EUROPEAN COMMISSION JOINT RESEARCH CENTRE Institute for Prospective Technological Studies Seville

PUBLIC TRANSPORT IN PERSPECTIVE

Authors: MJ Richards* PA Barham* PR Oxley* * Centre for Logistics and Transportation School of Management Cranfield University

May 1998

EUR 18112 EN

IPTS Technical Report Series May 1998

Contents

Executive summary Preliminary 1. Introduction 2. Identification of recent trends 2.1 Introduction 2.2 Trends in travel since 1970 2.3 Understanding the trends 2.3.1 Increasing private car use 2.3.2 The use of buses 2.3.3 The use of rail 2.4 Increasing journey length 2.5 A comparison of contrasting cities 2.6 Conclusions 3. Moving towards change 3.1 Introduction 3.2 The private car and change 3.3 Assessing transport initiatives : broad view 3.4 Assessing transport initiatives : a more detailed view 3.5 Case studies in assessing transport initiatives 3.5.1 Case study : Park and Ride, Oxford, England (1975 to present 3.5.2 Case study : The AA Carshare campaign, Basingstoke, England (1990) 3.5.3 Case study : Flexible Working Hours - changes to the structure of the working week 4. Initiatives in land based transport 4.1 Measures likely to promote a reduction in car use 4.2 Measures likely to promote an increase in car use 5. Some recent and current relevant EC research 5.1 CAPTURE 5.2 MOVE 5.3 SCOPE 5.4 RHAPIT 6. The future for public transport and the automotive industry 6.1 Trends and forecasts of car use 6.2 Trends and forecasts of public transport use 6.3 Future scenarios for inland surface transport 7. Summary and conclusions 8. Critique and problems

IPTS Technical Report Series May 1998

Executive summary The study aims to give a picture of recent trends in car and public transport in Europe and to supply some explanation as to why they occurred. Initiatives have been identified which can improve land-based transport by encouraging people to travel by public, rather than private, transport. Trends in seven EU countries, the USA and Japan have been investigated. Between 1970 and the early nineties, travel per capita in Europe has increased steadily with rates of between 1.5% and 3.5% per annum. Travel by car/taxi per capita has increased at a faster rate (between 2% and 5%). Figures of the early 1990s indicate a levelling off in most countries but the Netherlands and the USA. Spain, Sweden and the Netherlands show an increasing use of bus/coach travel, in particular since 1980, whereas the UK has seen a progressive and continuous decline. The main factors behind the extensive growth in private car ownership and use are not only the desire to travel door-to-door with maximum flexibility. The absence of adequate, alternative, public transport; rising personal disposable incomes; changes in land use; patterns of facilities and housing; coupled with changes in lifestyle and declining real costs of car ownership have contributed to this increase. Categorising cities across the world into five groups, on a scale ranging from very high car dependence to very low car dependence, shows a strong difference between them related to their land use and population characteristics. Adapting and reshaping of passenger transport as it occurs, is often a slow and laboured response to changes in attitudes, norms and values of experts, planners and decision makers. Momentums build and changes evolve in their wake. In order to comment on the nature of the changes that are likely to take place, the strengths and direction of these momentums must be assessed. A simple set of largely qualitative assessment questions (a toolkit), by which future transport initiatives could be crudely assessed, is proposed. Five questions are at the core of the toolkit: The nature of the initiative: what else does it provide? Who will take up the initiative? At what point does the initiative make the most impact? What are the effects of the initiative? What potential is there to repeat the initiative?

The use of these assessment steps is illustrated in three case studies: a park & ride scheme, a car sharing campaign and the four-day working week. Finally, the study attempts to forecast the future development of the use of the car and public transport. Government figures for the UK for instance forecast a traffic level (vehicle-km) in 2025 of between 157% and 187% of the 1994 level. However, such government forecasts, based on anticipated changes in economic growth, incomes,

IPTS Technical Report Series May 1998

fuel prices and public transport provision, are criticised on the basis that they cannot anticipate as yet unspecified changes of a determinedly radical nature. The authors see clear and consistent messages coming from the sources they have studied. Increased use of the private car is destined to occur within the foreseeable future, and the problems this will cause necessitate a search for proven successful combinations of initiatives to slow down and halt this momentum. Due to the different context conditions, the real effects of public transport enhancements can only be appreciated by monitoring actual initiatives, in cities throughout Europe. The effective transfer of best-practice is judged more important than making a prediction based on uncertainties.

IPTS Technical Report Series May 1998

Preliminary With the publication of the Commissions Green Paper The Citizens Network the importance of tackling the sustainability problem of personal mobility at the European level has been highlighted. Soon after, the IPTS got involved in research related to the Task Force The Car of Tomorrow. We were charged with looking beyond the private car and to explore different pathways that could potentially lead out of the mobility maze. In this context a number of state-of-the-art studies were commissioned by the IPTS. This study, which was concluded in March 1996, looks at public transport in particular. It has been produced by researchers of the Cranfield Centre for Logistics & Transportation which has been working in this field for many years. To understand the success and failure of public transport initiatives a thorough look has to be taken at the local level. The specific implementation environment, its particular circumstances and history being of great importance. Finding out about, and learning from good practice, however, is a process which should be encouraged and strengthened at the European level.

Christian Heller Seville, April 1998

IPTS Technical Report Series May 1998

1. Introduction This study aims to give a picture of recent trends in car and public transport in Europe and supply some explanations as to why they have developed. We attempt to identify initiatives which currently are being considered and implemented in the world, aimed at improving land based transport, particularly with a view to encouraging people to travel by public, rather than private transport. We identify some relevant recent and current research directed towards encouraging public transport use. The study concludes with some discussion on future likely trends.

2. Identification of recent trends 2.1 Introduction We have sought to present a picture of trends in land based travel from 1970 to the present. Due to time lags in collecting, organising and disseminating data, the most recent data we have to hand are 1992/1993 figures. This is unavoidable, but a little unfortunate in that there are indications of disturbances to long set trends since 1990. The sample of European countries chosen is Belgium France Great Britain Italy Netherlands Spain Sweden and to allow a further comparison, Japan and the USA have also been examined. The basis for choosing the above European countries was that they appear to represent a fair cross section of Europe and that data available was largely complete and free from awkward complications. In such a short study, we can only seek merely to be illustrative and relevant rather than comprehensive and definitive. The data source was International Comparison of Transport Statistics, 1970-1992 (Department of Transport, 1994).

