to lower the anger pervading American politics

Trump’s messages to his followers during this election season has had a constant undercurrent of violence...

Both from the Guardian

>79 John5918: Of course the Democratic Party has been a partner with the Republicans in the demise we're going through and for years and years. The question all this time really is which party is worse and the Republican ideology of we don't give a shit about the poor, the unwashed, the immigrant etc. has always stood out starkly and is pretty out front but the Democrats all the same will throw any number of people or even interest groups under the bus if that's what their major donors want. They just want to come across as everyone's friend but there's never anything sincere about any of it. It's mostly all fake. Just to throw this out there---the whole point of Bill Clinton's third way politics was to appropriate Ronald Reagan's achievements and make them at least partly his own. They've not been off of that direction since then. To them whatever they have that is 'left'will reluctantly follow along as they become more and more conservative in their approach and agenda and it's happening again as Sanders and AOC etc. have become Biden's biggest supporters to stay in the race. Center to the right politics are what makes their big shot donors happy and much of what has become Biden's policy in Gaza could arguably be attributed to Bill Ackman and other P.O.S. donors like him who want more bombs going that way and dead bodies and college protesters getting their heads cracked and their lives destroyed. Ackman's opinion carries a lot more weight than hundreds of thousands.....millions of ordinary people......and he's only one of the anointed kingmakers and just a bit of irony recently late in the game Ackman throws his support to Trump because Joe has just not been forceful enough on the issue. But really he's the kind that Dem pols are always chasing.

This recording of JD Vance has popped up of him praising Kyle Rittenhouse

https://x.com/JoshuaPHilll/status/1813955300682256760

>82 kiparsky: The guy does seem to have pretty flexible views - what he thought yesterday really doesn't seem to have much bearing on what he thinks today. I would imagine he's firmly and unalterably opposed to political violence for the next few weeks at the very least.

https://www.mediaite.com/tv/chris-wallace-hits-back-on-claim-trump-has-changed-h...
Chris Wallace Hits Back on Claim Trump Has Changed: ‘He Couldn’t Keep Up the Act’ in ‘Rambling’ RNC Speech

Speaking to his network colleague Jake Tapper, Wallace concluded, “Jake, we have ourselves a presidential campaign again.”

***
Trump is a robot which lacks filters and off-switch mechanisms.

Hulk Hogan, but no former R president or nominee, spoke at RNC Conference?

litquidity @litcapital | 9:43 PM · Jul 18, 2024:

Imagine not being from the US and watching this as part of our presidential election process

0:20 (https://x.com/litcapital/status/1814113703488270795)
From Ian Miles Cheong

Kid Rock introduces R nominee to crowd of tens?

Charlie Sykes {MSNBC} @SykesCharlie | 3:46 PM · Jul 18, 2024 {X}:
Kid Rock gives a taste of what’s to come…
0:33 (https://x.com/SykesCharlie/status/1814023988752105834)

>84 margd: Trump has always had an obsession with stage managed steroid happy fake wrestling. As far as Bush, the Cheney's, Romney it's not really a surprise they're all persona non grata....none of them carry much weight anymore anyway---perhaps Romney with Utah republicans who seem to be a somewhat different breed than standardized right voters. Truthfully none of them ever had any real appeal with the legions of working poor, working rural, working class that Trump has nor quite the reach with evangelicals and conservative catholics. In their time they represented best billionaires and corporate entities. They would still grab the votes of a lot of the above but they never lived up to any of the rhetoric they threw the way of their hoi polloi---so even if they got their votes they didn't get the enthusiasm that Trump does. Even with Trump there's a lot of smoke and mirrors but things like his rallies seem to have something of a circus atmosphere. The Hulk Hogan's fit right into that kind of shit---accentuate it even.

Expectations are that Biden is going to drop out over the weekend. Harris takes over---Whitmer and Newsom don't want to be VP.....potential VP candidates Beshear (Gov. KY), Kelly (Sen. AZ) or Shapiro (Gov. PA). It's a mess but another key factor rearing its head is that the billionaire donors have stopped giving and the money is drying up and that's last straw time for the likes of Pelosi, Schumer and Obama. Since Obama the democrats have forced presidential candidates on the public and it's coming back on them in a a bad way. This idea that Biden could do a second term and to make it happen they were going to forego primaries was terrible. It was a way for sure of hiding him from the public---(something they've been doing with Biden pretty much since 2019) but it turned into an unmitigated disaster. It really is odd for me that people seen as truth tellers such as Sanders and AOC have been sticking behind this guy who is obviously struggling both physically and mentally. This was an Emperor has no clothes moment. Biden should not even have run again.

>86 lriley: A Harris-Buttigieg ticket?

