NFL Picks

It is the Cincinnati Bengals — not the Carolina Panthers — who are winless heading into this Week 4 contest at Bank of America Stadium. Despite that, I have a lot more faith in the Bengals. They were terrible in Week 1 against the New England Patriots, but they probably should have knocked off the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 2 and they lost a shootout to Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders on Monday night. This team is too talented to be winless, and it probably won’t be after Sunday. Coming back from a 2023 wrist injury, Joe Burrow looked by far the best he has this season in last Monday’s high-scoring affair with Washington (29-for-38, 324 yards, 3 touchdowns, no interceptions).

The Panthers played a lot better with Andy Dalton under center last weekend than they did with Bryce Young in the first 2 games, but I will have to see a much larger sample size than 1 outing to be convinced. Moreover, wide receiver Adam Thielen is now on injured reserve. That is a rough blow for a squad that was already without a whole lot of dangerous skill-position players. Carolina’s victory over the Las Vegas Raiders may have proven that it isn’t the worst team in the entire NFL, but it’s still close. I would only play this confidently at a field goal or less, but you just can’t trust Carolina against a respectable opponent (at least one that is a lot more respectable than its 0-3 record suggests).

Bengals vs Panthers prediction: Bengals -4.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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This is simply too big of a total for me to play the Over in a game involving the Panthers. Andy Dalton was very good against the Raiders, but that was only his second full game dating back to the start of the 2023 campaign. Now he faces a Cincinnati defense that was pretty solid the first 2 weeks before getting victimized by Jayden Daniels. With Thielen sidelined, I don’t expect Carolina to put up a huge number on Sunday. It also feels like the home team should feature a steady diet of Chuba Hubbard, who is averaging 5.2 yards per carry so far this year. If that is the case, the clock should move and the game will therefore be shortened. The Bengals’ offense heated up in Week 3, but the Commanders’ defense is terrible. Cincinnati was completely inept against a decent New England defense in the series opener and also did not do a whole lot against Kansas City. I’m leaning toward the Under.

Bengals vs Panthers prediction: Under 48.5 (-112) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Can Aaron Rodgers and the New York Jets keep the good vibes rolling here in Week 4? After an opening loss to the 49ers, They’ve bounced back with big wins over the Titans and Patriots the last 2 weeks. Denver is also coming off of a victory, one that few people saw coming as they went on the road and cleaned the clock of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who had looked great up until that point. It was nice to see Bo Nix having his first taste of pro success after a rough first couple of games in the NFL, but I think this one is going to look a lot more like his first 2 than his game against Tampa.

The Buccaneers had some injuries on defense in that one, and it was a classic letdown spot for the Bucs following their statement win over Detroit. Let’s not forget that Denver got embarrassed at home by the Steelers in Week 2 and they looked overmatched against the Seahawks in Week 1. Since they played on Thursday night last week, the Jets are coming into this one with a decided rest advantage. That’s huge when you have a 40-year-old quarterback like New York does, and Rodgers looked as mobile as he ever has in his career last week even though he’s coming off an Achilles tear. He looked pretty spry on several scrambles that have me feeling just fine about his mobility moving forward.

The Jets demolished New England last week, and Rodgers completed 77 % of his passes for over 8 yards per attempt against a solid Patriots defense on a short week. Clearly, the old man’s still got it. Bo Nix is still Denver’s leading rusher, which speaks more to their complete lack of a ground game than it does Nix’s ability as an athlete. And he just doesn’t have it as a passer yet, nor do the Broncos have the right weapons around him. Even after a supposed big step forward against Tampa Bay, Nix is still just averaging 5.3 yards per attempt with zero touchdowns and 4 interceptions on the year. I’ll take the Jets and their mean defense to ensure New York wins this comfortably.

Broncos vs Jets prediction: Jets -7.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Under also makes a lot of sense in this spot. Aaron Rodgers understandably got most of the attention during New York’s win over New England last week, but the team’s defense was just as good. Robert Saleh’s unit held the Patriots to just 3 points, and that was right after they had embarrassed Will Levis and the Titans the week before. Bo Nix looked terrible in his first couple of weeks, and just because he wasn’t as bad last week against Tampa doesn’t mean we should expect much from him here. I wasn’t nearly as impressed with his performance against the Bucs as many seem to be, and a lot of his completions were on passes he was lucky to get away with. The week before last, Denver scored just 6 points at home against Pittsburgh.

Denver’s defense on the other hand has quietly been playing really well under Vance Joseph, and they just sacked Baker Mayfield 7 times last week while holding him to 163 yards. Plus, the Jets are going to be without starting right tackle Morgan Moses here, which is a big blow to their offensive line. Even in New York’s relative offensive explosion last week, they still didn’t top 24 points.

Broncos vs Jets pick: Under 39.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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We have a crucial AFC South matchup on our hands with our Jaguars vs Texans prediction and both teams are out to bounce back from crushing defeats in Week 3. The Texans were decimated 34-7 by the Vikings on Sunday before the Jaguars were humiliated 47-10 by the Bills. Having been 4.5-point underdogs on Monday morning, that annihilation in Buffalo has now pushed Jacksonville out by another 2 points and I believe it’s worth jumping on them now that public perception is so low.

I won’t sugarcoat it — the Jags looked awful in that game in Buffalo. Trevor Lawrence has completed barely 50% of his passes this season while the defense was schooled by Josh Allen. However, I’m expecting this team to come out firing in a big divisional game where they know that a win here will suddenly put them 1 win out of first place in the AFC South. This defense has what it takes to slow down opposing offenses, as we saw them do against the Dolphins and Browns, and has allowed the 8th-fewest yards per carry.

As for the Texans, we know this team is loaded with talent but I certainly wouldn’t be rushing to back them as favorites by a touchdown against a divisional rival after such a big defeat to the Vikings. And even before that loss, Houston had relied on narrow victories to get past the Colts and Bears. CJ Stroud has yet to take it to high gear and repeat last season’s heroics, while the absence of Joe Mixon last week led to the Texans having just 38 rushing yards. While the Jags should be motivated to bounce back, I believe Houston will feel under pressure to deliver on their lofty expectations, after a fairly underwhelming start to the season. For my Jaguars vs Texans best bet I’m going with Jacksonville to keep it within a touchdown — and can even see them defying the odds and winning this outright.