IPTS Technical Report Series May 1998

2.2 Trends in travel since 1970 The data distinguish between car/taxi, bus/coach and rail modes and measure travel in passenger km. The main findings for the countries studied are travel in total per capita (all modes) in Europe has increased steadily at average rates of between 1.5% and 3.5% per annum from 1970 to 1990 : the period 1990 to 1992 shows indications of a leveling off in some countries, notably Belgium, Great Britain and Japan, but that these are not indicative of a prolonged reduction in growth

travel by car/taxi per capita in Europe has increased at a faster rate per annum (on average between 2% and 5%) from 1970 to 1990 : the indications of a leveling off appear over the period 1990 to 1992 and involve all but the Netherlands and the USA travel by bus/coach reveal quite different trends : Spain, Sweden and the Netherlands have shown increasing use of this form of travel, particularly since 1980, whereas in Great Britain the decline in use has been progressive and continuous since 1970 travel by rail (not including metro travel) : Sweden shows an average annual decline of 2.1% over the period 1980 to 1992 whilst the Netherlands and Italy show the largest average annual increases (4.7% and 1.7%) over the period The graphs on which these findings are based are presented at the end of this document. With regard to reviewing trends in urban and inter-urban transport separately, statistics to permit this were not readily to hand for the EC. DRI Europe (1994) includes the following comments in describing the public transport sector : Reliable estimates for the sector are sparse...... Use of urban transport has declined substantially between 1989 and 1991......21 billion passenger journeys to 15 billion .....impact on passenger kilometers was similar. National bus and coach services fared better than urban transport, managing growth between 1989 and 1991 of almost 50 billion passenger kilometers to reach just 350 billion . ...in urban and suburban public transport services, buses account for about 60% of passenger trips...... commuter rail or local train 18%.....underground railway 13%...... light rail 7%.....

IPTS Technical Report Series May 1998

2.3 Understanding the trends 2.3.1 Increasing private car use The demand for extensive private mobility, arising from the desire to travel door to door with maximum flexibility, the absence in some countries of adequate alternative public transport and rising real personal disposable incomes have been the main factors behind the extensive growth in private car ownership and use. This has meant that growth in passenger road use has been largely in private cars. Substantial excise duties on fuel prices have barely influenced car ownership and car use as the user perceives the additional incremental cost as minuscule compared to the improvement in mobile efficiency. (DRI Europe, 1994) The reasoning that, in the UK, (which has the highest share of private car use) increasing income has gone hand in hand with increasing car ownership allowing the car use habit to slowly build from an initial luxury usage into the perception of car use as well nigh essential is detailed carefully in the study Car Dependence : A Report for the RAC Foundation for Motoring and the Environment. (TSU Oxford, 1995). In part to alleviate the growing problems of overcrowding and congestion, countries have proceeded to spend in recent years between 1 and 2 % of GDP on roads and in the process increase total road length by around 1% per annum (see Table 2.1 below), although there are considerable differences.

Table 2.1 : Road length increases and expenditure Period from 1980 to 1989 1993 1993 1991 1992 1992 1993 Total road length: increase per year 0.09% 1.10% 1.11% 0.27% 1.11% 0.48% 0.04% GDP spent on roads 1980 2.0% 0.9% 0.6% 1.5% GDP spent on roads(latest) 2.0% 1.0% 0.7% 1.2%

Belgium France UK Italy Netherlands Spain * Sweden

(Source : 1995 Annual Bulletin of Transport Statistics for Europe and North America, United Nations publication) (*road length increase 9.86% if minor roads are included) The superficial reasons for increasing car use would appear therefore to be the desire for more personally efficient mobility and the continuing affordability of car travel ( a point which is illustrated in Section 2.3.2).

IPTS Technical Report Series May 1998

As an example of the car use habit building - consider the change in travel to school in the UK over the last twenty years : Table 2.2 : Travel to school in Aylesbury area, UK Mode Rail Bus Car Cycle Walk Other 1975/6 % 0.8 19.9 10.6 4.0 64.3 0.4 1986/7 % 0.7 20.0 15.7 3.5 59.5 0.6 1990 % 0.0 20.2 20.0 1.3 58.6 0.0 1993 % 0.0 18.0 34.0 0.0 48.0 0.0

(Source : Thornthwaite, 1994)

2.3.2 The use of buses It is tempting to postulate that change here is also reflected in both the affordability and efficiency of the bus services provided. Whilst no emphasis has been placed on collecting evidence to support this, a comparison of Great Britain with its decline in bus usage and Spain with its increase would support the idea that fares might be one influence. In the period from 1986 to 1991, an assumption that revenue per operating bus did not change would have implied that the per kilometer price for bus travel in Great Britain increased by 9% in real terms, whereas in Spain it fell by nearly 8% in real terms. These figures are based on calculations from ridership and bus/coach stock figures from the source of Table 1.1. However, changes in the efficiency and use of smaller buses, identify a need for a closer examination than this. Bus and coach statistics in GB, 1993/94 (Department of Transport, 1995) shows figures for the change in real terms of motoring costs and rail and bus fares. Between 1986 and 1991 the real costs of travel by bus did in fact increase by about 7%. The decline of bus use in favour of increasing car use in GB is consistent with the relative change in the costs of using these modes, as this source shows. A fall in real costs of car use of around 4% is paralleled by an increase in bus use costs of around 14% over the ten year period from 1983.

IPTS Technical Report Series May 1998

2.3.3 The use of rail For the EC as a whole, we quote from DRI Europe (1994) that Rail passenger traffic has remained relatively constant over the last decade, growing at an average 0.7% per annum since 1980. Rail competes with other modes....car, bus ...air for some passenger routes..... Increased private car ownership, with the concomitant ability of car drivers and passengers being able to travel door to door without changing mode has affected passenger rail traffic negatively. And further , with regard to the Netherlands .....the plan is to privatise Dutch railways in 2000. The Dutch railways expect passenger traffic to double by the year 2010 and have been investing in equipment and infrastructure improvements to meet the current growth in demand and future requirements. It is here worth noting that the Netherlands is the most densely populated EC country (favouring efficient rail use) and that motorway congestion costs on Dutch motorways have doubled over the last 10 years (Kinnock, 1995). 2.4 Increasing journey length Potter (1995) reveals in his study of Travel in Great Britain using National Travel Survey data that increases in passenger kilometers travelled are due not to the number of journeys people make (this has remained virtually static for the last twenty years), but longer journeys : average journey length has increased 36% (from 7.3 to 9.9 km). Much of this is due to a 26% increase in middle distance journeys (between 8 and 40 km). Everyday journeys that were previously very local (under 3 miles or so) are now regularly 5 to 10 miles long and surging on to the long distance trunk and motorway networks. These long term trends are associated with a variety of travel generating trends in our society, including changes in land use, patterns of facilities and housing, coupled with (partly related) lifestyles changes, rising car ownership and declining real costs of car use. Largely, these are very deep seated causes.

IPTS Technical Report Series May 1998

2.5 A comparison of contrasting cities Our original intention was to seek data describing contrasting travel patterns in a set of cities and look towards some understanding of the causes of these differences. Newman and Kenworthy (1989) in their book Cities and Automobile Dependence : An International Source Book have undertaken a wide study in this area. The data presented in Tables 2.3 and 2.4, extracted from this source, gives a good indication of what they have attempted and found. In Table 2.3 (Transport patterns in the worlds major cities) large differences are in evidence, for example, the percentage of total travel using public transport, which in the European cities studied, varied from 17% in Hamburg to 32% in West Berlin. The study produced a categorisation of cities across the world into five groups on a scale ranging from very high car dependence/ very low public transport, walking or cycling to very low car dependence, with public transport, walking and cycling more important than cars. In Table 2.4 (Transportation and land use characteristics and the co-existence of transportation modes in principal world cities), the categorisation demonstrates very clearly that very wide differences exist in the travel patterns in different cities and that there are strong links with the land use and population characteristics of the cities. They conclude from the links established between car dependence, public transport use and land use density and population density measures, that ......if a city were going to try and lower its gasoline and automobile dependence then it would need to consider : increasing its land use intensity increasing the orientation of its transport infrastructure to non-automobile modes increasing its level of constraint to high speed traffic flow increasing its degree of centralisation increasing its public transport performance . In a recent paper The Potential for the Application of Policies to Influence Urban Car Travel Demand, Newman and Kenworthy (1995) again stress the need for a combined and integrated strategy approach and provide some examples of successful cities, for example Freiberg, Germany, in maintaining a low level of car use. In anticipating future travel patterns in Europe, a closer examination of data of this type, particularly if more recent figures could be added, could be helpful in establishing bounds for what would appear achievable in reducing car dependence, particularly since there is considerable evidence elsewhere in this study that population densities are decreasing, which mitigates against the reduction of car dependence.