Seth Abramson @SethAbramson | 6:10 PM · Jul 18, 2024 {X}:
“An unreadable nonsense machine.” —Elon Musk
New York Times-bestselling journalist and lawyer.

In the last 5 minutes, the support for a Harris-Buttigieg ticket on this feed has been astounding. A veritable flood of enthusiasm. Didn’t expect it.

If in fact the loss of support from Obama, Pelosi, Schumer, and Jeffries causes President Biden to step back, is this the ticket?

>87 margd: It would be much preferable. Harris is one of the more unlikeable people too but she can talk---chew gum. Still think on her feet. Maybe even she won't be such a pushover for Netanyahu. There was a guy who was liberal/left who use to post all the time in Pro and Con 10/12 years ago. He doesn't come here anymore and we'd never really got along that great but I said something one day about Harris back when she was still running with the others for POTUS......I don't remember what but it kind of triggered him. Best I remember now he'd been a waiter in a swanky San Francisco restaurant and had a very demeaning experience with Harris who came in with a coterie of people including if I remember right the S. F. Mayor Willie Brown. It's all anecdotal and FWIW people who become world leaders much more often than not are not IMO very good people to begin with.

Yeah, Harris + some white dude seems fine. The main thing for me is, let's not take anyone out of the Senate unless we have a clear and unbreakable plan to keep that seat on the American side. No matter how appealing someone like Warnock might be as a candidate, giving up the Senate doesn't seem like a good idea. Particularly since there's a chance that God actually does love America, and Thomas and Alito will go to live on a farm - peacefully, in their sleep, of natural causes - in the next term, and we'll need to replace them with American judges.

>88 lriley: The best leaders can cover it up, but I don't think any of them are self-effacing sweethearts. You have to have high self-regard and a thick skin to deal with the nastiness served at you on a regular basis. The wives, too. (Husbands, also no doubt, but I haven't met too many of them.)

>89 kiparsky: Harris & Buttigieg are kind of an interesting proposition, aren't they? Different regions: California & Midwest. Buttigieg may be a white dude, but between them a challenge to shake any bigots out of the party. Both well spoken: either one of them would trounce R counterpart in any debate. She may have been challenged by Buttigieg earlier, but I don't think so now(?) As you say, doesn't vacate a D Senate seat. Both from Biden Admin, so some promise of continuation of policies. (Re climate & Gaza, let us pray.) A man, but Buttigieg doesn't tower over her. Both youngish and vital. Election could become interesting?
_______________________________
ETA:
Ryan K Harrison, MD @rkh_md | 7:01 PM · Jul 18, 2024:

Not sure I want the ticket to change, but I know one thing, I’d get me a big bucket of popcorn to watch Buttigieg wipe the floor with JD Vance’s dignity, and then clean off the camera lenses for completeness ….

Photo Buttigieg & Harris (https://x.com/rkh_md/status/1814072942566703599/photo/1)
________________________________
ETA:
Eric Levitz {Vox} @EricLevitz | 10:46 PM · Jul 18, 2024:

Kamala has her flaws. But I think Americans who haven't heard from a presidential candidate who isn't Trump or Biden for 8 years will be awestruck by the magisterial oratory of a replacement-level 50-something politician

>89 kiparsky: Agreed! Does JD Vance forfeit his seat no matter the outcome? One can wish…

>90 margd: I think that's a good outlook to have on these people. Whether you want to or end up voting for them.....they almost always have some serious flaws. We all know as well that when Trump feels he has power over someone he will grind them down if it means he can benefit from it. I think there are very few current politicians--maybe not even a handful who I'd want to hang around with at all. I know I've said this few times here but of all our Presidents I liked Jimmy Carter the best. Not really because of what he accomplished or didn't accomplish.....it's mostly because he left with grace and went back home to Plains Georgia to the same house he purchased in the early 60's and it's not nearly some kind of mansion (I think it was valued under $200 K several years ago). He never really tried to monetize his presidency......and here he was is as a 90+ year old guy volunteering as part of a group to put together homes for people who have are struggling and could use the help. There's a degree of humility with him that I haven't seen with the other President's in my lifetime and have rarely seen for greater part from our Senators or congresspeople either.

>92 2wonderY: If he loses, he stays in the Senate. So far, it looks like he's a wasted seat for the anti-Americans. He's done nothing with it, and unless the Rat Bastards come up with another McConnell to make use of the deadwood, there's no indication that he'll ever do anything at all there. So I'm happy to see him lose and stay where he is. It's hard to imagine a less effective senator, though of course he's not doing as much self-harm as someone like Pedo Gaetz or Maggie Green over in the House.

