Article
Version 1
Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed
Decline in Seasonal Snow During a Projected 20-Year Dry Spell
Version 1
: Received: 25 July 2022 / Approved: 26 July 2022 / Online: 26 July 2022 (10:42:21 CEST)
A peer-reviewed article of this Preprint also exists.
Hatchett, B.J.; Rhoades, A.M.; McEvoy, D.J. Decline in Seasonal Snow during a Projected 20-Year Dry Spell. Hydrology 2022, 9, 155. Hatchett, B.J.; Rhoades, A.M.; McEvoy, D.J. Decline in Seasonal Snow during a Projected 20-Year Dry Spell. Hydrology 2022, 9, 155.
Abstract
Snowpack loss in midlatitude mountains is ubiquitously projected by Earth system models, though the magnitudes, persistence and time horizons of decline vary. Using daily downscaled hydroclimate and snow projections we examine changes in snow seasonality across the U.S. Pacific Southwest region during a simulated severe 20-year dry spell in the 21st century (2051–2070) developed as part of the 4th California Climate Change Assessment to provide a "stress test" for water resources. Across California’s mountains, substantial declines (30–100% loss) in median peak annual snow water equivalent accompany changes in snow seasonality throughout the region compared to the historic period. We find 80% of historic seasonal snowpacks transition to ephemeral conditions. Subsetting empirical-statistical wildfire projections for California by snow seasonality transition regions indicates a two-to-four-fold increase in burned area, consistent with recent observations of high elevation wildfires following extended drought conditions. By analyzing six of the major California snow-fed river systems we demonstrate snowpack reductions and seasonality transitions result in concomitant declines in annual runoff (47-58% of historic values). The negative impacts to statewide water supply reliability by the projected dry spell will likely be magnified by changes in snowpack seasonality and increased wildfire activity.
Keywords
Climate Projection; Downscaling; Drought; Runoff; Snow; Wildfire
Subject
Environmental and Earth Sciences, Environmental Science
Copyright: This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Comments (0)
We encourage comments and feedback from a broad range of readers. See criteria for comments and our Diversity statement.
Leave a public commentSend a private comment to the author(s)
* All users must log in before leaving a comment