IPTS Technical Report Series May 1998

Table 2
City

Transport patterns in the worlds major cities (1980)

Gasoline use (MJ per capita) Total vehicles (per 1000 people) Car ownership (per 1000 people) Private car (passenger kms per capita) Public transport (passenger kms per capita) Private car/public transport balance (% of total passenger kms on public transport) Public transport vehicle kms of service per person Public transport passenger trips per person Proportion of public transport passenger kms on trains (%) Proportion of workers using public transport Proportion of workers using private transport Proportion of workers using foot or bicycle

(%) (%) (%)

US Cities Houston Phoenix Detroit Denver Los Angeles San Francisco Boston Washington Chicago New York Average Australian Cities Perth Brisbane Melbourne Adelaide Sydney Average Canadian City Toronto European Cities Hamburg Frankfurt Zrich Stockholm Brussels Paris London Munich West Berlin Copenhagen Vienna Amsterdam Average Asian Cities Tokyo Singapore Hong Kong Average USSR City Moscow

74,510 69,908 65,978 63,466 58,474 55,365 54,185 51,241 48,246 44,033 58,541 32,610 30,653 29,104 28,791 27,986 29,829 34,813 16,671 16,093 15,709 15,574 14,744 14,091 12,426 12,372 11,331 11,106 10,074 9,171 13,280 8,488 6,003 1,987 5,493 380

797 689 691 853 667 681 557 645 518 459 656 614 595 528 568 489 559 554 382 427 432 390 408 383 356 398 306 296 374 342 375 267 155 66 163 40

603 499 594 666 542 543 465 561 445 412 533 475 458 446 475 412 453 463 344 387 375 347 361 338 288 360 269 246 311 308 328 156 65 42 88 20

15,968 13,170 14,017 11,630 13,865 13,200 12,570 11,670 11,122 7,856 12,507 11,477 11,721 10,128 10,625 9,450 10,680 9,850 7,470 6,810 7,254 6,570 5,706 4,199 4,452 5,235 4.572 6,231 4,262 4,441 5,595 2,993 1,789 615 1,799 230

128 66 112 218 384 926 518 616 971 1,285 522 592 745 779 655 1,511 856 1,976 1,516 1,713 2,157 2,124 1,396 1,827 1,717 1,592 2,159 1,657 1,828 1,801 1,791 5,191 1,942 2,043 3,059 >4,262a

0.8 0.5 0.8 1.8 2.7 6.6 4.0 5.0 8.0 14.1 4.4 4.9 6.0 7.1 5.8 13.8 7.5 16.7 17.0 20.1 22.9 24.4 19.7 30.3 27.8 23.3 32.1 21.0 30.0 28.9 24.8 63.4 52.1 76.9 64.1 >95

9 7 17 25 27 50 26 40 42 58 30 53 48 53 51 77 56 81 80 55 62 119 54 47 120 75 83 110 69 74 79 94 98 116 103 >131

15 9 26 27 59 115 80 91 115 122 66 71 79 95 83 142 94 178 248 306 363 302 266 259 284 307 395 201 313 345 299 472 353 466 430 >678

0.0 0.0 2.7 0.0 0.0 33.9 52.3 37.2 66.7 78.0 27.1 14.4 55.8 63.1 33.5 69.9 47.3 40.2 64.4 51.3 55.6 60.4 43.2 83.8 63.7 61.1 58.3 48.0 26.6 45.5 55.1 94.9 0.0 17.1 37.3 >75

3.3 2.2 4.1 6.5 7.7 17.0 16.1 14.1 18.3 28.3 11.8 12.0 16.6 20.6 16.5 29.5 19.0 31.2 41.0 19.0 34.0 46.0 26.7 39.8 39.0 42.0 37.0 31.0 44.9 14.0 34.5 59.0 59.6 62.2 60.3 74.0

93.9 94.6 93.1 88.1 88.0 77.5 74.1 80.7 75.5 63.6 82.9 84.0 78.1 73.7 77.7 65.1 75.7 63.0 43.9 54.0 45.0 34.0 57.7 36.4 38.0 38.0 48.0 36.8 40.4 58.0 44.2 16.1 24.6 3.3 14.7 2.0

2.8 3.2 2.8 5.3 4.2 5.5 9.8 5.2 6.2 8.1 5.3 4.0 5.3 5.7 5.8 5.4 5.2 5.8 15.3 27.0 21.0 20.0 15.6 23.8 23.0 20.0 15.0 32.2 14.7 28.0 21.3 24.9 15.8 34.5 25.1 24.0

Note a) Moscow commuter rail data are missing

10

IPTS Technical Report Series May 1998

Table 3
Factors and variables

Transportation and land use characteristics and the co-existence of transportation modes in principal world cities (1980)
Class 1 - Very high automobile dependence almost no role for public transport, walking or cycling, very high gasoline use 12.2 6.0 10.7 4.3 23.7 19.5 684 539 12,822 362 2.9 8.6 87.2 4.2 8.8 514 91 1,068,875 14.2 0.3 11.4 29.6 46.1 1.5 24.0 2.12 13.3 Very poor Class II - High automobile dependence, minor though significant role for public transport, walking and cycling, high gasoline use 15.4 7.3 12.8 5.0 45.1 37.2 570 479 11,359 887 7.4 19.3 74.4 6.3 5.7 208 105 1,364,838 45.6 0.7 15.0 47.9 106.3 2.3 31.3 1.13 53.9 Generally poor but a few positive features 44,355 Cluster scores 255 302 310 349 357 361 Class III - Moderate automobile dependence, important role for public transport, walking and cycling moderate gasoline use 42.1 23.9 32.8 12.5 81.7 65.4 422 367 7,384 1,664 18.6 32.0 51.7 16.3 3.0 160 159 1,723,132 78.7 1.5 18.4 74.1 229.6 3.3 30.8 0.88 54.9 Significant conservation Glass IV - Low automobile dependence, public transport, walking and cycling equal with cars, low gasoline use 58.0 32.9 48.7 18.8 83.0 67.1 366 318 5,185 1,890 27.2 33.3 45.4 21.3 1.9 185 193 1,725,693 89.2 3.9 20.7 86.6 324.3 3.9 30.9 0.58 51.0 Stronglyy conserving Class V - Very low automobile dependence, public transport, walking and cycling more important than cars, very low gasoline use 117.3 53.9 83.9 28.5 331.4 211.3 254 192 2,966 2,519 49.2 52.5 23.7 23.8 1.1 137 247 1,665,405 158.6 3.9 19.8 86.1 371.4 4.4 31.5 0.52 51.4 Very strongly conserving

