‘You can giggle away there,” Luke “Ming” Flanagan told two Aontu members in front of a packed conference room in a hotel in Killybegs, Donegal. “It’s a pity your party leader couldn’t show up.”
Flanagan, an independent MEP, was delivering his closing remarks after a hustings — focused on support for small fishermen and women — that included ten of the 27 European candidates vying for a seat in the vast Midlands-North-West constituency spanning 15 counties.
He took the opportunity to jump on his rival candidate Peadar Tóibín, the Aontu leader, over his absence from the debate while Patrick Murphy, who was one of the fisherman who famously made a Russian naval fleet do a U-turn off the coast of west Cork in 2022, observed from the front row with Mary T Sweeney, an Aontu local election candidate in Letterkenny. Murphy, based in Castletownbere, Cork, is also hoping for election to Europe in the South constituency.
About 270 people had gathered in the Tara hotel to hear the Midlands-North-West hopefuls outline how they would represent the Irish fishing and seafood industry in Europe. Assurances were made by candidates that they would endeavour to increase fishing quotas if elected. Better communication was also guaranteed between Europe, the Oireachtas and stakeholders, among a litany of other promises as the clock winds down to election day on June 7.
If polling and opinions expressed to candidates going door to door are an indication of what’s to come, Flanagan is the most likely to have secured another five years in Brussels. Theresa Reidy, a political scientist at University College Cork, said his incumbency was key, and a demonstration of his European bona fides on RTE’s Upfront with Katie Hannon last Monday also strengthened his chances.
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At present, the most likely result for the Midlands-North-West would be a seat for Fine Gael, Fianna Fail, Sinn Fein and Flanagan, with another seat most likely going to a right-leaning candidate, potentially Ciaran Mullooly, the former RTE broadcaster. To be in with a shot, candidates will need to receive close to 50,000 votes on the first count, or have a running mate who can transfer substantially to them to get into those numbers.
Candidates on the left such as Pauline O’Reilly (Green Party), Saoirse McHugh (independent) and Rory Hearne (Social Democrats) may face some challenges in breaking through as they will all be pulling from the same pool of voters, but this could change if some stand-out performances emerged in the days remaining.
Similarly, candidates in right fringe parties, such as Justin Barrett and James Reynolds (National Party), Hermann Kelly (Irish Freedom Party) and Anthony Cahill (the Irish People), are unlikely to achieve a seat as their support base will be “fragmented”, according to Reidy. “There isn’t a sense of community among those political parties,” she said.
“It’s very difficult to see them accumulating transfers as they go along. They’re all polling at around zero to 1 per cent.”
Among the right-leaning independents, Peter Casey, the former presidential candidate, has one of the largest profiles. In 2019 he took 56,650 first preference votes (9.52 per cent). However, his decision to walk off stage in frustration on Monday night’s RTE debate might have done more harm than good, according to Reidy. While on air, Hannon suggested Casey walked off for a few minutes due to an issue with his microphone, but Casey said: “The whole debate was a shambles, RTE is just a shambles. Luke ‘Ming’ Flanagan — Ming the muppet — was being his normal objectionable self and he was irritating people, and I just thought to myself, ‘There’s no point in being here, it’s a quarter past 11 at night, and you’re getting lectured by him?’” He was coaxed back on by producers.
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Casey is focusing his campaign on the mica issue in Donegal, driving business to the region and having greater control over illegal migration. He would likely align himself with the Identity and Democracy group in the European parliament, which includes a mix of right and radical right MEPs.
Casey had strong words for McHugh, with whom he clashed on the RTE debate after she called him “a clown” during a discussion on Gaza. “She should be focused more on her wedding and her honeymoon than elections,” he said.
McHugh laughed at Casey’s remarks and said she had no comment to make on them. She is focusing her campaign on a more integrated approach to agriculture and food production, and has received about €11,000 on GoFundMe to support her bid for Europe.
Fianna Fail’s decision to run three candidates has had the undesired effect of pitting them against each other. Barry Cowen, Laois-Offaly TD, appears to be the most likely to win a seat ahead of Lisa Chambers, the Mayo-based senator, and Niall Blaney, the Donegal-based senator. But all the focus has been on the jibes between the candidates to date.
This blew up last Friday at the launch of Fianna Fail’s European election campaign in Dublin when Blaney rowed with his party leader, Micheál Martin, the tanaiste. Blaney accused the leadership of failing to support him — doubling down on press releases he had issued on the subject. Martin denied the accusation on camera and insisted he had canvassed with Blaney. “I’m not getting into a public discussion on the logistics of a campaign at a press conference,” a clearly irked Martin added.
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Meanwhile, Cowen’s declaration that he was the “lead” Fianna Fail candidate incensed Chambers, who called him “arrogant”; while Blaney criticised some of Cowen’s comments on policing the Irish border. Blaney has attacked Fianna Fail for “putting all its eggs in one basket”, with reference to Cowen, and has also targeted Martin for failing to demonstrate his support for the Donegal-based senator and the border region. “The party must … come in strongly behind me,” he said.
Despite Blaney’s appeal for more support, Cowen said he was still most likely to win a seat and that should be the party’s goal. “The polls would indicate that presently. I would be appealing to the membership to vote strategically to ensure we do win that seat,” he said.
On the internecine warfare, Cowen said: “You get into an election mode, people say things in the context of that that they mightn’t say ordinarily.”
In contrast to her coalition counterparts, Maria Walsh, Fine Gael MEP, has divided the constituency with her running mate, Nina Carberry, the former champion jockey. With her incumbency, Walsh is polling ahead. While Carberry’s name recognition in the region could give her the edge, questions are being asked about why Fine Gael seems reluctant to put up its celebrity candidate for media appearances and debates. In response, Carberry said: “I’ve done my fair share of live TV, radio … There’s plenty to come.”
Sinn Fein is likely to win a seat but whether it will go to the incumbent, Chris MacManus, who was co-opted to Matt Carthy’s seat, is not clear. MacManus has had more visibility over the course of the campaign but his running mate, Michelle Gildernew, a member of parliament for Fermanagh and
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Tyrone, who was agriculture and rural development minister from 2007 to 2011 in the north, may fare well with Midlands-North-West voters.
