Version 1
: Received: 7 June 2023 / Approved: 7 June 2023 / Online: 7 June 2023 (11:40:49 CEST)
Version 2
: Received: 13 June 2023 / Approved: 14 June 2023 / Online: 14 June 2023 (04:12:55 CEST)
Xu, C.; Wang, Y.; Cheng, K.; Yang, X.; Wang, X.; Guo, S.; Liu, M.; Liu, X. A Mathematical Model to Study the Potential Hepatitis B Virus Infections and Effects of Vaccination Strategies in China. Vaccines2023, 11, 1530.
Xu, C.; Wang, Y.; Cheng, K.; Yang, X.; Wang, X.; Guo, S.; Liu, M.; Liu, X. A Mathematical Model to Study the Potential Hepatitis B Virus Infections and Effects of Vaccination Strategies in China. Vaccines 2023, 11, 1530.
Xu, C.; Wang, Y.; Cheng, K.; Yang, X.; Wang, X.; Guo, S.; Liu, M.; Liu, X. A Mathematical Model to Study the Potential Hepatitis B Virus Infections and Effects of Vaccination Strategies in China. Vaccines2023, 11, 1530.
Xu, C.; Wang, Y.; Cheng, K.; Yang, X.; Wang, X.; Guo, S.; Liu, M.; Liu, X. A Mathematical Model to Study the Potential Hepatitis B Virus Infections and Effects of Vaccination Strategies in China. Vaccines 2023, 11, 1530.
Abstract
Hepatitis B is a potentially life-threatening infectious disease caused by the hepatitis B virus (HBV), which affects the liver. Every year, about 390,000 people die from HBV-related diseases in China, about 86 million people are carriers of HBV, accounting for about 6% of the total population, and 30 million people are chronically infected. From 2002 to 2007, though China government launched “The Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization (GAVI)” program to reduce HBV infection in children, but the number of hepatitis B cases in China remains high. Reasonable estimation of potential HBV carriers is crucial to prevention and control the spread hepatitis B virus. This study is based on the case data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China from 2003 to 2021. We build a dynamic model that includes potential hepatitis B virus carriers, use nonlinear least squares and genetic algorithms to fit the parameters in the model, and calculate the reproduction number of hepatitis B virus transmission in the population and obtain R_c=1.741. The number of potential hepatitis B virus carriers is estimated to be 449,535 (95%CI [415651 to 483420]) based on our model, which is 30.49% of the total number of hepatitis B cases, and the simulation results show the number of chronic hepatitis B incidence decreases as the vaccination rate α increases, increasing α by 20%, the number of chronic hepatitis B incidence decreases by 169,469 on average.
Medicine and Pharmacology, Epidemiology and Infectious Diseases
Copyright:
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Received:
14 June 2023
Commenter:
Chuan qing Chuanqing
Commenter's Conflict of Interests:
Author
Comment: Nomore details of the maniscript was changed. The corresponding author is Professor Xiaoling LIU, whose email is [email protected]. The e-mail is corrected.
Commenter: Chuan qing Chuanqing
Commenter's Conflict of Interests: Author