Jaguars vs Texans prediction: Jaguars +7 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to +6.

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For my second Jaguars vs Texans prediction, I believe the Over has some value. First off, both defenses just got walloped for 47 and 34 points, highlighting that they are at least vulnerable. And with that in mind, despite lackluster starts there is no reason why Trevor Lawrence and CJ Stroud can’t contest a shootout given their ability and the weapons at their disposal. Lawrence has had a tough time finding his groove, but he still has delivered great throws to Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis while building good chemistry with Brian Thomas Jr. As for Stroud, his receiving trio of Stefon Diggs, Tank Dell and Nico Collins continues to wreak havoc upon opposing secondaries. The Jags average the 4th-most yards per carry so far this season behind Travis Etienne, while the potential return of Joe Mixon would give Houston a major boost on the ground. With both teams motivated to put on a show, I can see a shootout developing here and lean toward the Over as a result.

Jaguars vs Texans prediction: Over 45 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Despite missing their 2 best receivers and half their offensive line, the Rams defied the odds and pulled off a huge comeback to stun the 49ers at home. Now, Matthew Stafford and his LA teammates head to Chicago with a bit of swagger about them as they look to take down the Bears. While Tutu Atwell stepped up in the absence of Copper Kupp and Puka Nacua, it was running back Kyren Williams who stole the show — putting up 89 yards on the ground while scoring 3 total touchdowns. The Bears rank middle of the pack against the run, but what has been especially alarming for Chicago so far has been its offense.

Top draft pick Caleb Williams finally let loose, as he posted 363 passing yards and 2 touchdowns from a mammoth 52 attempts — but he is still struggling to bring it all together. That effort included 2 interceptions and Chicago currently averages just 5.3 passing yards per attempt, which is the 3rd-fewest in the league. Granted, the Rams are currently allowing the most passing yards per attempt in the NFL (9.8), so this could be an opportunity for Williams to shine. But it’s worth noting that they have had to contend with the Lions, Cardinals and 49ers so far — all teams with potent weapons in the passing game. I’m expecting LA to have much more success in containing Williams and believe head coach Sean McVay can once again find a way to get a tune out of this depleted offense. For my Rams vs Bears best bet, I’m taking Los Angeles to at least keep it within a field goal.

Rams vs Bears prediction: Rams +3 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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For my game total Rams vs Bears prediction, I’m leaning toward the Under. As noted in my point spread writeup, I have serious doubts still over Caleb Williams’ ability and expect the Rams to have more success on defense against a “weaker” quarterback than they have previously faced. The Bears have scored the 4th-fewest points in the NFC, and averaging just 17.6 per game, and even a chunk of those can be attributed to the defense’s effort against the Titans. Their run game has been a mess, too, with D’Andre Swift posting a putrid 68 yards from 37 attempts on the ground across their 3 games. On the Rams’ side, while Matthew Stafford and Kyren Williams proved they can keep the chains moving, they are still severely depleted with the absence of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. Plus, this Chicago defense has been solid — keeping all opponents to 21 points or fewer so far and allowing the 7th-fewest passing yards per attempt. This game has all the makings of a defensive battle and will side with the Under; I expect points to come at a premium.

Rams vs Bears pick: Under 41 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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One of the more consequential games of this Week 4 slate comes in the NFC North, as the Green Bay Packers will host the surprisingly undefeated Minnesota Vikings in a matchup that could go a long way into determining NFC playoff positioning down the road. While the Vikings have certainly been a great story this season, I’m not quite sure that makes them a great team just yet. Sam Darnold has impressed me (and almost everyone else) to this point in the season, and the Minnesota offense appears to be just fine even without the services of Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson (7th in EPA per play, 7th in success rate). Defensively, Brian Flores has just put on back-to-back clinics against the high-powered offenses of San Francisco and Houston, adding an element to this Vikings team that we just haven’t seen over the last couple of seasons. With that said, this is a great time to sell high on Minnesota in a very difficult divisional matchup.

The biggest news of the week in the NFC is that Jordan Love is expected to return under center for the Packers, and that instantly makes this Green Bay offense one of the best in football. Love has not only flourished into becoming one of the better quarterbacks in the league in head coach Matt LaFleur’s system, but he has also seen plenty of success against Flores of late, including putting up over 250 yards and 3 touchdowns in the most recent meeting between these teams a season ago. On the other side of the ball, there’s also the matter of the Packers’ defense under new defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley, who has instantly improved on a unit that was one of the worst in football last season. Darnold will have to deal with an aggressive defensive front that isn’t afraid to bring pressure, as shown in an effort against Tennessee where it racked up a whopping 8 sacks in Week 3. It wouldn’t shock me at all if Green Bay’s defense rattles Darnold a bit, especially since he has historically not fared well under pressure. Overall, Green Bay is in a great position to knock off Minnesota and bring expectations back to reality just a bit for this Vikings team.

Vikings vs Packers prediction: Packers -2.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number. 

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I’ve extolled the virtues of both of these playcallers in the past, and we should see a clear path to the Over in this one. We know that Kevin O’Connell is making things easy for Sam Darnold and this offense, and the Vikings should be able to see success through the air against a Packers defense that is 23rd in EPA per pass (Sumer Sports). The same can be said for this Green Bay passing offense, which ranks 5th in EPA per pass despite only having its starting quarterback available for 1 of its 3 games to this point. The Vikings’ defense under Flores is one that likes to blitz consistently, but Jordan Love has shown to be elite against pressure in his young career, racking up 12 touchdowns against the blitz a season ago. All signs point to both teams being able to reach 20+ points, so let’s take the Over in this NFC North showdown on Sunday.

