Race-by-race preview and tips for Muswellbrook on Monday
By Neil Evans
Track Soft 7 & rail out 5m from 1200m to 300m into a cut/away & True the remainder.
Race 1 CLASS 1 & MAIDEN PLATE (2300m)
Provincial-based 6. Special Day has been slowly working towards a second career win. Has done her best work late in better provincial races last two times out, and she can peak over this longer trip back at country level.
It’s a seven-race card at Muswellbrook on Monday.Credit: Brendan Esposito
Dangers: Big watch on metro filly 8. Alpine Kandy who worked home OK first-up at Goulburn in a similar lineup when backed from $3.60 into $3.40. Steps up significantly in distance here carrying 2kg less. 2. Piccapeppa continues to run home well in his races. Came off a four-week break to finish fairly in BM 58 grade when anchored in the worst part of the track, and for the first time blinkers have been removed. Lightly raced filly 11. San Gavino also rises sharply in distance for her third start, while 3. Rapid Impact heads the rest.
How to play it: Special Day to win
Race 2 MAIDEN PLATE (1450m)
Progressive filly 9. Missile Love gets her chance to break through deep into the prep, and rising in distance. Has hit the line hard from well off speed behind only the winner in her last two, and most of her rivals here have very poor records. Relishes soft ground, and can settle well back again before being given plenty of room to finish over the top.
Dangers: 10. Read ’Em And Weep has been in and around the money all prep, and also has a liking for rain-affected ground. 12. Sunset Panorama is trained on the track, and another one hard fit after plenty of racing, and edging towards a breakthrough win. Big gap to the rest.
How to play it: Missile Love to win
Race 3 MAIDEN HCP (1000m)
Provincial filly 8. Etude can start her career with a bang for the Kris Lees yard. Has been solid through the line in two provincial trials on rain-affected going, and bred to thrive being by group 1 soft-tracker winner Exceedance out of a Sebring mare.
Dangers: Big market watch on two-year old filly 6. Umabett, resuming for only her second start for the Annabel Neasham stable. Ran home OK on debut last spring in much tougher metro group 3 company. 12. My Mate Cobber has a 40 per cent place rate from 19 starts, and can run into the money coming back from provincial level second-up; while 3. Sapphire Kiss heads the rest.
How to play it: Etude to win
Race 4 CLASS 1 HCP (1280m)
Lightly raced mare 3. Soaring Phoenix can strike second-up over a little more ground. Was easy in betting when hitting the line OK first-up in similar company, but fitter now, she again draws to get cover just off the speed. Ran a slick time when winning on debut late last year.
Dangers: Big watch on improving 4. Mosgiel Daisy who charged home late in a similar field first-up off a seven-week turnaround, and the wetter the better. Expect sharp fourth-up improvement from 1. Fiorsum Fred dropping back from much tougher metro opposition, and stable has made a key gear change. Stormed home to win his only previous start at this track. Keep safe both 2. Invincible Red second-up with an important jockey change, and home tracker 5. Thirteen Under resuming off a quiet trial. Honest 7. Smart Jazz is the best of the rest.
How to play it: Soaring Phoenix to win
Race 5 MAIDEN HCP (1280m)
Resuming provincial filly 3. Lost Illusions is drawn to get an economical run behind two trials. Has generally found the line in four spaced runs up to the mile against deeper opposition, and like the fact she’s been given two trials over 1000m to prepare for this.
Dangers: 6. I Want This is a market watch at good odds getting the blinkers added 13 days after a fair debut. 2. Don’t Tell Jack improves significantly at his second start, with a far superior rider aboard. Consistent 11. He Is The Kiss hasn’t missed a place in his last five, while 7. Search Warrant third-up, and 9. Bubbles And Caviar better suited back in trip, can both figure in the minor money.
How to play it: Lost Illusions to win
Race 6 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1280m)
Sparingly raced metro mare 7. Successful reloads here 24 days between runs since an even effort when close-up in a BM 58 with more depth than this.
Dangers: The market could tell a story with 8. Equivocal resuming with a gear change behind two progressive trials. 2. Foolish ran above his easing big price when getting home late fresh at Wyong; while 3. Time Ruler steps up from winning a very weak class 2 when resuming.
How to play it: Successful to win
Race 7 BENCHMARK 66 HCP (1450m)
Plenty of chances in the closer, but ultra honest metro three-year-old 1. Code In Time is a proven weight carrier through deeper fields. Before an unplaced effort at Kembla 13 days ago, hadn’t finished further back than second in four straight runs up to provincial BM 64 grade. Draws well and handles soft tracks.
Dangers: 5. Bangetta has to overcome an awkward draw, but she hits peak fitness now, with a senior jockey taking over. 3. Shen Gui steps up a level off a dominant front-running win in BM 58 grade. Include 6. Bubbles For Me deep into her prep, and 9. Damascus Gate second-up, in all trifecta and first four plays, while 7. Obelius at big odds and 11. Showboat fourth-up, are the best of the rest.
How to play it: Code In Time to win
BEST BETS: R2 9. MISSILE LOVE, R7 1. CODE IN TIME
BEST VALUE:R4 3. SOARING PHOENIX
Supplied by Racing NSW
Full form and race replays available at racingnsw.com.au