As a vital component of the terrestrial ecosystem, grassland accounts for one-third of the global vegetation system. Grassland degradation has been exacerbated due to extreme overgrazing in China's Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region (IMAR). While conservation was carried out as the Ecological Subsidy and Award Program (ESAP) to mitigate grassland degradation, little is known about its effectiveness in improving the biophysical conditions of grassland. This paper integrates the conceptual frameworks of total socio-environmental systems to assess how ecological systems respond to ESAP, investigate spatial heterogeneity of ESAP, and explore the meddling effects of socio-environmental interactions on ESAP. We integrate ecological, climate, and socioeconomic data and developed several hierarchical linear mixed models (HLMM) to investigate how these factors interact with ESAP in IMAR. Our findings prove that the above-ground biomass between 2011 and 2015 responds significantly to variations in socioeconomic conditions and ecological communities. Available land resources, hospital and medical facilities, and net farmer and herdsman income are the most critical factors contributing to grassland productivity. Primary industries like mining, total consumer retail value, farming, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery productions, and GDP are the most damaging factors affecting biomass. Our study recommends a regionally or locally tailored ecological recovery policy, instead of a generalized one, in the future effort to conserve grassland.

Mammarenavirus Wenzhouense (WENV) is broadly distributed in Asia, while the he dynamics process of WENV infection remains unclear. A field derived strain of WENV was used to inoculate Sprague-Dawley (SD) rats by intramuscular injection, the process of virus infection was de-tected by controlling time for 28 days. Viral RNA became detectable in the blood at 3 d pi, and remained detectable for about 12 d. In most organ tissues, viral RNA peaked at 7 d pi, then began to decline by 14 d, however remained detectable in intestine and brain tissues at 21 and 28 d pi. Virus shedding had been detected from fecal samples for 5 days from 6 to 11 d pi using qRT-PCR, and was recovered from feces collected at 8 d pi. Horizontal contact infection occurred among cage-mates at 14 and 21 d pi. Antibodies against the nucleocapsid were detected at 5 dpi, next increased and persisted until the end of experiment. The results enabled to discriminate the kinetic of viremic response, virus shedding in feces and horizontal transmission, as well as the potential sites for WENV replication or maintenance of the virus in nature.

A new model for international bed numbers is applied to local area populations for English Clinical Commissioning Groups (CCGs) where the Age Standardized Mortality Rate (ASMR) is used as a measure of population health and hence for total occupied hospital bed demand (elective plus emergency admission types, including acute, rehabilitation, mental health, and maternity), rather than simple bed availability. A 100-unit increase in ASMR (European Standard population) leads to a 15.3 – 30.7 (feasible range) unit increase in occupied beds per 1,000 deaths. ASMR shows why the Australian states of the Northern Territory and Tasmania have an intrinsic higher bed demand than the other states – although in both cases the bed planning methodologies failed to indicate this need and both states show a large bed deficit. Due to the high volatility in bed demand the average bed demand for 2019 was determined by a linear trend using data for 2014/15 to 2019/20 — as the pre-COVID-19 baseline. The slope of the relationship between occupied beds per 1,000 deaths and deaths per 1,000 population shows a power law function. As is to be expected there is scatter around the trend line which will partly arise from uncertainty in the expected occupied beds in 2019, fluctuations in both ASMR and deaths per 1,000 population from one year to another, changes in the number of persons on the elective, outpatient and diagnostic waiting lists, and local area variation in births and consequently upon maternity, neonatal and pediatric bed demand. Additional variation in bed demand will arise from differences in the level of funding for social care, especially elderly care, and to a lesser extent upon patients using private health care, and charitable hospices for palliative care. However, after including the change in bed demand arising from ASMR the model is sufficiently accurate to identify gross differences in bed demand as a prelude to further investigation. The model requires further extension to cover specialty-level demand, and perhaps segregation between elective and emergency types of inpatient demand. A method for benchmarking the whole hospital’s average bed occupancy is given which enables them to run at optimum efficiency and safety. Using this method English hospitals can be shown to operate at highly disruptive and unsafe levels of bed occupancy leading to deleterious ‘turn-away’. Turn-away implies bed unavailability for the next arriving patient. The problems associated with crafting effective bed planning are illustrated using the English NHS as an example.

The Eastern Kunlun Fault Zone (EKFZ) is located in a seismic blank area. This study investigates the hydrogeochemical characteristics of varied-temperature springs in the EKFZ to understand the relationship between fractures, fluids and earthquakes. It aids in establishing their induction mechanisms and assists in monitoring the earthquake precursors of the EKFZ. In this study, the main elements, trace elements, hydrogen and oxygen isotopes and strontium isotopes of 23 varied-temperature springs in the EKFZ were analyzed. The results reveal the source of groundwater recharge, hydrochemical types, mineral saturation, and for a select few springs indicative of geothermal activity, collected geothermal reservoir temperatures. The study also explores the relationship between earthquakes and springs, identifying sensitive chemical indicators. Based on continuous monitoring at Maqu Station, we found that before the occurrence of the Maerkang Ms 6.0 earthquake, the concentration of Cl− rose by 2.9 times, and 46 days before the Gande earthquake (Ms = 4.7), the concentrations of Na+ and SO42− significantly increased. Finally, a conceptual model of the hydrogeochemistry of springs is presented to describe the groundwater circulation in the study area. This research is of great significance for the analysis of fluid geochemistry in this area and for assessing the seismic hazards of the EKFZ.

The Saudi Vision 2030 is critical to boosting national development, notably in the construction industry. The construction industry is getting a lot of attention in a variety of ways, the most visible of which is the promotion of best practices, including project management office (PMO) applications. Hail province, like others, is experiencing project delivery issues. Thus, the purpose of this research is to explore the suitable PMO model for Hail public construction projects. A literature review included the drive factors for establishing PMO in construction firms, as well as PMO models and typologies that describe functions. Therefore, those drive factors and PMO models were subjected to a focus group to explore their suitability in the context of Hail. The research findings reveal that the Enterprise PMO is the main for Hail public construction pro-jects, followed respectively by the Program Management Office model and the Project Management Center of Excellence (PMCOE). This method of selection a PMO model is driving construction companies and related businesses to change in order to improve the sector while also ad-dressing construction project delivery challenges in Hail province.

The pollution of the bays in Abidjan is a major concern for the Ivorian policy makers. In fact, the pollution of the bays induce high costs to the society while impacting population health dramatically. As a result, pollution reduction management of production activities has been undertaken in the Cocody Bay area. To our knowledge, no study has yet proposed a model to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of these pollution management strategies. A cost-effectiveness model, based on Monte Carlo simulation, was developed to assess the economic and environmental impacts of various scenarios characterized by a set of production practices, both in the short term and in the long term. The authors discuss the steps and input parameters of the model presented. The proposed model may serve as the basis for identifying an optimal production scenario defined as the scenario with the best incremental cost-effectiveness ratio considering a willingness to pay (WTP) threshold. The WTP, to be estimated based on the gross domestic product of Côte d’Ivoire, represents the opportunity costs associated with selecting the optimal scenario. The current framework can also be applied to other settings facing similar challenge.

Grossversuch IV is a large and well documented experiment on hail suppression by silver iodide seeding. The original 1986 evaluation remained vague, although indicating a tendency to increase hail when seeding. The strategy to deal with distributions of hail energy far from normal was not optimal. The present re-evaluation sticks to the question asked and avoids both misleading transformations and unsatisfactory meteorological predictors. The raw data show an increase by about a factor of 3 for the hail energy when seeding. This is the opposite of what seeding is supposed to do. The probability to obtain such a result by chance is below 1%, calculated by permutation and bootstrap techniques applied on the raw data. Confidence intervals were approximated by bootstrapping as well as by a new method called "correlation imposed permutation" (CIP).

Background: Metformin is a drug used to treat patients with type 2 diabetes, especially those who suffer from obesity. It is also used in the treatment of women with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS). This disease has been shown to be related to insulin resistance and multiplied blood sugar ranges. Further, it has been found that the use of metformin improves the menstrual cycles and ovulation rates of these women. Methods: A structured questionnaire will be conducted to determine the prevalence of breast cancer among women using metformin in the Ha’il region. Result: Incidence of breast cancer among women using metformin in the Ha’il region is very low. Conclusions: According to previous findings, metformin has been linked to lower breast cancer risk in women with type 2 diabetes. Furthermore, the findings of this study have corroborated the literature for the same by indicating that there is a substantial connection between metformin use and a lower risk of breast cancer in women with type 2 diabetes

This paper investigates five different GARCH models (GARCH, EGARCH, IGARCH, Component GARCH (CGARCH) and GJR-GARCH) along with six distributions (Normal, Student’s t, GED and their skewed forms), which are used to forecast the volatility for the Bulgarian Stock index SOFIX. We use a GARCH model to predict how much time it will take, after the latest crisis, for the SOFIX index to reach its historical peak once again. The empirical data covers the period between the years 2000 and 2024, including the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. The purpose is to answer which of the five models is the best at forecasting the volatility of SOFIX and which distribution is most appropriate. The results, based on BIC and AIC information criteria, show that the ARMA(1,1)-CGARCH(1,1) specification with the Student t-distribution is preferred for forecasting. With the help of 5000 simulations, it is estimated that the chances of Index SOFIX reaching its historical peak value of 1976.73 (08.10.2007) are higher than 90% at 13.08.2087.

Day-ahead forecasting of electricity prices is important in deregulated electricity markets for all the stakeholders: energy wholesalers, traders, retailers, and consumers. Electricity price forecasting is an inherently difficult problem due to its special characteristic of dynamicity and non-stationarity. In this paper, we present a robust price forecasting mechanism that shows resilience towards aggregate demand response effect and provides highly accurate forecasted electricity prices to the stakeholders in a dynamic environment. We employ an ensemble prediction model in which a group of different algorithms participate in predicting the price for each hour of a day. We propose two different strategies, namely, Fixed Weight Method (FWM) and Varying Weight Method (VWM), for selecting each hour's expert algorithm from the set of participating algorithms. In addition, we utilize a carefully engineered set of features selected from a pool of features derived from information such as past electricity price data, weather data, and calendar data. The proposed ensemble model offers better results than both the Pattern Sequence-based Forecasting (PSF) method and our own previous work using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) alone do on the datasets for New York, Australian, and Spanish electricity markets.

The goal of the study presented in this article is to investigate interconnection issues of the Intelligent Electrical Networks (IENs) with the existing ones, as well as the deployment of the appropriate load forecasting demand techniques. The concept of IENs has recently emerged as a potential solution to the global energy problem, due to the more flexible dispersed production units that are involved. In the same context, additional issues, such as the reduction of production-transfer-distribution costs as well as power losses are analyzed as well, via the penetration of Renewable Energy Sources (RESs). To this end, it is necessary to use appropriate advanced infrastructure, where in combination with modern telecommunication networks will make possible the full exploitation of IENs. Moreover, to make the electricity system more efficient, to avoid voltage and frequency imbalance issues and to implement optimal production and consumption planning, the Electric Load Forecast (ELF) is a vital process and plays a key role in the planning as well as in the management of electricity systems. Therefore, recent state of the art approaches in ELF methods are discussed as well.

The high penetration of distributed energy resources poses significant challenges to the dispatch and operation of power systems. Improving the accuracy of short-term load forecasting (STLF) can optimize grid management, leading to increased economic and social benefits. Currently, some simple AI and hybrid models has issues to deal with and struggle with multivariate dependencies, long-term dependencies, and non-linear relationships. This paper proposes a novel hybrid model for short-term load forecasting (STLF) that integrates multiple AI models with Lasso regression using the stacking technique. The base learners include ANN, XgBoost, LSTM, Stacked LSTM, and Bi-LSTM, while Lasso regression serves as the meta-learner. By considering factors such as temperature, rainfall, and daily electricity prices, the model aims to more accurately reflect real-world conditions and enhance predictive accuracy. Empirical analyses on real-world datasets from Australia and Spain show significant improvements in forecasting accuracy, with a substantial reduction in Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) compared to existing hybrid models and individual AI models. This research highlights the efficiency of the stacking technique in improving STLF accuracy, suggesting potential operational efficiency benefits for the power industry.