Category of city Land use intensity Urban density (persons/ha) Employment density (jobs/ha) Outer area density (persons/ha) Outer area employment density (jobs/ha) Inner area density (persons/ha) Inner area employment density (jobs/ha) Orientation to non-automobile modes Total vehicles per 1000 people Cars per 1000 people Per capita car passenger kms Per capita public transportation passenger kms Proportion of passenger kms on public transportation (%) Proportion of workers using public transportation (%) Proportion of workers using private transportation (%) Proportion of workers using foot or bicycle (%) Level of traffic restraint Length of road per person (m) Parking spaces per 1000 CBD jobs Vehicles per km of road Car kms per km of road Degree of centralisation CBD population density (persons/ha) Proportion of population in CBD (%) Proportion of jobs in CBD (%) Public transportation performance Vehicle kms per person Passenger trips per person Passenger trips per vehicle km System average speed (km/h) Energy use per passenger km (M) Proportion public transport passenger kms on trains (%) Transportation energy conservation status

Gasoline use per capita (MJ) Cities in each category and their cluster scores based on all factors

Cities Pheonix Houston Denver Detroit Perth Adelade Los Angeles Brisbane

53,049 Cluster scores 92 95 145 151 168 208 221 223

Cities Washington Melbourne Boston Chicago San Francisco Sydney

Cities Toronto New York Copenhagen Hamburg Zrich Brussels

22,846 Cluster scores 433 464 496 549 567 570

Cities Amsterdam Frankfurt West Berlin Vienna London Stockholm

12,445 Cluster scores 574 585 598 605 612 614

Cities Munich Singapore Paris Hong Kong Tokyo

8,588 Cluster scores 641 643 648 694 721

11

IPTS Technical Report Series May 1998

2.6 Conclusions

A study aimed at carefully comparing the trends in different countries presents considerable problems of data compilation, compatibility and interpretation. The outcome could certainly be of interest. We are, however, inclined to the view that plausible explanations which might result are only likely to be of limited value, serving to indicate only the broadest of directions which future policy could take, and affording considerable scope for arguing alternatives. We therefore believe a more profitable approach is to focus more directly on change and how changes are likely to be brought about.

12

IPTS Technical Report Series May 1998

3. Moving towards change 3.1 Introduction Change and the reshaping of the future of passenger transport as it occurs is an often slow and laboured response to changes in attitudes, norms and values of experts, planners and decision makers. Public and media attitudes and calls for change and criticisms of options for change are also involved. So too is research. Momentums build and changes evolve in their wake. In order to comment on the nature of the changes that are likely to take place, the strengths and directions of these momentums must be assessed. In a study of this brevity, it is not really feasible to attempt this. Rather than attempt to do so, we focus on the ever increasing use of the private car and the progressive development of the culture of car dependence in Europe. We attempt to guide comment on schemes and options for change, from a perspective view : that brakes must be applied to reduce (if not reverse) car dependence culture momentums. For an example of a study which seeks to investigate attitudes to change (and which reveals how differerent sections of the population in Great Britain exhibit differences in their attitudes to change) refer to Taylor and Stokes (1995).

3.2 The private car and change Travel is dominated by the pattern of car use. A solid appreciation of car use, car dependence and a more detailed and sensitive look at what influences mode choice is clearly vital. In following this line, we have made considerable use of the research described in a recent major study Car Dependence : A Report for the RAC Foundation for Motoring and the Environment, undertaken by the Transport Studies Unit, Oxford University [TSU, Oxford (1995)..for convenience this will subsequentlty be referred to as the RACFME report]. The aim of this study was to ....analyse the current social and economic dependence on the car and the ways in which travelers budget their income, time and other resources, in order to develop a better understanding of the motivations for car use and the scope for substituting alternative forms of access. (The main focus of the study was the UK, but involved American, Dutch and international data). We have attempted to build from the perspectives, concepts and models this and other studies contain, a simple set of largely qualitative assessment questions (a toolkit) by which future transport initiatives could be crudely assessed.

13

IPTS Technical Report Series May 1998

3.3 Assessing transport initiatives : broad view The RACFME report concludes by viewing car trips (and car dependence) on a spectrum ranging from essential trips which can only feasibly be made by car through to trips which are at the very margin of essentiality and which anyway could be easily accomplished without recourse to a car, i.e. a spectrum ranging from constrained to unconstrained car usage. As a guide when considering policy aimed at reducing car usage, it concludes that the best policies to pursue are those which appear to target the unconstrained end of the spectrum, arguing that these are the ones that are likely to attract the least resistance and to be the most successful. It is important to incorporate this view into appraisals of innovative public transport systems and control and constraint measures, enabling comment on the degree to which such a scheme is focused on what is achievable in reducing car usage. Further comment on the potential and impact on car and public transport and the number of opportunities to introduce it in Europe will require consideration, in order that a view of the potential significance of the scheme in a European context emerges.

Appraisals of options in transport are framed around a careful assessment of estimated cost and benefits. Whilst this is essential in any appraisal, of greater concern here are questions of a longer term nature, seen to be bound inextricably with car use and car dependence. These are then are the basic questions : Does (and in the future will) the scheme provide advantage to public transport users and could-be public transport users ? Does (and in the future will) it fit well alongside other schemes aimed at providing such advantage ? (If it aims to add advantage to private car users)Is the advantage largely directed to dependent car use and unlikely to add to the momentum towards increasing car use and dependence ? Lest it be felt that this perspective is too anti car, it is clear that for the foreseeable future all public transport policy considerations will occur within a context of the desirability to reduce the dependence on the car. It is worth quoting from the RACFME report : One of the signs of an idea whose time has come is that it arises as a conclusion from widely different starting points. It is remarkable how disparate are the channels through which serious concern is expressed about trends in traffic and car use. Reports on global environmental change and local environmental damage, health effects of noxious emissions, obesity due to lack of exercise, problems in the development of independence among children, perceived and actual danger on the streets, waste of economic resources in congestion, problems of the commercial viability of town centres, difficulties in arranging for the efficient distribution of goods, and frustrated expectations of personal mobility - all tend to point to the unsustainability of current trends, and have revived interest in the important roles to be played by the long undervalued modes of walking, cycling and public transport, and by the recently unfashionable idea of strategic land use planning.
14 IPTS Technical Report Series May 1998

