To the surprise of many, replacing the Warriors and Celtics with the Nuggets and Heat has not had a meaningful impact on NBA Finals ratings.
Sunday’s Heat-Nuggets NBA Finals Game 2 averaged a 6.0 rating and 11.91 million viewers on ABC, down 3% in ratings and flat in viewership compared to Celtics-Warriors last year (6.2, 11.91M). Miami’s narrow win peaked with 15.26 million viewers from 10-10:15 PM ET, well ahead of last year’s Game 2 peak of 14.14 million (in a less competitive game).
Game 1 of the series last Thursday had a similar 6.0 and 11.58 million across ABC and ESPN2, down just 6% and 3% respectively from last year. (Related: Heat-Nuggets opens within 3% of C’s-Warriors)
The Celtics and Warriors are two of the league’s three biggest ratings draws (along with the Lakers) and hail from top ten media markets. This year’s Finals viewership was expected to fall well short of last year, as neither Denver nor this iteration of Miami have been known to move the needle.
Viewership comfortably outpaced the two prior Finals, both of which aired out-of-season due to COVID-related scheduling adjustments. Bucks-Suns Game 2 averaged 9.59 million in July of 2021 and Heat-Lakers just 6.78 million opposite breaking news of a presidential hospitalization in October 2020.
Excluding those two COVID-affected series, one would have to go back to Cavaliers-Spurs in 2007 to find a smaller Game 2 audience (8.55M). In the past three decades, only three Finals — all involving the ratings-challenged mid-2000s Spurs — averaged fewer viewers in Game 2: 2007, 2005 (Pistons-Spurs: 10.66M) and 2003 (Nets-Spurs: 8.06M). Game 1 was also the least-watched since 2007 (with the COVID seasons excluded).
Notably, this year’s series is skewing slightly younger than Warriors-Celtics a year ago. Games 1 and 2 each averaged a 3.2 rating in adults 18-34, up 6% and 3% respectively from last year (3.0, 3.1) and the highest for the first two games of the Finals since 2019. Game 2 had a whopping 45 share in 18-34, meaning that 45% of adults under 35 watching linear television were tuned to the game. (Consider that also means just 3.2% of the 18-34 demo accounted for nearly half of the demographic’s television viewing Sunday night.)
By comparison, ratings in adults 18-49 declined in Game 1 (3.8 to 3.7) and held steady in Game 2 (3.7), while ratings in 25-54 were flat at a 4.2 for both games.
Denver led all markets Sunday with a 22.3 rating, up from Game 1 (19.9) and a record for an NBA game in the market. The Nuggets had not previously made an NBA Finals. Miami ranked second at a 15.2, surpassing Game 1 and each game in the “bubble” as the market’s highest for a Finals game since the “Heatles” era in 2014.
West Palm Beach, Fla., ranked third at an 11.5. Milwaukee was the top neutral market at a 9.2 and Memphis rounded out the top five at an 8.7.
(Nielsen estimates from ShowBuzz Daily 6.6, network PR)
“Game 2 had a whopping 45 share in 18-34, meaning that 45% of adults under 35 watching linear television were tuned to the game.”
Do we have any data for context that compares either the overall share or 18-34/18-49 share for the NBA finals these days compared to the finals back when the NBA had more viewers but also more TV competition like the Steph/LeBron finals, Celtics/Lakers, or MJ Bulls finals?
I would be curious if the share number is higher now even if the ratings are down 25-50% total.
Shares are much higher now across the board — linear TV viewing has collapsed, so sporting events (which have been far more durable to the erosion of TV viewing than other programming) are a bigger fish in a smaller pond despite attracting smaller audiences.
Great, great points Nate. Really enjoyed your analysis. I also think that the ECF game 7 was a great springboard to this final. I really enjoyed game 2 Sunday night. I find it to be great basketball, both teams are unselfish and play “team game” looking for the best shot. Also, Jokic has been great. Hopefully this series goes to 6 or 7 games. I also think that sports, besides college football and NFL, needs good and more storytelling to get goods ratings and this series has it. The underdogs Miami Heat (having a great run) against the 2 times MVP Jokic and the Denver Nuggets (in their first final looking to the win their first championship.) Long last this series!
But still it was the most watch program that Sunday night versus anything else on television. At the end of the day that’s what matters to ABC/ESPN and it’s advertisers.
There’s an interesting theory that I have with why the Finals is doing better than expected.
1.) Heat nearly collapsing an 3-0 series lead in the ECF kept the NBA Playoffs on TV after it seemed like in the early parts of the 3rd Quarter in Game 4 of that series the NBA would go dark for a little over a week. The ECF reaching the maximum number of games helped out in a major way.
2.) There’s non toxic viewers in the NBA. It’s hard to believe that’s the case. In my group chat, the recent NBA conversation has been about Ja Morant and the future of the NBA after LeBron and Steph retires. The only Finals talk I had, up to this post, was from one person who asked me if he should wager that the Heat would get swept in which I told him it was a low probablity of that to actually happen. I haven’t talked to any of my brothers about the Finals which wasn’t the case in the earlier rounds. I noticed that this Finals isn’t making ESPN or the like be very excited as they were in the earlier rounds. Yet you couldn’t tell from the ratings and viewers. Perhaps there is an audience out that is okay with just enjoying a sporting event without much debates, legacy talks, gambling wages, etc. which is surprising to me. I knew it was possible from other events such as the World Cup, March Madness, College Football, and the MLB, but it was hard to determine that in the NBA. Maybe we have ourselves a turning point… Hopefully.
3.) This adds to point number 1, but these NBA Playoffs has been better than last year’s. A season a go I remember complaints about how there were so many blowouts in the NBA Playoffs and of course perception is reality. The Celtics/Warriors Finals didn’t really have the same momentum to the Finals like the Heat/Nuggets do. Again the near 0-3 comeback in the ECF kept the pulse going and added to the novelty of how excellent these 2023 Playoffs has been.
Good news is that the series is tied at 1 going to South Beach. Game 2 was a very fun game to watch so I expect continued momentum regardless of results on the court. What I have noticed from Game 2 that wasn’t there in last year’s Finals was how there was a close game in the final minutes/seconds. Last years Finals the winner of the game dominated the 4th or were in control of the 4th Quarter. I bring all of that up because it goes to my point that the NBA is a year-to-year evaluation. Although, I am curious on how they can attempt to mesh viewership of those that wanted Curry, LeBron, or Durant in the Finals vs. those that is content and have no problem with the Joker and Butler in the Finals.
Those are some great great points. The longer the series goes the better it will be ratings wise. And again compared to what’s on TV right now during this time of year is getting better numbers than anything else on.