We present a novel approach to repurpose the antifungal agent Miconazole as an anticancer therapeutic using olive oil-based nanoemulsion. The nanoemulsion exhibited a mean particle size of 177.76 ± 5.2 nm with a zeta potential of -24 ± 0.94 mV. Remarkably, Miconazole-loaded nanoemulsion displayed an IC50 of 1.4 ± 0.4 µg/ml against MCF-7 cells, while inducing apoptotic cell death by 70.31 ± 2.1%. In HePG2 and HCT 116 cells, IC50 values of 10.7 ± 1.2 and 5.9 ± 0.7 µg/ml were observed, respectively. These results demonstrate the promising anticancer potential of Miconazole-loaded olive oil nanoemulsion, highlighting its potential for repurposing Miconazole agents as effective anticancer therapeutics.

Electricity price forecasting has become a crucial element for both private and public decision-making. This importance has been growing since the wave of deregulation and liberalization of energy sector worldwide late 1990s. Given these facts, this paper tries to come up with a precise and flexible forecasting model for the wholesale electricity price for the Italian power market on an hourly basis. We utilize artificial intelligence models such as neural networks and bagged regression trees that are rarely used to forecast electricity prices. After model calibration, our final model is bagged regression trees with exogenous variables. The selected model outperformed neural network and bagged regression with single price used in this paper, it also outperformed other statistical and non-statistical models used in other studies. We also confirm some theoretical specifications of the model. As a policy implication, this model might be used by energy traders, transmission system operators and energy regulators for an enhanced decision-making process.

The enormous growth in the penetration of electric vehicles (EVs), has laid the path to advancements in the charging infrastructure. Connectivity between charging stations is an essential prerequisite for future EV adoption to alleviate users’ “range anxiety”. The existing charging stations fail to adopt power provision allocation and scheduling management. To improve the existing charging infrastructure data based on real-time information and availability of reserves at charging stations could be uploaded to the users to help them locate the nearest charging station for an EV. This research article focuses on an a interactive user application developed through SQL and PHP platform to allocate the charging slots based on estimated battery parameters, which uses data communication with charging stations to receive the slot availability information. The proposed server-based real-time forecast charging infrastructure avoids waiting times and its scheduling management efficiently prevents the EV from halting on road due to battery drain out. The proposed model is implemented using a low-cost microcontroller and the system etiquette tested.

Electricity load forecasting is a crucial undertaking within all the deregulated markets globally. In contemporary times, the transition from conventional electricity grids to Smart Grids constitutes an area where extensive research is conducted on a global scale. Among the research challenges, the investigation of Deep Transfer Learning (DTL) in the field of electricity load forecasting represents a fundamental effort that imparts generality to Artificial Intelligence applications, due to new capabilities, such as knowledge transfer and computational power reduction. In this paper a comprehensive study is conducted for day-ahead electricity load forecasting. For this purpose, three Sequence-to-Sequence (Seq2seq) Deep Learning (DL) models are used, namely the Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), the Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and the Ensemble Learning Model (ELM), which is consisted of the weighted combination of the outputs of MLP and CNN models. Also, the study focuses on the development of different forecasting strategies based on DTL and emphasizing the way the datasets are trained and fine-tuning for higher forecasting accuracy. In order to implement the forecasting strategies using Deep Learning models, load datasets from three Greek islands, Rhodes, Lesvos, and Chios, are used. The main purpose is to apply DTL for day-ahead predictions (1-24 hours) for each month of the year for Chios dataset after training and fine-tuning the models using the datasets of the three islands in various combinations. After several trials, four DTL strategies are illustrated. In the first strategy (DTL Case 1), each of the three DL models is trained using only Lesvos dataset, while fine-tuning is performed on the dataset of Chios island, in order to create day-ahead predictions for Chios load. In the second strategy (DTL Case 2), data from both Lesvos and Rhodes concurrently are used for the DL model training period, and fine-tuning is performed on the data from Chios. The third DTL strategy (DTL Case 3) contains the training of the DL models using Lesvos dataset, and the testing period performed directly on the Chios dataset without fine-tuning. The fourth strategy is a Multi-task Deep Learning (MTDL) approach, which has been extensively studied in recent years. In MTDL, the three DL models are trained simultaneously on all three datasets and the final predictions are made on the unknown part of the dataset of Chios. In this paper, we explore the performance of DTL and compare the results with those produced with MTDL. The results demonstrated that DTL can be applied with high efficiency for day-ahead load forecasting. Specifically, the two cases with fine-tuning (DTL Case 1 and 2) outperformed MTDL in terms of load prediction accuracy. Regarding the DL models, all three exhibit very high prediction accuracy, especially in the two cases with fine-tuning. The ELM excels compared to the single models. More specifically, for conducting day-ahead predictions, it has been concluded that the MLP model presents best monthly forecasts with a MAPE of 6.24% and 6.01% for the first two cases, the CNN model presents best monthly forecasts with a MAPE of 5.57% and 5.60% respectively and the ELM model achieves best monthly forecasts with a MAPE of 5.29% and 5.31%, respectively, indicating the very high accuracy it can achieve.

We have developed additive logistic models for the occurrence of lightning, large (≥ 2 cm), and very large (≥ 5 cm) hail to investigate the evolution of these hazards in the past, in the future, and for forecasting applications. The models, trained with lightning observations, hail reports, and predictors from atmospheric reanalysis, assign an hourly probability to any location and time on a 0.25° × 0.25° × 1-hourly grid as a function of reanalysis-derived predictor parameters, selected following an ingredients- based approach. The resulting hail models outperform the Significant Hail Parameter and the simulated climatological spatial distributions and annual cycles of lightning and hail are consistent with observations from storm report databases, radar, and lightning detection data. As a corollary result, CAPE released above the -10°C isotherm was found to be a more universally skilful predictor for large hail than CAPE. In the period 1950–2021, the models applied to the ERA5 reanalysis indicate significant increases of lightning and hail across most of Europe, primarily due to rising low-level moisture. The strongest modelled hail increases occur in northern Italy with increasing rapidity after 2010. Here, very large hail has become 3 times more likely than it was in the 1950s. Across North America trends are comparatively small, apart from isolated significant increases in the direct lee of the Rocky Mountains and across the Canadian Plains. In the southern Plains, a period of enhanced storm activity occurred in the 1980s and 1990s.

Accurate measurement of systemic financial risk is critical to maintaining the stability of financial markets. Taking China as the subject of investigation, the Chinese Financial Stress Index (CFSI) indicator system was con-structed by integrating six dimensions and employing Gray Relation Analysis (GRA) for dimensionality reduction of the indicators. The CFSI was derived using the Attribute Hierarchy Model (AHM) method with the Criteria Importance Through the Intercriteria Correlation (CRITIC) method, and an Improved Gravitational Search Algorithm (IGSA) optimized Radial Basis Function Neural Network (RBFNN) was proposed for out-of-sample prediction of CFSI trends from 2024 to 2026. By analyzing the trend of financial pressure indicators, the relationship between financial pressure and economic activity can be effectively identified. The research findings indicate that: (1) The CFSI is capable of accurately reflecting the current financial stress situation in China; (2) The IGSA-RBFNN demonstrates good robustness and generalization capabilities, predicting that the CFSI index will reach a peak value of 0.543 by the end of 2024, and there exists a regular pattern of stress rebound towards the end of each year. The novel methodology benefits policymakers and regulatory authorities to formulate preventive measures and risk management by identifying potential risks and vulnerabilities in advance.

This study considers an application of the first-order Grey Markov Model to foresee the values of Italian power generation in relation to the available energy sources. The model is used to fit data from the Italian energy system from 2000 to 2022. The integration of Markovian error introduces a random element to the model, which is able now to capture inherent uncertainties and misalignments between the Grey model predictions and the real data. This application provides valuable insights for strategic planning in the energy sector and future developments. The results show good accuracy of the predictions, which provides powerful information for the effective implementation of energy policies concerning the evolution of energy demand in the country. Despite advancements, Italy’s 2032 energy mix will still significantly rely on fossil fuels, emphasizing the need for sustained efforts beyond 2032 to enhance sustainability.

This paper addresses the evolving landscape of electricity markets in Europe, with a focus on the integration of Renewable Energy Communities as introduced by the Renewable Energy Directive 2018/2001. Residents within a postal code area are highly incentivized to join a community, which enables them to exchange energy among themselves at lower procurement costs. Thereby, energy management systems optimize the operation of respective energy systems, with electrical load forecasting playing a key role. Given that prosumers may switch between communities on a daily basis, electricity demands within these groups will vary, leading to data that is non-stationary, discontinuous as well as non-identical and independently distributed. To encounter this issue, we propose a sophisticated forecasting model that applies federated learning, using informations from various distributed communities to learn domain-invariant features. To achieve this, we initially utilize synthetic electrical load time series at district level and aggregate them to profiles of Renewable Energy Communities with dynamic portfolios. Subsequently, we develop a forecasting model that accounts for the composition of residents of a Renewable Energy Community, adapt data pre-processing in accordance with the time series process, and detail a federated learning algorithm that incorporates weight averaging and data sharing. Following the training of various experimental setups, we ultimately evaluate their effectiveness. The findings suggest that our proposed framework is capable of effectively forecast non-stationary and discontinuous time series and that it can be applied to new, unseen data through the integration of knowledge from multiple sources.

Logistics plays an important role in globalized companies and contributes to the development of foreign trade. A large number of external conditions, such as recession and inflation, affect logistics. Therefore, managers should find ways to improve operational performance, enabling them to increase efficiency while considering environmental sustainability due to the industry’s large scale of energy consumption. Based on data collected from the financial reports of top global logistics companies, this study uses a DEA model to calculate corporate efficiency by implementing a Grey forecasting approach to forecast future sustainability values. Consequently, the study addresses the problem of how to enhance operational performance while accounting for the impact of external conditions. This research can help logistics companies develop operation strategies in the future that will enhance their competitiveness vis-à-vis rivals in a time of global economic volatility.

To enhance the safety of power grid operations, this study proposes a high-precision short-term photovoltaic power prediction method that integrates information from surrounding pho-tovoltaic stations and the Conv-LSTM-ATT model. In the deep learning prediction model, not only is numerical weather prediction (NWP) data from the target photovoltaic station used as input features, but also highly correlated features from nearby photovoltaic stations are incor-porated. The research begins by analyzing the correlation between irradiance and power se-quences, along with distance factors, to calculate a composite similarity index between the target and other regional photovoltaic stations. Stations with high similarity indices are then selected as data sources. Subsequently, Bayesian optimization techniques are employed to find the optimal data fusion ratios. Ultimately, using the selected data, power prediction mod-eling is conducted via the Conv-LSTM-ATT deep neural network. Experimental results con-firm the superiority of the proposed model, which demonstrates higher predictive accuracy compared to three other classical models. The data fusion strategy determined by Bayesian optimization significantly enhances prediction accuracy, reducing the root mean square error (RMSE) of the test set by 20.04%, 28.24%, and 30.94% for three weather types, respectively.

Globalization and industrialization have significantly disturbed the environmental ecosystem, leading to critical challenges such as global warming, extreme weather events, and water scarcity. Forecasting temperature trends is crucial for enhancing the resilience and quality of life in smart sustainable cities, enabling informed decision-making and proactive urban planning. This research specifically targets Ahmedabad city in India and employs the Seasonal Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average with eXogenous factors (SARIMAX) model to forecast temperatures over a ten-year horizon using two decades of real-time temperature data. The stationarity of the dataset was confirmed using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test, and the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) method helped identify the optimal seasonal parameters of the model, ensuring a balance between fidelity and predictive accuracy. The model achieved an RMSE of 1.0265, indicating high accuracy within the typical range for urban temperature forecasting. This robust measure of error underscores the model’s precision in predicting temperature deviations, which is particularly relevant for urban planning and environmental management. The findings provide city planners and policymakers with valuable insights and tools for preempting adverse environmental impacts, marking a significant step towards operational efficiency and enhanced governance in future smart urban ecosystems. Future work may extend the model's applicability to broader geographical areas and incorporate additional environmental variables to refine predictive accuracy further.

There is a growing concern about climate change being a serious threat to insurance business sustainability. Knowing if climate warming is a cause for claims and losses increase, and how this cause-effect relationship will develop in the future are two open major questions. In this article, we answer both questions by particularizing the geographical area of Spain, and a precise risk, hailstorm in crop insurance in the line of business of wine grapes. We measure climate change thanks to the Spanish Actuarial Climate Index (SACI). We use a database containing all the claims caused by hail risk in Spain from 1990 to 2022. With homogenized data, we consider as dependent variables the monthly number of claims, monthly number of loss costs equal to one, and monthly total losses. The independent variable is the monthly Spanish Actuarial Climate Index (SACI). We try to explain the former through the latter using regression and quantile regression models. Our main finding is that climate change as measured by SACI explains these three dependent variables. We also give an estimation of the increase of the monthly total losses Value at Risk, corresponding to a future increase in climate change measured in units of SACI. Spanish crop insurance managers should carefully incorporate these conclusions into their decision-making process to keep this line of business sustainable in the future.