Vikings vs Packers prediction: Over 43.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Games are never make or break in Week 4 of a season, but it doesn’t get much bigger in terms of division ramifications than New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons in the NFC South — which has all the makings of being a 3-team fight all the way (also with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers). Both teams head into Sunday’s showdown at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta coming off losses, so they will be eager to get back in the win column.

I have more faith in the Falcons, especially since they are playing at home — where they get to stay for 3 weeks in a row. They have trended in the right direction since an opening loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers, winning at the Philadelphia Eagles before taking the Kansas City Chiefs down to the wire. Kirk Cousins has been much better over the past 2 contests than he was against Pittsburgh as he continues his comeback from a 2023 Achilles’ tear. It’s only a matter of time before this talented offense stocked with first-round draft picks really starts clicking, and the defense has played well enough to have won all of the first 3 games.

New Orleans is going in the other direction following Week 3. The offense looked incredible in the first 2 outings but got bottled up by Philadelphia last week in a 15-12 setback. That Derek Carr (14 for 25, 142 yards, 1 touchdown, 1 interception) was more along the lines of the real Derek Carr than the version we saw against the Panthers and Cowboys. Carolina’s defense isn’t very good and Dallas’ defense is terrible. Atlanta’s unit should resemble the one Carr ran into against Philly to a much greater extent. This should be another close one between arch-rivals, but I think expect Atlanta to prevail and cover this small spread.

Saints vs Falcons prediction: Falcons -1.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -2.5 (+102).

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New Orleans’ offense took a step back last Sunday and Atlanta’s has not yet fully hit its stride with a quarterback on the comeback trail and a new offensive coordinator in Zac Robinson. As such, this could be a relatively low-scoring dogfight. The bottom line is that the Falcons are in much better shape defensively than offensively, especially now that starting center Drew Dalman is on injured reserve and right guard Kaleb McGary is questionable. They boast two of the best safeties in football with Jessie Bates III and Justin Simmons, plus Matthew Judon’s presence has bolstered the pass rush. I don’t think either Derek Carr or Kirk Cousins is going to be particularly comfortable in this matchup. Last year’s head-to-head result in Atlanta was a 24-15 decision in favor of the home team. Something similar could be in store. Let’s go with the under.

Saints vs Falcons prediction: Under 42.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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I’ve been waiting to get a full 3 points with the Buccaneers in this spot, but given that the market appears to be shading toward Tampa Bay at the time of writing, I’d still recommend grabbing the 2.5 points with the home team in this NFC Wild Card rematch from a season ago. Typically I’d look to lean into the playoff revenge angle and lay it with the Eagles after Philadelphia was embarrassed in Tampa Bay last January, but this Eagles team has far too many injury concerns for me to trust them as road favorites against a pretty decent opponent.

Philadelphia was able to get past New Orleans in a must-win game a week ago, even with some egregious coaching errors by Nick Sirianni. However, the win didn’t come without a price after DeVonta Smith and Darius Slay both exited the game with injuries that could sideline them for this week’s matchup. Without Smith and A.J. Brown at the receiver position, it’s hard for me to have trust in an Eagles offense that won’t have any proven weapons on the field to catch passes besides Dallas Goedert at tight end. Ordinarily, I’d see the Eagles feasting on a depleted Buccaneers secondary in this game, but I can’t count on that and I also can’t count on Sirianni not to make a grave clock management error in a crucial moment.

On the other side, this Tampa Bay offense hasn’t been able to generate much on the ground (25th in EPA per rush), but the Buccaneers are going up against an Eagles secondary that doesn’t have the personnel to match up against the likes of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. This is only a lean from me now that it’s under a field goal, but I still have to take Tampa +2.5 as my Eagles vs Bucs pick for this contest.

Eagles vs Buccaneers prediction: Bucs +2.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +2.

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This is a game where I actually think the Buccaneers can come out on top while still playing within a game script that the Eagles are comfortable with. Tampa Bay’s defense is 26th in opponent yards per rush, so I have little doubt that the Eagles will look to lean on their stout offensive line and the excellence of Saquon Barkley in the ground game, especially given the injury situation with Philadelphia’s wide receivers. On the other side, the Bucs are a very poor rushing team that’ll get the chance to break out against an Eagles defense that is 30th in opponent EPA per rush to this point in the season. I expect Philadelphia to bracket one of Mike Evans or Chris Godwin to make life harder on Baker Mayfield in what appears to be a favorable matchup on paper. If the Eagles can keep the Bucs’ offense off the field, it won’t matter all that much if Tampa Bay delivers some explosive plays in the passing game. This is a game that should be played in the low 20s, so let’s target the Under at the current number.

Eagles vs Buccaneers prediction: Under 44.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 44.

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The undefeated Pittsburgh Steelers will head to Indianapolis this week for a Week 4 matchup with the Colts, and I fully expect Mike Tomlin’s men to continue their undefeated run. The Colts enter this matchup with a 1-2 record after they picked up their first win last Sunday against the Bears, 21-16. They tallied 150 rushing yards in that one, which appears to be the only way they’ll win football games this year because QB Anthony Richardson is completing just 49.3% of his passes to go with 3 TDs and 6 INTs. Although he’s an absolute specimen of arm power, the accuracy hasn’t been there, and he will likely struggle against a Pittsburgh defense that’s giving up just 157.7 passing yards per contest (5th in the NFL) while recording 4 interceptions.

Pittsburgh picked up their first home win of the season after starting 2-0 on the road, as they suffocated a Chargers offense that had previously had their way via the run game. The Chargers had 176 and 219 rushing yards in their first 2 wins but managed to record just 61 yards on the ground in Pittsburgh. In my best bet last week, I discussed how Pittsburgh would take away the ground game from the Chargers, and they did exactly that. I expect a similar story in Indianapolis, as the Colts average 131.3 rushing yards per contest (11th in the NFL), but they’re facing a Steelers defense allowing just 71.3 rushing yards on average (T-2nd in the NFL).