3.4 Assessing transport initiatives : a more detailed view We attempt to list and categorise key points in assessing initiatives. The concern is more with the resultant impact of an initiative in shifting towards public transport and away from private car use. Thus cost benefit and equity considerations are not of primary interest. It follows that socio-economic characteristics of travelers are not of primary interest either. This a very crude framework. Initially, it had been in mind to introduce some quantitative aspects, but this proved too daunting. The case study on Park and Ride (see Section 3.5.1) indicates how this could be approached. It has become clear through awareness of the CAPTURE project (see Section 5.1) that this is a subject of recognised and considerable importance, and the conclusions of the CAPTURE on assessment and transferability of results work should be very valuable. For the purposes of this study and the initiatives described in later sections, the following should be borne in mind : 1.The nature of the initiative : what extra does it provide ? new spatial accessibility more capacity higher frequencies money savings better quality better information and decision making opportunity 2. Who will take up on the initiative ? commuters, shoppers, travelers for other reason car user, public transport user the short ,medium or long distance traveler urban/suburban/rural dweller age and position within household 3. When does the initiative make most impact ? days of week peak / off-peak travel times

15

IPTS Technical Report Series May 1998

A consideration of the above should allow some assessment to be made . The RACFME Report, in referring to earlier research, considers the application of a framework for viewing how initiatives might cause change to come about, based on three processes : conventional short term elasticity effects life shock and life cycle effects renewal of the population The first is an obvious response to a change offering immediately perceived advantage. The second occurs when a change of habit is unavoidable as a result of a significant event occurring in life (an accident, change of home or job). The third occurs through a new generation growing up with different attitudes and behaviour patterns to the generation it replaces. With such a framework in mind, the assessment of the impact of an initiative could be summarised : 4. Effects of initiative Immediate effect on users : Short term mode switching Long term effect on car dependent and non car dependent groups : Longer term mode switching Effects on car ownership Effect on land use Contribution to momentums encouraging attitude change Finally, an appraisal of the extent to which the initiative could be introduced elsewhere in similar situations : this is an aspect that will be examined in the CAPTURE project (see Section 5.1) in a series of practical studies in follower cities, which will look to see how lessons learned from prime cities would apply in the follower cities. 5. Similar scenarios : potential for repeats of initiative Determine where similar scenarios exist Eliminate scenarios where public attitudes and norms would be too anti.

3.5 Case studies in assessing transport initiatives We briefly present three case studies as examples to illustrate the use of the assessment steps described above.

16

IPTS Technical Report Series May 1998

3.5.1 Case study : Park and Ride, Oxford, England (1975 to present) Description Oxford is city with a population of around 133000 and serves as a regional shopping and entertainment centre for a population of around half a million people. The park and ride scheme in operation consists of buses operating from four car parks, 2-5 km distant from the centre. It operates six days per week. A very rough estimate of the typical number of passenger kilometers per week in 1993 would be 200000 to 250000, which , if related to the population figures above, would suggest an average use of between 0.4 and 2 km per week for the population it might be thought to serve. Source The development of park and ride in Oxford (J.Cramer, Oxford City Council). Paper presented to Chartered Institute of Transport, Luton, 1994 (Cramer (1994) ).

Generalisation, comment and assessment Scenarios Medium size towns and cities (where the bus ride to the centre is short) with problems of centre congestion. Effect on car dependence It seems unlikely that park and ride would have a strong influence on the car ownership decision. It could be argued that in as much as it has the effect of getting car users onto buses, it wider influence is helpful in reducing car dependent attitudes. There is some genuine concern that it may also be encouraging car use as preferable to longer distance bus trips, by removing the unwelcome congested part of the drive and the subsequent struggle to find a central parking spot. The overall impact on car use would be small. A scheme such as the above could reduce the average annual car passenger km figure for those who could be regarded as having access to it by less than 0.5%. Effect on other modes It could however be argued that it provides a significant opportunity for the bus industry, in that, in the case of the above scheme, the average bus passenger km figure for those who could be regarded as having access to it, is likely to be around 5% higher as a result of the scheme.

17

IPTS Technical Report Series May 1998

Compatibility with other initiatives Park and ride fits well alongside other measures aimed at reducing town centre car use, for example, pedestrianisation, road pricing, car parking space restriction, bus priority measures.

Overall impact and potential Appears to have a valuable role in reducing town centre car use. It is not clear whether the overall impact of such schemes on car use and car dependent attitudes is helped or not. Schemes do after all require car and bus use. Assessment summary What does it provide ? -Accessibility, money and quality gains Who will it involve ? -all purpose (shopper Saturdays), car user, suburban/rural, short/medium distance When does it make most impact ? -weekday peaks, Saturday peak/normal Effects of initiative ? -uncertain effect on car dependence Similar scenarios ? -many

18

IPTS Technical Report Series May 1998

3.5.2 Case study : The AA Carshare campaign, Basingstoke, England (1990) Description In 1990, The Automobile Association launched a campaign amongst its own staff at its head office in Basingstoke, Hampshire, where approximately 1680 people are employed. At the same time, the AA carried out a detailed study of the journey-towork behaviour and patterns of its own staff, involving 6700 members of staff located at various AA offices in Great Britain. The Carshare campaign, which encouraged employees to drive to work with a colleague, was part of the companys general aim to reduce dependency on cars for commuting.

Source Travelling to work (Public Policy Department, The Automobile Association, June 1992).

Generalisation and comment Scenarios The car sharing scheme proposed by the AA is one which could be encouraged by any employer. In fact, the decision to share a car with a colleague or neighbour commuting to the same, or similar, location, and sharing travel costs, is one which could be taken by any individual. The rle of the company in such a scheme can be to provide encouragement for such initiative, and to provide the means of communication between employees (eg. noticeboards, designating a member of staff to be the coordinator for the scheme etc.). Main intended benefits The main benefit to the individual of car sharing is an obvious saving in travel costs; driving ones own car half as often will clearly halve ones non-fixed costs (eg. fuel, parking charges, tolls etc.). A common counter-argument to switching from the private car to Public Transport is that, as a car owner, one constantly has the burden of fixed costs such as tax, insurance and depreciation, so that these should be considered when comparing the cost of, say, a train fare with car running costs; it is very rare for a Public Transport mode to undercut the cost of the car when these fixed costs are taken into consideration, which makes the savings from car sharing seem all the more attractive. Others might cite the opportunity to work during their journey-to-work as the most attractive feature of car sharing, especially now that lap-top computers and in-car telephones are widely used. This option is not available to the lone driver, who might spend up to three totally unproductive hours of the day behind the wheel of his/her car. Each person who shares a car will also benefit indirectly from the consequent global reduction in traffic congestion. Similarly, the reduction in the number of cars on the road will bring other benefits for the environment; as well as enjoying these benefits directly (through breathing cleaner air etc.), those involved in
19 IPTS Technical Report Series May 1998