Accurate forecasting of available energy portion that corresponds to the reservoir inflow of the month(s) ahead provides important decision support for the hydropower plants in energy pro-duction planning for revenue maximization, as well as for the environmental impact prevention, and flood control at the upstream and downstream of a basin. Therefore, a reliable forecasting tool or model is deemed necessary and crucial. Considering the fluctuation and nonlinearity of data which significantly influence the forecasting results, this study develops an effective hybrid model by integrating Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) called “PSO-ANN” model based on the hydrological and meteorological data pre-processed by cross-correlation function (CCF), autocorrelation function (AFC), and normalization techniques for predicting the available energy portion corresponding to the reservoir inflow mentioned above for a case study hydropower plant in Laos namely, Theun-Hinboun hydropower plant (THHP). The model was evaluated by using correlation coefficient (r), relative error (RE), root mean square error (RMSE), and Taylor diagram plots in comparison with the popular single algorithm approaches such as ANN, and NARX models. Results demonstrated the superiority of the proposed PSO-ANN approach over the other two models.

Organic-rich shale deposits of the Paleocene-Eocene Palana Formation in western Rajasthan, India were systematically analyzed based on the elemental composition and organic geochemistry combined with microscopic examinations to evaluate the sedimentary paleoenvironmental conations and volcanic activity and their impact on the high organic carbon accumulation. The Palana shales are categorized by high OM and sulfur contents with total values up to 36.23 wt. % and 2.24 wt. %, respectively, suggesting marine setting and anoxic environmental conditions during the Paleocene-Eocene period. The richness of phytoplankton algae (i.e., telalginite and lamalginite) together with redox-sensitive trace elements further suggests anoxic environmental conditions. The significant low oxygen conditions may contributes to enhance preservation of organic matter during deposition. The mineralogical and inorganic geochemical indicators demonstrate that the Palana organic-rich shale facies was accumulated in warm and humid climate and low salinity stratification conditions of the water columns, thereby contributing to high bioproductivity of the phytoplankton algae blooms within the photic zone. The presence of the high concentrations of Fe-rich silica minerals such as olivine in most of the Palana organic-rich shales facility volcanic origin and supports hydrothermal activities during the Paleocene-Eocene period. These volcanic activities in this case are considered influx of large masses of nutrients into the photic zone due to the ash accumulation. Therefore, high bio-productivity associated with effective OM preservation contributed to the organic carbon accumulation in the Palana Formation during the Paleocene-Eocene.

The Imbalance Cost Pass-Through (ICPT) is a flexible component of the Incentive Regulation (IBR) that empowers power producers to adjust tariffs in response to variable fuel prices, thereby enhancing the economic resilience of electricity generation. However, the cost of electricity generation is significantly influenced by the volatility of commodity prices, including coal, gas and LNG. In Malaysia, the Energy Commission has conducted biannual reviews of fuel and other generation costs. Any cost savings or increases identified during these reviews will be passed on to customers in the form of rebates or surcharges. Due to that reason, this study proposes ICPT price forecasting for the electricity market in Peninsular Malaysia. The study aims to construct an ICPT-related baseline model for the peninsular generation data by employing three forecasting methods. The forecasting performance is analysed by a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). In findings, the ARIMA method is one of the most accurate forecasting methods for fuel prices compared to the Moving Average (MA) and LSSVM methods. The observed price differences between the ARIMA and LSSVM models for ICPT are minimal. The ICPT price for July-December 2022 and January-June 2023 is MYR 0.21/ kWh for ARIMA and MYR 0.18/kWh for LSSVM, which are close to the actual TNB’s ICPT tariff. As for the forecasting, the ICPT price is expected to drop for the next announcement. The findings of this study may contribute to a positive impact on the sustainability of the energy sector in Malaysia.

With the global objectives of achieving a ‘carbon peak’ and ‘carbon neutrality’, along with the implementation of carbon reduction policies, China’s industrial structure has undergone significant adjustments, resulting in constraints on high-energy consumption and high-emission industries while promoting the rapid growth of green industries. Consequently, these changes have led to an increasingly complex power system structure and presented new challenges for electricity demand forecasting. To address this issue, this study proposes a 24-step multivariate time series short-term load forecasting algorithm model based on KNN data imputation and BiTCN bidirectional temporal convolutional networks combined with BiGRU bidirectional gated recurrent units and attention mechanism. The Kepler adaptive optimization algorithm (KOA) is employed for hyperparameter optimization to effectively enhance prediction accuracy. Furthermore, using real load data from a wind farm in Xinjiang as an example, this paper predicts the electricity load from January 1st to December 30th in 2019. Experimental results demonstrate that our comprehensive short-term load forecasting model exhibits lower prediction errors and superior performance compared to traditional methods, thus holding great value for practical applications.

When dealing with limited sample sizes or missing values in time series data, achieving high accuracy in forecasting becomes challenging. This challenge is particularly common in wind energy forecasting, where many wind farms lack complete data. In this paper, we employ the widely-used ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) model for time series forecasting. To address the difficulties posed by limited sample sizes and missing values, we adopt a unique approach by utilizing multiple ARIMA models for different datasets. A key distinction from other multiple models methods for time series forecasting lies in each model within our approach using its own dataset, making the fusion process more intricate. To overcome this, we incorporate neural networks and two techniques for model fusion: direct fusion with a learning mechanism and compensation for missing data through training. For each ARIMA model, we introduce a noise estimation method to circumvent the white noise assumptions inherent in ARIMA models. Finally, we apply these methods to wind energy prediction, and our experimental results showcase a significant enhancement in forecasting accuracy.

Hail causes damage to property, including roofs, automobiles, and crops, with an average annual loss of $850 million. In residential structures, tile roofing systems are common in the southern U.S. due to their resistance to hail impact and long service life. Additionally, the commercial buildings and some portions of the residential structures have low-sloped or flat roof systems. Commercial low-slope roof systems are equally prone to hail-strike damages as steep residential roof systems. The objectives of this paper are to present a literature review, inspection protocol, and case studies on a comparative assessment of hail threshold for built-up roof (BUR) and tile roof (TR) systems. The published papers determining the hail impact assessment of different roofing systems from 1969 through 2023 were studied and analyzed. This study develops a comparative hail damage assessment table between BUR and TR systems, and the hail threshold for various built-up roof composition systems. In addition, the different failure modes and their causes, the characteristics of hail impacts, and the variables influencing the impact resistance of these roofing systems were examined using field studies. To better understand the effects, it is recommended that an intelligent model be developed to predict the hail resistance threshold of various configurations of BUR and TR systems with critical variables.

The accurate forecasting of solar power output is essential for ensuring the stable and efficient operation of grid-connected photovoltaic (PV) systems, especially when faced with variable weather patterns. This research focuses on the integration of Machine Learning (ML) methodologies and climatic parameters to predict solar panel energy generation, with a specific emphasis on addressing consumption-production imbalances. Leveraging a dataset sourced from the Kaggle platform, the study is conducted in the context of Estonia, aiming to optimize solar energy utilization in this geographic region. The dataset, obtained from Kaggle, encompasses comprehensive information on climatic variables, including sunlight intensity, temperature, and humidity, alongside corresponding solar panel energy output. Leveraging machine learning algorithms, including XGBoost regression and neural networks, our model aims to identify complex patterns and relationships within the datasets. By tailoring the model to Estonia's climatic nuances, we seek to enhance the accuracy of energy production forecasts and, consequently, better manage the challenges associated with consumption-production imbalances. Furthermore, the research investigates the adaptability of the proposed model to diverse climatic conditions, ensuring its applicability for similar endeavors in other geographical locations. The performance of the forecasting model will be evaluated using error metrics like mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean squared error (RMSE). This study leverages a comprehensive dataset from Kaggle and utilizes advanced machine learning techniques to generate valuable insights. These insights can inform the development of sustainable energy policies and practices, ultimately leading to a more efficient and reliable renewable energy infrastructure.

Droughts have negative impacts on agricultural productivity and economic growth. Effective monitoring and accurate forecasting of drought occurrences and trends are crucial for minimizing drought losses and mitigating their spatial and temporal effects. In this study, trend dynamics in monthly total rainfall time series measured at Cape Town International Airport were analyzed using Mann-Kendall (MK) test, Modified Mann-Kendall (MMK) and innovative trend analysis (ITA) were examined. Additionally, we utilized hybrid prediction method that combined the model with the complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN) technique, the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, the long short-term memory (LSTM) network (i.e. CEEMDAN-ARIMA-LSTM) to forecast SPI values of 6-, 9-, and 12-months using rainfall data between 1995 and 2020 from Cape Town International Airport meteorological rainfall stations. The results demonstrate the following essential points: (1) The trend analysis results of the total monthly rainfall values indicate a significant decreasing trend with the negative z-score (MK= -3.7541 and MMK= - 4.0773). ITA also indicated a significant downwards trend of rainfall in the study area. (2) As the forecasting horizon increases, the prediction accuracy of the models and CEEMDAN-combined models gradually improves, reaching their optimum performance at the 12-month horizon. (3) CEEMDAN efficiently stabilizes time-series data, resulting in greater prediction accuracy in the hybrid model compared to individual models at all timescales. (4) The RMSE and R2 values for the hybrid CEEMDAN-ARIMA-LSTM model at a 12-month forecasting horizon are 0.042 and 0.995, demonstrating the applicability of this hybrid approach for drought forecasting.

Breast Cancer Associated Susceptibility Proteins Type 1/2 (BRCA1/2) promote cellular functioning by modulating NRF2-mediated antioxidant signaling. Redox failure in women with BRCA1/2 insufficiency increases the risk for breast/ovarian/uterine cancers. Risk‐reducing salpingo‐oophorectomy (RRSO) is a prophylactic surgery of the reproductive organs, which is frequently conducted by the age of 40 to lower the occurrence of cancer in women with BRCA1/2 mutations. However, abrupt estrogen decline following RRSO causes ovarian failure, which implicates various cellular physiological processes, resulting in increased release of free radicals and subsequent severe onset of menopausal symptoms. Comfort measures (e.g., hormonal replacement therapy (HRT) and mindfulness-based stress reduction (MBSR)) may improve chronological menopause-related quality of life, but their specific effects are not clear in women with gene mutations. Aiming to fill the gap, this study used path analysis to examine the effects of HRT and MBSR on menopausal symptoms among RRSO patients (N = 199, mean age = 50.5 ± 6.7 years). HRT alleviated menopausal symptoms in BRCA2 carriers and women who were physically active, premenopausal at the time of RRSO, had a high BMI, and had no history of breast cancer. It increased the severity of urogenital symptoms in those with a history of cancer. MBSR, on the other hand, was associated with increased intensity of most menopausal symptoms. The results suggest that young women undergoing recent RRSO may benefit from HRT at an individual level while their need for extensive measures to optimize their psychological wellbeing is ongoing. Adverse effects of MBSR, which are captured in the present study imply that MBSR may interfere with redox sensitivity associated with estradiol fluctuations in BRCA1/2 carriers. Investigations are needed to test this hypothesis and elaborate on the underlying mechanisms in those women.

Effective solar forecasting has become a critical topic in the scholarly literature in recent years due to the rapid growth of photovoltaic energy production worldwide and the inherent variability of this source of energy. Due to the technological and econonomic limitations of energy storage solutions, using other, mosty conventional, sources to cover energy shortfalls and at the same time utilising solar surpluses production becomes necessary. The need to optimize energy systems, ensuring power continuity, and balancing energy supply and demand has led to the development of various forecasting methods and approaches based on meteorological data or photovoltaic plant characteristics. This article presents the results of a meta-review of the solar forecasting literature, including the current state of knowledge and methodological discussion. It presents a comprehensive set of forecasting methods, evaluates current classifications, and proposes a new synthetic typology. The article emphasizes the increasing role of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) techniques in improving forecast accuracy, alongside traditional statistical and physical models. It explores the challenges of hybrid and ensemble models, which combine multiple forecasting approaches to enhance performance. The paper addresses the emerging trends in solar forecasting research, such as the integration of big data and advanced computational tools. Additionally, from a methodological perspective, the article outlines a rigorous approach to the meta-review research procedure, addresses the scientific challenges associated with conducting bibliometric research, and highlights best practices and principles. This includes defining research questions, selecting eligibility criteria, literature search, data extraction, synthesis, and assessing bias and quality. The article contributes to the solar forecasting field by providing up-to-date knowledge, along with insights on the emerging trends, future research directions, and anticipating implications for the theory and practicce.