The Steelers have a 2-game lead in the AFC North through 3 weeks, and I expect them to continue to put pressure on the Bengals, Browns and Ravens, who have all had slow starts to the year. Additionally, this Colts defense could be without 2 starters on defense, as DE Tyquan Lewis and CB Kenny Moore II did not participate in Wednesday’s practice. RT Braden Smith also has a questionable tag for Sunday, and if he cannot play, Indy’s ground game will likely suffer. Overall, this feels like a game that could get ugly early, which tends to play in Pittsburgh’s favor, and I expect them to win and cover the 1.5-point spread, as they’ve now won by 2+ points in 22 regular season games.

Steelers vs Colts prediction: Steelers -1.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable down to -2.5.

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The second of my Steelers vs Colts predictions goes hand-in-hand with the first, as I expect this game to be an ugly, low-scoring affair. The Steelers’ defense has looked like the best unit in the NFL through 3 weeks, as they haven’t given up more than 10 points in a single contest. The biggest concern I have around this unit is Alex Highsmith, as he suffered a groin injury during the first half of their Week 3 win and did not practice on Wednesday. Highsmith and TJ Watt have been one of the best edge rush duos so far this NFL season, and it would dampen the strength of this front seven if they were to lose him for an extended period. Although his status is worth monitoring, this defense should still be able to stack the box against a Colts offense that averages just 184.3 passing yards per game (24th in the NFL).

Pittsburgh is giving up just 8.7 points per game (1st in the NFL) while the Colts allow a respectful 20.3 points per contest (14th in the NFL). While neither team has had to go up against many Super Bowl contenders thus far, I expect these squads to be competitive throughout the entire regular season and make a push for a wild-card spot as we approach the postseason. Five of the Colts and Steelers’ six games have finished with fewer than 40 points, as Indy’s games ended with 56, 26 and 37 compared to Pittsburgh’s 28, 19 and 30-point totals. The Colts got into a shootout with the Houston Texans in their season opener, but I don’t expect that to happen in Indianapolis on Sunday. I’m backing the Under as the second of my Steelers vs Colts best bets in NFL Week 4.

Steelers vs Colts prediction: Under 40 (-110) available at the time of publishing, playable down to 38.5.

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The 49ers are severely banged up and it’s only Week 4. Last week, the 49ers were without Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle on offense. That left Brock Purdy with Jordan Mason, Jauan Jennings and Brandon Aiyuk, but it wasn’t enough. The Niners lost to the Rams, who have also been decimated by injuries since they were without Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. If the 49ers lost to a Rams team that was without their 2 best offensive weapons and own one of the worst defenses in the league, there is a serious problem in San Fran. The 49ers’ injury report only grew after their Week 3 loss as Brock Purdy has been listed with a back injury. The Niners are fortunate to have a full week to rest before their next game against the Patriots, but they still won’t be at full health. McCaffrey is out for the next few weeks, Deebo is still questionable and hasn’t practiced yet and Shanahan said he’s hopeful that Kittle can return to practice sometime this week. If Kittle, Deebo or Purdy miss Week 4, this spread will likely shrink from 10 to below a touchdown.

It’s starting to look like New England’s Week 1 win over the Bengals wasn’t all that impressive. That’s because the Patriots have lost both games since and Cincinnati is still looking for their first win. The Pats were embarrassed last week on Thursday Night Football as they lost 24-3 to Aaron Rodgers and the Jets. There weren’t a lot of positives to take away from the game considering Jacoby Brissett didn’t even reach 100 passing yards and was sacked 7 times. The defense also got beat up by Breece Hall on the ground and Garrett Wilson through the air, so the Patriots couldn’t get out of MetLife Stadium fast enough. However, the one advantage the Patriots have in this game is health. New England has very few injuries and should be able to stick to their game plan on Sunday. This spread is likely going to fluctuate a lot this week based on San Francisco’s injury news, so keep an eye on the latest reports as the game gets closer. But right now, the Patriots have value as 10-point underdogs.

Patriots vs 49ers prediction: Patriots +10 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The San Francisco defense has been really bad this season. They’ve given up 19, 23 and 27 points through 3 weeks. With that said, the Patriots offense has been even worse. New England managed just 3 points on 139 total yards in Week 3. I acknowledge that the Jets’ defense is better than San Francisco’s, but it’s not too hard to limit the Patriots’ offense. Jacoby Brissett is surrounded by young receivers with little to no experience in the league. He has Demario Douglas, Hunter Henry and Ja’Lynn Polk as the main receivers, and that trio isn’t scaring many teams. Plus, Rhamondre Stevenson is a decent back, but he’s not the type that will break off 30-yard runs or be a benefit in the passing game. He picks up a lot of short gains and shouldn’t be counted on to carry the offense.

This total is going to change based on San Francisco’s injury report throughout the week. At the time of writing, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle’s status are undetermined and we won’t know which way they’re leaning until Friday or Saturday. Plus, I’m expecting Purdy to play through his back injury, but he might not be at 100%. All of these factors point to a low-scoring output by the Niners offense against a respectable Patriots defense. It’s hard to imagine more than 15 points from the Patriots based on their recent performances, so I’m expecting a score of about 21-13 in favor of the home team.

Patriots vs 49ers prediction: Under 39.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 39.

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The Washington Commanders travel to the desert for a 4:05 pm ET kickoff against the Arizona Cardinals, and I absolutely love this spot for the home team. Arizona is coming off a tough 20-13 home defeat at the hands of the Detroit Lions, and I expect them to respond after recording their lowest point total by a wide margin this season. QB Kyler Murray has looked great through 3 games, as he has 635 passing yards, 5 TDs and 1 INT to go with 161 rushing yards on just 15 carries. Arizona never got their running game going this past weekend (77 yards), which was partly because they gave up on running the ball after going down 20-7 in the first half. However, I don’t expect them to struggle to move the ball this week, as Washington is giving up 377.3 total yards per contest this season (29th in the NFL).