car sharing schemes can also derive satisfaction from taking part in an environmentally friendly initiative. Benefits for the environment, such as reduced pollution, fuel consumption and congestion, are clearly the main advantages to society of car sharing. One incentive for companies to encourage the practice is the opportunity to ease pressure on car parking space at the workplace, which is often considerable. A less congested journeyto-work might also improve punctuality of, and reduce the stress experienced by, employees. The AA might also have considered the advantages of good Public Relations when initiating the Carshare campaign; since its rle is primarily to promote the use of what is generally thought of as an environmentally unfriendly means of transport, it is important for the AAs public image that it is seen to take the lead in any initiative that might make the private car greener. Main constraints and limitations The main obstacle to car sharing is the very nature of the car itself - to many people the car is part of their private, personalised space. Independence, privacy and flexibility are very much the essence of car driving, and are among the main advantages of travelling by car. For many drivers, therefore, the notion of sharing this space with someone else - particularly a stranger - would be unattractive, particularly to those who value the opportunity to make telephone calls and enjoy in-car entertainment in the comfort of their own home. The success of car sharing is also dependent to a large extent on participants starting and finishing work at the same time, and doing so almost every day. Unfortunately, a large proportion of those who drive to work on a regular basis do so in a company car, or will receive some other help with travel costs from their employer; such an arrangement suggests that their job is likely to involve irregular journey patterns and flexible working hours, so that car sharing is not a practical proposition. Ironically, initiatives such as flexitime and staggered working hours, which are themselves often introduced to reduce congestion and pollution at peak times, actually discourage car sharing. Even for people whose working day is rather more structured, factors such as days off for sickness and holidays might disrupt a car sharing arrangement. Options for stimulating change Even in environments where car sharing would appear to be feasible and costeffective, there is still the problem of inertia - people become accustomed to travelling to work by car, accept the delays and other irritations involved, and rarely, if ever, consider alternatives. What is needed is a positive stimulus either to discourage them from driving altogether, or to provide an incentive for using an alternative means of transport. The issue of measures to actively discourage car use can be sensitive. One means of doing this, however, is to ration car parking space at the place of work, but a consequence of this is often an increase in illegal and offensive parking nearby, which exacerbates the problem of congestion. There is probably more scope for offering

20

IPTS Technical Report Series May 1998

incentives to drivers to not travel alone, by introducing discounts at tolls or by providing dedicated traffic lanes for cars containing two or more occupants. Governments might also play a rle in changing peoples journey-to-work habits through information and publicity. To make any significant impact on travel behaviour, however, a fairly aggressive and widespread campaign would need to be launched to portray the practice of driving alone as being thoroughly anti-social. The effect of car sharing on car use in the future The AAs survey of its own employees revealed that 39% of respondents already gave a colleague a lift to work on an occasional basis, whilst 22% did so more often than once a week; these percentages should be set alongside the 40% of regular drivers who said that they never give lifts. Scope for a large-scale car sharing scheme at the AA was, however, apparently quite limited, for some of the reasons outlined above. One of these was the fact that flexible working hours are quite common within the organisation, and only 22% of respondents stated that their departure time virtually never varied. In any case, enthusiasm among the staff for a car sharing scheme appears to have been rather limited, with 72% of respondents saying that they would not be interested. Nevertheless, the AAs Carshare scheme was set up as a pilot project. There were some successes, but these appear to have been outweighed by instances of failure, either because of a lack of flexibility on the part of one of the potential sharers, or because respondents who had expressed an interest in sharing could not be suitably matched with another volunteer. On balance, the schemes steering group decided that, due to the relatively low level of interest shown in car sharing, active promotion of the scheme should not continue. It is difficult to draw firm conclusions from the results of a single pilot scheme, but the AAs experience illustrates the difficulties that might be faced by any company keen to promote car sharing. The Associations flexible working hours arrangement is certainly not uncommon in the UK, but the factor that is likely to inhibit the growth of car sharing schemes the most is drivers reluctance to share what they regard as their private, personal space with others. For this reason, in spite of the obvious cost savings that can be made and the ease with which such an initiative can be taken, it appears that car sharing is not likely to substantially affect congestion and pollution levels in the foreseeable future. Looking further ahead, it is possible that other potential changes in the motoring environment - such as road-pricing, considerable increases in fuel costs, worsening congestion on the road etc. - might change attitudes sufficiently to make car sharing on a major scale a viable proposition.

21

IPTS Technical Report Series May 1998

Assessment summary What does it provide ? - quality change, disadvantages and advantages, money savings Who will it involve ? - existing car commuters (fixed working hour employers) When does it make most impact ? - weekday peaks Effects of initiative ? - immediate reduction of car use, none on car ownership Similar scenarios ? - many

22

IPTS Technical Report Series May 1998

3.5.3 Case Study : Flexible working hours - changes to the structure of the working week. Description. One simple measure that would have a significant effect on congestion levels if introduced on a large scale is a change to, say, a four-day week. This would entail working four ten-hour days in a week instead of five eight-hour days, for instance, with employees at a given location not necessarily having the same week-day off. As part of a wider travel-to-work survey of its own employees, The Automobile Association posed the question of whether a four-day week would be feasible. Source. Travelling to work (Public Policy Department, The Automobile Association, June 1992).

Generalisation and comment. Scenarios. The decision to work a four-day week is one which is technically feasible for almost any firm, or for any individual within a firm, although there might be limitations for some grades of staff, or in certain circumstances, as discussed below. Main intended benefits. In simple terms, this would mean that there would be, on average, a 20% reduction in the number of people converging on, and leaving, the relevant place of work on any particular day, and the ten-hour working-day would, in any case, mean that employees would avoid the worst of the morning and/or evening peak rush hour. Such a change would therefore bring reductions in pollution, congestion, fuel consumption and pressure on scarce parking facilities. (It is possible, of course, that employees on their day off might still drive their car for shopping or leisure purposes etc., but there would still be substantial gains in reducing traffic levels in places and at times that are currently very congested.) The AAs survey of its own staff members revealed that there were 81% who thought that an extra day off from work would be the main advantage of four-day working, but there were also some who mentioned savings in travel costs (41 per cent) and the avoidance of traffic queues (31 per cent).

23

IPTS Technical Report Series May 1998

Main constraints and limitations. A major obstacle to the adoption of this idea might be the fact that it represents a rather radical change to working practices, and many employers might hesitate to examine the possibility in detail. For many firms, it would be impractical, because of requiring the particular skills or knowledge of key members of staff on a daily basis; this, constraint would apply far less to unskilled/manual grades than to managerial/executive personnel. Four-day working might also entail a fundamental change to the lifestyle and routine of the individual, and is likely to appeal to some people more than others. In response to the AAs survey of its employees, 74% said that it would certainly be a feasible option, whilst only 10% said that it was definitely not possible for them; 84% of the sample said they would consider making the change if it were formally proposed. It is interesting to note the comments that were made as to perceived disadvantages of four-day working - 31% felt that a ten-hour day would be rather tiring, whilst others cited less social contact and (somewhat illogically) less free time as drawbacks. The effect of four-day working on car use in the future. The fact that a sector of the working population travelled to and from work on four days instead of five would not affect car ownership, nor would it affect car dependency. The effect of the change would be to substantially reduce the total number of journeys to work made at peak times, so easing the pressure exerted on scarce road- and parking-space in locations that are currently worst affected. The impact on the modal split between Public Transport and the private car is, in fact, most likely to be in favour of the latter; since congestion would be reduced with no reduction in the number of people who drive to work, it is reasonable to assume that the car will become a more attractive means of transport, which can only do harm to Public Transport patronage. Assessment summary What does it provide ? - time budget savings, money savings Who will it involve ? - commuters by all modes When does it make most impact ? - weekday peaks Effects of initiative ? - immediate reduction of travel (all commuter modes), none on car ownership Similar scenarios ? - many