: Leveraging the sustainability of the power system market, researchers have developed various ML models for forecasting electricity demand. The LSSVM is well suited to handle complex non-linear power load series. However, the less optimal regularization parameter and the Gaussian kernel function in the LSSVM model have contributed to flawed forecasting accuracy and random generalization ability. Thus, these parameters of LSSVM need to be chosen appropriately using intelligent optimization algorithms. This study proposes a hybrid model based on the LSSVM optimized by the IBFOA for forecasting the daily electricity load in Peninsular Malaysia. The IBFOA for parameter optimization of LSSVM is introduced. The IBFOA based on the sine cosine equation is proposed to adjust the constant step size in the BFOA, which creates an imbalance between the exploration and exploitation during optimization. Finally, the load forecasting model based on LSSVM-IBFOA is constructed using MAPE as the objective function. Comparative analysis demonstrates the model, achieving the highest R2 (0.9880) and significantly reducing error metrics (MAPE, MAE, RMSE, MSE, NRMSE) compared to the baseline LSSVM (average reduction of 27.72% to 47.72%). Additionally, IBFOA exhibits faster convergence and higher accuracy compared to BFOA, highlighting the accuracy of LSSVM-IBFOA for short-term load forecasting.

This study challenges the prevailing belief in the necessity of complex models for accurate forecasting by demonstrating the effectiveness of parsimonious econometric models, namely ARCH(1) and GARCH(1,1), over deep learning robust approaches, such as LSTM and 1D-CNN neural networks, in modeling historical volatility within pre-emerging stock markets, specifically the Moroccan and Bahraini stock markets. The findings suggest reevaluating the balance between model complexity and predictive accuracy. Future research directions include investigating the potential existence of threshold effects in market capitalization for optimal model performance. This research contributes to a deeper understanding of volatility dynamics and enhances forecasting models’ effectiveness in diverse market conditions.

This study focuses on predicting PM2.5 levels at the University of Petroșani by employing advanced machine learning techniques to analyze a dataset that encapsulates a wide array of air pollutants and meteorological factors. Utilizing data from IoT sensors and established environmental monitoring stations, the research leverages Random Forest, Gradient Boosting Machines, and Support Vector Regression models to forecast air quality, emphasizing the complex interplay between various pollutants. The models demonstrate varying degrees of accuracy, with the Random Forest model achieving the highest predictive power, indicated by an R2 score of 0.82764. Our findings highlight the significant impact of specific pollutants such as NO, NO2, and CO on PM2.5 levels, suggesting targeted mitigation strategies could enhance local air quality. Additionally, the study explores the role of temporal dynamics in pollution trends, employing time-series analysis to further refine the predictive accuracy. This research contributes to the field of environmental science by providing a nuanced understanding of air quality fluctuations in a university setting and offering a replicable model for similar environments seeking to reduce airborne pollutants and protect public health.

Three facts characterize the hailstorm of 30 August 2022 in the Catalan village of La Bisbal d'Empordà and its surroundings: first, the most dramatic, the death of a child hit by a hailstone. Second, the damage to most of the roofs and cars in the town. Finally, because of the record of hail size (more than 10 cm) in Catalonia in at least the last 30 years. This research focuses on the radar field comparison and the observations provided by an electronic survey of the study area. The results reveal that weather radar sub-estimated the hail size because of different factors. On the opposite, some reporters provided an inaccurate hour. The difference of three months between the hail event and the electronic survey is the probable cause of this mistake in the time estimation. However, the survey delay helped to avoid answers with larger hail sizes than those provided by the official spotters.

Accurate forecasting of icing thickness has a great significance for ensuring the security and stability of power grid. In order to improve the forecasting accuracy, this paper proposes an icing forecasting system based on fireworks algorithm and weighted least square support vector machine (W-LSSVM). The method of fireworks algorithm is employed to select the proper input features with the purpose of eliminating the redundant influence. In addition, the aim of W-LSSVM model is to train and test the historical data-set with the selected features. The capability of this proposed icing forecasting model and framework is tested through the simulation experiments using real-world icing data from monitoring center of key laboratory of anti-ice disaster, Hunan, South China. The results show that the proposed W-LSSVM-FA method has a higher prediction accuracy and it may be a promising alternative for icing thickness forecasting.

Sentiment analysis to characterize properties of Bitcoin prices and their forecasting is here developed thanks to the capability of the Fuzzy transform to capture stylized facts and mutual connections between time series having different nature. Six years of daily Bitcoin Prices and Google Trends are analyzed in order to establish new perspectives in the management of their dynamics.

Background: Forecasting nonlinear stochastic systems most often is quite difficult, without giving in to temptations to simply simplify models for the sake of permitting simple computations. Objective: Here, two basic algorithms, Adaptive Simulated Annealing (ASA) and path-integral codes PATHINT/PATHTREE (and their quantum generalizations qPATHINT/qPATHTREE) are offered to detail such systems. Method: ASA and PATHINT/PATHTREE have been effective to forecast properties in three disparate disciplines in neuroscience, financial markets, and combat analysis. Applications are described for COVID-19. Results: Results of detailed calculations have led to new results and insights not previously obtained. Conclusion: These 3 applications give strong support to a quite generic application of these tools to stochastic nonlinear systems.

Persistent land subsidence or uplift can cause serious latent hazards to urban infrastructure. To thoroughly investigate the causes and impacts of land surface deformation, this study examines the case of Wuxi City, focusing on the land fluctuation patterns in the region following the enforcement of the groundwater abstraction prohibition policy in 2005. This research utilizes the PS-InSAR technique to quantify land surface deformations in the Wuxi region from November 2015 to June 2023 and analyzes 100 SAR images to obtain comprehensive spatiotemporal evolution data of the land surface. Furthermore, this study conducts an in-depth analysis of the effects of various factors, including groundwater, precipitation, and soil geology, on the characteristics of land surface deformation. It pioneers the application of the GARCH (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) model to analyze the time-series displacement in the study area and innovatively introduces the "amplitude factor" index to assess land surface fluctuations. This study investigates the recent land surface deformation patterns and mechanisms in Wuxi City. By integrating the "amplitude factor", it provides a scientific foundation for future urban development and disaster mitigation strategies in Wuxi City, offering valuable insights for related research.

Especially for drought periods, the higher the accuracy of reservoir inflow forecasting, the more reliable the water supply from a dam. The article focuses on probabilistic forecasting of seasonal inflow to reservoirs and determines estimates from the probabilistic seasonal inflow according to drought forecast results. The probabilistic seasonal inflow was forecasted by a copula-based Bayesian network employing a Gaussian copula function. Drought forecasting was performed by calculation of the standardized streamflow index value. The calendar year is divided into four seasons; the total inflow volume of water to a reservoir for a season is referred to as the seasonal inflow. Seasonal inflow forecasting curves conforming to drought stages produce estimates of probabilistic seasonal inflow according to the drought forecast results. The forecasted estimates of seasonal inflow were calculated by using the inflow records of Soyanggang and Andong dams in the Republic of Korea. Under the threshold probability of drought occurrence ranging from 50 to 55 %, the forecasted seasonal inflows reasonably matched critical drought records. Combining the drought forecasting with the seasonal inflow forecasting may produce reasonable estimates of drought inflow from the probabilistic forecasting of seasonal inflow to a reservoir.

This research project aimed to address the growing concern about methane emissions from seaweed by developing a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) model capable of accurately predicting these emissions. The study used PANDAS to read and analyze the dataset, incorporating statistical measures like mean, median, and standard deviation to understand the dataset. The CNN model was trained using the ReLU activation function and mean absolute error as the loss function. Model performance was evaluated through MAPE graphs, comparing the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) between training and validation sets and between true and predicted emissions, and analyzing trends in yearly greenhouse gas emissions. The results demonstrated that the CNN model achieved a high level of accuracy in predicting methane emissions, with a low MAPE between the expected and actual values. This approach should enhance our understanding of methane emissions from Sargassum, contributing to more accurate environmental impact assessments and effective mitigation strategies.

This paper presents the methods of estimating the mean square error of hydrological forecasts, allowing for assessment of their practical applicability. Depending upon the amount and composition of available hydrometeorological data, an appropriate method for forecast error estimation is chosen. A system of statistical tests for comparison of different forecasting methods for the same hydrologic characteristic with the same lead time is presented. These tests allow for choosing an optimal and most accurate forecasting method. Hydrological forecasting method efficiency estimation is based on comparing the forecast error with climatology or inertial (persistence) forecast error using presented tests.

Hybrid forecasting methods have emerged as a solution surpassing the limitations of both statistical and deep learning approaches. While the first emphasize the significance of variables, they often produce worse forecasting results when compared to newer techniques. In contrast, deep learning models remain enigmatic "black boxes" in terms of interpretability, although achieving better results in forecasting. This article introduces the Comprehensive Cross-Correlation and Lagged Linear Regression Deep Learning (CCLR-DL) framework, designed to harness the best of both approaches, enhancing forecasting accuracy while retaining model interpretability through a feature selection process. CCLR-DL blens cross-correlation analysis, lagged multiple linear regression and granger's causality procedures with deep learning architectures based on LSTM. In a practical demonstration, CCLR-DL was applied to a real database of clinical visits associated to diagnoses in Catalonia, Spain (tracking a population of 6.3 million patients during 10 years). Predicting visits enables the healthcare managers to be ready for future demand shifts. Results demonstrate a consistent and substantial improvement over standalone statistical and deep learning methods when predicting healthcare demand. This hybrid approach not only showcases its efficacy but also offers a promising solution to the challenge of balancing predictive accuracy with model explicability. In this context, this work aims to design and validate a method for feature selection and forecasting of multivariate high dimensional time series datasets not only to improve prediction accuracy but also to model transparency by identifying a subset of variables that improve predictions and G-cause the target variable.

Flood forecasting helps anticipate floods and evacuate people, but due to the access of a large number of iot data acquisition devices, the explosive growth of multidimensional data and the increasingly demanding prediction accuracy, classical parameter models and traditional machine learning algorithms are unable to meet the high efficiency and high precision requirements of prediction tasks. In recent years, deep learning algorithms represented by convolutional neural networks, recurrent neural networks and Informer models have achieved fruitful results in time series prediction tasks. The Informer model is used to predict the flood flow of the reservoir. At the same time, the prediction results are compared with the prediction results of the traditional method and the LSTM model, and how to apply the Informer model in the field of flood prediction to improve the accuracy of flood prediction is studied. The data of 28 floods in the Wan 'an Reservoir control basin from May 2014 to June 2020 were used, with areal rainfall in five subzones and outflow from two reservoirs as inputs and flood processes with different sequence lengths as outputs. The results show that the Informer model has good accuracy and applicability in flood forecasting. In the flood forecasting with sequence length of 4, 5 and 6, Informer has higher prediction accuracy, and the prediction accuracy is better than other models under the same sequence length, but the prediction accuracy will decline to a certain extent with the increase of sequence length. The Informer model stably predicts the flood peak better, and its average flood peak difference and average maximum flood peak difference are the smallest. As the length of the sequence increases, the number of fields with a maximum flood peak difference less than 15% increases, and the maximum flood peak difference decreases. Therefore, the Informer model can be used as one of the better flood forecasting methods, and it provides a new forecasting method and scientific decision-making basis for reservoir flood control.

Since December 2019, the world is fighting against coronavirus disease (COVID-19). This disease is caused by a novel coronavirus termed as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). This work focuses on the applications of machine learning algorithms in the context of COVID-19. Firstly, regression analysis is performed to model the number of confirmed cases and death cases. Our experiments show that autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) can reliably model the increase in the number of confirmed cases and can predict future cases. Secondly, a number of classifiers are used to predict whether a COVID-19 patient needs to be admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU) or semi-ICU. For this, classification algorithms are applied to a dataset having 5644 samples. Using this dataset, the most significant attributes are selected using features selection by ExtraTrees classifier, and Proteina C reativa (mg/dL) is found to be the highest-ranked feature. In our experiments, random forest, logistic regression, support vector machine, XGBoost, stacking and voting classifiers are applied to the top 10 selected attributes of the dataset. Results show that random forest and hard voting classifiers achieve the highest classification accuracy values near 98%, and the highest recall value of 98% in predicting the need for admission into ICU/semi ICU units.