If he loses, the governor appoints a stand-in, and you get a special election in I suppose 2026 to fill the remainder of his term. The interesting thing there is that Ohio's only recently a Maga haven, and I don't think it's nearly as solidly treasonous as it's lately assumed to be. There are a lot of Americans there, and since Dobbs there's a real opening for a Democrat to take that seat. But of course, that opening is there in 2028 anyway. (so if you know anyone in Ohio who's interested in politics, this is a really good time for them to get involved. There's going to be a big squabble for position in that race, either starting in November if disaster strikes or in about two years if we're able to hold off the Rat Bastards, and locals right now have their best chance to put their thumb on that scale.)

Pity US voters their choice of leaders. Surely democracy is better than this? (Guardian)

What a shambles! What a shame! With less than four months to go, America’s presidential race, global democracy’s showpiece event, has boiled down to a choice between a crook, a codger, a cheerleader and a charlatan. Four folks who, for varying reasons, are barely fit. Voters deserve better. Or perhaps, by applauding and rewarding bad behaviour, they really don’t. Friends and allies look on aghast. Chinese and Russian online election trolls sneer with delight. No worries, guys. The US is busy screwing itself...

>95 John5918: FWIW Trump has reshaped the Republican Party. Back in 2015/16 the establishment thereof went to lengths to get rid of him but between then and now you got behind him, went into obscurity and/ or left or got lost......and I'm not sure that a lot of those opposed still haven't figured it out. The Bush's, Cheney's, Romney's, McConnell's all the old leadership nobody in that party really cares about them. What they do or think carries no weight. Their kind or reasonableness for whatever that was ever worth is not going to return. So the likes of Rubio, Cruz and Graham plus plenty of others have all bent the knee. Trump stole most of their base and he took a little from the middle and across the aisle too. That's the MAGA party. He could rename it that if he wanted to and none of his supporters would give a damn.

An issue for the Democrats....they think like in days of old that their left will follow them everywhere no matter how much they shit on them and that they should be able to capture a larger % of the undecideds and a small % of disaffected republicans but the undecideds now are looking at a shuffling old man who can't think or talk on his feet anymore and they don't want to vote for him and Trump's base is as solid as concrete.

It's cute this theory of voting for the lesser evil. Why democrats continue to put up the worst possible candidates?---tell their voters there is no choice but to vote for them or the world is going to end. There was no good reason ever they had to lock this away for Biden before it even started. If anyone cares to look back Biden was described as in a bunker back in 15/16. His campaign was the worst of all the democratic wannabes. He hardly campaigned. He couldn't raise money. No one showed up at the very few rallies he had. Obama and Clyburn fixed things so his challengers would drop away so that Sanders wouldn't win and Bernie accepted that with his usual and very silly gruff grace and here we are now 4 years down the road.

I'm probably one of the older people that post here. I don't know if a lot of younger people really understand the various avenues that people can go down as they age. If you know someone in a nursing home you should go visit them and take a look around. Go out with your parents or grandparents and meet up once in a while with their real friends. You'll get to see there is shit that happens as people age. Not everyone goes the same way and some things are way more debilitating than others and a person can disappear just as easily mentally as they can physically.....very often they'll do both the older they get. For some their final years are lived in a mental fog to completely mentally gone. If Biden has Parkinson's that's the road he's traveling and there's not nothing (or at least not right now) that anyone can do about it. Earlier stages he'll make reappearances now and again but as it develops those reappearances will be less frequent.

MAUREEN DOWD ~

Let It Go, Joe!

Democrats should be alarmed thinking about Donald Trump with a Republican Senate promoting Judge Aileen Cannon to the Supreme Court!

>97 Molly3028: Doubt Republicans would increase the number of justices. So as for Cannon someone would have to leave (Thomas? my guess is he's going to hang on) and it's already a farce. She'd be just another clown for the circus.

https://www.mediaite.com/news/breaking-joe-biden-announces-his-withdrawal-from-t...
BREAKING: Joe Biden Announces His Withdrawal from the 2024 Presidential Race

“While it has been my intention to seek reelection, I believe it is in the best interest of my party and my country for me to stand down and focus solely on fulfilling my duties as president for the remainder of my term,” Biden wrote.

>98 lriley:

His billionaire friend would make Thomas a financial deal to leave that he couldn't refuse.

>99 Molly3028: Well, that's a relief.
Now what?

>100 Molly3028: They're all too greedy to know when to stop.

The odds I think are pretty stacked against the dems at this point winning back the presidency though chances just improved. The benefit from Biden's dropping out is that if nothing else it shores up things for the party for the better down ballot. Some house democrat incumbents particularly were super concerned they'd be flipped in November if Biden were the nominee. This should stop at least a lot of that. It also should keep the Senate close. Can almost guarantee that West Virginia is going to flip to the Republicans but that might be about it at which point I believe if Trump wins Vance (like Harris has sometimes been) is going to be the decider on tie votes unless some Republican Senator wants to take over Manchin's or Sinema's role of fucking things up. Rand Paul can be touchy for instance on handouts to foreign govt.'s. Romney or Murkowski are potential thorns too.

