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Mike_Nelson_Amplify 11

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This document summarizes a presentation about the future of the internet between 2011-2020. The presentation discusses 10 key trends that will shape the internet: e-government 2.0, creating a culture of innovation, cloud computing, the internet of things, big data, transparency, consumerization, people-centered design, community, and the need for updated policies. The presentation argues the internet is less than 20% developed and the next decade will see as much or more change than the last 20 years, including ubiquitous wireless connectivity and over 100 billion internet-connected devices.

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THE FUTURE OF THE INTERNET IN TEN WORDS OR LESS Michael R. Nelson Visiting Professor, Internet Studies Communication, Culture and Technology Program Georgetown University [email_address]

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THE FUTURE OF THE INTERNET IN TEN WORDS OR LESS Michael R. Nelson Visiting Professor, Internet Studies Communication, Culture and Technology Program Georgetown University Twitter: MikeNelson

3

THE FUTURE OF THE INTERNET IN TEN WORDS OR LESS Michael R. Nelson Research Associate CSC Leading Edge Forum [email_address] [email_address]

4

B.S., geology, Caltech Ph.D., geophysics, MIT 1988 -- Congressional Science Fellow 4 years as Senator Gore’s science advisor 4 years as IT policy guru at White House 1998-1999 -- Technologist at FCC 9+ years as IBM’ s Director, Internet Tech. Teaching at Georgetown since January, 2008 Part of Obama campaign’ s tech policy team My Background

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What ’s Shaping the Internet E-government 2.0 Creating a Culture of Innovation How to Predict the Future(s) My Classes

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Talk about the IT trends 2011-2020 Talk about how to talk about these trends Talk about their impact Give you some reading assignments My Goals Today

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ALWAYS have a good bumper sticker The Most Important Thing I learned in Washington

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In Washington, Words Matter The right words can: Define an issue Kill a project Stir emotions Mobilize people Examples: Obama: “Change” & “Hope” Strategic Defense Initiative > “Star Wars”

9

In Washington, Numbers Matter It helps to have hundreds of pages of data

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In Washington, Numbers Matter It helps to have hundreds of pages of data But to make a point, you need two good, memorable “factoids”

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In Washington, Numbers Matter It helps to have hundreds of pages of data But to make a point, you need two good, memorable “factoids” (preferably true)

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A personal anecdote is worth a dozen policy papers—especially if other people (and the media) start repeating it. In Washington, Stories Matter

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First US Senate hearing on the Internet The Internet was the NSFNET and regional academic network connected to it A good connection: 1200 bits/second Backbone of the NSFNET: 56,000 bits/second! Looking back to 1988

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> A Demo for the Senators

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>LO A Demo for the Senators

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>LOG A Demo for the Senators

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>LOGIN A Demo for the Senators

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>LOGIN >B A Demo for the Senators

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>LOGIN >BOY A Demo for the Senators

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>LOGIN >BOY, I A Demo for the Senators

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>LOGIN >BOY, IS A Demo for the Senators

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>LOGIN >BOY, IS TH A Demo for the Senators

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>LOGIN >BOY, IS THIS A Demo for the Senators

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>LOGIN >BOY, IS THIS S A Demo for the Senators

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>LOGIN >BOY, IS THIS SLO A Demo for the Senators

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>LOGIN >BOY, IS THIS SLOW! A Demo for the Senators

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>LOGIN >BOY, IS THIS SLOW! A Demo for the Senators

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We’ll see at least as much change in the next ten years as we have seen in the last twenty So What ’s Next?

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We’ll see at least as much change in the next ten years as we have seen in the last twenty Maybe TWICE as much So What ’s Next?

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We’ll see at least as much change in the next ten years as we have seen in the last twenty Maybe TWICE as much PROVIDED we don ’t screw things up!! So What ’s Next?