Background: Forecasting nonlinear stochastic systems most often is quite difficult, without giving in to temptations to simply simplify models for the sake of permitting simple computations. Objective: Here, two basic algorithms, Adaptive Simulated Annealing (ASA) and path-integral codes PATHINT/PATHTREE (and their quantum generalizations qPATHINT/qPATHTREE) are offered to detail such systems. Method: ASA and PATHINT/PATHTREE have been effective to forecast properties in three disparate disciplines in neuroscience, financial markets, and combat analysis. Applications are described for COVID-19. Results: Results of detailed calculations have led to new results and insights not previously obtained. Conclusion: These 3 applications give strong support to a quite generic application of these tools to stochastic nonlinear systems.

The article discusses issues related to the optimization of the operation of medium voltage networks, focusing on the optimization of network division points and the selection of the optimal network configuration aimed at reducing power and energy losses. The article provides a critical review of selected scientific works from recent years on the issue of network configuration optimization. The developed solution uses non-deterministic network models and statistical and probabilistic approaches. Optimization studies were carried out using heuristic optimization methods and proprietary algorithms for forecasting the load and power generated from renewable energy sources. The solution proposed in the article has many application possibilities. It can be used to optimize the location of network division points (reducing economic costs related to the modernization of network infrastructure) as well as to optimize the reconfiguration process in order to reduce power losses while maintaining voltage criteria.

(1) Background: It is crucial to provide safe and knowledgeable healthcare practices because no research has been done on the knowledge and usage patterns of NSAIDs among the Hail population. (2) Method: Structured questionnaires were utilized to gather data from 399 individuals in Hail, Saudi Arabia for the cross-sectional analysis. The study assessed participants' knowledge regarding NSAIDs, patterns of use, reasons for use, and awareness of potential side effects. (3) Results: In the study, the gender distribution indicated that 170 participants (42.61%) were male, while 229 (57.39%) were female. Gender, occupation, and marital status showed non-significant associations (p>0.01), except for menstrual cycle and joint pain, where marital status displayed significant associations. Age had significant associations with muscle pain, menstrual cycle, and joint pain (p<0.01). Education and monthly income exhibited non-significant associations for all the reasons. The regression analysis demonstrated that gender played a significant role, with females having higher odds of knowledge (AOR = 1.75, 95% CI 1.10-2.88) than males. Age also had a notable impact, with individuals aged 50-59 (AOR = 0.21, 95% CI 0.07-0.66) exhibiting lower odds of knowledge. Education holding a Ph.D (AOR = 3.50, 95% CI 0.54-22.51) and business as an occupation (AOR = 6.12, 95% CI 1.10-35.10) had significantly higher odds of knowledge while housewives (AOR = 0.76, 95% CI 0.25-2.27) had lower odds. Meanwhile, >50% of the participants had knowledge of adverse events related to the use of NSAIDs while 25% had no knowledge. Moreover, 59 (25.766%) participants reported discomfort with the use of NSAIDs. In addition, 50% and >75% of participants’ considered NSAIDs can cause peptic ulcers and damage kidneys, respectively (4) Conclusions: This study shed light on the knowledge and patterns of NSAIDs use in the population of Hail, Saudi Arabia. While NSAIDs are commonly utilized for pain management, there exists a need for improved public awareness regarding potential risks and safe usage practices. Healthcare providers and policymakers should consider these insights to develop targeted educational initiatives and healthcare interventions to promote safe and informed NSAID utilization in the region.

We propose a novel approach for time series forecasting with many predictors, referred to as the GO-sdPCA, in this paper. The approach employs a variable selection method known as the group orthogonal greedy algorithm and the high-dimensional Akaike information criterion to mitigate the impact of irrelevant predictors. Moreover, a novel technique, called peeling, is used to boost the variable selection procedure so that many factor-relevant predictors can be included in prediction. Finally, the supervised dynamic principal component analysis (sdPCA) method is adopted to account for the dynamic information in factor recovery. In simulation studies, we found that the proposed method adapts well to unknown degrees of sparsity and factor strength, which results in good performance even when the number of relevant predictors is large compared to the sample size. Applying to economic and environmental studies, the proposed method consistently performs well compared to some commonly used benchmarks in one-step-ahead out-sample forecasts.

Catheter-associated urinary tract infection (CAUTI) is one of the most common hospital-acquired infections (HAIs). Prolonged hospitalization, invasive devices such as catheters, and irrational use of antimicrobial agents are believed to be the major causes of high rates of HAIs. Infections such as pyelonephritis, urethritis, cystitis, and prostatitis are the main concern in catheterized ICU patients. In these cases, Gram-negative bacteria are the most common. The present study is undertaken to determine the frequency, antibiograms, disease pattern, and risk factors involved in providing an advocacy recommendation to prevent CAUTI. A total of 1078 patients were admitted to the hospital ICU, out of which healthcare-associated infection was reported in 316 patients. CAUTI was reported only in 70 patients. Klebsiella pneumoniae (20%) was the predominant isolate, with Serratia (3%) and Providencia (3%) species as the least common in this study. The present study provides CAUTI incidence rates in a tertiary care hospital in Hail, Saudi Arabia. Furthermore, information on risk factors of CAUTI common causative organism associated, and their antibiogram patterns are also presented. This study provides vital information that can be used to formulate an effective antibiotic stewardship program that can be implemented throughout the kingdom.

This study proposes a short- and medium-term electricity consumption prediction algorithm by combining the GRU model suitable for long-term forecasting and the Prophet model suitable for seasonality and event handling. (1) Manufacturing Company B's Electricity consumption data and meteorological data in Naju, Jeollanam-do, South Korea are collected and preprocessed. (2) The preprocessed data proposes the Prophet model in the first step for seasonality and event handling prediction. (3) In the second step, seven multivariate data are experimented with GRU. Specifically, the seven multivariate data consist of six meteorological data and the residuals between the predicted data from the proposed Prophet model in Step 1 and the observed data. These are utilized to predict electricity consumption at 15-minute intervals. (4) Electricity consumption is predicted for short-term (2 days and 7 days) and medium-term (15 days and 30 days) scenarios. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms the conventional Prophet model by more than 23 times and the modified GRU model by more than 2 times in terms of MAPE.

In this short communication, a concept has been presented to model geographical data to predict future temperature of Tabuk, region. Machine learning has been applied to the weather station data to develop a prediction model. The preliminary results are promising and encouraging and are envisaging to further this research towards the determination of unknown temperature rise in the region. This is important to mention here, that the problem has been formulated as a Regression problem, NOT as a classification problem. Hence, applying Convolutional neural networks is not possible, due to the non-existence of classes or converting the temperature values to classes does not make any sense. Hence, this is defined as a regression problem which achieved encouraging desirable results.

The proton exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC) is a critical and essential component of zero-emission electro-hydrogen generators. An accurate prediction of its performance is important for optimal operation management and preventive maintenance of these generators. However, the prediction is not simple because the PEMFCs have complex electrochemical reactions with multiple nonlinear relations between operating variables as inputs and voltage as output. In this paper, we propose an efficient prediction approach based on XGBRegressor and Tree-structured Parzen Estimator. In addition, to better select relevant features, Kernel Principal Component Analysis and Mutual Information are jointly used. The proposed approach allows consideration of the dynamic operating conditions of the PEMFC. To test and validate the robustness of the proposed approach, a real data-set of ten PEMFCs was considered. Furthermore, a comparison study with traditional machine learning models, such as artificial neural networks and support vector machine regression, was investigated. The obtained results confirm that our model outperforms the considered traditionel machine learning models.

We investigate the power of time series analysis based on a variety of information-theoretic approaches from statistics (AIC, BIC) and machine learning (Minimum Message Length) - and we then compare their efficacy with traditional time series model and with hybrids involving deep learning. More specifically, we develop AIC, BIC and Minimum Message Length (MML) ARMA (autoregressive moving average) time series models - with this Bayesian information-theoretic MML ARMA modelling already being new work. We then study deep learning based algorithms in time series forecasting, using Long Short Term Memory (LSTM), and we then combine this with the ARMA modelling to produce a hybrid ARMA-LSTM prediction. Part of the purpose of the use of LSTM is to seek capture any hidden information in the residuals left from the traditional ARMA model. We show that MML not only outperforms earlier statistical approaches to ARMA modelling, but we further show that the hybrid MML ARMA-LSTM models outperform both ARMA models and LSTM models.

The aim of this technical note is to describe the Cycle 46 reference configuration of the HARMONIE-AROME convection-permitting numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. HARMONIE-AROME is a configuration of the shared ALADIN-HIRLAM system, which is developed, maintained, and validated in the ACCORD consortium, a collaboration of 26 countries in Europe and northern Africa on short-range mesoscale NWP. This technical note describes updates to the physical parametrizations, both upper-air and surface, configuration choices such as lateral boundary conditions, model levels, horizontal resolution, model time step and databases associated with the model, such as for physiography and aerosols. An outlook on upcoming developments is also included.

Building electric energy is characterized by a significant increase of its uses (e.g. vehicle charging), a rapidly declining cost of all related data collection and a proliferation of smart grid concepts, including diverse and flexible electricity pricing schemes. Not surprisingly, an increased number of approaches have been proposed for its modeling and forecasting. In this work, we place our emphasis on three forecasting related issues. First, on the forecasting explainability, i.e. the ability to understand and explain to the user what shapes the forecast. To this extent we rely on concepts and approaches that are inherently explainable, such as the evolutionary approach of genetic programming (GP) and its associated symbolic expressions, as well as the so-called SHAP (SHapley Additive eXplanations) values, which is a well established model agnostic approach for explainability, especially in terms of feature importance. Second, we investigate the impact of the training timeframe on the forecasting accuracy; this is driven by the realization that a fast training would allow for faster deployment of forecasting in real life solutions. And third, we explore the concept of counterfactual analysis on actionable features, i.e. features that the user can really act upon and which therefore present an inherent advantage when it comes to decision support. We have found that SHAP values can provide important insights into the model explainability. As for GP models, we have found comparable and in some cases superior accuracy when compared to its neural-network and time-series counterparts but a rather questionable potential to produce crisp and insightful symbolic expressions, allowing a better insight into the model performance. We have also found, and report here on an important potential especially for practical, decision support, solutions of counterfactuals built on actionable features and short training timeframes.

Weather forecast has a big impact on the global economy, accurate and timely weather forecast is required by all, it affects many aspects of human livelihood and lifestyle, it also plays a critical role in decision making for severe weather management and for primary and secondary sectors like agriculture, transportation, tourism, and industry as they rely on good weather conditions for production and operations. The erratic and uncertain complex nature of the weather makes traditional weather forecasting tedious and a challenging task, traditional weather forecast involves applying technology and scientific knowledge on numerical weather prediction (NWP), and weather radar to solve complex mathematical equations to obtain forecasts based on current weather conditions. These traditional processes utilize expensive, complex physical and computational power to produce forecasts, which can be inaccurate and have various catastrophic impacts on society. In this research, a machine learning-based weather forecasting model was proposed, the model was implemented using 4 classifier algorithms which include Random Forest classifier, Decision Tree Algorithm, Gaussian Naïve Bayes model, and Gradient Boosting Classifier, these algorithms were trained using a publicly available dataset from Kaggle for the city of Seattle for the period 2012 to 2015. The model’s performance was evaluated; the Gaussian Naive Bayes algorithm proved to be the best performing algorithm with a predictive accuracy of 84.153 %.

Electricity demand forecasting has been a real challenge for power system scheduling in the different levels of the energy sectors. Various computational intelligence techniques and methodologies have been employed in the electricity market for load forecasting; although, scant evidence is available about the feasibility of each of these methods considering the type of data and other potential factors. This work introduces several scientific, technical rationale behind intelligent forecasting methods, based on the work of previous researchers in the field of energy. The fundamental benefits and main drawbacks of the aforementioned methods are discussed in order to depict the efficiency of each approach in various situations. In the end, a proposed hybrid strategy is represented.