I'm kind of expecting Republicans to force McConnell out too.

>103 lriley: Not much effort required to force the Tortoise out - he's already announced his retirement from the leadership position and, if I remember right, that this is his last term.

I'm not sure this is going to change much down-ballot, honestly. The coat-tail theory rests on the idea that people are sitting out the election, but they come out to vote for a charismatic presidential candidate. It's hard to see how any of that applies this year. I don't know that there's a lot of people who were planning on sitting out the election, and if they were, how any potential democrat candidate will change that for them. If anything, you'll see the same Russian propaganda machine that brought you "Biden hates Palestine" working on whoever steps up - remember "Harris is a cop"? That's going to come back, and some people will buy it because people on the left are just as susceptible to brainwashing as people on the right. If Harris isn't the candidate, they'll come up with another appealing lie for the naive left, and again, some people will buy it. Dunno how many, or if it'll be enough to make a difference in the election, but they're already lining up their shots for every potential candidate, you can be sure of that.

The motivating issue this year will not be any candidate, it's already on the stage and it's abortion. This is why Trump is doing the fastest reverse ferret in history, suddenly he's all for abortion, everyone should have two or three a day, etc., and you can already see his misogynist vote starting to slip away. Look for lots of strategic ambiguity, lots of code words, and lots of weaseling from his people while they try to hold on to the anti-woman voters and not lose enough women to cost him the election. So it's up to Democrats to make use of that, and fortunately most of them are not idiots and they're already doing it.

The irony is pretty thick, of course: if we pull it out and re-defeat the Twat, it'll be Alito who handed us the tool that does it. We may have to throw him a parade come November.

One thing I think needs to be said. Barack Obama needs to stop anointing candidates. Better to let the voters really decide than put his thumb on the scale. The rift between him and Biden started in 2016 when it was decided right off that it was Hilary's turn......and Biden who'd been his VP wanted to run. By the time Sanders got in the race he was already way behind in delegates. Hilary has a lot of popularity with democratic voters and elites but she's a love or hate candidate even within her own party and almost toxic to much of the left of the Democratic Party. Outside of democrats she's pretty much universally hated. She was a terrible choice and Biden in 2020 was just as bad. He benefitted from Trump's toxicity. Again Obama weighed in by getting other candidates to drop out when Sanders started winning primaries. Barack's got some large responsibility for both Clinton and Biden's presidential runs and it's been speculated much that even though he remained quiet about Biden's remaining in or dropping out he was working behind the scenes to get him to leave......so that in the last 3 presidential elections his thumbprint is pretty much all over everything and we're talking about finding someone who can beat Trump....it shouldn't be that hard. Barack's not good at king making. He needs to stop.

🚨 HUGE spike in awareness and rejection of Project2025

JUNE 24, 2024: -9 points
FAV: 10%
UNFAV: 19%

JULY 14, 2024: -32 points
FAV: 11%
UNFAV: 43%

Bar graph, groups, favorable to Project 2025 (https://x.com/JesseFFerguson/status/1815717285782331529/photo/1)

- Jesse Ferguson @JesseFFerguson | 7:55 AM · Jul 23, 2024 {X}
Dem Strategist for causes, campaigns & candidates. Prev. Dep Press Sec. Clinton '16, DCCC IE Dir., DCCC Dep ED/CommDir. W&M'03

>105 lriley:
One thing I think needs to be said. Barack Obama needs to stop anointing candidates. Better to let the voters really decide than put his thumb on the scale. The rift between him and Biden started in 2016 when it was decided right off that it was Hilary's turn......and Biden who'd been his VP wanted to run.

Biden didn't have the heart to run a campaign after Beau's death.

The 2024 election centers around long-held grievances ~

MAGA control grievances ~ anti-democratic (vote our way or expect a civil war)

and

female citizenship grievances ~ pro-democracy (re-establish reproductive rights/end glass-ceiling barriers)

Haley sends cease-and-desist to ‘Haley Voters for Harris’ group

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4789411-nikki-haley-cease-and-desist-haley...

https://www.mediaite.com/tv/hes-dragging-trump-down-cnns-data-guru-reveals-bruta...
‘He’s Dragging Trump Down’: CNN’s Data Guru Reveals BRUTAL Polling Data for JD Vance

“Frankly, I don’t really understand the pick,” Enten told Erin Burnett on Tuesday’s OutFront. “And apparently, neither do the American voters because we take a look at the net favorable rating for JD Vance. That’s the favorable minus unfavorable. It’s in negative net territory. Look at that. Negative six points.”

Enten says he looked at every election since 1980 and could not find another veep selection with a net negative rating.