24

IPTS Technical Report Series May 1998

4. Initiatives in land based transport We list measures and initiatives which have and are likely to continue to receive attention as having potential for improving land based travel. 4.1 Measures likely to promote a reduction in car use Measures encouraging public transport use More light railways and metros Bus priority schemes Better design vehicles (for example, low floor buses) Cheaper fares Fare concessions (for example, pensioners and students) Better information Video camera monitoring Tickets for multi-stage and multi-mode travel Season tickets Electronic purse tickets Employer encouragement (for example, providing subsidised tickets) Measures discouraging car use Pedestrian streets Bus only streets Traffic calming and speed restrictions Slow down of new road building Restricting parking space Increasing parking fees Car occupancy restrictions / incentives Road pricing / tolls Increasing fuel tax and vehicle tax Removal of company car tax advantages Working hours (4 day week, working at home) Tele-shopping Drinking and driving laws Fitness tests for the elderly Car pooling (see Section 3.5.2) Community car sharing schemes

25

IPTS Technical Report Series May 1998

Measures encouraging other modes Health awareness (encourage walking and cycling) Pedestrian facilities Cycling facilities Cycle hire and share Taxi season tickets

4.2 Measures likely to promote an increase in car use Measures discouraging public transport use Reducing staff (lack of help, feeling vulnerable) Fragmentation (interchanges involving more than one company) The drive to cut costs generally Measures encouraging car use Driving aids for the elderly and disabled Informational telematics Nicer cars Cheaper car running costs and leaner engines Out of town shopping Garage facilities (new house have garages, often for two cars) Land use in favour of the car

26

IPTS Technical Report Series May 1998

5. Some recent and current relevant EC research The current programme, to be carried out under DGV11-E, Development of Transport Policy - Research and Development, is described formally in the document Research, Technological Development and Demonstration Programme in the Field of Transport, Additional Information Papers, Revision December 1995. We briefly describe here some projects which have very close relevance.

5.1 CAPTURE : Cars to Public Transport in the Urban Environment CAPTURE is a major European demonstrator of transport policy strategies using physical measures designed to encourage public transport, with the aim of producing modal shift from private cars, and restrict car access in sensitive urban areas in favour of public transport, cycling and walking. Cities cooperating in the project are committed to introducing a wide variety of measures to attract people from cars to public transport. Before and after monitoring will allow a study of their effectiveness and the project will devote resources into generalising the results to allow the transferability of results to other urban areas. The consortium has access to databases from earlier EC research - APAS Urban 3 database (300 references of world-wide city initiatives to improve public transport use) and APAS 1 Urban database (a Pan European survey of public transport prioritisation measures). One of the early tasks will be to survey a much wider sets of cities to understand the nature of the different problems and needs that exist, and to discover what measures have been taken to encourage a shift from cars to public transport and the degree of success that has been the measures have achieved. The project ( for the DGV11 Transport Directorate) is just underway and will last for three years. There is as yet little published output to reference. CAPTURE is concerned with strategies involving physical measures only, not pricing or fiscal measures. An unnamed project of six months duration which is concerned with pricing schemes to achieve a switch away from private cars towards collective transport is described in Summary of ongoing transport research work (DG V11-4A), Commission of the EC, Directorate General for Transport, December 1994.

27

IPTS Technical Report Series May 1998

5.2 MOVE MOVE is a project (recently started) within the LIFE programme (DG XI). It is concerned with reducing the amount of private cars involved in commuting via an integrated approach.... Getting public transport and ride-sharing more attractive by flexible use of cars for private purposes or in case of emergencies.....Regulations and initiatives to improve the employers awareness and responsibility .... (CORDIS RTD Projects Database, 1996).

5.3 SCOPE SCOPE is a recently completed project within the DRIVE 2 programme (DG XIII) with an ........emphasis on improving information infrastructure by providing accurate and timely traffic information on all modes of transport to.... increase the efficiency of the network by a higher share of public transport in the modal split pattern. Applications of ATT in Southampton, Cologne and Piraeus were developed within the study (CORDIS RTD Projects Database, (1996) ).

5.4 RHAPIT RHAPIT (Rhein/Main Area Project for Integrated Traffic) is another recently completed DRIVE 2 project, some of whose concerns were : ......to use space compatibly with social and environmental conditions to improve availability and accessibility to reduce motorized road traffic to promote pedestrian and bicycle traffic to promote public transport to operate traffic compatibly with social and environmental conditions to operate traffic economically.

28

IPTS Technical Report Series May 1998

6. The future for public transport and the automotive industry 6.1 Trends and forecasts of car use Table 6.1 shows growth forecasts for car ownership and vehicle use over the next three decades. UK Government forecasts are based primarily on anticipated changes in economic growth, incomes, fuel prices (assumed to increase 5% per annum in real terms) and public transport provision. They do not, and of course cannot, anticipate any as yet unspecified changes of a determinedly radical nature. Table 6.1 : Growth in car ownership and use in GB 1994 Veh km Cars per person Number of cars 100 100 100 100 100 100 2000 111 119 110 114 111 116 2005 121 134 117 124 119 127 2010 130 148 123 134 126 136 2015 139 161 130 141 133 145 2020 148 174 135 149 139 153 2025 157 187 141 154 145 159

Source : Transport Statistics Great Britain 1995 (Index year 1994, lower and upper estimates for each forecast) We have not been able to include similar forecasts for other countries. Advice from the source of the UK forecasts, suggests that forecasts for the Netherlands produce very similar results and that French forecasts (for traffic on main roads) produce higher estimates. Forecasts for other countries are known to exist, but as with Netherlands and France, accessing them appears only possible via contacting the originating sources in these countries, which we have not attempted due to the time involved. What does appear to be clear however, is that growth similar to the UK pattern is generally what is expected : DRI Europe (1994), in describing the outlook for road passenger transport in Europe, says The growth rate of passenger transport, however, will be lower than overall mobility growth, as private car use is yet to reach its maximum. Policy instruments from national governments, local authorities and potentially the European Commission to discourage private car traffic in order to reduce road congestion and air pollution by cars, are not likely to have significant consequences for the ownership and use of cars in the short term. This is especially case.... for habitual car owners and users who have a substantial tolerance for mechanisms involving increased taxes and fuel excise. Table 6.1 implies that the annual use made of cars will show a very slight increase over the period. This is broadly in line with Table 6.2 which details the use of cars in 1980, 1990 and 1993 for different countries, and suggests that there is usually not much variation year to year.