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VISION First Word

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"Where there is no vision, the people perish ” Proverbs 29:18 Words from the Bible

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"Where there is no vision, the people perish ” Proverbs 29:18 (Or at least you waste a lot of time and money.) Words from the Bible

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VISION as Elevator Pitch We are entering the third phase of the Internet As profound as the World Wide Web The next 2-3 years will define the Next Generation Internet Standards and business practices are shaping the Net as much—or more—than law and regulation The Internet revolution is less than 20% complete Number of users Total bandwidth Total amount of content Number of devices Number of applications

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CLOUD Second Word

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Examples of Cloud Computing Academic grids as a prototype of the cloud Amazon, Google, Microsoft building huge data centers and offering online apps Hotmail Office 365 Flickr, YouTube Online back-up SalesForce.com Akamai delivers 15-20 percent of Internet traffic BOINC grids more powerful than supercomputers

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“ Innovate with impunity” – Business Week “ There’s no penalty for guessing wrong.” (Tony Scott, CIO, Microsoft) Hypercompetition because SMEs have tools “ Ready, fire, aim.” “ Prototype, prototype, prototype” Think big, start fast, and scale up What the Cloud means to you

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Cloud Computing Why it matters: This is the 3 rd phase of the Internet This is the 3 rd phase of COMPUTING

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The Third Phase of the Internet 1969 1980 1990 2000 2010 Capability Phase 1 - Communicating Phase 2 - Content Phase 3 Collaboration ?

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“ The Big Switch” by Nicholas Carr

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MANY-TO-MANY Third Word

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Phase One – Stand Alone Computer App. Data

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Phase Two – The Web Web sites Data App. Browser PC Data Data Data Data

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Phase Three – The Cloud Data Data Data Data App. App. App.

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THINGS Fourth Word

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The Internet of Things Why it matters: 100 billion devices, not just 1.4 billion PCs Impacts? Increased need for ubiquitous wireless A flood of new data from sensors, etc. New uses for the Cloud

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The Cloud + The Internet of Things Data Data Data Data App. App. App.

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The Cloud + The Internet of Things Data Data Data Data App. App. App.

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The Cloud + The Internet of Things Data Data Data Data App. App. App.

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EXAFLOOD Fifth word

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Estimating the Exaflood (Swanson and Gilder, 2008)

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What ’s in the Exaflood?

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The Promise and Peril of Big Data (2010) Aspen Institute Communications and Society Program Dealing with BIG DATA

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Dealing with YOUR data Gordon Bell, Microsoft MyLifeBits Lifetime digital diary

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TRANSPARENCY Sixth Word

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Confidentiality, Privacy, and Transparency in the Age of Wikileaks Imperative for Transparency Open government Innovation ecosystems Increasing buzz; Fostering trust Recruiting, Retention, and Morale Leveraging your data > new services Ongoing LEF Research

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Your organization needs a TRANSPARENCY POLICY More than a Privacy Policy

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Security + Transparency

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CONSUMERIZATION Seventh Word

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From Consumerization to the Cloud – the accelerating rate of IT change By Doug Neal 30 November 2009 Consumerization of the Workplace

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Your employees want to use the best tools Facebook LinkedIn Hotmail They ’re work life and family life are merging Calendars Instant messaging Video, Skype They want reliability, portability, the Cloud Consumerization of the Workplace

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PEOPLE Eighth Word

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Hardware

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Hardware

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Hardware

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Hardware

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Hardware Software

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Hardware Software People

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Hardware Software Organizations People

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Hardware Software Organizations People

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. Software Organizations People

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Software Organizations People

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Organizations People

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New modes of teaming Need “double-deep” employees New communications skills Implications

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The Future of Work: What It Means for Individuals, Businesses, Markets and Governments By David Bollier March 10, 2011 Required Reading

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COMMUNITY Ninth Word

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Love (or Lust) Fear Envy Distraction Anxiety Emotions online

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Communication Content Collaboration Community > Commitment Killer Apps of the Net