The Commanders picked up an electric 38-33 road win last week against the Cincinnati Bengals on Monday Night Football, but I’m not putting as much stock into that victory as I would at the start of the year due to Cincy’s 0-3 start. Rookie QB Jayden Daniels has looked great through 3 weeks, but he’ll now be playing in the first short week of his young career, and I expect the Cardinals defense to take full advantage of the extra day of preparation. Additionally, Washington is pretty banged up, as starting RG Sam Cosmi, starting DE Clelin Ferrell and RB Austin Ekeler were all DNPs in Wednesday’s practice and will likely miss Sunday’s contest. On the other side, TE Trey McBride and DL Khyiris Tonga are in jeopardy of missing Sunday’s game, but Arizona is still in a better spot from a health perspective. 

Arizona is 10-5 at home against the NFC East since 2010, and I expect them to pick up their 11th win this Sunday. This line had the Cardinals as -5.5 favorites before the Commanders’ surprise victory in Cincinnati, and while I like what I’ve seen from Daniels thus far, this is a great buy-low and sell-high spot. Expect Washington’s rookie QB to struggle on a short week while dealing with traveling to a different time zone and back the Cardinals to cover the spread as the best bet from my Commanders vs Cardinals predictions. 

Commanders vs Cardinals pick: Cardinals -3 (-115) available at the time of publishing, playable down to -130.

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Another of my Commanders vs Cardinals best bets is for Sunday’s game to turn into a shootout. Neither defense has been strong this season, and both units could be missing a starter on the defensive line this Sunday. Arizona ranks in the middle of the NFL in passing (16th) and rushing yards (19th) allowed this year, while Washington gives up 255.7 passing (31st in the NFL) and 121.7 rushing yards per contest (17th in the NFL). The hosts have had to face 3 high-powered offenses in the Bills, Rams and Lions, but they specifically struggled in their 34-28 defeat to Buffalo, as they had no answer for Bills QB Josh Allen. While they’ve rebounded since that game, I don’t expect Arizona to hold the Commanders to fewer than 20 points, as Washington has 20, 21 and 38 points in their 3 games to start the season.

Not only is neither defense extremely strong, but both teams’ secondaries are suspect at best. I already mentioned how Washington gives up the 2nd-most passing yards in the NFL on average, but that number is even more glaring when you realize it’s come against the Buccaneers (22nd in passing), Giants (20th in passing) and Bengals (6th in passing). While the game against Cincinnati can be forgiven, it’s worth noting that the Bengals have been in losing situations every game this season and rank 28th in the league in average rushing yards. Now, the Commanders will have to deal with Kyler Murray, who can also beat them with his legs and will be the best dual-threat QB they’ve faced thus far.

The Cardinals’ defense has looked good at home the past 2 weeks, but containing Jayden Daniels will be much more difficult and similar to stopping Allen than Matthew Stafford or Jared Goff. These 2 teams have finished with 51+ points in 4 of their 6 regular season games this season, so I expect Daniels and the Commanders’ offense to keep this game relatively close, which should help push this game over the total.

Commanders vs Cardinals prediction: Over 50.5 (-108) available at the time of publishing, playable up to 51.

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Two struggling AFC teams will look to right their respective ships here as the Cleveland Browns get ready to take on the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 4. Both teams are coming off ugly losses, as the Browns fell as big favorites at home to the Giants while the same happened to the Raiders against the Panthers. Las Vegas’ loss was so bad that after the game head coach Antonio Pierce said some of his players made “business decisions” down the stretch, that would cause the team to make “business decisions” of their own. It’s pretty early in the season to hear that kind of talk from a head coach at a postgame presser. The vibes have already gone south for both teams pretty quickly, but at least Cleveland has more to be excited about on defense. Cleveland is only letting opposing quarterbacks complete 58.8% of their passes this year, which is the 4th-best mark in the league.

I’m pretty low on Deshaun Watson, but even he should be able to get something going here against the defense that just made Andy Dalton look like Patrick Mahomes. Dalton threw for 319 yards and 3 touchdowns against the barely-there Raiders defense last week, and Chuba Hubbard was able to slice them up and average 5.4 yards per rush out of the backfield. Las Vegas was getting a ton of praise from all corners of the media last week for their surprise win over the Ravens, which was clearly a fluke even at the time. They got outgained 383-260 in that game, and they were very fortunate to escape with a victory as they averaged 1.6 yards per carry on the ground and Gardner Minshew got sacked 5 times. Minshew will likely struggle against Jim Schwartz’s defense, and there’s no way I could lay points with a team that just got thumped by the Panthers. For my Browns vs Raiders best bet, I’m taking Cleveland with a ton of confidence.

Browns vs Raiders prediction: Browns +2 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +1.

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I am pretty low on this Raiders defense overall, but not low enough to take the over in a game involving Deshaun Watson and Gardner Minshew. Neither quarterback is starting-caliber right now, and Minshew’s coming off a game where he got benched late against the lowly Carolina Panthers. He is clearly on a short leash with Aidan O’Connell breathing down his neck, and I’m not expecting much here against a Cleveland defense that has still been giving opposing quarterbacks a tough time this year. Even in the Raiders’ one big offensive explosion this year against the Ravens, they still finished the day with just 260 yards of total offense.

As for Cleveland, Watson is circling the drain and he has yet to average more than 5.5 yards per attempt in a game this season. Last week against a Giants defense that is far from elite, he took 8 sacks, bringing his total for the year up to a whopping 16. He’s still looking for his first 200-yard game of the year, and neither team has any ground game to speak of to take some of the pressure off their struggling quarterback. Las Vegas is dead last in the league in both total rushing yards and yards per carry, while Cleveland has struggled to get their signature rushing attack going behind a shoddy offensive line and with Nick Chubb still sidelined. Points should be at a premium here.

Browns vs Raiders prediction: Under 37 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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You could make the argument that the Chiefs could be 0-3 instead of 3-0. In Week 1, they beat the Ravens only because Isaiah Likely’s big toe was out of bounds by a centimeter. If that touchdown would have stood, the game would have gone to overtime and the Chiefs could have lost. Fast forward to Week 2, and the Chiefs won because a pass interference call on the Bengals put Kansas City into field goal range with only a few seconds left for Harrison Butker to nail the game-winning kick as time expired. Next up was the Falcons in Week 3, and Kansas City walked away with the 22-17 win but with major help from the referees. It appeared that Kansas City committed pass interference in the end zone but no call was made and the Chiefs got yet another close win. In summary, the Chiefs are extremely lucky. With that said, I don’t expect a lot of luck against this new-and-improved Jim Harbaugh defense.

