Kate Forbes, the former Scottish finance secretary, and Jenny Gilruth, the education secretary, are being touted as the most likely candidates to replace Humza Yousaf as first minister should he be forced out of office.
One source said that Forbes, who last year narrowly lost out to Yousaf in the battle to replace Nicola Sturgeon, was “gearing up” for a campaign should the vacancy arise.
Her allies are also studying SNP rule books to avoid a potential “stitch-up” that could take the decision out of the hands of members and into votes from the Scottish parliament.
• Humza Yousaf ‘set to resign’ as Scotland’s first minister — follow live
“Like last time, Kate’s problem doesn’t come from the wider party membership, it comes from her parliamentary colleagues,” said a Forbes supporter. “There are members of the SNP’s Holyrood ranks who absolutely despise her and would refuse to work with her.”
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A source hostile to Forbes confirmed that she would not be given a clear run in the event of any contest, adding: “There will definitely be a challenger to Kate. It’s just a matter of who.”
Forbes has made a series of policy interventions over the past 12 months and recently criticised a lack of big-picture vision at Holyrood in comments that were widely interpreted as a dig at Yousaf. She was a persistent critic of both the Bute House agreement with the Greens and some of the policies that emerged as a result of the coalition deal.
However, she insists that she remains loyal to the first minister and on Saturday wrote a column for The National, the pro-independence newspaper, urging MSPs to back Yousaf in the no-confidence motions.
• Who will replace Humza Yousaf as Scottish first minister?
A source close to Forbes said: “Kate has made her support for the first minister clear. The dissolution of the Bute House agreement has given the SNP the opportunity to reset and refocus on the priorities of the Scottish people.
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“Delivering on alleviating poverty, providing more housing, taking bold steps to reform the NHS, and creating a clear path to net zero all need focus. Humza was democratically elected by our membership. As such, he has the support of Kate.”
Not everyone is so supportive of the first minister as recriminations fly between rival camps about how Yousaf ended the coalition.
“He should go,” said one SNP MP. “It’s done, save face, it’s over, just go.”
• Humza Yousaf ‘set to resign’ as Scotland’s first minister — follow live
Sources lay the decision to axe the coalition at the feet of Stephen Flynn, the SNP Westminster leader, who was in the Scottish parliament the day before Yousaf announced the agreement was finished.
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He has said publicly that the decision was made by Yousaf alone and is understood to have reiterated that in private discussions with friends.
Flynn is also seen as a potential future leader but would struggle in any immediate contest because he is elected to Westminster rather than Holyrood.
He has backed Yousaf to stay in post and sources said that after the backlash to the Greens sacking, which put the first minister’s future at risk after they vowed to support a no-confidence motion in his leadership, urged him not to quit.
“People are planning and manoeuvring but no one wants to be the first to move to put him out of his misery,” one SNP parliamentarian said of Yousaf.
“Kate is obviously phoning people, as is Jenny. The mood is fairly unanimous amongst everyone I’ve spoken to at Holyrood that Flynn has to be frozen out. He’s getting a lot of the blame for this,” they said.
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Gilruth has climbed the ranks within the Scottish government since being elected in 2016. She was a parliamentary aide to John Swinney, the former deputy first minister, who is still a close confidant, before being made culture minister by Sturgeon and then promoted to the challenging transport brief.
Yousaf made her education secretary in his first reshuffle and she pledged to use her background as a former teacher to improve conditions in Scotland’s schools amid a surge in classroom violence.
She is married to Kezia Dugdale, the former Scottish Labour leader, and has formed an effective cabinet alliance with three other senior ministers — Màiri McAllan, Shirley-Anne Somerville and Mairi Gougeon — who are all seen as being close to Sturgeon.
“Jenny is bright, capable and has proven she is on top of her brief,” said a supporter.
However, others are doubtful about her ability to step up to the top job. “I like her but she’s not there yet,” said one SNP parliamentarian.
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Neil Gray, the health secretary, is thought to be reluctant to stand despite encouragement from some in the party who believe he could be a unifying alternative to Forbes with minimal ties to Sturgeon despite the fact he ran Yousaf’s leadership campaign.