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Required Reading

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PREDICTIONS Tenth Word

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Within 5 years, 80% of all computing and storage done worldwide could happen “in the cloud” BIG, Hairy Audacious Prediction #1

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Within 5 years, 80% of all computing and storage done worldwide could happen “in the cloud” (But it might take 10 years) BIG, Hairy Audacious Prediction #1

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Within 5 years, 100 BILLION devices and sensors could be connected to the Net BIG, Hairy Audacious Prediction #2

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Within 5 years, 100 BILLION devices and sensors will be connected to the Net (But it might take 10 years) Not-quite-so-audacious Prediction #2

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Technical Agreement and adoption of key standards IPv6, DNSsec, IPsec, Grid standards Business practices Cooperation around open standards vs. proprietary lock-in; open source software Culture Users have to learn to “trust the cloud” CIOs and their teams have to adapt to new roles Policy Why Not?

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POLICY One Last Word

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Organizations People Policy Hardware Software

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Privacy Search warrants, wiretapping in the Cloud? Transparency Online copyright Liability for cloud service providers Who ’s responsible for Illegal activities? International data flows Competition policy Updating policies for the Cloud

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If we make the right choices: The Internet continues to grow Bandwidth explodes Wireless everywhere 10x, 100x more applications Internet of Things > Invisible Computing We Have 3 or 4 Years

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If we make the right choices: The Internet continues to grow Bandwidth explodes Wireless everywhere 10x, 100x more applications Internet of Things > Invisible Computing If we blow it: Internet becomes Cable TV Innovation shuts down We Have 3 or 4 Years

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Conclusions The Internet Revolution is less than 20% complete The Internet Revolution will be as disruptive as the printing press, but: Much faster Totally global More unpredictable When in doubt, empower the user!

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Back-up slides

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Will my provider be here tomorrow? Next year? Is redundancy built in? Are my networks reliable enough? Will I need to retrain my employees? Do I need to retrain my IT team? What stays on the laptop? Questions to ask about Cloud

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A Workbook for Cloud Computing in the Enterprise By Doug Neal 18 January 2010 LEF Guide to the Cloud