It’s not surprising that the Chargers’ defense improved dramatically with the addition of Harbaugh. The Chargers are 2-1 with wins over the Raiders and Panthers and a loss to the Steelers. Admittedly, the Chargers haven’t been tested much this season. It’s allowed Justin Herbert to have a pretty relaxing start to the year while JK Dobbins rushes 20+ times a game. That’s likely going to change on Sunday against the Chiefs and we’re going to see if the Chargers’ defense is truly that good or if it’s been the weak competition. I’m taking the risk that Los Angeles does indeed have a solid defense, and as long as Rashee Rice doesn’t take over the game, Patrick Mahomes won’t have much to work with. Travis Kelce has been nonexistent so far and Carson Steele isn’t a quality running back, which puts a lot of pressure on Mahomes’ shoulders to find Rice. It’s clear what’s needed to stop Kansas City, and I think Harbaugh will create a game plan to limit the Mahomes-Rice duo.

Chiefs vs Chargers best bet: Chargers +7.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +7.

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If the Chargers are going to stay competitive, it’s going to be through a low-scoring game and not a shootout. Los Angeles has been a cash cow for the under through the first 3 weeks of the season as their 3 games have totaled 32, 29, and 30 points. There are 2 reasons for their low-scoring games: firstly, the Chargers use a lot of clock on offense. JK Dobbins has been a busy man on the ground as he’s rushed for over 130 yards in 2 of the 3 games. His efficiency on the ground has kept the ball out of Justin Herbert’s hands. In fact, Herbert has yet to throw for 150 yards in a game. This playstyle eats up a lot of clock, regardless of whether they score or not.

The second reason is their defense. The Chargers have allowed the 6th-fewest rushing yards per game and the 10th-fewest passing yards per game which is a nod to Harbaugh’s immediate impact. Since the Chiefs have lost several playmakers on offense, it’s pretty obvious that Mahomes is going to target Rashee Rice the most. He’s become Mahomes’ new favorite target as Kelce hasn’t been a factor in the offense yet. Plus, the running back room between Carson Steele and Samaje Perine isn’t exactly a dangerous duo. I can see this game ending in a 17-13 win for the Chiefs.

Chiefs vs Chargers best bet: Under 40 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 39.5.

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The Baltimore Ravens are fresh off their first win of the season but it was mighty impressive. Entering Dallas as a mere 1-point favorite, Baltimore ran away with the game, literally and figuratively, from the opening kickoff, stacking up over 250 yards on the ground and over 450 total against a Dallas operation that was embarrassed the week prior. That’s not easy to do in any venue, let alone AT&T Stadium when the ‘Boys are motivated. It also wasn’t that surprising. Despite their 1-2 record, the Ravens are 5th in total DVOA rankings. And despite their mediocre defensive performances so far this season (allowing 26 ppg), they’re the #1 run-defense in the NFL (allowing just 2.8 yards per rush, 50 yards per game). Normally, one might think this is a major advantage when playing the Bills, who love to run James Cook and Josh Allen and anyone else who wants to take part. The issue is, we’re not sure how accurate the Ravens’ defensive metrics are in the run game, and we’re positive they’re less capable against the pass (7.5 yards per pass allowed, ranked 28th). Baltimore slowed down the Chiefs’ run-game, which was impressive. The Raiders, on the other hand, are the worst running team in the NFL, and Dallas was trailing all game and their run-game is terrible, too.

Insert the Buffalo Bills. In short, the Bills have done nothing to suggest they deserve an underdog spread in any way. In this Week 4 scenario, they could easily be the favorite. They’re the #1 team in DVOA, with the most explosive offense in the league through 3 games. No team is scoring more (37 ppg), and since the second half of Week 1, they’ve outscored opponents 104-31. Their offense has overshadowed a defense that’s only permitting 4.2 yards per play (2nd), 16 ppg (7th), and a 33.33% TD rate in the red zone (7th). This spread sits where it does because Baltimore is at home and coming off a seminal win, but we are not stepping in front of the Buffalo Bills. In what should be a raucous environment and extremely fun game to watch, give me Buffalo running away in the fourth quarter.

Bills vs Ravens prediction: Bills +2.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +1.5.

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The Ravens and Bills promise to put on an exciting show, each riding high after big wins in Week 3 and with 2 of the most electric quarterbacks in the game. Somehow, this total is still sitting under the key number of 47, which is really tough to understand. Do oddsmakers know something we don’t? Are both offenses due for regression? In both cases, we think not, and here’s why.

Firstly, the Bills match up very well against the Ravens’ defense. Everyone and their brother thought Buffalo would come out running the ball on Monday night, as they have often in 2 previous contests, but Josh Allen’s arm caught on fire right away. Showing true chemistry with his new group of receivers, Allen connected with 10 different catchers against a desperate Jacksonville defense, slicing and dicing their secondary all night. It eventually led to 47 points. The Ravens are one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL through 3 weeks, perhaps showing signs that they immediately miss Mike Macdonald, and they’ll have their hands full.

On the other end, we love what we saw from Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore offense in Dallas. Derrick Henry finally found his groove, rumbling for over 180 yards, and Lamar was unstoppable early, finding the end zone on 3 out of their first 5 drives. The momentum and dynamic ability of both quarterbacks, who are each easily the best players on the field, will quickly turn into a sub-competition of “who can do it better,” like we see all the time in these big matchups, and we love that we’re getting 46.5 here.

Bills vs Ravens prediction: Over 46.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 47.5.

