Euro 2024 Predictions: 500/1 and 100/1 Top Goalscorer & Golden Boot Betting Tips

BY SOCCERBASE STAFF12:05 PM 12 JUN 2024

Top Goalscorer

Sky Bet, Paddy Power, and Betfair are paying five places at 1/5 the odds on each way bets. The rest are paying four at 1/4 odds.

Paddy Power Offer

Paddy are paying out one a £1 free bet builder for every shot on target and every goal when you bet £10 on the Golden Boot.

Example: Place a £10 bet on Harry Kane to win the golden boot. Kane scores 1 goals and has 3 shots on target vs Serbia – you receive £4 in free bet builders within 12 hours of the game finishing.

You can also get £50 in free bets if you sign up below and bet £10 on any Euro 2024 market.

Paddy Power Offer

There are strong stats and trends in this market that can help guide us to a winner, which are:

Most of the goals scored come in the group stages
Centre Forwards have dominated the award
You need 3+ goals to place
Plays for a team with a good chance of making it to the semi-finals
Big prices (50/1+) have performed well

We've put together a Euro 2024 Betting Data Thread on Twitter, which covers a range of data from the qualifiers and the last two years of competitive matches and friendlies.

Harry Kane (11/2)

You're all aware of Kane's unbelievable stats and performance this season for Bayern, so I won't repeat them. England have a very soft group and a weak centre-back pairing, so they should be involved in some high-scoring games. He's on penalties, and everything should go through him as the focal part of England's attack, with many attacking options servicing him.

Niclas Fullkrug (66/1)

After it was announced that Kai Havertz would be the starting centre forward, Fullkrug doubled its price to a backable number. Like England, Germany have a very soft route to the final and a massive home advantage. There are two ways this bet can win. Havertz's finishing lets him down and forces Fullrug to step in as the starter in the tournament's latter stages, or he can get to three or four goals off the bench and get us an excellent place return. He has 11 goals in 16 appearances for Germany, which includes two in three sub-appearances at the 2022 World Cup. He leads Germany in xG per 90 over the previous two years at 1.70 - a small sample but impressive.

Michael Gregoritsch (100/1)

Austria were tipped as our tournament dark horses, which we think are good value to make it to the semi-finals, so there is some correlation with this selection. Gregoritsch had three goals in qualifying, which was second-best behind Sabitzer and tied with Baumgartner. Both are fine options, but I prefer Gregoritsch's underlying numbers of him leading the side in shots per 90, total xG, and xG per 90 over the past two years.

Robert Bozenik (500/1)

I like Group E to be a high-scoring group, and I think Ukraine and Romania are overrated. Slovakia play an aggressive 4-3-3 and face Belgium first, so they'll likely need to be on the front foot in the two remaining group games. Bozenik will lead the line for Slovakia, and although his long-term goalscoring record could be better, he does have two in his last five. The trends for this market suggest it's best to target the position.

Top Goalscorer Staking Plan

0.25 Points Each Way

Harry Kane - 11/2 with bet365 (4 places 1/4)

0.10 Points Each Way

Niclas Fullkrug - 100/1 with Paddy Power (5 places 1/5)

Michael Gregoritsch - 100/1 with Paddy Power (5 places 1/5)

Robert Bozenik - 500/1 with bet365 (4 places 1/4)

Read about our bankroll management and staking plan.

We've put together a Euro 2024 Betting Data Thread on Twitter, which covers a range of data from the qualifiers and the last two years of competitive matches and friendlies.