Electricity demand forecasting has been a real challenge for power system scheduling in the different levels of the energy sectors. Various computational intelligence techniques and methodologies have been employed in the electricity market for load forecasting; although, scant evidence is available about the feasibility of each of these methods considering the type of data and other potential factors. This work introduces several scientific, technical rationale behind intelligent forecasting methods, based on the work of previous researchers in the field of energy. The fundamental benefits and main drawbacks of the aforementioned methods are discussed in order to depict the efficiency of each approach in various situations. In the end, a proposed hybrid strategy is represented.

Accurate electricity price forecasting has become a substantial requirement since the liberalization of the electricity markets. Due to the challenging nature of the electricity prices, which includes high volatility, sharp price spikes and seasonality, various types of electricity price forecasting models still compete and can not outperform each other consistently. Neural Networks have been successfully used in machine learning problems and Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) have been proposed to address time-dependent learning problems. In particular, Long Short Term Memory and Gated Recurrent Units (GRU) are tailor-made for time series price estimation. In this paper, we propose to use Gated Recurrent Units as a new technique for electricity price forecasting. We have trained a variety of algorithms with rolling 3-year window and compared the results with the RNNs. In our experiments, 3-layered GRUs outperformed all other neural network structures and state of the art statistical techniques in a statistically significant manner in the Turkish day-ahead market.

A 1-year prospective study was carried out on patients in the ICU unit at a tertiary care hospital, Hail, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. A total of 163 bacterial isolates were obtained from different clinical specimens with a high proportion of bacteria found associated with ventilator-associated pneumoniae (70, 43%), followed by catheter-associated urinary tract infection (39, 24%), central line-associated bloodstream infection (25, 15%), and surgical site infection (14, 8.6%). Klebsiella pneumoniae was the most common isolate (39, 24%), followed by Acinetobacter baumannii (35, 21.47%), Pseudomonas aeruginosa (25, 15%), and Proteus spp (23, 14%). Among the highly prevalent bacterial isolates, extended-spectrum beta-lactamase was predominant (42, 42.4%). Proper use of antibiotics, continuous monitoring of drug sensitivity patterns, and taking all precautionary measures to prevent beta-lactamases-producing organisms in the clinical settings are crucial and significant factors to fend off life-threatening infections and for a better outcome.

In this study, we have first studied the trend in meteorological data from the Harmaleh, Vanai and Farsesh stations in the 50-year period in the Dez catchment area. The meteorological data will be then forecasted using SWAT and Mann-Kendall. Forecasting the results in the Mann-Kendall and SWAT model has been done using the code written in MATLAB software and RCP (4.5, 8.5) scenarios, respectively. Studying the results of the trend in the data of meteorological stations in this catchment area indicated that these two parametric and non-parametric methods have been used to determine trends in meteorological data. The results of the parametric method are positive in all meteorological parameters. Non-parametric method over a period of 50 years shows the presence of trends in the data. The comparison on the forecasting results at maximum temperature suggested that during summer, we will see an increase in temperature compared to the ground state in all three forecasts. The results of the minimum temperature forecast show a decrease in the minimum increase during the winter and the precipitation forecast indicates that at the end of autumn (Nov) precipitation decreased by 20 mm in the Mann-Kendall and 4.5 RCP while RCP8.5 suggests the increase in precipitation compared to the ground state. Studying the runoff forecast results using SWOT show that at the end of winter (Feb) and almost all spring (Mar, Apr) a decrease of about 40%, 15% and 14% will be seen, respectively

This work focuses on short-term forecasting of PV output power. The multilayer perception (MLP), convolutional neural networks (CNN), and k-nearest neighbour (kNN) neural networks have been used singly or in a hybrid (with other algorithms) to forecast solar PV power or global solar irradiance with good success. Their performances in forecasting PV power have been compared with other algorithms but not with themselves. The study aims to compare performance of a number of neural network algorithms in solar PV energy yield forecasting under different weather conditions. The performance of MLPNN, CNN and kNN are being compared using solar PV (hourly) energy yield data for Grahamstown, Eastern Cape, South Africa. The choice of location is part of the study parameters to provide insight into renewable energy power integration in specific areas in south Africa that may be prone to extreme weather conditions. The kNN algorithm was found to have RMSE value of 4.95% and MAE value of 2.74% at its worst performance, and RMSE value of 1.49% and MAE value of 0.85% at its best performance. It outperformed the others by a good margin and kNN could serve as a fast, easy, and accurate tool to forecast solar PV output power.

Time series forecasting has been a challenging area in the field of Artificial Intel-ligence. Various approaches such as linear Neural Networks, Recurrent Linear Neural Networks, Convolutional Neural Networks and recently Transformers have been attempted for the time series forecasting domain. Although, Trans-former-based architectures have been outstanding in the Natural Language Pro-cessing domain, especially in autoregressive language modeling, the initial at-tempts to use transformers in the time series arena have met with mixed success. One of the recent papers demonstrated that modeling the multi-variate time se-ries problem as independent channels on a transformer architecture produced lower mean square and mean absolute errors on benchmarks, however, another recent paper claimed that a simple linear neural network out-performs previous approaches including transformer-based designs. We investigate this paradox in detail comparing the linear Neural Network and Transformer based designs, provide insights to why a certain approach may be better for a particular type of problem. We also improve upon the recently proposed simple linear Neural Network based architecture by using dual pipelines with batch normalization and reversible instance normalization. Our enhanced architecture outperforms all existing architectures for time series forecasting on majority of the popular benchmarks.

Modern countries generally deal with significant budget deficits and public debt. These countries need to rationalize their expenditures and increase revenue without major interference to economic flows. The aim of this paper is to create a model for forecasting public revenue and expenditure based on data from previous years. In the paper we formulated two hypotheses related to the validity of the set models. After detailed analysis, both hypotheses were accepted. The analysis includes all EU Member States and public revenue and expenditure data for the last decade. The significance of the analysis is reflected on the practical foundation of the pre-set theoretical views, which will have their basis in statistically significant results. By analyzing the model, we formulated the regression formulas of revenues and expenditures, which can be efficiently used in predicting these variables.

Retailers must have accurate sales forecasts to operate their businesses efficiently and effectively and to remain competitive in the marketplace. Global forecasting models like RNNs can be a powerful tool for forecasting in retail settings, where multiple time series are often interrelated and influenced by a variety of external factors. By including covariates in a forecasting model, we can better capture the various factors that can influence sales in a retail setting. This can help improve the accuracy of our forecasts and enable better decision-making for inventory management, purchasing, and other operational decisions. In this study we investigate how the accuracy of global forecasting models is affected by the inclusion of different potential demand covariates. To ensure the significance of the study's findings, we used the M5 forecasting competition's openly accessible and well-established dataset. The results obtained from the DeepAR models, which were trained on various combinations of features including time, price, events, and IDs, suggest that individually only the features corresponding to IDs improve the baseline model. However, when all the features are used together, the best performance is achieved, indicating that the individual relevance of each feature is emphasized when the information is given jointly. Comparing the model with features to the model without features, there is an improvement of 1.76\% for MRMSSE and 6.47\% for MMASE.

This paper applies a new artificial intelligence architecture, the Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT), for the joint GDP forecasting of 25 OECD countries at different time horizons. This new attention-based architecture offers significant advantages over other deep learning methods. First, results are interpretable since the impact of each explanatory variable on each forecast can be calculated. Second, it allows to visualize persistent temporal patterns and to identify significant events and different regimes. Third, it provides quantile regressions and permits to train the model on multiple time series from different distributions. Results suggest that TFTs outperform regression models, especially in periods of turbulence such as the COVID-19 shock. Interesting economic interpretations are obtained depending on whether the country is domestic demand-led or export-led growth. In essence, TFT is revealed as a new tool that artificial intelligence provides to economists and policy makers, with enormous prospects for the future.

Due to increase demand of food grain in the world, assessment of yield before actual production is important in making policies and decisions in agricultural production system. For a large area, forecast models developed from vegetation indices derived from remote sensing satellite data possesses the potential to give quantitative and timely information on crops over large areas. Different vegetation indices are being made used for this purpose, however, their efficiency in estimating crop yield is needed to be certainly tested. In this study, wheat yield forecast was derived by regressing ground truthing yield data against time series of spatial vegetation indices for the 2013 to 2019 growing seasons. These spatial vegetation indices derived from Landsat 8 image data: Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index (SAVI) were compared to evaluate the most appropriate index that performs better in forecasting wheat production at Karcag, Kunhegyes and Ecsegfalva settlements in Jász-Nagykun-Szolnok county, in the Northern Great Plain region of central Hungary. The best time for making wheat yield prediction with Landsat 8- SAVI and NDVI was found to be the beginning of ripening period (160th day of the year) with higher correlation between the vegetation indices and the wheat yield. The validation results revealed that the model from SAVI provides more consistent and accurate forecasts yield compared to NDVI. The SAVI model forecast yield for the validation years, 2018 and 2019 were within 6.00% and 4.41% of the final reported values while that of NDVI model were within 8.31% and 6.27%. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency index is positive with E1= 0.99 for the model from SAVI and for NDVI, E1=0.57, which connote that the forecasting method developed and evaluated performs acceptable forecast efficiency.

In recent years, transformer-based models have gained prominence in multivariate long-term time series forecasting (LTSF), demonstrating significant advancements despite facing challenges such as high computational demands, difficulty in capturing temporal dynamics, and managing long-term dependencies. The emergence of LTSF-Linear, with its straightforward linear architecture, has notably outperformed transformer-based counterparts, prompting a reevaluation of the transformer's utility in time series forecasting. In response, this paper presents an adaptation of a recent architecture termed extended LSTM (xLSTM) for LTSF. xLSTM incorporates exponential gating and a revised memory structure with higher capacity that has good potential for LTSF. Our adopted architecture for LTSF termed as xLSTMTime surpasses current approaches. We compare xLSTMTime's performance against various state-of-the-art models across multiple real-world datasets, demonstrating superior forecasting capabilities. Our findings suggest that refined recurrent architectures can offer competitive alternatives to transformer-based models in LTSF tasks, potentially redefining the landscape of time series forecasting.

Accurate seasonal weather forecasts are vital across a broad spectrum of applications, bearing significant environmental and socioeconomic implications. This importance renders the subject a matter of primary interest to a wide range of stakeholders, including the general public, agricultural sector, emergency responders, financial institutions, and policy strategists. The need for precision in long-term predictive models necessitates the development of innovative methodologies. These methodologies should be capable of deciphering atmospheric patterns and mechanisms with detail, especially at a local level, without the resource constraints that dynamical downscaling imposes. In response to this expanding demand, this study presents a novel solution, combining a stochastic deep learning methodology, specifically Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs), with a Digital Elevation Model (DEM). The cornerstone of the proposed model is the enhancement of gridded temperature fields from seasonal forecasts. The area of focus was the Hellenic region, wherein the spatial resolution is amplified from a coarse 1° x 1° grid to an impressively detailed 0.1° x 0.1° grid. This offers a transformative perspective for interpreting and employing this crucial meteorological data. The results suggest that the downscaled fields adequately approximate the actual spatial distribution, although the predicted values tend to slightly overestimate and in some cases underestimate the original ones. This study underlines the potential of this approach to significantly enhance the resolution and utility of weather forecasts, thereby contributing to a variety of sectors dependent on reliable meteorological data.

Real-world time series data sets contain a combination of linear and nonlinear patterns, making the time series forecasting problem more challenging. In this paper, a new hybrid methodology is introduced for forecasting univariate time series data sets using a multiplicative error modeling approach. An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model is combined with an autoregressive neural network (ARNN) for improving the predictions of individual forecast models. The proposed multiplicative ARIMA-ARNN model glorifies the chances of capturing the different combinations of linear and nonlinear patterns in time series. The model shows outstanding performance on six standard time-series data sets compared to other widely used single and hybrid forecasting models.