More Related Content

Mike_Nelson_Amplify 11

  • 1. THE FUTURE OF THE INTERNET IN TEN WORDS OR LESS Michael R. Nelson Visiting Professor, Internet Studies Communication, Culture and Technology Program Georgetown University [email_address]
  • 2. THE FUTURE OF THE INTERNET IN TEN WORDS OR LESS Michael R. Nelson Visiting Professor, Internet Studies Communication, Culture and Technology Program Georgetown University Twitter: MikeNelson
  • 3. THE FUTURE OF THE INTERNET IN TEN WORDS OR LESS Michael R. Nelson Research Associate CSC Leading Edge Forum [email_address] [email_address]
  • 4. B.S., geology, Caltech Ph.D., geophysics, MIT 1988 -- Congressional Science Fellow 4 years as Senator Gore’s science advisor 4 years as IT policy guru at White House 1998-1999 -- Technologist at FCC 9+ years as IBM’ s Director, Internet Tech. Teaching at Georgetown since January, 2008 Part of Obama campaign’ s tech policy team My Background
  • 5. What ’s Shaping the Internet E-government 2.0 Creating a Culture of Innovation How to Predict the Future(s) My Classes
  • 6. Talk about the IT trends 2011-2020 Talk about how to talk about these trends Talk about their impact Give you some reading assignments My Goals Today
  • 7. ALWAYS have a good bumper sticker The Most Important Thing I learned in Washington
  • 8. In Washington, Words Matter The right words can: Define an issue Kill a project Stir emotions Mobilize people Examples: Obama: “Change” & “Hope” Strategic Defense Initiative > “Star Wars”
  • 9. In Washington, Numbers Matter It helps to have hundreds of pages of data
  • 10. In Washington, Numbers Matter It helps to have hundreds of pages of data But to make a point, you need two good, memorable “factoids”
  • 11. In Washington, Numbers Matter It helps to have hundreds of pages of data But to make a point, you need two good, memorable “factoids” (preferably true)
  • 12. A personal anecdote is worth a dozen policy papers—especially if other people (and the media) start repeating it. In Washington, Stories Matter
  • 13. First US Senate hearing on the Internet The Internet was the NSFNET and regional academic network connected to it A good connection: 1200 bits/second Backbone of the NSFNET: 56,000 bits/second! Looking back to 1988
  • 14. > A Demo for the Senators
  • 15. >LO A Demo for the Senators
  • 16. >LOG A Demo for the Senators
  • 17. >LOGIN A Demo for the Senators
  • 18. >LOGIN >B A Demo for the Senators
  • 19. >LOGIN >BOY A Demo for the Senators
  • 20. >LOGIN >BOY, I A Demo for the Senators
  • 21. >LOGIN >BOY, IS A Demo for the Senators
  • 22. >LOGIN >BOY, IS TH A Demo for the Senators
  • 23. >LOGIN >BOY, IS THIS A Demo for the Senators
  • 24. >LOGIN >BOY, IS THIS S A Demo for the Senators
  • 25. >LOGIN >BOY, IS THIS SLO A Demo for the Senators
  • 26. >LOGIN >BOY, IS THIS SLOW! A Demo for the Senators
  • 27. >LOGIN >BOY, IS THIS SLOW! A Demo for the Senators
  • 28. We’ll see at least as much change in the next ten years as we have seen in the last twenty So What ’s Next?
  • 29. We’ll see at least as much change in the next ten years as we have seen in the last twenty Maybe TWICE as much So What ’s Next?
  • 30. We’ll see at least as much change in the next ten years as we have seen in the last twenty Maybe TWICE as much PROVIDED we don ’t screw things up!! So What ’s Next?
  • 32. "Where there is no vision, the people perish ” Proverbs 29:18 Words from the Bible
  • 33. "Where there is no vision, the people perish ” Proverbs 29:18 (Or at least you waste a lot of time and money.) Words from the Bible
  • 34. VISION as Elevator Pitch We are entering the third phase of the Internet As profound as the World Wide Web The next 2-3 years will define the Next Generation Internet Standards and business practices are shaping the Net as much—or more—than law and regulation The Internet revolution is less than 20% complete Number of users Total bandwidth Total amount of content Number of devices Number of applications
  • 36.  
  • 37.  
  • 38.  
  • 39. Examples of Cloud Computing Academic grids as a prototype of the cloud Amazon, Google, Microsoft building huge data centers and offering online apps Hotmail Office 365 Flickr, YouTube Online back-up SalesForce.com Akamai delivers 15-20 percent of Internet traffic BOINC grids more powerful than supercomputers
  • 40. “ Innovate with impunity” – Business Week “ There’s no penalty for guessing wrong.” (Tony Scott, CIO, Microsoft) Hypercompetition because SMEs have tools “ Ready, fire, aim.” “ Prototype, prototype, prototype” Think big, start fast, and scale up What the Cloud means to you