29

IPTS Technical Report Series May 1998

30

IPTS Technical Report Series May 1998

Table 6.2 : Kilometers per car per annum 1980 24200 19600 23800 18200 22400 17500 23200 23500 1990 26600 19200 25000 18000 24400 13600 23900 24400 1993 25600 18200 25700 23000 24300 11200 25900

GB Belgium France Italy Netherlands Spain Sweden USA

Source : computed from data in sources quoted earlier. (Figures should be regarded as very approximate due to some incompatibility). 6.2 Trends and forecasts of public transport use Our initial look at the trend in the use of buses and coaches, showed, for the seven European countries examined, growth over the period 1970 to 1992 averaging to 2.3% per annum. Differences between countries were noted. It is not at all clear to what extent this pattern will continue into the future. The UK government does forecast bus and coach travel holding steady at its 1994 level over the next three decades, but this can only be regarded as a best guess. In describing the outlook for public transport, DRI Europe (1994) expresses growth for rail : The prospects for rail passenger traffic are for positive growth of 3% in the short to medium term. Improved railway services and increasing congestion in other modes will help favour rail transport. while remaining guarded about the prospects for road public transport : ....Large investments will be needed in ......fleets, modern fare collecting systems and service quality.....However, continuing research and development in buses is increasingly aimed at minimising gaseous pollutants and will benefit this mode. In addition, combination facilities, such as park and ride, will continue to gather pace and, passenger information services will improve. .....A two pronged policy approach to encourage people to use public transport rather than cars by providing low fares and improving the quality and quantity of the service, and at the same time increasing the costs of private transport, will act in favour of public transport. .....As the tendency towards privatising public transport systems gather pace......may however have a negative effect on service frequency and services to low populated areas. and they attempt no estimates of growth rate.
31 IPTS Technical Report Series May 1998

6.3 Future scenarios for inland surface transport It seems appropriate here to briefly describe a study recently undertaken in the UK by the TRL (Transport Research Laboratory, until recently an executive agency of the Department of Transport). It provides a good indication of the current view of future possibilities. Titled Future Scenarios for Inland Surface Transport (TRL, (1995) ), the report ....examines possible future developments in the UK over the next several decades and tries to identify likely research needs. Central themes involve consideration of undesirable externalities which have accompanied the growth of road traffic, largely congestion, accidents and injury, and environmental damage. A list of possible initiatives under the following headings is compiled : traffic control road safety engineering parking control cycling and walking public transport vehicles travel demand speed control enforcement and legal training and education vehicle secondary safety air pollution noise land use planning freight infrastructure telecommunication issues working hours The report assesses in crude qualitative terms the importance of the initiatives in tackling congestion, safety and environmental concerns and further goes on to suggest what emphasis might be ascribed to the initiatives under future scenarios attempting to reduce levels of the undesirable externalities.

32

IPTS Technical Report Series May 1998

Concluding comment covers future congestion, safety, environmental damage possibilities and are too diffuse to summaries here. With regard to car use and modal shift (in a future scenario of reduced externalities): ....vehicle operating costs will rise.....This may deter car use a little, but there will still be very large growth, and the dispersion of homes, jobs and other activities and facilities seems likely to continues at a similar rate to the present. .....encouragement of walk and cycle might prove a basis for more attractive local environments.... There will also be a shift of long distance passenger traffic to rail. And the universal concern is expressed : The central conflict remains the same that, while more and more people object to the undesirable externalities, or nuisances, of travel, and especially of private car use, they still prize the mobility conferred by their own cars. There is little evidence that a substantial proportion of people would be willing to curtail their own travel in order to reduce the nuisance they cause to others. However, With further growth in road traffic, even though the individual vehicles will be cleaner, quieter and safer, it seems inevitable that the problems will become worse in some respects, and therefore the shifting balance between personal mobility and general nuisance may eventually produce a widespread acceptance of some type of restraint.

33

IPTS Technical Report Series May 1998

7. Summary and conclusions

We have looked at recent trends in land based passenger transport and discussed some of the reasons underlying these trends. The problem and nature of car dependence has been briefly looked at. Some basic suggestions on appraising and assessing initiatives to reduce the momentum of increasing car dependence have been put forward. There are clear and consistent messages coming from the sources we have studied. They are that increasing use of the private car is destined to occur within the foreseeable future and that the problems this will cause necessitate a search for proven successful combinations of initiatives to slow and halt this momentum. This need is recognised in the funding of a project such as CAPTURE, which sets out to confront the problem of predicting how initiatives (like public transport enhancements) will affect car use by real demonstrations in European cities. In a strong climate for introducing initiatives, whose impacts are uncertain, it is not surprising that predictions for public transport appear limited and tentative.

8. Critique and problems

We are acutely aware that we have relied heavily on GB/UK research studies and sources of data, very often describing GB/UK situations only but that time, knowledge of and access to sources precluded a more international approach. It had at the outset been hoped that a review of current options and potential options for future passenger transport in Europe would link in a stronger way to how trends in passenger transport might develop, but it does seem that however clearly and precisely a review of supply options is presented, organised and directed, it could not seriously link to the future in any way other than the via speculative discussion.

34

IPTS Technical Report Series May 1998

References Automobile Association (1992) Travelling to work CORDIS RTD Projects Database (1996) (one of the publicly accessible databases provide by ECHO - the European Commission Host Organisation). Cramer, J, Oxford City Council (1994) The development of park and ride in Oxford, Paper presented to Chartered Institute of Transport, Luton, 1994. Department of Transport (1994) International Comparison of Transport Statistics, 1970-1992 (HMSO publication). Department of Transport (1995) Bus and coach statistics in GB, 1993/94 (HMSO publication) DG V11-4A (1994) Commission of the EC, Directorate General for Transport, December 1994. Summary of ongoing transport research work. DGV11-E (1995) Research, Technological Development and Demonstration Programme in the Field of Transport, Additional Information Papers, Revision December 1995. DRI Europe (1994) contributing in Panorama of Industry 1994 (European Commission publication) Kinnock (1995) Towards fair and efficient pricing in transport, Green Paper Communication by Neil Kinnock to the European Commission Newman W.G and Kenworthy J.R (1989) Cities and Automobile Dependence : An International Source Book Newman W.G and Kenworthy J.R (1995) The Potential for Application of Policies to Influence Urban Car Demand, Transportation Planning Systems, Vol.3, No. 1 (1995) Potter (1995) The Passenger Trip Length Surge, Transportation Planning Systems, Vol.3, No.1,1995 Taylor and Stokes (1995) Public Attitudes to Sustainable Transport Policies, PTRC 23rd European Transport Forum, University of Warwick, September 1995 Thornthwaite, S., School Transport and Congestion (1994) TRL (1995) Future Scenarios for Inland Surface Transport, TRL Report 130 by Bly, Hunt et al. TSU (Transport Studies Unit), Oxford University (1995) Car Dependence : A Report for the RAC Foundation for Motoring and the Environment.

35

IPTS Technical Report Series May 1998

Travel per capita (all modes)

18.00 16.00 Distance in thousand km 14.00 12.00 10.00 8.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 0.00 70 75 80 Year 85 90 95 GB Belgium France Italy Netherlands Spain Sweden Japan USA

36

IPTS Technical Report Series May 1998

Travel per capita (car and taxi)

18.0 16.0 Distance in thousand km 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 70 75 80 Year 85 90 95 GB Belgium France Italy Netherlands Spain Sweden Japan USA

37

IPTS Technical Report Series May 1998

Travel per capita (bus and coach)

1600 1400 1200 Distance in km 1000 800 600 400 200 0 70 75 80 Year 85 90 95 GB Belgium France Italy Netherlands Spain Sweden Japan USA

38

IPTS Technical Report Series May 1998

Travel per capita (rail)

3500 3000 2500 Distance in km 2000 1500 1000 500 0 70 75 80 Year 85 90 95

GB Belgium France Italy Netherlands Spain Sweden Japan USA

39

IPTS Technical Report Series May 1998