With an explosion of data in the nearly every domain, from physical and environmental sciences to econometrics and even social science, we have entered a golden era of time-domain data science. In addition to ever increasing data volumes and varieties of time-series, there's a plethora of techniques available to analyses them. Unsurprisingly, machine learning approaches are very popular. In environmental sciences (ranging from climate studies to space weather/solar physics), machine learning (ML )and deep learning (DL) approaches complement the traditional data assimilation approaches. In solar and astrophysics, multiwavelength time-series or lightcurves along with observations of other messengers like gravitational waves provide a treasure trove of time-domain data for ML/DL approaches for modeling and forecasting. In this regard, deep learning algorithms such as recurrent neural networks (RNNs) should prove extremely powerful for forecasting as it has in several other domains. Such methods agnostic of the physics can only predict transient flares that are represented in the original distribution trained on (eg. coloured noise fluctuations) and not special, isolated episodes (eg. a one-off outburst like a major coronal mass ejection) potentially distinguishing them. Therefore it is vital to test robustness of these techniques ; here we attempt to make a small contribution to this by exploring sensitivity of RNNs with some rudimentary experiments. We test the performance of a very successful class of RNNs, the Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) algorithms with simulated lightcurves. As an example, we focus on univariate forecasting of time-series (or lightcurves) characteristic certain variable astrophysical objects (eg. active galactic nuclei or AGN). Specifically, we explore the sensitivity of training and test losses to key parameters of the LSTM network and data characteristics namely gaps and complexity measured in terms of number of Fourier components. We find that typically, the performances of LSTMs are better for pink or flicker noise type sources. The key parameters on which performance is dependent are batch size for LSTM and the gap percentage of the lightcurves. While a batch size of $10-30$ seems optimal, the most optimal test and train losses are under $10 \%$ of missing data for both periodic and random gaps in pink noise. The performance is far worse for red noise. This compromises detectability of transients. Thus, we show that generative models (time-series simulations) are excellent guides for use of RNN-LSTMs in building forecasting systems

In this paper, we study the usage of machine learning models for sales time series forecasting. The effect of machine learning generalization has been considered. A stacking approach for building regression ensemble of single models has been studied. The results show that using stacking technics, we can improve the performance of predictive models for sales time series forecasting.

In this paper we develop a forecasting algorithm for recurrent patterns in consumer demand. We study this problem in two different settings: pull and push models. We discuss several features of the algorithm concerning sampling, periodic approximation, denoising and forecasting.

Spatial auto-regressive (SAR) models are widely used in geosciences for spatial analyses; their main feature is the presence of weight (W) matrices, which define the neighboring relationships between the spatial units. The statistical properties of parameter and forecast estimates strongly depend on the structure of such matrices. The least squares (LS) method is the most flexible and can estimate systems of large dimensions; however, it is not consistent in the presence of multilateral (sparse) matrices. Instead, the unilateral specification of SAR models provides triangular weight matrices which allow good statistical properties to LS and enable the implementation of sequential prediction functions. In this paper we show the better performance in out-of-sample forecasting of unilateral SAR and LS with respect to multilateral and maximum likelihood (ML) methods. This conclusion is supported by extensive numerical simulations and applications to real geological data, both on regular lattice and irregular polygonal form.

In Brazil, the production of corn and soybeans has been growing significantly in recent years. Considering that the strategies for investing in the production of these crops are conditioned by production costs and risk, the objective of this article is to propose a simulation model that indicates the trend of production costs for these commodities, considering the dispersion and correlation of selected key variable prices and corn and soybean production costs practiced between the years of 2018 and 2022. Fifty specialized companies in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil, provided data for this study, and Monte Carlo simulations showed that the total cost of corn production/ha is between USD 600.00 and USD 1150.00, with a level of certainty of 84.7%, and soybeans are in the range of USD 260.00 to USD 420.00, with a level of certainty of 86.4%. The model evidenced a trend of decreasing production costs for the crops for the 2023/24 and 2024/25 harvests, as the input with the greatest impact (fertilizer) is showing a downward trend. On the other hand, costs related to labor, soybean seed, and fungicides are showing an upward trend, while dolomitic limestone corrective remains stable.

This study involves the development of a hybrid forecasting framework that integrates two different models in a framework to improve prediction capability. Although the concept of hybridization is not a new issue in forecasting, our approach presents a new structure that combines two standard simple forecasting models uniquely for superior performance. Hybridization is significant for complex data sets with multiple patterns. Such data sets do not respond well to simple models, and hybrid models based on the integration of various forecasting tools often lead to better forecasting performance. The proposed architecture includes serially connected ARIMA and ANN models. The original data set is first processed by ARIMA. The error (i.e., residuals) of the ARIMA is sent to the ANN for secondary processing. Between these two models, there is a classification mechanism where the raw output of the ARIMA is categorized into three groups before they are sent to the secondary model. The algorithm is tested on well-known forecasting cases from the literature. The proposed model performs better than existing methods in most cases.

This paper explores the use of different deep learning models for predicting precipitation in 56 meteorological stations in Jilin Province, China. The models used include Stacked-LSTM, Transformer, and SVR, and Gaussian noise is added to the data to improve their robustness. Results show that the Stacked-LSTM model performs the best, achieving high prediction accuracy and stability. The study also conducts variable attribution analysis using LightGBM and finds that temperature, dew point, precipitation in previous days, and air pressure are the most important factors affecting precipitation prediction, which is consistent with traditional meteorological theory. The paper provides detailed information on the data processing, model training, and parameter settings, which can serve as a reference for future precipitation prediction tasks. The findings suggest that adding Gaussian noise to the dataset can improve the model's generalization ability, especially for predicting days with zero precipitation. Overall, this study provides useful insights into the application of deep learning models in precipitation prediction and can contribute to the development of meteorological forecasting and applications.

Coastal wave modeling and forecasting are essential in oceanography, sustainable marine energy, and ocean engineering. Precise forecasting of wave speed and direction are crucial for offshore operations, marine energy, risk management, environmental management, coastal and sustainable maritime management. The coastline of Brunei Darussalam can generate between 15 and 126 Giga Watt of wave energy. In this experimental research, we used two numerical approaches, the finite difference, and spectral element methods, to model and simulate wave speed and direction. We calculated the mean error between numerical and analytical solutions. We proposed a novel, promising, univariate time series forecasting model by combining the Long Short-Term (LSTM) with KerasTuner hyperparameters tuning and optimization techniques. This method helps us to improve the accuracy and efficiency of time-series forecasting.. The experimental data was computed from high-precision Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) sensor data. This research is part of the preliminary feasibility analysis of wave energy production in Brunei Darussalam and net zero commitment for a sustainable environment. Seven independent forecast experiments were performed for wave speed and direction in degree and radian units for 1, 3, 6, 8, 10, 12, and 24 hours. Mean squared error (MSE) was adopted as a metric for both training and testing. The experimental results reveal that the wave speed forecast has the lowest MSE compared to direction, regardless of the unit of measure, but has a longer duration. In addition, the direction forecast in the degree unit has the lowest errors compared to the unit of radians; the latter has a longer running time than the former. The model has delivered optimal results throughout the experiments with minor training and test errors. We conducted a thorough evaluations on two benchmark time series datasets, which include the study dataset and air quality index dataset, to validate the performance of the proposed model with other models. The proposed model outperforms cutting-edge forecasting models, such as the conventional LSTM, ARIMA, and Prophet. The model has the slightest forecast error compared to the existing literature’s result.

A 3-month (June-August) regime of the year 2002 summer rainfall (JJA2002) was simulated with 30 physics combinations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at 12-km horizontal grid resolution. The objective is to examine summer rainfall sensitivity to parameterization of microphysical, convective, and boundary layer processes and identify the best possible combination of parameterization options that perform relatively better in simulating the spatial and temporal distribution of summer rains over Ethiopia. The WRF simulated rainfall was evaluated against station data and satellite rainfall products (CHIRPS and ENACTS) using mean absolute error, Pearson and Pattern correlation coefficients (PCC), pattern correlation, and error in a number of rainy days as evaluation metrics. Summer rainfall is found to be most sensitive to the choice of cumulus parameterization and least sensitive to cloud microphysics. All simulations captured the spatial distribution of mean seasonal precipitation with PCC ranging from 0.89-0.94. However, all simulations overestimated precipitation amount and number of rainy days. Out of the 30, the simulations that use a combination of Grell-3D cumulus scheme, ACM2 boundary layer, Lin Microphysics, Dudhai shortwave radiation, and RRTM longwave radiation scheme ranked the top and provided the most realistic simulation in terms of amount and spatio-temporal distribution of summer rainfall.

Cold chain logistics of Agricultural Products demand forecasting can provide the scientific basis for the country to formulate logistics strategy, which further promotes the development of social economy and the improvement of living standards in China. In this paper, a new mathematical combined model is proposed to Agricultural Products Demand. Shandong, one of a China’s province, serves as the main producer and distributor of agricultural products. Based on the index system created from multiple related factors influencing cold chain logistics demand of agricultural products in Shandong, this paper employs principal component analysis to reduce the dimension of various indexes and predicts principal components with time series. Thereafter, multiple linear regression model and neural network model were constructed to forecast the cold chain logistics demand of agricultural products in Shandong, and their combined forecast models were compared. What's more, the paper provides insight for reference and decision-making concerning the development of cold chain logistics industry of agricultural products in Shandong province.

This study aims to assess the potential of the LDAS-Monde a land data assimilation system developed by Météo-France to monitor the impact of the 2018 summer heatwave over western Europe vegetation state. The LDAS-Monde is forced by the ECMWF’s (i) ERA5 reanalysis, and (ii) the Integrated Forecasting System High Resolution operational analysis (IFS-HRES), used in conjunction with the assimilation of Copernicus Global Land Service (CGLS) satellite derived products, namely the Surface Soil Moisture (SSM) and the Leaf Area Index (LAI). Analysis of long time series of satellite derived CGLS LAI (2000-2018) and SSM (2008-2018) highlights marked negative anomalies for July 2018 affecting large areas of North Western Europe and reflects the impact of the heatwave. Such large anomalies spreading over a large part of the considered domain have never been observed in the LAI product over this 18-yr period. The LDAS-Monde land surface reanalyses were produced at spatial resolutions of 0.25°x0.25° (January 2008 to October 2018) and 0.10°x0.10° (April 2016 to December 2018). Both configuration of the LDAS-Monde forced by either ERA5 or HRES capture well the vegetation state in general and for this specific event, with HRES configuration exhibiting better monitoring skills than ERA5 configuration. The consistency of ERA5 and IFS HRES driven simulations over the common period (April 2016 to October 2018) allowed to disentangle and appreciate the origin of improvements observed between the ERA5 and HRES. Another experiment, down-scaling ERA5 to HRES spatial resolutions, was performed. Results suggest that land surface spatial resolution is key (e.g. associated to a better representation of the land cover, topography) and using HRES forcing still enhance the skill. While there are advantages in using HRES, there is added value in down-scaling ERA5, which can provide consistent, long term, high resolution land reanalysis. If the improvement from LDAS-Monde analysis on control variables (soil moisture from layers 2 to 8 of the model representing the first meter of soil and LAI) from the assimilation of SSM and LAI was expected, other model variables benefit from the assimilation through biophysical processes and feedbacks in the model. Finally, we also found added value of initializing 8-day land surface HRES driven forecasts from LDAS-Monde analysis when compared with model only initial conditions.

Smart grids require flexible data driven forecasting methods. We propose clustering tools for bottom-up short-term load forecasting. We focus on individual consumption data analysis which plays a major role for energy management and electricity load forecasting. The two first sections are dedicated to the industrial context and a review of individual electrical data analysis. We are interested in hierarchical time-series for bottom-up forecasting. The idea is to disaggregate the signal in such a way that the sum of disaggregated forecasts improves the direct prediction. The 3-steps strategy defines numerous super-consumers by curve clustering, builds a hierarchy of partitions and selects the best one minimizing a forecast criterion. Using a nonparametric model to handle forecasting, and wavelets to define various notions of similarity between load curves, this disaggregation strategy applied to French individual consumers leads to a gain of 16\% in forecast accuracy. We then explore the upscaling capacity of this strategy facing massive data and implement proposals using R, the free software environment for statistical computing. The proposed solutions to make the algorithm scalable combines data storage, parallel computing and double clustering step to define the super-consumers.

Lightning is responsible for most annually burned area by wildfires in the extratropical region of the Northern Hemisphere. Hence, predicting the occurrence of wildfires requires reliable forecasting of the chance of cloud-to-ground lightning strikes during storms. Here, we describe the development and verification of a probabilistic lightning-strike algorithm designed to run on a uniform 20-km grid over the Continental USA and Alaska. The algorithm consists of a large set of logistic equations parameterized via logistic regression using long-term data records of observed lightning strikes and meteorological reanalysis fields from NOAA. Principal Component Analysis was employed to extract 13 Principal Components (strong predictors) from a list of 611 potential predictors. Our statistical analysis revealed that the occurrence of cloud-to-ground lightning strikes primarily depends on three factors: horizontal temperature distribution by pressure levels, amount of low-level atmospheric moisture, and wind vectors. These physical variables impact the vertical separation of electric charges in the lower troposphere during storms causing the voltage potential between ground and the cloud deck to increase to a level that triggers electrical discharges. Results from a forecast verification using independent data showed excellent model skill, thus making this algorithm suitable for inclusion into software systems forecasting the chance of wildfire ignitions.

