Version 1
: Received: 17 May 2024 / Approved: 20 May 2024 / Online: 21 May 2024 (15:10:11 CEST)
How to cite:
Jihan, M. A. T.; Popy, S.; Kayes, S.; Rasul, G.; Maowa, A. S.; Rahman, M. M. Climate Change Scenario in Bangladesh: Historical Data Analysis and Future Projection Based on CMIP6 Model. Preprints2024, 2024051315. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202405.1315.v1
Jihan, M. A. T.; Popy, S.; Kayes, S.; Rasul, G.; Maowa, A. S.; Rahman, M. M. Climate Change Scenario in Bangladesh: Historical Data Analysis and Future Projection Based on CMIP6 Model. Preprints 2024, 2024051315. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202405.1315.v1
Jihan, M. A. T.; Popy, S.; Kayes, S.; Rasul, G.; Maowa, A. S.; Rahman, M. M. Climate Change Scenario in Bangladesh: Historical Data Analysis and Future Projection Based on CMIP6 Model. Preprints2024, 2024051315. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202405.1315.v1
APA Style
Jihan, M. A. T., Popy, S., Kayes, S., Rasul, G., Maowa, A. S., & Rahman, M. M. (2024). Climate Change Scenario in Bangladesh: Historical Data Analysis and Future Projection Based on CMIP6 Model. Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202405.1315.v1
Chicago/Turabian Style
Jihan, M. A. T., Al Shafi Maowa and Md Mustafijur Rahman. 2024 "Climate Change Scenario in Bangladesh: Historical Data Analysis and Future Projection Based on CMIP6 Model" Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202405.1315.v1
Abstract
During the last decade, Bangladesh has been experienced a significant climatic anomalies which lead to an increase in magnitude and frequency of various climate relate extreme events. Climate scientists substantiate that global temperature and precipitation pattern is expected to change, which may result in consequential impact on agriculture, livelihood, and ecosystem. Bangladesh is therefore likely to face substantial challenges in the coming decades. In order to adequately understand this complex, dynamic phenomena, Analyzing historical Climate change scenarios as well as projecting its future trends is a great concern for researcher. This study aims to analyzes/ historical climatic data from (1901-2020), and predict future temperature and precipitation patterns in Bangladesh using CMIP6 data. Data used in this study (Observed data is from CRU TS 4.05 and future data is from CMIP6) have been acquired from WorldClim v2.1. Various methods including correlation, regression, standard deviation, correlation matrix, percentiles, cell statistics, and IDW interpolation were performed to analyze the trends, variability and spatial patterns of temperature and rainfall. This study revealed that Over the historical study period (1901-2020) Bangladesh has been experienced a significant warming trend with an average increase in temperature 2°C and with annual decline of the total precipitation 607.26 mm along with a shift towards drier conditions despite weak correlation with hotter years. Projected climate models represents that Bangladesh minimum temperature is expected to increase from 1°C to 4.4°C as well as maximum temperatures from 1°C to 4.1°C by 2100. Moreover, projected precipitation is expected to increase by 480.38 mm, with the biggest rises during monsoon months. Regional variations in temperature and precipitation are again expected, with the Southeast (SE) likely experiencing the most significant warming and the Northeast (NE) seeing the most substantial increase in precipitation.
Keywords
Bangladesh; Climate Change; Global climate models; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
Subject
Environmental and Earth Sciences, Environmental Science
Copyright:
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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