Papaki, D.; Kokkos, N.; Sylaios, G. A Fuzzy Inference System for Seagrass Distribution Modeling in the Mediterranean Sea: A First Approach. Water2020, 12, 2949.
Papaki, D.; Kokkos, N.; Sylaios, G. A Fuzzy Inference System for Seagrass Distribution Modeling in the Mediterranean Sea: A First Approach. Water 2020, 12, 2949.
Papaki, D.; Kokkos, N.; Sylaios, G. A Fuzzy Inference System for Seagrass Distribution Modeling in the Mediterranean Sea: A First Approach. Water2020, 12, 2949.
Papaki, D.; Kokkos, N.; Sylaios, G. A Fuzzy Inference System for Seagrass Distribution Modeling in the Mediterranean Sea: A First Approach. Water 2020, 12, 2949.
Abstract
A Mamdani-type fuzzy-logic model has been developed to link Mediterranean seagrass abundance to the prevailing environmental conditions. Big Databases, as UNEP-WCMC (seagrass abundance), CMEMS and EMODnet (oceanographic/environmental) and human-impact parameters were utilized for this expert system. Model structure and input parameters were tested according to their capacity to accurately predict seagrass families at specific locations. The optimum FIS comprised of four input variables: water depth, sea surface temperature and nitrates and bottom chlorophyll-a concentration, exhibiting fair accuracy (76%). Results illustrated that Posidoniaceae prefers cool (16-18oC) and low chlorophyll-a presence (< 0.2 mg/m3); Zosteraceae favors cool (16-18oC) and mesotrophic waters (Chl-a > 0.2 mg/m3), but also slightly warmer (18-19.5 oC) with lower Chl-a levels (< 0.2 mg/m3); Cymodoceaceae lives from warm, oligotrophic (19.5-21.0oC and Chl-a < 0.3 mg/m3) to moderately warm mesotrophic sites (18-21.3oC and 0.3 – 0.4 mg/m3 Chl-a). Finally, Hydrocharitaceae thrives in warm Mediterranaean waters (21-23oC) of low chlorophyll-a content (< 0.25 mg/m3). Climate change scenarios showed that Posidoniaceae and Zosteraceae tolerate bathymetric changes, Posidoniaceae and Zosteraceae are mostly affected by sea temperature rise, while Hydrocharitaceae exhibits tolerance in higher sea temperature rise. This FIS could be used by national and regional policy-makers and public authorities.
Keywords
seagrass; fuzzy inference system; modeling; species abundance; Mediterranean Sea
Subject
Environmental and Earth Sciences, Oceanography
Copyright:
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.