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The undefeated Seattle Seahawks will clash with Detroit for the second time in 2 seasons, but they’re bringing a new coach with them. Like Dan Campbell’s imprint on the Lions’ organization, many believe Mike Macdonald’s new culture is already working in Seattle. We tend to agree. Although they haven’t faced a murderers’ row of opponents (Denver, New England and Miami), the Hawks look more refined with each passing Sunday. And it shows statistically, too. Seattle ranks 2nd in total DVOA, with impressive top-10 rankings in various categories on offense and defense. Needless to say, Detroit is a very tough venue for any opposing team, but the Seahawks proved last year that they’re up to the task. They match up well, with dynamic wide receivers that can attack the Lions’ secondary, a group that’s allowing a 67% completion percentage to enemy QBs, and a defense that’s forming into one of the stingiest units in the NFL. 

The Lions deserve all the hype they’re getting. Despite a slow start, we’re confident that Campbell’s team will begin to hum soon, but this doesn’t profile as the right spot. Detroit has been clumsy on offense, turning the ball over and failing to convert long drives into touchdowns. Part of the reason might be because no one’s taking Detroit lightly anymore, and by now everyone knows who Ben Johnson is. The Lions’ offensive coordinator is among the most praised in the NFL, but so far he’s been humbled more than he’d like to admit. The Rams and Cardinals both managed to keep games within one score, and Tampa Bay beat the Lions straight up at Ford Field, simply because they had a cleaner performance. 

There’s no denying how good the Lions are when all things are clicking, but they haven’t rounded into form just yet. Even Dan Campbell, who had to move out of the local area due to a stalking incident, is having a rough start to the season. Mike Macdonald has flourished in these high-profile spots before (he was defensive coordinator for the Ravens when they beat Seattle last season, 38-6), and we love what the new-look Seahawks are showing us already. Support is starting to pour in on the road team, and we agree.

Seahawks vs Lions prediction: Seahawks +3.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that nunber.

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Last year, the Seahawks traveled to Detroit early in the season and it was a barnburner– 67 points and over 800 combined yards in an overtime finish, with Seattle taking home a W. We project this game to look much different.

The Seahawks are becoming a defense-first operation, much like their heyday under Pete Carroll, but Mike Macdonald brings a new intensity. The polar opposite of Carroll, Macdonald is a hard-nosed, old-school style coach who made Baltimore one of the most feared defenses in the NFL over the last 2 seasons. So far, it’s worked in the Pacific Northwest, too. Seattle has only allowed 14.3 ppg (4th) and 248.7 yards per game (2nd), with a league-best 3.9 yards per play. It’s worth noting that this rugged resistance came against the Broncos with a rookie QB, the Patriots’ less-than-capable offense, and in Week 3 against the Tua-less Dolphins. Still, their defense has looked better with each passing week, and Macdonald is a coach we trust.

Detroit, on the other hand, has needed to depend on its defense to win games. Their offense is still moving the ball (400 yards per game), but they’re sputtering in the red zone (38.46% TD rate, 26th) and Jared Goff has thrown 4 interceptions in 3 games. Seattle is not the program to rediscover rhythm against, and they have yet to face a defense as good as the Lions, either (17.7 ppg allowed, 9th). This will likely feel like a playoff battle.

Seahawks vs Lions prediction: Under 46.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 46.

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The Saints are in no man’s land, which is arguably the worst position you can be in as an NFL franchise. That’s what having Derek Carr gets you in today’s day and age, but at least New Orleans gets the benefit of having one of the easiest schedules in the league this season based on opponent win totals. However, one of the worst spots on this schedule comes in Week 5 when the Saints will head to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs on Monday Night Football, and we have our Saints vs Chiefs prediction.

This will not only be the second straight road game for New Orleans, but the Saints will also be playing their fourth straight game against a team projected to make the postseason. Throw in the fact that Kansas City has a bye week on deck, so there will be no overlook for Andy Reid’s team in this spot. Look for Patrick Mahomes and company to put on a show under the lights with the nation watching and for KC to prevail as our Saints vs Chiefs best bet.

Saints vs Chiefs prediction: Chiefs -7.5 (-110) available at time of publishing.

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The Detroit Lions absolutely should’ve beaten the Dallas on the road last season, but ultimately fell short thanks to some untimely officiating gaffes. This time around, the Lions are in prime position to take advantage of a Cowboys team that will be coming off a road game in prime time against Pittsburgh the previous week with the 49ers on deck, giving them value for our Lions vs Cowboys prediction.

Conversely, Detroit will have had a bye the previous week, giving offensive coordinator Ben Johnson plenty of time to cook up the perfect offensive game plan to attack this Dallas defense that I’m projecting to have some major issues in the secondary. As long as the Lions’ offensive line can keep Jared Goff protected for the majority of the contest, he should have no trouble spreading the ball around and having plenty of success in this dome environment. I’ll gladly take the Lions as underdogs for my Lions vs Cowboys pick, as the line could flip by game week.

Lions vs Cowboys prediction: Lions ML (+100) available at time of publishing.

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I’m not exactly a long-term believer in the Chicago Bears this season, but we’re getting a fantastic scheduling spot to back Caleb Williams and company against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 12 as our Vikings vs Bears prediction. The Vikings have one of the toughest schedules in football and they’ll head into this game after having already played two consecutive road games against Jacksonville and Tennessee. Now, Minnesota will head to Soldier Field for a matchup against a divisional foe in the cold after a couple of warmer weather encounters against much different offenses.

Despite my trepidation with the market love for the Bears heading into this season, Williams should be much more equipped to handle business as a favorite by this point in the campaign. Furthermore, the Vikings quarterback situation could be a real issue by this stage in the season, so I’ll grab the field goal with Chicago for my Vikings vs Bears pick before any possible movement down the road.

Vikings vs Bears prediction: Bears -3 (-110) available at time of publishing.

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This is a line that I could see being flipped by the time we get to late November, so for our 49ers vs Bills prediction, why not take a shot with one of the best home teams in football? Prior to this Sunday Night Football matchup in Week 13, the 49ers will have played a 5-game stretch consisting of the Chiefs, Cowboys, Buccaneers, Seahawks and Packers. Not only were 4 of those 5 teams in the playoffs last season, but the 49ers will have just played the Packers at Lambeau Field in a massive revenge spot for Green Bay the week prior to this contest. On the other hand, the Bills will be coming off a much-needed bye week after completing a pivotal 8-game stretch of their schedule.

