Euro 2024 Predictions: Group winners accumulator and to qualify bettings tips

BY SOCCERBASE STAFF3:05 PM 12 JUN 2024

Group Winners Accumulator

There are three teams I think set up very well to win their group but could then struggle during the knockouts against better opposition.

We've put together a Euro 2024 Betting Data Thread on Twitter, which covers a range of data from the qualifiers and the last two years of competitive matches and friendlies.

Germany

With home advantage and a very soft group I like them cruise through to the knockout stages. Switzerland and Hungary haven't played anyone in qualifying. This is a big step up for them to try and beat the Germans in their own back yard. Scotland seem to have lost their way and have some key injuries. Die Mannschaft have already beaten France away and the Netherlands at home under Nagelsmann.

Belgium

Won six of eight during qualifying, scoring 22 goals. Lukaku has thrived against weaker opposition and topped the goalscoring charts on the road to Germany. This is the weakest group in the competition and Belgium have won nine of thirteen under Domenico Tedesco. They'll face Romania, Ukraine, and Slovakia and a third-place team in the round of 16.

Portugal

Another side that dominated qualifying and get a very easy group. Portugal won all 10 qualifiers, scored 36 goals and kept nine clean sheets. They'll now face Turkey, Czechia, and Georgia in the group stage and a third-place team in the Round of 16.

Group Winners Acca

Germany, Belgium, Portugal all to win their group - 1 Point at 2/1 with Spreadex

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Group Bets

Let's run through the bets we're having in each group.

Group A

Germany feature in our group winners accumulator above. I want to back Scotland, but injuries to Dykes and Doak put me off. I will bet on the rest of this group on a game-by-game basis. I've also bet a German top goalscorer at 66/1.

Group B

Spain were tipped as our tournament winner, and I don't see any value elsewhere. Italy haven't been as attacking under Spaletti in recent friendlies, so it will likely be a watching brief for the first round.

Group C

England are too short in the betting with their centre-back options but have the best attack in the tournament. I've bet an England top goalscorer, which I think is great value. Serbia have the quality on paper but have never performed at a major tournament.

Group D

Austria were tipped as our tournament dark horse, and we also backed them to reach the quarter-finals and semi-finals. France were tipped as a long shot to reach the final against Spain at 20/1. Poland already have Lewandowski and Milik out for their first game and the Netherlands have poor form against the top sides. I've also bet an Austrian England top goalscorer at 100/1.

Group E

Belgium are in the group winners accumulator above, and I think they are good value to get to the quarter-finals at 10/11. I think Romania and Ukraine are both overrated, so backing Slovakia to qualify at 1/1 also appeals. I've also taken a flyer on a 500/1 Slovakian top goalscorer, which I hope can sneak a place.

Group F

Portugal are in the group accumulator above. Czech Republic changed their manager four games ago and Turkey were the dark horses of Euro 2021 that fell flat on their face. I like Georgia to be the lowest scoring team at 9/1. They are the only side in the tournament with a negative expected goal difference and it's quite a signifcant one at -0.50 per 90.

Highest scoring group

Given how the draw plays out, Group E offers value. Belgium can comfortably beat all three of these sides by three goals or more. Slovakia play a very aggressive 4-3-3 and will look to press and win the ball back high under Calzona. They play Belgium first, so they'll likely need to be on the front foot in the two remaining group games, which could open the games up. 5/1 is value, in my opinion.

Group Bets Staking Plan

Austria to reach the Quarter-Finals - 0.50 Points at 11/4 with Betfred

Austria to reach the Semi-Finals - 0.25 Points at 8/1 with bet365

Belgium to reach the Quarter-Finals - 1 Point at 10/11 with Betfred

Slovakia to qualify from Group E - 1 Point at 1/1 with Betfred

Group E - Highest Scoring Group - 0.50 Points at 5/1 with bet365

Read about our bankroll management and staking plan.

We've put together a Euro 2024 Betting Data Thread on Twitter, which covers a range of data from the qualifiers and the last two years of competitive matches and friendlies.