  • 41. Cloud Computing Why it matters: This is the 3 rd phase of the Internet This is the 3 rd phase of COMPUTING
  • 42. The Third Phase of the Internet 1969 1980 1990 2000 2010 Capability Phase 1 - Communicating Phase 2 - Content Phase 3 Collaboration ?
  • 43. “ The Big Switch” by Nicholas Carr
  • 45. Phase One – Stand Alone Computer App. Data
  • 46. Phase Two – The Web Web sites Data App. Browser PC Data Data Data Data
  • 47. Phase Three – The Cloud Data Data Data Data App. App. App.
  • 49. The Internet of Things Why it matters: 100 billion devices, not just 1.4 billion PCs Impacts? Increased need for ubiquitous wireless A flood of new data from sensors, etc. New uses for the Cloud
  • 50. The Cloud + The Internet of Things Data Data Data Data App. App. App.
  • 51. The Cloud + The Internet of Things Data Data Data Data App. App. App.
  • 52. The Cloud + The Internet of Things Data Data Data Data App. App. App.
  • 54. Estimating the Exaflood (Swanson and Gilder, 2008)
  • 55. What ’s in the Exaflood?
  • 56. The Promise and Peril of Big Data (2010) Aspen Institute Communications and Society Program Dealing with BIG DATA
  • 57. Dealing with YOUR data Gordon Bell, Microsoft MyLifeBits Lifetime digital diary
  • 58.  
  • 60. Confidentiality, Privacy, and Transparency in the Age of Wikileaks Imperative for Transparency Open government Innovation ecosystems Increasing buzz; Fostering trust Recruiting, Retention, and Morale Leveraging your data > new services Ongoing LEF Research
  • 61. Your organization needs a TRANSPARENCY POLICY More than a Privacy Policy
  • 64. From Consumerization to the Cloud – the accelerating rate of IT change By Doug Neal 30 November 2009 Consumerization of the Workplace
  • 65. Your employees want to use the best tools Facebook LinkedIn Hotmail They ’re work life and family life are merging Calendars Instant messaging Video, Skype They want reliability, portability, the Cloud Consumerization of the Workplace
  • 78. New modes of teaming Need “double-deep” employees New communications skills Implications
  • 79. The Future of Work: What It Means for Individuals, Businesses, Markets and Governments By David Bollier March 10, 2011 Required Reading
  • 81.  
  • 82.  
  • 83. Love (or Lust) Fear Envy Distraction Anxiety Emotions online
  • 84. Communication Content Collaboration Community > Commitment Killer Apps of the Net
  • 87. Within 5 years, 80% of all computing and storage done worldwide could happen “in the cloud” BIG, Hairy Audacious Prediction #1
  • 88. Within 5 years, 80% of all computing and storage done worldwide could happen “in the cloud” (But it might take 10 years) BIG, Hairy Audacious Prediction #1
  • 89. Within 5 years, 100 BILLION devices and sensors could be connected to the Net BIG, Hairy Audacious Prediction #2
  • 90. Within 5 years, 100 BILLION devices and sensors will be connected to the Net (But it might take 10 years) Not-quite-so-audacious Prediction #2
  • 91. Technical Agreement and adoption of key standards IPv6, DNSsec, IPsec, Grid standards Business practices Cooperation around open standards vs. proprietary lock-in; open source software Culture Users have to learn to “trust the cloud” CIOs and their teams have to adapt to new roles Policy Why Not?
  • 93. Organizations People Policy Hardware Software
  • 94. Privacy Search warrants, wiretapping in the Cloud? Transparency Online copyright Liability for cloud service providers Who ’s responsible for Illegal activities? International data flows Competition policy Updating policies for the Cloud
  • 95. If we make the right choices: The Internet continues to grow Bandwidth explodes Wireless everywhere 10x, 100x more applications Internet of Things > Invisible Computing We Have 3 or 4 Years
  • 96. If we make the right choices: The Internet continues to grow Bandwidth explodes Wireless everywhere 10x, 100x more applications Internet of Things > Invisible Computing If we blow it: Internet becomes Cable TV Innovation shuts down We Have 3 or 4 Years
  • 97. Conclusions The Internet Revolution is less than 20% complete The Internet Revolution will be as disruptive as the printing press, but: Much faster Totally global More unpredictable When in doubt, empower the user!
  • 99. Will my provider be here tomorrow? Next year? Is redundancy built in? Are my networks reliable enough? Will I need to retrain my employees? Do I need to retrain my IT team? What stays on the laptop? Questions to ask about Cloud
  • 100. A Workbook for Cloud Computing in the Enterprise By Doug Neal 18 January 2010 LEF Guide to the Cloud