There’s an argument to be made that the 49ers are overvalued in the market heading into this season, so this number could easily be Bills -2.5 by the time we hit kickoff. Yes, Buffalo can be frustrating in close games against lesser competition, but Josh Allen and company have typically risen to the occasion in these home spots (see: last season vs Miami & Dallas), so it’s hard not to back the Bills as home underdogs in this one for our 49ers vs Bills best bet.

49ers vs Bills prediction: Bills ML (+110) available at time of publishing.

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The Giants finally impressed this past Sunday. New York’s front seven had a breakout game, boasting 8 sacks against an injured Cleveland offensive line and an aggressive resistance held the Browns to a lowly 148 yards on their home turf. On the other side of the ball, Daniel Jones had a clean showing (24/34, 236 yards, 2 TDs), taking advantage of Brian Daboll’s masterful game plan where over 80% of Jones’ production came from the short-passing game. Malik Nabers, who’s already playing like a bonafide superstar, had another great performance, snagging 8 balls and catching both of Jones’ TD throws. New York’s run game wasn’t very effective early, but they still totaled 112 yards and dominated the time of possession. It was a good look for a Giants’ squad that seemed like a dumpster fire in their first 2 weeks.

Speaking of dumpster fires, the Dallas Cowboys took another big dip in our power ratings. Showing no ability to slow down Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, Mike Zimmer’s defense allowed a quick 21 points in the first half and 456 total yards by the game’s end. Remarkably, 274 of those permitted yards came on the ground. The Cowboys managed to stack up 211 yards and 19 points in 3 straight drives against a garbage-time Ravens’ defense, but it was too little, too late. Besides a big game from Jake Ferguson, the Cowboys looked disjointed, stunned and out-of-sorts. That’s not good on a short week and an upcoming 2-game road stretch.

Normally the Cowboys love these get-right spots against the Giants. Last year, Dallas beat New York 89-17 across the 2 meetings, and it’s been 6 straight losses for Big Blue against their rival. This one feels different, though. The Cowboys’ offensive line is starting to capitulate, and they’ll be facing a hyped-up Giants defense that pressured Deshaun Watson 19 times in Week 3. On the other side, Daboll is great at scheming short-field offense, which has been Dallas’ issue the last few weeks. The matchup and revenge factor scream Big Blue, so we’ll take a shot with the home underdog.

Cowboys vs Giants prediction: Giants +5.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 4.5.

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Is positive regression coming for Dallas’ defense? We think not. Getting crushed for 2 straight weeks would be tough for any program to handle, let alone with the prowess they expect in Texas. Mike Zimmer’s defense looks lost out there, and a pressurized locker room probably won’t help. They rank last in every rushing-defense category that matters, and they allow a 3rd-worst 29.7 ppg. Only the Rams and Panthers have been more pitiful. 

The Giants’ defense looked much improved in Week 3, but that was against an unsure Deshaun Watson and Cleveland’s limping offensive line. Still, without much of a run game to speak of (3.6 yards per carry, 3rd-worst), the Cowboys are #1 in the NFL in pass attempts per game (41), a metric that’s perhaps inflated since they’ve played from behind for 2 straight contests but also a pattern that’s unlikely to change. The saving grace of the Dallas offense remains with guys like CeeDee Lamb and Jake Ferguson, 2 of the best at their position in football, and Dak Prescott has been extremely comfortable at MetLife Stadium. The last time Dak lost there? December 11, 2016. In the 6 other games he’s played at the Meadowlands, Dak and his teammates averaged 31 ppg. The Cowboys won’t be happy after what went down in Week 3, and we like more points to be the result. Their defense should aid in that, too.

Cowboys vs Giants best bet: Over 45 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 46.

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Kendricks is the middle linebacker for the Cowboys in this new-look Mike Zimmer defense that’s been god-awful against the run. Zimmer brought Kendricks over from their time together in Minnesota and in the stat sheet, he put up numbers. He’s 12th overall in total tackles in the league, and has 2 sacks and 1 interception in 3 games. He’s hit this number in 2 of 3 games so far. The reason I’m on it this week at 8.5 is the mobile QB factor from New York. Kendricks posted a season-high 12 tackles last week against the Ravens and Lamar Jackson. 3 of his 12 came against Lamar in the run game. It’s a tactic teams will use to neutralize the Micah Parsons/DeMarcus Lawrence pass rush. These planned runs in addition to Dallas being the worst rush defense in the NFL should give Kendricks enough opportunities to cruise past this number. 1u

Last week’s loss to the Ravens was demoralizing for the Cowboys on the defensive side of the ball, but the passing game finally seemed to find a rhythm in the second half as Dallas mounted its comeback. Cowboys tight end Jake Ferguson was often the #2 option for Dak Prescott through the air as the season wound down last year, and after coming back from injury to record 95 yards on 6 receptions in Week 3, Ferguson should be in a great position to succeed down by the red zone this week. It certainly helps matters that the Giants have been a bad defense against tight ends for what feels like years now, as New York is 28th in defensive DVOA against the position. This is a line that keeps sinking at a few other outlets, so let’s play the best available number on Ferguson to find the end zone while we still can.

The Cowboys’ defense has been the object of ridicule over the past couple of weeks, and for good reason. Dallas is getting shredded by the run over the first 3 weeks, as opponents are averaging 5.4 yards per carry against the Cowboys while rushing for a total of 8 touchdowns in that span. Just last week, we saw the Ravens completely displace the Dallas front time and again en route to a 274-yard rushing performance in which Baltimore averaged well over 6 yards per carry. And while the Giants’ ground game is nowhere near as dynamic as what the Ravens have, Devin Singletary has been playing well, racking up 160 yards and 2 touchdowns on the ground over the past couple of weeks. If the Giants continue to use Singletary to take the pressure off Daniel Jones against this Dallas pass rush, then the top running back in this game could certainly find the end zone for the third consecutive contest. Let’s take Singletary to score at home.