LABOUR have taken a clear lead over the SNP in the newest polling predicting Westminster voting intention.
Keir Starmer’s party were projected to win 39% of the vote north of the Border in a survey conducted by YouGov, while the SNP were projected to win 29%.
Elsewhere, the Conservatives are on 12% (-2), the Lib Dems on 8% (no change), the Greens on 7% (+3) and Reform UK on 4% (-1).
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Labour’s ten-point lead over the SNP was described as “commanding” by YouGov, who conducted the poll from May 13-17, after John Swinney took over as First Minister.
The firm said it was the highest vote for Labour and the lowest vote for the SNP that it has recorded since the 2014 independence referendum.
Seat projections from Professor John Curtice, reported by The Times, puts Labour on 35 MPs, the SNP on 11, the Tories on six, and the LibDems five.
Labour now holds 10pt lead over SNP in Scotland Westminster voting intention (13-17 May)
— YouGov (@YouGov) May 20, 2024
Lab: 39% (+5 from 26-29 Apr)
SNP: 29% (-4)
Con: 12% (-2)
Lib Dem: 8% (=)
Green: 7% (+3)
Reform UK: 4% (-1)https://t.co/yHr7luTcEs pic.twitter.com/fXdMLHKXaf
The lead is not repeated in Holyrood voting intention however, where things are a lot tighter.
For the Scottish Parliament, Labour would win 35% of constituency votes while the SNP would win 34%, the YouGov survey predicted. The Tories would win 16%, the LibDems 9%, and the Greens 3%.
On the regional lists, Labour were projected to win 32% of the vote to 28% for the SNP. The Tories would record 17% of the list vote, the Greens and LibDems 8% each, and Alba and Reform 3% each.
The poll also asked Scots how they would vote in an independence referendum, and found a lead for the Union.
In total, 55% of people said they’d back No while 45% would back Yes in a second vote on Scottish independence.
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Swinney’s favourability rating was recorded at -3, with 35% favourable compared to 38% unfavourable. In contrast, Rishi Sunak had a net rating of -61 and Keir Starmer had a rating of -11.
In total, 43% expect the new SNP leader to do a better job than his predecessor, Humza Yousaf, while only 9% think he will do worse.
Compared to Nicola Sturgeon, 21% said they think he will do a better job while 22% said it would be worse.
YouGov surveyed 1114 Scots aged over 16 between May 13 and 17, 2024.
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