Lake Malombe fish stocks have been depleted by chronic overfishing. Various management approaches (co-management, command control, and ecosystem-based management to fisheries) have been used to manage the fishery. However, the lack of an accurate predictive model has hampered their success. Therefore, we developed and tested a time series model for Lake Malombe fishery. The seasonal fish biomass and CPUE trends were first observed and both were non-stationary. The second-order differencing was applied to transform the non-stationary data into stationary. Autocorrelation functions (AC), partial autocorrelation function (PAC), and Akaike information criterion (AIC) were estimated, which led to the identification and construction of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models, suitable in explaining the time series and forecasting. The results showed that ARIMA (1,2,1) provided a better prediction than its counterparts. The model satisfactorily predicted that by 2032, both fish biomass and CPUE will decrease to 3204.6 tons and 59.672 respectively, signifying the potential threat to Lake Malombe fishery. The model justified the necessity of taking precautionary measures to avoid the total collapse of the fishery.

In this paper, we investigate the proftability of investing in movies for retail investors, focusing on the return on investment (ROI) metric, which is calculated as revenue divided by budget. Our analysis encompasses 5000 movies from the movie database TMDB, examining factors such as production scale, genres, key actors, directors, and more. Additionally, we employ textual analysis techniques like Latent Semantic Analysis (LSA) on movie overviews and tags to incorporate movie themes. We then evaluate various supervised classifcation models including Logistic Regression, Random Forest, and Light Gradient Boosting (LightGBM), comparing their performance. Our fndings highlight the signifcance of production scale, team structure, and movie themes in identifying potential high-return opportunities for investors.

PM-Gati-Shakti Initiative, integration of ministries, including railways, ports, waterways, logistic infrastructure, mass transport, airports, and roads. Aimed at enhancing connectivity and bolstering the competitiveness of Indian businesses, the initiative focuses on six pivotal pillars known as "Connectivity for Productivity": comprehensiveness, prioritization, optimization, synchronization, analytical, and dynamic. In this study, we explore the application of these pillars to address the problem of "Maximum Demand Forecasting in Delhi." Electricity forecasting plays a very significant role in the power grid as it is required to maintain a balance between supply and load demand at all times, to provide a quality electricity supply, for Financial planning, generation reserve, and many more. Forecasting helps not only in Production Planning but also in Scheduling like Import / Export which is very often in India and mostly required by the rural areas and North Eastern Regions of India. As Electrical Forecasting includes many factors which cannot be detected by the models out there, We use Classical Forecasting Techniques to extract the seasonal patterns from the daily data of Maximum Demand for the Union Territory Delhi. This research contributes to the power supply industry by helping to reduce the occurrence of disasters such as blackouts, power cuts, and increased tariffs imposed by regulatory commissions. The forecasting techniques can also help in reducing OD and UD of Power for different regions. We use the Data provided by a department from the Ministry of Power and use different forecast models including Seasonal forecasts for daily data.

Fluctuating stock prices make it difficult for investors to see investment opportunities. One tool that can help investors overcome this is forecasting techniques. Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) is one of deep learning methods used in forecasting time series. The training and success of deep learning is strongly influenced by the selection of hyperparameters. This research uses a hybrid method between the Genetic Algorithm (GA) and LSTM to find a suitable model for predicting stock prices. GA is used in optimizing the architecture such as the number of epochs, window size, and the number of LSTM units in the hidden layer. Tuning optimizer is also carried out using several optimizers to achieve the best value. From method that has been applied, it shows that the method has a good level of accuracy with MAPE values below 10% in every optimizer used. The error rate generated is quite low, in case-1 with a minimum RMSE value of 93.03 and 94.40, & in case-2 with an RMSE value of 104.99 and 150.06 during training and testing. A fairly stable and small value is generated by setting it using the Adam Optimizer.

The prediction of wind power output is part of the basic work of power grid dispatching and energy distribution. At present, the output power prediction is mainly obtained by fitting and regressing the historical data. The medium- and long-term power prediction results exhibit large deviations due to the uncertainty of wind power generation. In order to meet the demand for accessing large-scale wind power into the electricity grid and to further improve the accuracy of short-term wind power prediction, it is necessary to develop models for accurate and precise short-term wind power prediction based on advanced algorithms for studying the output power of a wind power generation system. This paper summarizes the contribution of the current advanced wind power forecasting technology and delineates the key advantages and disadvantages of various wind power forecasting models. These models have different forecasting capabilities, update the weights of each model in real time, improve the comprehensive forecasting capability of the model, and have good application prospects in wind power generation forecasting. Furthermore, the case studies and examples in the literature for accurately predicting ultra-short-term and short-term wind power generation with uncertainty and randomness are reviewed and analyzed. Finally, we present prospects for future studies that can serve as useful directions for other researchers planning to conduct similar experiments and investigations.

Dissolved Oxygen (DO) concentration is a vital parameter that indicates water quality. DO short term forecasting using time series analysis on data collected from an aquaculture pond is presented here. This can provide data support for an early warning system for an improved management of the aquaculture farm. The conventional forecasting approaches are commonly characterized by low accuracy and poor generalization problems. In this article, we present a novel hybrid DO concentration forecasting method with ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) based LSTM (Long short-term memory) neural network (NN). With this method, first, the sensor data integrity is improved through linear interpolation and moving average filtering methods of data preprocessing. Next, the EEMD algorithm is applied to decompose the original sensor data into multiple intrinsic mode functions (IMFs). Finally, the feature selection is used to carefully select IMFs that are strongly correlated with the original sensor data and integrate both into inputs for the NN. The hybrid EEMD-based LSTM forecasting model is then constructed. Performance of this proposed model in training and validation sets was compared with the observed real sensor data. To obtain the exact evaluation accuracy of the forecasted results of the hybrid EEMD-based LSTM forecasting model, three statistical performance indices were adopted: MAE, MSE, and RMSE. Results presented for short term (12-hour period) and long term (1-month period) give a strong indication of suitability of this method for forecasting DO values.

The observed data of COVID-19 progression in Pakistan for first 50 days from the first patient been reported has shown quite an unusual trend which is in opposition to clear exponential spread pattern of any infectious disease. The data of positive cases of 50 days of disease progression has been collected from COVID-19 dashboard of Pakistan and analyzed to see the graphical trend and to forecast the behaviour of disease progression for next 30 days. Mathematical equations regarding exponential growth are used to analyse the disease progression and different possible trajectories are plotted to understand the approximate trend pattern. The possible projections estimated 20k-456k positive cases within 80 days of disease spread in Pakistan. Although, the disease progression pattern is not perfectly exponential, it is still threatening a major fraction of susceptible population and demands effective strategic planning and control.

The primary attraction of IaaS is providing elastic resources on demand. It becomes imperative that IaaS-users have an effective methodology for learning what resources they require, how many resources and for how long they need. However, the heterogeneity of resources, the diversity resource demands of different cloud applications and the variation of application-user behaviors pose IaaS-users big challenge. In this paper, we purpose a unified resource demand forecasting model suiting for different applications, various resources and diverse time-varying workload patterns. With the model, taking input from parameterized applications, resources and workload scenarios, the corresponding resources demands during any time interval can be deduced as output. The experiments configure concrete functions and parameters to help understanding the above model.

Copper demand for a country's copper industry has a greater pull effect. China's copper consumption in 2015 has accounted for 50% of the world. The scientific forecast of China's copper demands trend is also an important basis for analyzing its future environmental impact. This paper assumes that China's economy will be developing high, medium and low scenarios, and forecasts economic and social indicators such as total GDP, population and per capita GDP in China from 2016 to 2030. Then, predicted the demand of copper resources in China from 2016 to 2030 by the combination of system dynamics model, vector autoregressive moving average model and inverted U-type empirical model. The results show that: (1) in 2020, 2025 and 2030, China's refined copper demand will be 13 Mt, 15 Mt and 15.5 Mt. (2) China's copper demand growth slowed down significantly from 2016-2030. (3) 2025-2030, China's copper resource demand is stable, into the platform of demand growth, the highest peak value in 2027 will be 15.5 Mt. (4) 2030 years later, China's copper resource demand will enter a slow decline.

Accurate streamflow forecasting is crucial for effectively managing water resources, particularly in countries like Colombia, where hydroelectric power generation significantly contributes to the national energy grid. Although highly interpretable, traditional deterministic, physically-driven models often suffer from complexity and require extensive parameterization. Data-driven models like Linear Autoregressive (LAR) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks offer simplicity and performance but cannot quantify uncertainty. This work introduces Sparse Variational Gaussian Processes (SVGPs) for forecasting streamflow contributions. The proposed SVGP model reduces computational complexity compared to traditional Gaussian Processes, making it highly scalable for large datasets. The methodology employs optimal hyperparameters and shared inducing points to capture short-term and long-term relationships among reservoirs. Training, validation, and analysis of the proposed approach consider the streamflow dataset from 23 geographically dispersed reservoirs recorded during twelve years in Colombia. Performance assessment reveals that the proposal outperforms baseline Linear Autoregressive (LAR) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models in three key aspects: adaptability to changing dynamics, provision of informative confidence intervals through Bayesian inference, and enhanced forecasting accuracy. Therefore, the SVGP-based forecasting methodology offers a scalable and interpretable solution for multi-output streamflow forecasting, thereby contributing to more effective water resource management and hydroelectric planning.

One of the most important sources of energy is the sun. Taiwan is located at north 22-25° latitude. Due to its proximity to the equator, it experiences only a small angle of sunlight incidence. Its unique geographical location which can obtain sustainable and stable solar resources. This study takes research on the forecast of solar radiation to maximize the benefits of solar power generation, and develops methods that can predict the future solar radiation pattern to help reduce the costs of solar power generation. This study builds supervised machine learning models, known as deep neural network (DNN) and long short-term memory neural network (LSTM). The hybrid supervised and unsupervised model, namely cluster-based artificial neural network (k-means clustering and fuzzy C-means clustering-based models), was developed. After establishing these models, the study evaluated their prediction results. For different prediction periods, the study selected the best-performing model based on the results and proposed combining them to establish a real-time updated solar radiation forecast system capable of predicting the next 12 hours. The study area covered Kaohsiung, Hualien, and Penghu in Taiwan. Data from ground stations of the Central Weather Administration, collected between 1993 and 2021, as well as the solar angle parameters of each station, were used as input data for the model. The results of this study show that different models have their advantages and disadvantages in predicting different future times. Therefore, the hybrid prediction system can predict future solar radiation more accurately than a single model.

An important indicator of human-related pollution in watersheds is dissolved oxygen (DO). The DO is highly dependent on both space and time characteristics of the watershed and is directly linked to eutrophication, which impairs the development of both the aquatic fauna and flora, also negatively impacting the water quality. Aspiring to reach a more accurate and precise forecasting approach to predict levels of DO, the present work proposes new graph-based and transformer-based deep learning models. The models were trained and validated for the Credit River Watershed, and the results were compared with both benchmarking and literature-found approaches. The proposed Graph Neural Network Sample and Aggregate (GNN-SAGE) model was the best-performing approach, reaching coefficient of determination (R2) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) values of 97% and 0.34 ppm, respectively. The findings from the Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) indicated that the GNN-SAGE benefited from spatiotemporal information from the surrounding stations, improving the model’s results, and that temperature is a major input attribute for determining future DO levels. The results established that the proposed GNN-SAGE model stands as a state-of-the-art solution for DO forecasting, with potential for real-time water quality applications.

The evolution of some epidemics, as influenza, shows common patterns both in different regions and from year to year. On the contrary, epidemics like the novel COVID-19 show quite heterogeneous dynamics and are extremely susceptible to the measures taken to mitigate their spread. In this paper we propose empirical dynamic modeling to predict the evolution of influenza in Spain’s regions. It is a non-parametric method that looks into the past for coincidences with the present to make the forecasts. Here we extend the method to predict the evolution of other epidemics at any other starting territory and we test also this procedure with Spanish COVID-19 data. We finally build influenza and COVID-19 networks to check possible coincidences in the geographical distribution of both diseases. With this, we grasp the uniqueness of the geographical dynamics of COVID-19.